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TL Mafia LXXIV: Storm Mafia 3 - Page 4

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 24 2016 20:49 GMT
#752
On March 25 2016 05:04 LightningStrike wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 25 2016 04:55 Shapelog wrote:
On March 25 2016 04:15 LightningStrike wrote:
JAT, Koshi, and Shape can I have your reads atm please?

It is early in the game, so nothing really is solid solid other than a few people. Moved some people up and down on this list.


Slam -> I believe his claim. Also a day 1 shot only vig for scum kinda seems dumb. Even if he is lying about the day 1 thing, day vig for scum is weird. Plus i like bread.
Rik -> most likely town, i felt that the plan wasn't great and the hunting a bit weird. But I still find him townie.

SL ->
Town lean because he feels more like SL from Devil than from Cell. TBH i haven't really dive him so it really is pure meta. I get around to it one of these days.
Vivax -> Town lean


Some Nulls/unsure:
Super: Kinda move down because i need to read his filter passed the gum lynch points. I remember something about weird reads from him. I still like the points i made b4 about him quite possible being town. Just a dive would make me feel more confident.
Kumuni, i kinda want to put him the town section, because i find good things in him. But i like to wait for him to come back and post some more. Honorable town lean i guess? Nah Town lean, i feel like even with some lingering sus. on him i can give him a town lean. No, Making up my mind that i do want him to post more and flesh out other reads.
Koshi: I just don't feel sure on him. idk why tbh. Techically, everything he has done so far makes me want to town read him. But i don't. His Slam thing is a bit weird. But for sure, wouldn't lynch today.
LS:I do not think LS is scum, but i really cannot remember much of him. I know about the scum read -> town lean on gum but i forgot what he has done.


Sus. people IMO

Rsoul: I can't understand her, and noone explained anything to me. i do not see how people town read 3 nulls, a p lynch, and 2 town reads. She did than go on and scum read tumble and rik(?) Now, i might be just scum reading her because her posts wants my brain cells to jump into a woodchip grinder and let the blood flow free.
She kinda also subtracted it seems from tumble since she perfered a slam/rik lynch. Kinda a bit opportunistic.
Tumble: Mostly because he was here and just defended himself instead of doing anything. Currectly still waiting for answers about the 2 hour gap and stuff. He seems a bit fluster too. Thought, he is prob. the weakest one here.

Doubt these 2 are scum together tbh.



Sub division, people who i do not mind lynching.
VA: Posted something after the last post about the house of chuz. idk, he is pretty mellow. None of his posts have made me go "this guy is town"

OWS: Understand this guy might actually be busy, but posted 3 posts of value. 1 scum reading Rik for blue hunting (fair because i did so early on too) 1 town reading SL, and one supporting a Plynch. Prob. should move him into the sub division but i kinda expect more from him. Except from the Plynch though, he did come to the same conclusion i did about SL and Rik early on. Fuck it i move this guy to the sub division till he actually posts more.

Mr.Stutter: Here because i want him to post things to get a read on him.

Rels: I suck at reading Rels, All i ever want to do is scum read the living jesus out of him. half his filter was talk about slam, but when sl talked about slam, gloves were off. Like to flesh this read out and prob. dive a bit

Anyone who does not post and steal from the post jar.


People i am currently investigating

Tubesock: was diving filter when you called. Ranked Rels and JAT higher than Vivax. Kinda odd to me since Rels really has done nothing IMO to be higher up on the town list than Vivax. No offense to Rels (or JAT for that matter) but Vivax is tryharding and actually trying to solve this game. idk, maybe i am just being bias because i think vivax is town.

JAT: Haven't dive him at all. Interacts i saw in thread were semi-aggressive, but i remember him being a aggressive person from outlaw QT.

Damdred haven't dive yet. interactions with him feel promising though.

Elaborate on sicklucker please I honestly didn't care for his stuff so far atm.


holy shit you have a read on me for the first time in after 30 games played together?
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 24 2016 20:51 GMT
#753
meta note. I have played with ls a ton and hes put me in the "null" catogory in every single one saying he cant read me. So him saying hes "not sure about me" or having any opinion on me at all is so out of his meta that im acualy 80%> sure hes scum after that comment
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 24 2016 20:52 GMT
#755
Man I want to lynch so many people I cant decide
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 24 2016 20:54 GMT
#758
no I understand but he came out and basicly said "why is sl a town read for you?"

Like why would he do this if he cant read me? It makes no sense. He would go sure ok i Have no idea thats what a town ls would do
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 24 2016 22:41 GMT
#857
On March 25 2016 06:30 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 25 2016 06:29 LightningStrike wrote:
On March 25 2016 06:25 Rels wrote:
So Slam didn't have any stupid "you must shoot D1" rule apparently, or he would have claimed it.
So he's scum. There is NO reason to shoot someone hours into D1. Especially with the number of lurkers.
##Vote Alakaslam

What would scum!Slam benefit from shooting Town!Gun so early? I don't see much benefit at all from scum!Slam atm.

