EPT[M][N] Onegu is the Best Host Mafia Part 2 - Page 9
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Holyflare
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Holyflare
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Holyflare
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We have several candidates flagged for mafia at this point and I'll rank them from the most likely: 1. Sicklucker On August 10 2016 15:36 sicklucker wrote: in a sick world . if mafia has a rolecop and checked gb and saw he was a miller then mafia hf would make this play. would be pretty sick but way too unlikely. could also just be mafia doing it for the lulz his last mafia performance he didnt acualy try at all and let him self get lynched day 1 with no effort. but hes probably town boring On August 10 2016 15:37 sicklucker wrote: We should probably acualy lynch hf if gb flips miller. onegu especially likes to throw rolecops in his games I think... On August 10 2016 15:37 sicklucker wrote: REALLY UNLIKELY THO GUYS. just wanna throw that out there I got a notification that I was roleblocked last night (I don't know why we get notifications at all really but w/e) so I was JK'd at least or MAYBE mafia rb'd which is possibly what SL is alluding to here: On August 10 2016 16:34 sicklucker wrote: also shouldnt you have been like jailkeeped last night? vivax sure didnt save himself On August 10 2016 21:22 sicklucker wrote: if your town he is. I mean theres nothing I can do untill you flip either way. no ones not gonna lynch you today including me. But if you are town hes 100% a mafia rolecop. If thats true he saw I was right and is trying to set me up. or he could just be an idiot its hard to tell  On August 10 2016 21:24 sicklucker wrote: Like its acualy insane that hf believes I slipped about a second miller which is pretty fucking unluckly in a 13 player setup. The fact he thinks its almost a certainty rather then a slim chance like I think is interesting. are lawyers not good at probability? On August 10 2016 21:25 sicklucker wrote: either way this game will be fun if gb flips miller. a good old battle royale. If he flips mafia so boring On August 11 2016 13:59 sicklucker wrote: ya my role cop scenario acualy makes alot of sense when you think about thanks grack for proving im not crazy. is it likely? hell no I have always said this Now, think in your own heads, how unlikely was it that I was fake claiming? You guys are entirely in the dark, you did what was right, follow my lead and look for clues and links, SL on the other hand has referenced and foreshadowed (most importantly) GB flipping miller about 1000x throughout the day, not just flipping town, FLIPPING MILLER. That's the most important point of it all, mafia KNOWS I'm town and therefore if I have a red check and they know GB is town he MUST be a miller. This is why I found SL's reaction the most definite mindset of a mafia player because he KNEW ALL ALONG IT WAS HAPPENING. Mafia chance: 100% | ||
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30775 Posts
On August 12 2016 07:11 Damdred wrote: Oh well if tomorrow is nylon than game is over and it,makes even more sense for you as mafia yo do it. Always lynch hf even if it loses the game basically. fuck off don't be a pussy shit, I even warned you that tomorrow was mylo in my posts | ||
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Holyflare
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Holyflare
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Either way read my above post and talk to me, don't be a stubborn oaf. | ||
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Holyflare
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Holyflare
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Now, think for a second about leaps in logic. You are a towny, you see someone who looks relatively towny come out and claim cop on a guy that looks relatively scummy and you think, "oh ok cool," and move on with your day. At a stretch you have a niggling feeling that I'm mafia but in that case the flip sorts itself out and you can think about that later, for now you'll try and solve the game by process of Occam's razor. Say you are mafia and see me going after GB with a red. You know I am town and you know GB is town. Your options are I'm fake claiming and rescind it later or I'm the actual cop and GB HAS to be miller. These are your ONLY two options. Now, your job as a mafia is to throw suspicion on people, try and look towny and how do you do that? You try and make up scenarios. A wild towny scenario is that I'm just a mafia MAYBE trying to draw a cop claim and push the game to lylo. A wild mafia scenario when they have perfect information is that I must be a cop so the only way to throw suspicion on it is come up with a scenario that makes sense in that world, that I'm both mafia AND a rolecop AND tat I checked GB. Sicklucker has fallen for the classic overindulgence in mafia perfect information hook line and sinker. I realise this is hard to swallow after the events that unfolded but look at it this way: A) GB didn't flip miller at all, he was just a towny. B) The only way to come up with the theory of rolecop and miller is if both me and GB were town because then if I was cop GB would definitely be miller. I think the above is the most concrete proof I have that SL is mafia, he has foreshadowed it all day. The rest will follow in the next 72 hours, phase 2 was not completed it is ongoing. | ||
