Hmmm... not a single scummer being on the palmar train sounds hard to belief... Well the votes were super fucking close. Maybe scum really was jumping hard on the zyrre train to save Palmar in the hope he can pull that stuff he did in Outlaw again? Like Palmar+koshi+chez+1 of MD or Onegu doesn't sound unreasonable.
On February 09 2016 02:25 disformation wrote: Hmmm... not a single scummer being on the palmar train sounds hard to belief... Well the votes were super fucking close. Maybe scum really was jumping hard on the zyrre train to save Palmar in the hope he can pull that stuff he did in Outlaw again? Like Palmar+koshi+chez+1 of MD or Onegu doesn't sound unreasonable.
One interesting thing to notice about the votecount is the last 4 players (if we include you) on the Palmar train were town
Usually (obv not always, but as a vague rule of thumb) you'd expect the players at the front to be town, and the players more in the middle/end to be mafia (where mafia come to the realisation they need to bus), but in this case it's not quite like that. It adds to the possibility the wagon was "pure"
Basically everyone needs to take a deep breath and not complicate the game, this game seems really simple as long as I ignore NM and trust the meta read on him. Disform you arent taking into account the throwaway votes which are stupid indicative of mafia.
Yeah, I like to overthink (or underthink) things. I am a man of extremes you know. :p
And nah I am not entirely ignoring the throw away votes. MD can be scum here, but he is pretty coinflippy to me atm. For Onegu I don't think this vote is AI with him replacing out and stuff. Though the same happened in DT. Would be rally hilarious if it is really Onegu/MD/Chez/Palmar... -.- Would explain why everyone is struggling with reads.
Like if the Palmar wagon is really pure, there can't be 4 scum on zyrre imo. Even three would be somewhat of a stretch.
On February 09 2016 03:02 NocturneMage wrote: at disformation
between the two solo voters, MoosyDoosy is more likely mafia than Onegu. it isn't super likely a scumteam would have 2/4 off wagon, even so look at other attributes.
onegu there is absolutely zero indicative information either way.
MoosyDoosy could be scum because:
(1) repeated question dodging/not giving reads when requested (at least 3 occasions I've counted) - has bailed on me twice when questions have been asked directly of him, once day 1 and once early day 2
(2) reasons for scumreading/not trusting ritoky day 1 in context were extremely murky, vague and evasive
(3) even if Rels verified that MD's meta read on him was correct, he also townread me a bit too easily. namely that I was town for being illogical/convoluted, whereas disformation and Rels scumread me for the exact same thing. pretty sure now that read was contrived.
(4) Day 2 he stated that Rels' activity dropped off when the opposite was true - he was pushing Koshi. Instead of giving a read on Rels, Moosy gave another evasive answer (post 1854)
(5) bottom of page 95, I pressed him for a read on Rels AGAIN. He gave another deflective answer AGAIN. (post 1898) Nothing after that after I had to go to bed.
his "dumbtelling" is very easy to fake as mafia, and it's been a known fact since Fullmetal. I would use other criteria (less fake-able) to ensure he's town if he somehow is.
I will expand on these points with quotes when I'm back on a laptop if I need to but references should be obvious.
Well, yeah MD looks worse than onegu because onegu is a true null read. Still don't think (3) is too worrisome. Your points on him dodging your questions is good though. He can join the list of ppl I have a scum lean on.
On February 09 2016 02:25 disformation wrote: Hmmm... not a single scummer being on the palmar train sounds hard to belief... Well the votes were super fucking close. Maybe scum really was jumping hard on the zyrre train to save Palmar in the hope he can pull that stuff he did in Outlaw again? Like Palmar+koshi+chez+1 of MD or Onegu doesn't sound unreasonable.
One interesting thing to notice about the votecount is the last 4 players (if we include you) on the Palmar train were town
Usually (obv not always, but as a vague rule of thumb) you'd expect the players at the front to be town, and the players more in the middle/end to be mafia (where mafia come to the realisation they need to bus), but in this case it's not quite like that. It adds to the possibility the wagon was "pure"
Basically everyone needs to take a deep breath and not complicate the game, this game seems really simple as long as I ignore NM and trust the meta read on him. Disform you arent taking into account the throwaway votes which are stupid indicative of mafia.
Yeah, I like to overthink (or underthink) things. I am a man of extremes you know. :p
And nah I am not entirely ignoring the throw away votes. MD can be scum here, but he is pretty coinflippy to me atm. For Onegu I don't think this vote is AI with him replacing out and stuff. Though the same happened in DT. Would be rally hilarious if it is really Onegu/MD/Chez/Palmar... -.- Would explain why everyone is struggling with reads.