This does NOT matter. What matters is there was no town motivation to day KP so early. But since he had to shoot D1 it could make sense maybe. Still weird he didn't shoot an inactive IMO but not confirmed scum.


er hearing slams response im more suspect. he had over 38 more hours to make a decision..
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 24 2016 22:46 GMT
#862
On March 25 2016 06:57 ritoky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 25 2016 06:38 Rels wrote:
ritoky could you lay out exactly what town benefits you were going for with your plan ?


i spelled it out multiple times, but sure.

i am vt, i know nothing about the setup since it is closed. i have been in closed setups that are basically the same as a normal game and closed setups with 20 players, 19 of which are roles or mafia. i wanted to gauge the nature of how many PRs were in the game while locating all the VTs and narrowing down my potential mafia greatly.

so i angle shot using the name of the role, assuming all town roles are named the same thing and that mafia either didn't get fake role pms or were too careless to reference them and understand what i was doing before it was already too late. the goal was to utilize the picture of the expedition, have people understand it, realize expedition was also in their role pm, and start forming a coalition of townies who understood we were all town based on the understanding of the expedition. from there you have a large block of people who identify eachother as near lock town and there is a vast amount of control over the day phase because of it as well as a smaller pool of people for potentially mafia. it forces mafia into an awkward spot where they have to choose to not PR hunt and leave PRs alive thus costing them a great deal or leave this large block of semi-confirmed townies alive and concede a ton of day phase control. the mafia lose something large either way.

i think it is a pretty well devised plan, apparently i am alone.


we know this but since theres no point hiding it anymore can you summarize what this told you preferably without telling the thread the non obvious vts
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 24 2016 22:49 GMT
#867
On March 25 2016 07:01 ritoky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 25 2016 06:58 Rels wrote:
On March 25 2016 06:57 ritoky wrote:
On March 25 2016 06:38 Rels wrote:
ritoky could you lay out exactly what town benefits you were going for with your plan ?


i spelled it out multiple times, but sure.

i am vt, i know nothing about the setup since it is closed. i have been in closed setups that are basically the same as a normal game and closed setups with 20 players, 19 of which are roles or mafia. i wanted to gauge the nature of how many PRs were in the game while locating all the VTs and narrowing down my potential mafia greatly.

so i angle shot using the name of the role, assuming all town roles are named the same thing and that mafia either didn't get fake role pms or were too careless to reference them and understand what i was doing before it was already too late. the goal was to utilize the picture of the expedition, have people understand it, realize expedition was also in their role pm, and start forming a coalition of townies who understood we were all town based on the understanding of the expedition. from there you have a large block of people who identify eachother as near lock town and there is a vast amount of control over the day phase because of it as well as a smaller pool of people for potentially mafia. it forces mafia into an awkward spot where they have to choose to not PR hunt and leave PRs alive thus costing them a great deal or leave this large block of semi-confirmed townies alive and concede a ton of day phase control. the mafia lose something large either way.

i think it is a pretty well devised plan, apparently i am alone.

So you got no confirmed townie out of it ?


i mean on some level i confirmed myself as town, which is cool; but overall the execution was bad and all i felt i got from it was that superbia might be VT, damd felt red or blue, slam wasn't vt, and SL pocketed me. the results were bad, but the plan was not.


ya you outed more vts then that not even gonna elaborate tho
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 24 2016 22:55 GMT
#874
On March 25 2016 07:14 Koshi wrote:
I won't lie.
ritoky is mafia.


i do think ritoky likes to bluehunt and is the kind of person who loves to sacrifice himself as mafia for the greater good. Like gb he often tunnels this and it turns out to be negative for his mafia team alot of the time.

But I dont think a mafia would come up with this premeditated plan. Also from my experience very few hosts give fakeclaims pre or at the start of the game. They typically give them apon request. I cant think of any games where fakeclaims are given at the start of a scum qt. Maybe some hosted by artanis

So I do think for dirty bad meta reasons that ritoky is town in this spot
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 24 2016 23:05 GMT
#886
On March 25 2016 07:59 justanothertownie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 25 2016 07:57 Shapelog wrote:
On March 25 2016 07:33 Kurumi wrote:
On March 25 2016 07:26 ritoky wrote:
On March 25 2016 07:24 Kurumi wrote:
Wait why 8?


cuz i picked a random fucking large number


Is it really that huge? 21 players total. 4 probably Mafia. 17 players left. 8 players believe that they are Town. You still have 9 Townies not sharing that sentiment. That's excluding possible 3rd party shenanigans and different Mafia size (I could see it being 5 even). It does not seem that huge. Because it is 8 players analysing 13 players, you are much more likely to down or out a blue. This would probably result in last minute switch shenanigans and disorder. This would lead to Mafia having even more information. In that 8, you could have three Mafia who figured out that it is a good idea to get on that Ford Wave and now you have 5 townies believing strongly that 3 players are Townie, but are actually Mafia. Mafia creates lynch after lynch, blue blood is the last sight of the day, blue blood is the first sight of the day and since this setup is about being careful, I don't see it being good.

