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Newbie Student Mafia XX - Page 2

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
April 06 2016 22:08 GMT
#349
I'm unconvinced by the case on LS, and skeptical of the case on RB (could easily just be a newbie who's not used to this). Boxerfred is a sensible if shallow case... I'm not feeling great about it, but there's really nothing better going on right now.
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
April 06 2016 22:16 GMT
#353
I don't understand this case for GB... It's because he did something to stir discussion but didn't make a play on it? I'm just not seeing very much there.
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
April 06 2016 22:25 GMT
#359
On April 07 2016 07:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 07 2016 07:16 Tumblewood wrote:
I don't understand this case for GB... It's because he did something to stir discussion but didn't make a play on it? I'm just not seeing very much there.

Basically for me it's:
-Pretend to be playing along with my discussion starter
-Does fuck all after
-Comes back to the thread with reads, never did anything with said discussion starter
-Calls boxerfred scum citing that he usually plays as scum and doesn't as town when he hasn't really done much at all yet. Also he hasn't dropped the Damdred read at all unlike what GB said.

Basically he hasn't followed up on what he said he was doing and his read on BF seems made up.

Damn, looked back at that original BF read... I understand the read progression part, but "usually more useless as town" is not a reason for a read ever.
I feel a lot stronger about this than boxerfred. ##Vote GB
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
April 06 2016 22:52 GMT
#389
On April 07 2016 07:47 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Okay I'm back.
Who's up for shenannies?

I assume you mean Fidei? I'd be up for shenannies if I thought they would work, but Fidei is a dice roll at best.
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
April 07 2016 14:37 GMT
#447
@Goss: You said at the start of the night phase that we needed to look at the flips and that you would post something in an hour or so... Why didn't you post anything?
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
April 07 2016 14:55 GMT
#449
On April 07 2016 23:42 Fidei86 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 07 2016 23:37 Tumblewood wrote:
@Goss: You said at the start of the night phase that we needed to look at the flips and that you would post something in an hour or so... Why didn't you post anything?

Hey!
Rather than prodding a semi-inactive, why not give your thoughts on the WOTs I just posted. I call you out for being Mafia. I'd expect you to have at least something to say on it!

Am I just going to not pressure people because they're not active?
And sure, I'll comment on your WoTs. I can dig Goss as mafia, but only because of his last post. Your read on me... I totally see why you would think that, but you're wrong. I doubt your Artanis read (didn't you say yesterday that based on the recent interactions he, RB and I were town? What happened to that?), and it seems you do too and it's just an "I need a third scum." I need to go but your RB read is way confident for what we've seen of him.
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
April 07 2016 17:34 GMT
#454
On April 07 2016 22:09 Fidei86 wrote:
Okay, it took my whole lunch break, but I have read through the thread. I'll post my entire notes at the bottom, as I don't have time to fully post before I have to start working again.

The short is that I'm pretty sure Tumbleweed and Gossemerr are mafia.

MAFIA

Gossemerr's posts are pretty mediocre. I hate his read on Race at #287 and his last post at #390 was classic "let's see what happens". As far as I can see, he hasn't done anything useful.

Tumbleweed's entire filter can be summarised as follows: "this person might be mafia, but I'm not sure...". This is classic mafia play. It's so tentative, it's like me every time I try and kiss a girl on a third date.

My guess for third mafia is Artanis. I agree with everything Damdred said about Artanis being vocal and yet pointless at the same time. HOWEVER, I'm less sure on this because I'm not sure I see the value in a mafia Artanis leading a shennany on to me so late.

NULL BECAUSE TERRIBLE - WOULD LYNCH

2) Kuragari42
3) Spikasaur

TOWN PILE

Race Bannon is town. Ride or die. His post at #208 was spot on viz boxer. His comment at #265 on Artanis was spot on. He's been active and I've agreed with most of what he's said.

DYH is town. He pressured newbies to post early [#180], and I loved his early read on Tumblewood.

I think CHODGE is probably also town as well.

I'm leaning town on Damdred and GB, but I'm much more certain about Damdred than GB. GB has pretty much just shit-posted / over-thought things. But a lot of people have been pushing him. Damdred mod-confirmed me (accurately!) plus I feel the townie vibes generally.