Like if the Palmar wagon is really pure, there can't be 4 scum on zyrre imo. Even three would be somewhat of a stretch.
don't really understand why this is or isn't the case. 3 is easily believable, and 4 maybe.
here's a little food for thought: what if Palmar was their vigi?
UUuuuhhhhh... right! Totally did not think about scum roles. Makes total sense if Palmar is a really good scum role.
On December 04 2015 21:50 Palmar wrote: Also, if you can't figure out my alignment that's on you, not me. Town hero and eternal leader Damdred figured it out.
Wow you actually do have four pages of filter. Okay. But I do disagree with you viz you "being towny" enough. It's actually not. When you get mislynched its almost always 50% on the idiots who lynched you and 50% on you for being scummy town. That's a really important thing that lots of people forget as town.
I'm literally the goddamn prophet of "if you get lynched it's your own damn fault". That ties very well into what I was saying earlier about why I should never be vigged.
How the fuck did you get these links in 2 minutes.
On February 09 2016 06:09 Chezinu wrote: Some may say that you are not deep. Some may say that you are not an intellectual. Some may say that you are not an artist. Some may say that you are not a critic. Some may say that you are not a poet. Some may say that you just have internet access.
Well, know this.
Those some may sayers are not going to live with you long. So know that there are other some may sayers that can cheer you on.
You can Deep! You can Intel! You can Art! You can Crit! You can Poe! You can and have internet access!
Truly inspirational. Well said Chez. How are you on this fine time of the day? I hope you are well.
On February 09 2016 19:59 marvellosity wrote: okay. but you definitely made one while it still wasn't popular right? :p
On February 08 2016 00:54 Rels wrote: This post got way bigger than I though, I'm trying my best to organize it.
I don't like Koshi at all, he might very well be scum. Here is why:
1 D1 the only real thing he did was pushing kush + opposing Palmar's lynch. That's it. No read on anyone else, especially Zyrre. Like, I think this is the only post about Zyrre in his filter:
On February 06 2016 02:58 Koshi wrote: Kush comming in and giving a townread on Palmar and rescind a townread on Zyrre is not doing things.
Well, he ended up voting Zurre with kush. 2 I don't like that he townreads Palmar early using a "secret tell" Palmar apparently only does when he's scum. Where is the fucking tell now ? Then, he scumreads Palmar more and more as votes piles up on him, and votes him, but is still against his lynch. In particular, the last post is super weird in the progression:
On February 04 2016 20:51 Koshi wrote: Ugh... Palmar is almost certainly not mafia here. I have a pretty good tell for him when he is mafia. It's not this.
On February 04 2016 22:17 justanothertownie wrote:
On February 04 2016 22:12 disformation wrote:
On February 04 2016 20:20 Palmar wrote: This game is going to be painful because I'm going to obsess about finding the "superbia" mafia and never give anyone a townread ever.
I feel I should just write off disfo as town, for example, but I don't want to
I like this post. Paranoia is a good town trait to have imo.
In general yes. But not to a point where you don't trust anybody at all because that's not how you win as town. And Palmar who is probably the most experienced player in this game perfectly knows it. This wasn't the first time he townread a mafia, in fact he always says "there is always that one mafia who slips into my townreads" so this should not be shocking to him.
That's true. Palmar, you spent all game lynching scum last game until you died AND you did say that a scum would always slip in your townreads. I have no idea why you feel like "This game is going to be painful"; it doesn't make sense after your amazing reads last game.
This I can agree with. Would expect Palmar to be even more cocky tbh.
On February 06 2016 00:44 VayneAuthority wrote: I can also agree with kush and policy moosydoosy for excessive emoticon use AKA the rsoultin law
VA bestest buddy. Please vote Kush. This is lazy town Palmar. Kill him D3 if he is alive and still trash.
How are you sure that Palmar can't replicate this as scum?
And what are your thoughts on marv's point about him not having direction?
The reason I ask you this is from what I previously read, marv/JAT, you seemed to be in a lot of conversation at times, together. So I think you are in a best position to evaluate this.
I am not sure. If Palmar didn't omgus JAT and then left I wouldn't even consider him as possible mafia. Palmar as town can be shit and 100% afk. I have played more than enough times with Palmar to know this.
If we vote Palmar and he flips town we just lost an important player for nothing. And I wouldn't even be surprised if it happened. Pure coin flip lynch and results can be disastrous.
But if people want to do it I am not opposing the lynch vocally.