Wait hold on. I am going to use this 8 logic here because i am confused now.
+ Show Spoiler +
So Best case would turn it into 8 v 13 right? Let say about 5 roles are 3rd party/mafia So 8 v 8 v 5.....
Mafia would have some kinda of KP so they would shot into the 8 vt;s or whatever, let say 3rd is a kill role.
So each night 2 of the confirm townies die, or they shot into the suspect pool.
The 8 blue roles would then check eachother/use their power on the other people (assuming they have a power). Well, Instantly, a tracker/watcher would be fuck over because any person they check would go somewhere. The only way to get a good track is to track to a death. All the other ones are useless because they can't determine anything. They only have a 2/25 chance (N1) of catching scum. And they can still be vig technically.

But lets say it was 10 or something 10 v 11 -> 10 vs 6 vs 5, Blue roles have to cover less people. But that is still 10 other people a invest blue role has to either check or track. Not to mention that any of the 10 vt's could be shot theoretically (scum/3rd party killer would pick high value targets) And this is not meationing if the roles are not trackable or watchable.

Then Physiologically, some invest blue roles might check the vt to make sure they are vt's. thus wasting a check.

I guess the protection and vet roles would be fine/in a better spot.

idk about what would happen if you than make everyone out of the circle claim.

Eh it not that great when i look at it like this.

Are you 2 seriously arguing over the completely irrelevant math of a number ritoky obviously just made up to prove his point? Wtf.



ROFL
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 24 2016 23:10 GMT
#895
Does anyone have links to the setups of previous storm games btw
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 24 2016 23:20 GMT
#902
gumshoe dying and being green is pretty close to a random accurance tho. Focusing on that and ritoky is how scum gets to hide.

But if you wanna talk about it who voted him after me? and do you think they were just voting for 90% reactions like me or do you seriously think they thought gumdrop would be lynched
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 25 2016 05:39 GMT
#962
because they are probably partners!
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 25 2016 15:32 GMT
#1083
On March 25 2016 15:40 sandroba wrote:
On page 13 and have a good town read on gumshoe and superbia. Leaning town on ls. Null on damdred and ritoky, don't know what to make of kurumi, but if you put a gun to my head I would probably say it's more likely he is town. A bit iffy on shapelog, something about how he is focusing on things that don't matter imo maybe.
Still think sicklucker is probably our best bet so far.


let the record show sandroba is the only person on TL net ever to get me mislynched ever.... And it was a really stupid spot where he shouldnt have gotten away with it in some cell game
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 25 2016 15:34 GMT
#1087
also sandro making reads before reading more then 1/30th of the thread is ridiculous. I havent cuaght up yet either but theres no way he has the intention of reading much of it. Prediction form page 49 is he flakes out after a few more posts
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 25 2016 15:40 GMT
#1092
ah sandros probably town. Kinda sad he started posting bad reads 5 pages into the game after being 50 pages behind. but I do somethiing similiar just ALOT ALOT less behind
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 25 2016 15:44 GMT
#1096
On March 25 2016 23:05 rsoultin wrote:
quite frankly, y'all are wasting time even discussing me today ^^

and sand is probably town, which is good i suppose but also makes his read on me especially annoying given it consists of

- her scumread she should be reading town (i'm gonna laugh so hard at you scrubs when i'm dead and rit wins the game)
and
- she didn't react to slam (??? um, what?)

like i know you think i'm the scum god after carnival, sandy, but really? lol >< that's pretty pathetic

like, seriously, i really want to lynch scum!rit here or at the very least have someone actually discuss with me why i'm wrong (so i can show you the light >>)...also down for lynching tumble or shape...wouldn't protest slam

the reason i was asking him about his role is it seemed like he couldn't change his shot once submitted given his posting...and that seemed like a 3rd party type role to me rather than a town one cause what sort of bastard host locks in your shot on d1? i honestly don't think he's scum either, cause the enthusiasm resembled more his play in greymist's game lol >< which was what i was referring to in my first reads post

if he's 3rd party (which seems likely given this "i don't know") bit coupled with his other posts, he's not a bad lynch either

i'd prefer scum though

can we lynch rit now? :/


ALong with everything else succmmy about her I think this fake cockyness is her scum trait. Shes sort of cocky as town but in another way I think. shes stupidly confident in her reads not her being a bad lynch. I dont even know what her reads are here
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 25 2016 15:51 GMT
#1106
On March 25 2016 23:36 rsoultin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 25 2016 23:34 Damdred wrote:
On March 25 2016 23:31 rsoultin wrote:
On March 25 2016 23:13 Damdred wrote:
Besides rit who RS ?