LIGHTNING STRIKE PILE

At this point I have demonstrated that I can't even read LS when I'm scum. He and I speak totally different mafia languages. I would definitely vote to lynch him, but I say that every game and I always think I'm right on it.

====================================================

The Newblood
1) Race Bannon
#208 early town read on boxer from a newbie, when lots of other people posting, this guy is 100% town
#265 comments on Artanis' activity *pops champagne cork*
#294 this is so close to the bone, it has to be townie

2) Kuragari42
Is this guy playing?
#398 doesn't like lynches

3) Spikasaur
#204-#205 "hello"
#214 All filler no killer.
#390 switches to me for literally zero reason

4) Gossemerr
#287 read on Race Bannon. Hmmmm. reasoning is okay but something not quite right about it.
#350 okay prevarication read
#433 this is garbage "let's see what happens"

5) Fidei86 hehe

6) DoYouHas
I like him pressuring Newbies to post. [#180]
I like his read on Tumblewood (which I apparently missed in my first read through)

The Slightly old Blood

7) LightningStrike
#211 Lots of pressuring.
#264 town on CHodge, and I think this is townie

8) Artanis[xp]
This guy is mafia with Tumblewood [#260]
And his early vote on GB is garbage.
Starts shennanies on me. Why? I'm confused.

9) Damdred
#284 I think this is town Damdred. Also I think he switched off me because he knew my obvious town tells.
#298 pings artanis, likes racer, pings GB. Town.

10) boxerfred
RIP

11) CHodge
#217-#219 wtf. LS and RaceBannon lynches? And Tumblewood?
#242 this town read on Goss is garbage but also towny.
Tons of reads early.
#251 This scum read on GB makes a ton of sense.

12) Tumblewood
#193 Gathering reactions a good thing?
#197 AHHHHH over analysis, leading into a dead-end of nothingness without conclusions.
#253 Town points to CH for reads, but no reads himself
#291 more null reads *yawn*
#349 okay town points for this not being sure, reads more genuine

13) GlowingBear
#313 anyone scum reading BF gets mafia points, but I think this is more just GB overthinking things.

Going to go through each of the people you have listed now that I have time.
1) You're drawing a super confident townread out of thin air here. #208 spot on? This was #208:
On April 05 2016 22:13 Race Bannon wrote:
Leaning town on boxer and GlowingBear for their confident opening.
#294 was also way unimpressive for a "has to be townie" comment. RB is also guilty of first-degree dodging questions. I think there is one scum among you and RB because of how strong and unfounded this townread is.
2) "could lynch because inactive" meh
3) ^
4) I agree with the scumread on Gossemerr, but only because of this post:
On April 07 2016 10:55 Gossemerr wrote:
OK so that last minute flip fest was interesting. Going to read and post my thoughts in a bit. I think we need to look at who flipped and why.
This post is so bad. It says nothing of value but looks like activity at first glance, except he never even followed up on what he said. It seems that that was not the main basis of your read.
5) You are not cleared in my mind
6) You have a throwaway read on him and so do I
7) ^
8) I think your reaction to his shenanny on you was weird. Seems like you'd find that scummy and not townie.
9) Town because mindmeld... I can buy it.
11) Do you have a conclusion to draw from having a ton of reads early? I found it townie because he wasn't afraid to be 'out there'.
12) null reads = scum... fair enough, that's how I played in Newbies and Vets (but then, I replaced in for MyLo and had a partner who voted for me) Why is #349, them, townie for not being sure?
13) This read makes no sense. GB scum read BF (which you find scummy), but it's OK because "he was just overthinking it", even though there was no indication of him overthinking it.
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
April 07 2016 17:40 GMT
#455
top scum reads Fidei, Goss
scum leans RB, GB
top town reads CHodge, Damdred
town lean on LS
null on art and DYH
no read on Kura and Spike because they've done nothing yet
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
April 07 2016 18:04 GMT
#457
On April 08 2016 02:55 Gossemerr wrote:
Also Fiedei: third date bro? Step it up earlier haha.