On February 06 2016 04:06 Koshi wrote: I got indoor soccer at 2100. But it will take a while after I played and I might only be around on phone depending on what we will do.
I am not against a Palmar lynch in theory. But I strongly suggest not lynching him.
On February 06 2016 04:12 Koshi wrote: Fuck I need to go........ I disagree with this lynch 100%
There is all this progression from "100% town" to "if he's town it's a bad lynch" to "I'm not really against Palmar's lynch but I think we should wait" to finally ... "I disagree with the lynch 100%". IT MAKES NO SENSE, especially 6 minutes after saying "I am not against a Palmar lynch in theory". 3 Finally, I dislike all the random questions / opinions that is in his filter, and that doesn't serve any purpose / does not lead to anything. Examples:
On February 05 2016 14:50 Damdred wrote: Surprised you and nm didn't catch it playing the game.
moosey scum team is va, oneg and koshi.
Ehats wrong with that team
if you're talking about how he dumbtelled 3 mafia @ the end instead of 4 in a 17 person game, that's kinda meh in terms of dumb tells.
i saw Rels mention it on the last page, and I thought the same as this post here - it's kinda meh in terms of dumbtells.
But maybe the way it happens makes it more believable/genuine. Don't really know what to think exactly
It's part meta too. I can very clearly see this coming from Moosy. In one game I've played with him, he was town!roleblocker but didn't know he could stop scum KP because he didn't read the OP. In addition, Moosy is super serious as scum; he could replicate his "silly" town meta pretty easily, but I don't think he would think of this dumbtell. It doesn't even feel like a forced dumbtell: he played a game until there were only 3 names left. It could have go unnoticed very easily. I didn't notice it.
Do you have a scumgame of his? I only remember 1 town game. It was horrid.
On February 06 2016 04:05 boxerfred wrote: also i reviewed that va/nm thing and I come to the conclusion that my original thought (one of them being mafia) is bullshit. there's no indicator for that and I obviously followed disformation who had this thought first. funny enough, he had it from ritoky who's originally a scumread of mine so wow I should read more details.
This post looks bad. But w.e
Where is the follow up ? Especially in Moosy's and BF's case, where he shows he has suspicions but don't talk about them anymore.
I think that was like early D2? Need to double check time stamps and stuff
On February 08 2016 00:54 Rels wrote: This post got way bigger than I though, I'm trying my best to organize it.
I don't like Koshi at all, he might very well be scum. Here is why:
1 D1 the only real thing he did was pushing kush + opposing Palmar's lynch. That's it. No read on anyone else, especially Zyrre. Like, I think this is the only post about Zyrre in his filter:
On February 05 2016 08:10 Koshi wrote:
On February 05 2016 08:05 Damdred wrote: That zyrre post is so bad for so many reasons
It actually isn't. I can see him believe that. I can believe it.
Then:
On February 06 2016 02:58 Koshi wrote: Kush comming in and giving a townread on Palmar and rescind a townread on Zyrre is not doing things.
Well, he ended up voting Zurre with kush. 2 I don't like that he townreads Palmar early using a "secret tell" Palmar apparently only does when he's scum. Where is the fucking tell now ? Then, he scumreads Palmar more and more as votes piles up on him, and votes him, but is still against his lynch. In particular, the last post is super weird in the progression:
On February 04 2016 20:51 Koshi wrote: Ugh... Palmar is almost certainly not mafia here. I have a pretty good tell for him when he is mafia. It's not this.
On February 04 2016 22:31 Koshi wrote:
On February 04 2016 22:28 Rels wrote:
On February 04 2016 22:17 justanothertownie wrote:
On February 04 2016 22:12 disformation wrote:
On February 04 2016 20:20 Palmar wrote: This game is going to be painful because I'm going to obsess about finding the "superbia" mafia and never give anyone a townread ever.
I feel I should just write off disfo as town, for example, but I don't want to
I like this post. Paranoia is a good town trait to have imo.
In general yes. But not to a point where you don't trust anybody at all because that's not how you win as town. And Palmar who is probably the most experienced player in this game perfectly knows it. This wasn't the first time he townread a mafia, in fact he always says "there is always that one mafia who slips into my townreads" so this should not be shocking to him.
That's true. Palmar, you spent all game lynching scum last game until you died AND you did say that a scum would always slip in your townreads. I have no idea why you feel like "This game is going to be painful"; it doesn't make sense after your amazing reads last game.
This I can agree with. Would expect Palmar to be even more cocky tbh.