i'd bother to answer this if i hadn't already ^^


You've ignored me all game which is troublesome to say the least especially since you light scum read me earlier <<


i still think you're probably 3p (was thinking maybe even scum earlier, but saw something that makes me think otherwise) and so i'm not terribly interested in you tbh lol >< i could say the same thing about you avoiding me

how long are you planning on hiding your reads?


I think the only people who would truly think someone is 3p is a mafia in an open setup. A town would just think they are mafia and asume there is no 3rd party. but a mafia would see dandred playing weird look at their qt and see hes not in said qt. Knowing dandreds not mafia that mafia would then know that said dandred is third party.
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 25 2016 15:55 GMT
#1108
On March 26 2016 00:24 rsoultin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2016 00:19 LightningStrike wrote:
Honestly I feeling this might be town Tina it just that she been sick and I can confirm she was sick when I last saw in real life.
Anyways about Damdred: Why do you think that Damdred is underwhelming Tina? I know me and him just lpayed a good scum game together.


i'm not sick lol ><

i'm just back in school. tues and thurs are my heavy days and i'm not sure why you're making excuses for me anyway, tbh -_-

damdy just is very sideline which isn't completely outside his town wheelhouse, tbh, but i'm just not getting the clicks i usually do when we're both reading the same game...with a few exceptions here and there like our read on you

like it's an itch that he's too disinterested that could also be because he's been sick or it's just a large game, but that's why i thought maybe 3rd party...i'm not actually seeing anything that goes counter to his usual mindset in a game (which would have me riding him like rit) so def not lynching him today


if your town hes trying to pocket you with his cuteness
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 25 2016 15:58 GMT
#1110
On March 26 2016 00:46 rsoultin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2016 00:44 sicklucker wrote:
On March 25 2016 23:05 rsoultin wrote:
quite frankly, y'all are wasting time even discussing me today ^^

and sand is probably town, which is good i suppose but also makes his read on me especially annoying given it consists of

- her scumread she should be reading town (i'm gonna laugh so hard at you scrubs when i'm dead and rit wins the game)
and
- she didn't react to slam (??? um, what?)

like i know you think i'm the scum god after carnival, sandy, but really? lol >< that's pretty pathetic

like, seriously, i really want to lynch scum!rit here or at the very least have someone actually discuss with me why i'm wrong (so i can show you the light >>)...also down for lynching tumble or shape...wouldn't protest slam

the reason i was asking him about his role is it seemed like he couldn't change his shot once submitted given his posting...and that seemed like a 3rd party type role to me rather than a town one cause what sort of bastard host locks in your shot on d1? i honestly don't think he's scum either, cause the enthusiasm resembled more his play in greymist's game lol >< which was what i was referring to in my first reads post

if he's 3rd party (which seems likely given this "i don't know") bit coupled with his other posts, he's not a bad lynch either

i'd prefer scum though

can we lynch rit now? :/


ALong with everything else succmmy about her I think this fake cockyness is her scum trait. Shes sort of cocky as town but in another way I think. shes stupidly confident in her reads not her being a bad lynch. I dont even know what her reads are here


reading helps ^^


w/e i have a green check on ritoky + Show Spoiler +
maybe
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 25 2016 15:59 GMT
#1111
On March 26 2016 00:49 LightningStrike wrote:
List of Town that I got from my filter:
Gumshoe: Flipped plus I was startign to get town vibes from him after some interactions with him.
Superbia: Despite falling off he still was pretty tryhard trying to solve the game.
JAT: Meta he pointing smart things and dumb things and exlpains why they are dumb or smart.
Koshi: Angry Koshi is Town Koshi from experience with him.
Damdred: Seems okay content wise not lynching him Day 1 just hope he would produce even townier rainbows.
Tina(rsoultin if people need her TL name): Guts and feeling says town on her tone.
Shape: Little spammy town maybe idk he kinda weird now that he played as scum but it feels innocent?
Slam: If I wrong on any of my townreads it's slam and he would probably be 3rd Party due to his role.
List of Null:
Lurkers: Duh although stutters had 1 post and not returned after that post.
sicklucker: Rip ability to read him.


ahhh..? did you just call me town? im shocked
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