Hey, since you're here, can you please answer my question as to why you never followed up on flip analysis?
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
April 07 2016 18:07 GMT
#459
oh
I thought that was Fidei's WoT
reading now
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
April 07 2016 18:11 GMT
#460
Oh shit you are where I was, for the most part, before I went and re-read people's filters (specifically Fidei's)
Reconsidering my scum read on Gossemerr
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
April 07 2016 19:20 GMT
#471
On April 08 2016 03:18 Gossemerr wrote:
Hey Tumble why do you have such a strong read on Fidei? - I agree that he is not cleared, but it seems like you are reading him strongly scum through only disagreeing with his analysis?

I think that a WoT like that one with poor analysis is a strong indicator of scum, because it's intimidating to attack and often gets skimmed and assumed fine, but it was full of things that upon further analysis don't line up.
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
April 07 2016 20:09 GMT
#474
Lol LS quoting an entire WoT and only commenting on a single line of it... is that all you have to say?
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
April 08 2016 05:01 GMT
#501
On April 08 2016 13:37 GlowingBear wrote:
Ok I've read almost everything, kinda got bored at the last 3 pages.

Artanis how does it feel to be mafia?

Where did this Art scumread come from?
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
April 08 2016 17:33 GMT
#550
Goss, GB is one of your scumreads, right? So why are you "ok" with him getting lynched and not pushing him?
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
April 08 2016 22:47 GMT
#589
On April 09 2016 05:23 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 09 2016 05:15 DoYouHas wrote:
Tumblewood

+ Show Spoiler [My original thoughts] +
On April 06 2016 13:21 DoYouHas wrote:
I think TW is likely scum.

His "damn, caught me" comment to Artanis' list caught my eye. Mafia are more likely to play off pressure (even fake pressure) as a joke instead of flatly denying.

Show nested quote +
On April 05 2016 12:48 Tumblewood wrote:
On April 05 2016 12:25 GlowingBear wrote:
What's your opinion on his opening, Tumblewood?

I'm going to go case-read on this because I can't really judge which case it is yet.
Case 1: Artanis is town and is using that post to judge people's reactions.
Case 2: Artanis is town and is using that post to lighten up the thread and get things started.
Case 3: Artanis is scum and is using that post to appear that he's trying to get reactions.
Case 4: Artanis is scum and is using that post to appear carefree.
Of these, case 4 is the worst and case 1 is probably the best. I think that his opening is NAI [for newbies, that stands for "Not Alignment Indicative"] for now. Your vote is entirely throwaway or entirely overweighted. Really it's just D1 start and we're reading into nothing.

This post doesn't do anything. It's made to look like it does something but it argues itself into nothing. Step 1: let's analyze Art's play. Step 2: GB's vote was a waste and we are reading into nothing.

##Vote: Tumblewood

This also makes me suspicious of Art, but that is unflipped association for now.


He pushes all 3 wagons from D1. 2/3 of which are solid town, 3/3 I think are town.
1.
On April 07 2016 07:08 Tumblewood wrote:
I'm unconvinced by the case on LS, and skeptical of the case on RB (could easily just be a newbie who's not used to this). Boxerfred is a sensible if shallow case... I'm not feeling great about it, but there's really nothing better going on right now.

2.
On April 07 2016 07:25 Tumblewood wrote:
On April 07 2016 07:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
On April 07 2016 07:16 Tumblewood wrote:
I don't understand this case for GB... It's because he did something to stir discussion but didn't make a play on it? I'm just not seeing very much there.

Basically for me it's:
-Pretend to be playing along with my discussion starter
-Does fuck all after
-Comes back to the thread with reads, never did anything with said discussion starter
-Calls boxerfred scum citing that he usually plays as scum and doesn't as town when he hasn't really done much at all yet. Also he hasn't dropped the Damdred read at all unlike what GB said.

Basically he hasn't followed up on what he said he was doing and his read on BF seems made up.

Damn, looked back at that original BF read... I understand the read progression part, but "usually more useless as town" is not a reason for a read ever.
I feel a lot stronger about this than boxerfred. ##Vote GB

3.
On April 07 2016 07:52 Tumblewood wrote:
On April 07 2016 07:47 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Okay I'm back.
Who's up for shenannies?

I assume you mean Fidei? I'd be up for shenannies if I thought they would work, but Fidei is a dice roll at best.


