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TL Mafia LXXIV: Storm Mafia 3 - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
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VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
March 30 2016 00:29 GMT
#3272
what exactly is little time invested? because besides easter I watch the game a lot I just don't post that much.

Anyways you guys reminded me that JAT dying is a weird kill because he was partly scumread. Have to also go back and look tomorrow morning who had JAT as a confident town read still, that will help find mafia.
I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
March 30 2016 01:00 GMT
#3290
just seems like an OMGUS disguised as a case tbh. I don't really have anything to say beyond that since I dont think you're scum anymore.
I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
March 30 2016 01:12 GMT
#3297
On March 30 2016 10:08 sandroba wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 30 2016 10:00 VayneAuthority wrote:
just seems like an OMGUS disguised as a case tbh. I don't really have anything to say beyond that since I dont think you're scum anymore.

I think you said came to the realisation assossiation reads were bad this game twice by now. I'm hoping there is something of substance behind your change of read.


Because of the rsoultin/tictock lynch. I did explain it in my filter :O its one of the things i said i have to check tomorrow morning, that and the JAT lovers
I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
March 30 2016 14:13 GMT
#3440
so as far as the voting analysis/timing of the votes this is what I got.

Tumblewood - Votes rsoultin when he could have voted koshi instead to fight his wagon. 90% town basically, would be a super weird play if he wasnt, so bad its good territory.

Kurumi - On the flip side, he looks terrible from this perspective. He drops his vote on koshi and pretty much peaces out. Doesn't have any interest in the rest of the wagons, 2 of which are confirmed scum. Would explain a lot where some of mafia's KP was day 1 too.

Shapelog - looks pretty good. Votes rsoultin during the tumble wagon gaining speed and then switches to tictock when it is not a throwaway/bus vote. 95% town

Sicklurker - Does the same thing as Kurumi pretty much, ignores all other wagons drops a vote on koshi and thats it. It's unlikely both sicklurker and kurumi is scum but one 100% is.

Damdred/Obi - Pretty much the same person in terms of day 2 voting. They both follow early on the tumble wagon and then vote tictock pretty super late when it would probably be rsoultin/tictock lynch anyway. Hard to know what to make of it. Probably one scum here as well although less confident.

LS/Rels - legit wait to the last second to vote tictock and waited to see how the wagons played out, pretty obvious who I think is more town here. I really wouldnt be surprised at LS being scum , is there any case on why he's town?

So mafia - Kurumi, damdred/obi, LS.


makes sense numbers wise as well.

Now going to look at who thought JAT was super townie, probably gonna take a while

I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
March 30 2016 14:22 GMT
#3445
On March 30 2016 23:19 Rels wrote:
VA these reads are all based on voting right, and could change when you add your own analysis of the game ?


Well the only other analysis im going to do is JAT dying. Voting/NKs are what I do. I would reconsider if the results were weird but theres nothing strange about what the votes show.
I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
March 30 2016 14:33 GMT
#3452
On March 30 2016 23:23 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 30 2016 23:22 VayneAuthority wrote:
On March 30 2016 23:19 Rels wrote:
VA these reads are all based on voting right, and could change when you add your own analysis of the game ?


Well the only other analysis im going to do is JAT dying. Voting/NKs are what I do. I would reconsider if the results were weird but theres nothing strange about what the votes show.

You are missing some names btw. ritoky, scott, koshi. All town?


yes, not up for lynch atm
I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
March 30 2016 14:42 GMT
#3455
On March 30 2016 23:27 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 30 2016 23:22 VayneAuthority wrote:
On March 30 2016 23:19 Rels wrote:
VA these reads are all based on voting right, and could change when you add your own analysis of the game ?


Well the only other analysis im going to do is JAT dying. Voting/NKs are what I do. I would reconsider if the results were weird but theres nothing strange about what the votes show.

OK. This team could be true. Why is it unlikely both SL and Kurumi is scum ?


I thought that kurumi shot SL but he shot koshi so disregard that.

That would mean mafia KP for day 1 was

Sicklurker faction shot
koshi vig shot

eh
I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
March 30 2016 14:46 GMT
#3458
That makes way more sense considering they shot JAT again today, so damdred is probably town. I think Kurumi is the correct lynch here
I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
March 30 2016 14:52 GMT
#3461
If anyone has any doubt, read this post.

