[W][M] Newbie Mafia XXI - Page 4

Tumblewood

United States3709 Posts

June 04 2016 17:25 GMT

#652

I don't like this "detriment to the town even if he is a townie" sentiment... what is that supposed to mean? If he is a townie, he is not detrimental to the town unless he causes us to lynch him. What is he doing? "Sowing seeds of confusion?" He's not undermining anyone, confusing anyone, he's just playing the game. Either call him scum or call him town, but don't say you'd lynch him if he's town because that's totally backwards.

Tumblewood

United States3709 Posts

June 04 2016 17:30 GMT

#654

On June 05 2016 02:22 Jealous wrote:

Show nested quote +

That's unfortunate, but we should not ignore who voted for sqrtofneg1. Perhaps I'm forgetting something, but is there any justification forthcoming from kushmountains, QuickTwist, or Tumblewood for trying to lynch sqrtofneg1?

I want a policy-lynch today (basically, lynching someone who is AFK), because I think that the active players will make their alignments clear as the game progresses and that the inactive players will remain coinflips throughout the game.
Also, in newbie games, scum is lynched 16% of the time on D1 when random lynching would lynch scum 25% of the time (source: the database). I would rather lynch someone who is 50/50 inactive townie / scum than someone who is 50/50 active townie / scum.
Sqrtofneg1 is perhaps the worst of the lurkers to lynch now that he is getting a replacement, but I would like to lynch someone inactive today.

Tumblewood

United States3709 Posts

June 04 2016 17:35 GMT

#656

On June 05 2016 02:30 Jealous wrote:

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Let me be clear, I have the greatest suspicion of him being scum of anyone else in the thread so far, that is the main reason for my vote. However, my argument is that even if he flips town, then he was behaving in a way that is counterproductive to the town. Namely, he makes unsubstantiated reads, fake votes in this thread, and dodges questions. Thus, I''m doubly willing to take the chance on a Day 1 read and voted for him. Seems others feel the same way.

that's not counterproductive to the town though
oh my... have you heard of the player "Palmar"? most people regard him as one of the best players on the site, and he almost never substantiates his reads or answers questions on D1. This is his filter from the last game he played.
One can be helpful to town without backing up what one says.

Tumblewood

United States3709 Posts

June 04 2016 18:12 GMT

#665

On June 05 2016 03:06 Jealous wrote:

Show nested quote +

On June 05 2016 03:00 beentheredonethat wrote:

On June 05 2016 02:21 Jealous wrote:

On June 05 2016 02:08 beentheredonethat wrote:

On June 04 2016 19:53 Jealous wrote:

On June 04 2016 19:09 beentheredonethat wrote:
Also, following up on Tumblewood's post about QT and Jealous: if I simply follow the reads that I did so far without looking at Jealous' filter (which I haven't done yet), my logical conclusion should be that Jealous is scum. Here is my thought process about that:

1. I townread Tumblewood.
2. Tumblewood thinks that between QT and Jealous, one is scum.
3. I townread QT.

That makes Jealous scum (only if Tumblewood's thought is correct which, of course, is not granted). I am going to look at Jealous more detailed.

I'm not going to argue with what you've already admitted is highly conditional reasoning, but if your faith in Tumblewood is so great then you should check this post:

On June 04 2016 16:18 Tumblewood wrote:
ok yeah as I see it one of QT and Jealous has to be scum. they're both acting independently scummy (eager to read anything as scummy, tryhard tone, making mountains of molehills). I don't believe that they could both be town, although if they were I will mock D1 relentlessly in postgame. I also believe that they could not keep up this stupid bickering for so long as partners. I'm leaning toward QT at this point for refuting everything Jealous says and then townreading him for it (pretty shallow townread IMO, there's more to the game than just how much you write that's semi-productive). Jealous maybe, but I think my dislike of his tone biases my judgment. 6/10 would lynch QT D1 and if he flips town lynch Jealous D2
or we could plynch sqrt and let their alignments become more apparent over time.

In here he says that his suspicion lies on QuickTwist, which somewhat debunks your line of reasoning because your townreads would be only 50% accurate.

That plus your EBWOP is a great pick and shows exactly the problem I have with that scumread. My read is a bit too weak to justify a vote.

Well, so according to thekushmountains, MoosyDoosy "always plays like this" if town? Can anyone point me to some games that he played or at least confirm what thekushmountains said? Although, I'm not buying into it yet: while meta reads can be very potent, they are always a bit fragile since it's easily possible to "play for his own meta" to appear as the opposite alignment. Reading MoosyDoosy, no offense, feels like listening to the unordered thoughts of a child: open to distractions, not focusing on anything, whatever. From my experience, players that have such a playstyle mainly want to stay unreadable and are very unstable in terms of activity levels.

Well long story short, if MoosyDoosy is currently indeed playing to his town meta, it renders my arguments obsolete.

Going full circle, back to Jealous:

On June 04 2016 08:25 Jealous wrote:

On June 04 2016 08:21 Superbia wrote:
Jealous what alignment did you hope to get?