On February 06 2016 03:30 Koshi wrote:
On February 06 2016 03:03 NocturneMage wrote:
On February 06 2016 00:46 Koshi wrote:
On February 06 2016 00:44 VayneAuthority wrote: I can also agree with kush and policy moosydoosy for excessive emoticon use AKA the rsoultin law
VA bestest buddy. Please vote Kush. This is lazy town Palmar. Kill him D3 if he is alive and still trash.
How are you sure that Palmar can't replicate this as scum?
And what are your thoughts on marv's point about him not having direction?
The reason I ask you this is from what I previously read, marv/JAT, you seemed to be in a lot of conversation at times, together. So I think you are in a best position to evaluate this.
I am not sure. If Palmar didn't omgus JAT and then left I wouldn't even consider him as possible mafia. Palmar as town can be shit and 100% afk. I have played more than enough times with Palmar to know this.
If we vote Palmar and he flips town we just lost an important player for nothing. And I wouldn't even be surprised if it happened. Pure coin flip lynch and results can be disastrous.
But if people want to do it I am not opposing the lynch vocally.
On February 06 2016 03:48 Koshi wrote:
VE has been lynched 26 times, Vivax and Palmar have been lynched 24 times.
This doesn't proof anything but something funny I saw in database. Just proof that Palmar is also shit as town.
On February 06 2016 04:06 Koshi wrote: I got indoor soccer at 2100. But it will take a while after I played and I might only be around on phone depending on what we will do.
I am not against a Palmar lynch in theory. But I strongly suggest not lynching him.
On February 06 2016 04:12 Koshi wrote: Fuck I need to go........ I disagree with this lynch 100%
There is all this progression from "100% town" to "if he's town it's a bad lynch" to "I'm not really against Palmar's lynch but I think we should wait" to finally ... "I disagree with the lynch 100%". IT MAKES NO SENSE, especially 6 minutes after saying "I am not against a Palmar lynch in theory". 3 Finally, I dislike all the random questions / opinions that is in his filter, and that doesn't serve any purpose / does not lead to anything. Examples:
On February 05 2016 02:14 Koshi wrote: Also darthfoley might be buddying me because that defense was actually really bad.
On February 05 2016 02:54 Koshi wrote: I actually don't think JAT is mafia this game. I feel dirty.
On February 05 2016 02:57 Koshi wrote: ritoky is Damdred mafia?
On February 05 2016 03:04 Koshi wrote: Damdred his posts have been really bad. Holy mozes.
On February 05 2016 20:22 Koshi wrote:
On February 05 2016 20:02 Rels wrote:
On February 05 2016 19:57 marvellosity wrote:
On February 05 2016 14:53 ritoky wrote:
On February 05 2016 14:50 Damdred wrote: Surprised you and nm didn't catch it playing the game.
moosey scum team is va, oneg and koshi.
Ehats wrong with that team
if you're talking about how he dumbtelled 3 mafia @ the end instead of 4 in a 17 person game, that's kinda meh in terms of dumb tells.
i saw Rels mention it on the last page, and I thought the same as this post here - it's kinda meh in terms of dumbtells.
But maybe the way it happens makes it more believable/genuine. Don't really know what to think exactly
It's part meta too. I can very clearly see this coming from Moosy. In one game I've played with him, he was town!roleblocker but didn't know he could stop scum KP because he didn't read the OP. In addition, Moosy is super serious as scum; he could replicate his "silly" town meta pretty easily, but I don't think he would think of this dumbtell. It doesn't even feel like a forced dumbtell: he played a game until there were only 3 names left. It could have go unnoticed very easily. I didn't notice it.
Do you have a scumgame of his? I only remember 1 town game. It was horrid.
On February 06 2016 04:07 Koshi wrote:
On February 06 2016 04:05 boxerfred wrote: also i reviewed that va/nm thing and I come to the conclusion that my original thought (one of them being mafia) is bullshit. there's no indicator for that and I obviously followed disformation who had this thought first. funny enough, he had it from ritoky who's originally a scumread of mine so wow I should read more details.
This post looks bad. But w.e
Where is the follow up ? Especially in Moosy's and BF's case, where he shows he has suspicions but don't talk about them anymore.
I think that was like early D2? Need to double check time stamps and stuff
On February 09 2016 20:56 disformation wrote: TBF I think BF's scum meta is to try and lurk as hard as possible. On the other hand self-metaing is a bit meh.
Hm, yeah. On the other hand: isn't scum usually more worried about being consistent and therefore are not able to change their reads because they struggle to find a valid reason?
EPT