Notice that even though he says he would be up for the shenanigans, he doesn't actually move his vote even though there was time, and it would have worked. This fits perfectly with the mafia tendency to split their votes when it is multiple town on the chopping block for EoD.

-
His list post doesn't add up:
On April 08 2016 02:40 Tumblewood wrote:
top scum reads Fidei, Goss
scum leans RB, GB
top town reads CHodge, Damdred
town lean on LS
null on art and DYH
no read on Kura and Spike because they've done nothing yet


First off, having Fidei as your top scumread when there is a huge reason to think he is town is dumb.
Secondly, Goss is bigger scumread than GB at this point based on 1 post? GB held TW's vote for d1 based on more than that.
Most importantly, "null on art". TW has defended Art twice, agreed with Art's case enough to vote for GB, and pushed Art's agenda with the shennanigans. For someone who clearly is siding with Art, a null read is just scum hedging.

That's a whole lotta associating going on around here. There's only a few points that aren't. Him not switching his vote when shenannies were going on (which also only matters if there's a scum in there, or scum can do anything so I'm not sure why you're using that as a point against him when you believe they're town). His defense on me whilst not townreading me is weird though but I didn't really think it was a defense, more of an explanation. Only point you really have going against TW is that he never switched to Fidei when that was his top scumread.

TW, why didn't you switch to Fidei when shenannies were happening?

I did not scumread Fidei until N1 (after he made the WoT)
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
April 09 2016 19:20 GMT
#615
On April 10 2016 03:39 Gossemerr wrote:
God damn i love your post Art. RB still won't answer me why he is tunneling LS so fucking hard without considering GB.

WTF is this RB? Capitalization means what exactly?
Show nested quote +
On April 10 2016 02:48 Race Bannon wrote:
LS is scum.

On April 09 2016 09:58 LightningStrike wrote:
On April 09 2016 09:11 Gossemerr wrote:
EBWOP:
in favor of*

I honestly don't know because I do believe that GB town and same with Lex but if I wrong anyone maybe GB because I am a huge sucker for him.

Day 1 lead the lynch on a townie who predictably could't make the deadline (Germany). Day 2 no scumspect. CH would've been glad to lynch him so perhaps that's why he got offed.

In the post which I got my scumread from, there may be a vet crumb to render an eventual fake claim more persuasive.
On April 06 2016 22:13 LightningStrike wrote:
Just woke up and I think CHodge is Town for a few reasons.
1. His approach to the game is quite different than a normal newbie regarding Vet players like myself and Artanis.
2. He been more thinking critically than me and everyone else up to this point.

notice the capitalization.

In case you haven't heard already I'm fairly certain that the timing of this post and it's content is indicative of scum parading CH as the most proficient townie in the field and thus making my lynch more attractive because CH was voting me.



@ Fidei
Show nested quote +
On April 10 2016 01:55 Fidei86 wrote:
Guys. we are switching to Spika. He has enough posts to know he isn't lurking, but not enough to have contributed anything. Artanis might be mafia, but Spika is dead weight.

##Vote: Spikasaur

I don't want to lynch a lurker over a probable mafia. We learn absoultely nothing from a lurker lynch that nobody has even been talking about / has any vested interest in. For being "town firmed" as you and others think you are not being pro-town in my mind with this. It just causes more confusion for a town that is trying to get unified behind an either Art or GB lynch today.

Finally, lol:
Show nested quote +
On April 09 2016 16:54 GlowingBear wrote:
IIIIII AM DRUUUUUUNK


I like the cases and my own read @ GB = mafia.

##Vote GlowingBear

Re RB: He's accusing LS of breadcrumbing in preparation for a later fakeclaim.
Agree on Fidei
Don't know why you quoted the GB post, seems like regular, NAI drunkenness from him.
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
April 09 2016 21:59 GMT
#638
Feeling pretty bad about all of our lynch options right now. GB is the only one who I won't feel bad about voting

On mobile right now so dry about that
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
April 09 2016 22:03 GMT
#642
Also I think I overreacted on Fidei and Goss. Making reads based on one post sucks, don't do it.
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
April 09 2016 22:15 GMT
#649
If GB flips town, I am 100% lynching Art. I don't see TvT or SvS here.
good times for all
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