My expectations were mixed in that I simultaneously did not want to be important because I would then be under a lot of pressure to perform my duties up to a certain standard, but I also did want to have some sway in the outcome of the game beyond just words and analysis. I am satisfied with my role.

How about you?

This is a very good question from Superbia which solidifies my town read on him even further. However Jealous' answer feels really scummy to me, so I want to point that out.

IMHO, the purpose of this question is to be able to get a tone read on the questioned person. If the person admits that he's disappointed in his role or alignment, that information can be used to further analyse the posts that happened until now. So, imagine you're scum, and you're being asked that question. You don't know if there is a "right" (town indicative) or "wrong" answer, do you? Well, I don't. So you cannot answer that question clearly.

Jealous is not answering that question clearly. If I would have been asked that question, I'd have answered "scum" (or, tbh, "neutral"), because I prefer being the one being searched for instead of reading carefully through stuff and identifying/guessing inconsistencies, blatant lies, and busses. The only intention behind Jealous' answer could be to hide that he's actually glad that he rolled scum and that this is the reason of his high activity level.

Jealous, can you answer Superbia's question more clearly? What is your stance on Tictock and QuickTwist (there's a specific reason why I ask for this read which I'll tell after the answer)?

Sorry, forgot to answer your follow-up questions:

1. Tictock, I don't find him to be suspicious. Leaning towards townie but can't be certain.

2. QuickTwist, he's inconsistent, deceitful, and therefore he is either a) a player that is a detriment to the town even if he is a townie or b) scum. I voted to lynch him today.

Okay. My purpose in this question was basically to be able to compare a read you've given by voting to a read that cannot be really existing. Your stance on Tictock makes sense.

Still fine with a MoosyDoosy or a policy lynch. I caught some threads here where MoosyDoosy is playing a similar style as he does now.

However, if QT is a detriment to town, why isn't moosy? In your eyes, he should be, right? That's quite the inconsistency.

You never asked me for my read on MoosyDoosy so I couldn't have been inconsistent, but since we're on the topic I do find his posting habits to be wildly inconsistent themselves. He hasn't been very active despite answering what felt like the first 10 posts in Day 1 all in 1 megapost. The major difference between Moosy and QuickTwist is that QuickTwist, as I say time and again, has been dodgy and intentionally misleading town. That is why he takes priority over Moosy for today's lynch.

"actually I didn't say anything earlier because you didn't ask me, but that reminds me that I've been scumreading moosy for some time now"
no me gusta

Tumblewood

United States3709 Posts

June 04 2016 18:12 GMT

#666

claim: moosy is town
source: feels

Tumblewood

United States3709 Posts

June 04 2016 18:20 GMT

#670

On June 05 2016 03:18 MoosyDoosy wrote:
There was this one guy who said Quicktwist was town based on activity. What about killing him?

kush
no, I'm not killing kush D1
he's probably out on a date with his fiancee, Ms. Policy Lynch

Tumblewood

United States3709 Posts

June 04 2016 18:27 GMT

#674

On June 05 2016 03:23 Skynx wrote:
@tumble what makes you wanna plynch sqrt instead of fecalfeast who is yet to post a word since daypost.

no preference among the AFKs, not a lot you can tell from how someone doesn't post. sqrt is the most likely plynch to go through but ff is not a bad option either.

Tumblewood

United States3709 Posts

June 05 2016 02:50 GMT

#701

On June 05 2016 10:21 QuickTwist wrote:
OK, I feel like Jealous could be town or scum right now depending.

If he is being honest in saying I am detriment to Town then he is prolly town. If he is being dishonest, then he is just pushing an agenda.

For that reason we need to find out the way Jealous plays this game. IIRC no one has meta on him? This is a problem. So I suggest people try to catch him lying and see where that leads.

"if he's being honest he's town, if he's being dishonest he's scum"
no shit
what is your actual opinion on jealous

Tumblewood

United States3709 Posts

June 05 2016 15:12 GMT

#769

Reads that need to be explained:
QT scumreading Skynx and Tictock
Superbia townreading FF

Tumblewood

United States3709 Posts

June 05 2016 15:13 GMT

#770

And, QT, why is Jealous not in your town list?

Tumblewood

United States3709 Posts

June 05 2016 15:15 GMT

#771

Having trouble justifying not voting QT, but not feeling good about voting him, either.

Tumblewood

United States3709 Posts

June 05 2016 15:50 GMT

#777

On June 06 2016 00:48 QuickTwist wrote:

Show nested quote +

He's not in my "I will never vote" list because I keep waffling on him.

hm yes I see. in that case your town list is pretty solid. would still like to hear your scum reads.

Tumblewood

United States3709 Posts

June 05 2016 15:55 GMT

#779

On June 06 2016 00:50 QuickTwist wrote:

Show nested quote +

yes that is kinda the point. See if scum think they can lynch me that means that I am safe from NK. Since I claim PR, I think you can see how this will be beneficial.

this is a hard claim I assume?
scum totally can lynch you, as evidenced by your leading wagon. and you won't avoid NK if you claim PR. pls just act townie if you're town.