On March 25 2016 07:33 Kurumi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 25 2016 07:26 ritoky wrote:
On March 25 2016 07:24 Kurumi wrote:
Wait why 8?


cuz i picked a random fucking large number


Is it really that huge? 21 players total. 4 probably Mafia. 17 players left. 8 players believe that they are Town. You still have 9 Townies not sharing that sentiment. That's excluding possible 3rd party shenanigans and different Mafia size (I could see it being 5 even). It does not seem that huge. Because it is 8 players analysing 13 players, you are much more likely to down or out a blue. This would probably result in last minute switch shenanigans and disorder. This would lead to Mafia having even more information. In that 8, you could have three Mafia who figured out that it is a good idea to get on that Ford Wave and now you have 5 townies believing strongly that 3 players are Townie, but are actually Mafia. Mafia creates lynch after lynch, blue blood is the last sight of the day, blue blood is the first sight of the day and since this setup is about being careful, I don't see it being good.

I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
March 30 2016 14:56 GMT
#3464
I disagree, pretty much a textbook mafia post about the setup. It would also explain his super weird reads now because he was trying to make his scumteam half town/half mafia members.
I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
March 30 2016 14:58 GMT
#3467
On March 30 2016 23:58 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 30 2016 23:56 VayneAuthority wrote:
I disagree, pretty much a textbook mafia post about the setup. It would also explain his super weird reads now because he was trying to make his scumteam half town/half mafia members.

But who shot rsoultin then? Come on.


Kurumi didnt, he said he lost his bullet from shooting you and only had 1 bullet.
I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
March 30 2016 14:59 GMT
#3468
We literally know nothing about the engineers since it all came from scum, my best guess is her role somehow killed her but I have no idea.
I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
March 30 2016 15:08 GMT
#3479
On March 31 2016 00:07 Damdred wrote:
I just don't get it, why are decent players acting like fools. The easiest answer is that kurm lied about rb making him lose his bullet...


easy for you to say when you are a PR. This setup is insanely confusing as regular town
I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
March 30 2016 15:11 GMT
#3483
yea so fuck you damdred and koshi.
I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
March 30 2016 15:14 GMT
#3489
On March 31 2016 00:11 sandroba wrote:
Even if kurumi comes in and says he didn't shoot rsoultin I'm still not lynching him over VA. Kurumi is historically d1 lynch bait and both rsoul AND TT called him scum multiple times and were trying to push a lynch on him. No way this guy dies before the barely mentioned straw grasping VA.


The only reason you dont want him to die is because you guys are probably opposite roles like rsoultin/stutters.

I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
March 30 2016 15:16 GMT
#3494
On March 31 2016 00:15 Kurumi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 31 2016 00:11 sandroba wrote:
Even if kurumi comes in and says he didn't shoot rsoultin I'm still not lynching him over VA. Kurumi is historically d1 lynch bait and both rsoul AND TT called him scum multiple times and were trying to push a lynch on him. No way this guy dies before the barely mentioned straw grasping VA.


This guy gets it. That's why I was so adamant on people who were attacking me D1 and then carried on this behaviour onto D2. I've been pushed from every direction and really no one defended me seriously (if ever based on how I played, disregarding what I've done with my shot).


You realize though if you're town that sandroba is most likely scum?
I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
March 30 2016 15:37 GMT
#3516
eh whatever kurumi or sandroba is scum, lynching outside them is idiocy but im sure it will happen
I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
March 30 2016 16:18 GMT
#3535
On March 31 2016 01:14 Damdred wrote:
Jat was most likely killed because when I revealed he would be confirmed town basically meh


But from what we understand, JAT was shot day 1 as well so that's clearly not the case. they've been trying to kill him for awhile
I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
March 30 2016 17:53 GMT
#3554
eh I cant decide between kurumi and sandroba who is scum, both weird filters looking back and they both voted koshi and fucked off day 2. Hard to tell. Don't think it matters though since we are doing good so far. Just have to make sure they both die.
I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
March 30 2016 17:54 GMT
#3556
On March 31 2016 01:37 Koshi wrote:
Slam used his shot terribly. Imagine how it could be used...

Theb on top of that town can kill 2 more people if they still misslynch d1??

That is 4 kills town can do before d2.

INSANE. I don't believe it.



And VA fascinates me.


What do you mean?

I'm glad you realized though that the actions make zero sense and there is mafia there.
I come in for the scraps
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