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Holyflare
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All I ask is that you think in two mindsets still and don't close off the thinking that I am town completely. It's the only hope left. | ||
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Holyflare
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I'm definitely disappointed and ashamed that he solely joined up to claim blue and afk but obviously part of it is my fault too. | ||
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Holyflare
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Holyflare
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Basically he's probably town unless you can say he's an intelligent mafia. Disformation is much the same reasoning for a town read but his posting comes across as smart. Yet, he filter dived previous games, did associations etc etc. I'd very likely say he was town too. | ||
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30775 Posts
On August 12 2016 08:35 Holyflare wrote: I have a bit of a block with Luna for the most part and it's definitely because I've never played with him but I tend to think that new mafia don't try and play the game or solve it when there's a red check afk day. Luna made a case against disfo based almost entirely on his association with GB. So the question is, is he smart enough /motivated to do that. Generally I would say new players arent. I also was hesitant to lynch him d1 because I saw some towny obstinace. Basically he's probably town unless you can say he's an intelligent mafia. Disformation is much the same reasoning for a town read but his posting comes across as smart. Yet, he filter dived previous games, did associations etc etc. I'd very likely say he was town too. An addendum to this though, while Luna's experience and actions lead to me thinking he's town some of the content about there being multiple mafia on wagons is very fucking suspicious and sends alarm bells evry time I hear it. | ||
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Holyflare
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On August 12 2016 08:44 Shapelog wrote: Eh I prob read them tomorrow. Getting off for tonight. Please stay for a couple of minutes. | ||
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Holyflare
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Regardless, I will help you with as much information as I can with regards to as many people as I can while I get sniped from the sidelines. | ||
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Holyflare
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Holyflare
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Damdred what are you confused about? Everything aligns with what I was thinking because nothing I have said is a lie. | ||
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Holyflare
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On August 12 2016 08:31 Holyflare wrote: Also my wild theory from d2 start is still possible. Difvaimvasvios. !remindme 24 hours | ||
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Holyflare
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Holyflare
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On August 12 2016 09:03 Damdred wrote: I'm not saying you are necessarily lying, though you have said several lies in the past 48 hours that are damming in itself. Firstly you say that Gb is easily the next lynch regardless of whether you fake the claim or,not. Basically this is true, Gb already had half the votes needed at the time (basically I was found to vote before the claim anyway). The better question is what's the point of the fake claim then? There is none Perhaps you were afk for most of the day but I outlined it before. It was a) a reaction test for GB because I was frustrated with him and you said you thought that he had towny moments d1 so I wanted to see what I did. I thought it would be hilarious after Himalayas to get him to fight me with his passion of calling me mafia but he didnt. B) it was also to get people to talk about the claim and solve the game around it because the information processed with perfect information as mafia is vastly different usually. This leads me to the big posts on SL (PLEASE PLEASE READ THEM) since it basically confirms him mafia if you accept a world where I'm town. It also lead to town reads on people like disfo, luna to an extent, I think shape was doing stuff but need to make sure. You can read the interactions between me and GB in the thread again, at every step of the cycle I pleaded with him to try and try but he just kept coming up with generic stuff and he ignored the sl thing entirely. Like GB thought I was fake claiming town or mafia and didn't fight me, I'm not used to that at all, ever. Lastly take the point of view from my last big post on sl now apply it to mid cycle. I see GB being pitiful and it hurts my heart to think he might be town. I know I'm town and I see sl call out the role cop and miller posts and I jump all over it. Why would this occur if I was mafia? It wouldn't make sense for me to think that way as mafia and gb even says that. Sl throws accusations at me in regards to this exact situation occuring all day where I'm a role cop but now his story has shifted. Read sl's filter for me please. | ||
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