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Also, I'm tempted to back to my "Eden is mafia" read.
I don't feel that Eden has been invested in specific lynches, and has instead been willing to go wherever other people want. Looking at his most recent game, Unoriginal Mini Mafia, this was drastically different. In addition, I don't really see Eden scumreading Onegu so strongly before End of Night as he did as town.
The biggest thing that gives me pause is Eden's constant read shifting on Ikidomari. I don't see what the mafia motivation for this is, I would have expected Eden to just make up his mind and mostly stick with it.
Thoughts?
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I mean, do you want me to answer? Because I don't get that impression, but otherwise I'm not sure why you would write that post as you did.
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Darthfoley, are you sure that Eden is town? Are you sure that they are unlikely/incapable of coming from mafia?
If so, what are they? If not, how likely do you think it is that Eden is mafia, and what do you think of the reasons I brought up?
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Basically, here's where I'm at.
Confirmed town:
darthfoley: claimed vigilante
nooniansoong: very high post count, roleblock claim, and brag lists. Post count is a very strong indicator of town, and nooniansoong's posting rate in this game is significantly higher than I've seen from him in the past year. Mafia isn't likely to claim roleblock, and also the brag lists don't fit mafia motivation (mafia would prefer to give reasons/push reads or just not post them). I'm very confident in nooniansoong being town.
_MexicanAlien: very driven early on and seems to care about solving the game instead or surviving. His posting has dropped off lately, as would be expected from generally townread mafia, but I feel like he is more likely to be town, and I have one other secret reason that is extremely strong. And no, it's a secret, so you can't have it.
Shapelog: post count and free, relaxed play
Everyone else:
PepperMintTea
Tumblewood
JesusIncarnate
Ikidomari
Eden1892
Three of the above are mafia. I'll try to work through this today, any thoughts and/or feedback is much appreciated.
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On January 31 2016 02:22 darthfoley wrote:
Yo Trfel. I'm not sure of anything this game. Especially given that 3 VTs have died with nothing to show for it. I'm going to be busy for much of today at a smash tournament, but I will definitely give Eden's filter a closer look.
Off the top of the dome:
I'm not sure I really understand the motivation behind mafia!Eden to go so aggressively after Onegu. I guess it could be because Onegu is a veteran and would be more likely to find inconsistencies in his posts? I mean Onegu was hardly anyone's TR... he was either null or scum read iirc. Would've been a relatively easy lynch (might've taken a couple cycles) and he probably wouldn't have had to put his finger on the scale as much. Seems like a much safer play as mafia to push Onegu, just not to the extent Eden was doing so. Even if mafia were scum and knew there was a vigi, I highly doubt scum expected the vigi shot on Onegu N1. I think that it's much easier for scum to hard-push someone than soft-push them. I know that this is true for me, anyway.
I feel like Eden would hard-push Onegu there because it's something that's easy to do and makes himself look active, and also to influence the vigilante to shoot Onegu. The big thing to me is the reaction after Onegu died, which I'm really having a hard time understanding from town. Basically:
"I have a scumread on Onegu, he's 100% scum! I could be just biased though, because I'm really biased, but Onegu is scum anyway!"
"YOU SHOT ONEGU! YOU'RE THE BEST!!!"
instead of....
I'm biased, why did you sheep me and shoot Onegu?
Which is what I'd expect from town who was just hard-pushing someone and they got shot N1.
I guess I also don't see why this can't come from mafia!Eden. It's not a difficult thing for mafia to do, and it's at least somewhat aligned with mafia motivation (I'd say very, but it's subjective I suppose).
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On January 31 2016 02:42 Shapelog wrote:I literately just checked your filter to see if you did anything after this post. You didn't, you still have yet to explain anything and now you hope on (at the time of this post) the person with the most votes. I am pretty sure you are scum at this point. Nooooo  bad Shapelog.
Wait and see what PepperMintTea does next un-prompted
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On January 31 2016 02:48 Shapelog wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2016 02:43 Trfel wrote:On January 31 2016 02:42 Shapelog wrote:On January 30 2016 20:04 PepperMintTea wrote:
##Vote JesusIncarnate I literately just checked your filter to see if you did anything after this post. You didn't, you still have yet to explain anything and now you hope on (at the time of this post) the person with the most votes. I am pretty sure you are scum at this point. Nooooo bad Shapelog. Wait and see what PepperMintTea does next un-prompted Would you rather me pressure her instead? Like she has also said that she post/do shit today at EOD to get out of talking about why she voted Kura. And now the first thing she does is vote the person with 2 votes on them. I am not going to wait for someone to post at this point. Often, not posting is more telling than posting. You don't need someone to post if all you need is to see their motivations. You're not "letting someone get off easy" if you don't scumread them for being lazy/doing nothing, you're just tightening the noose, but for a later date.
But anyway, it's a moot point. I agree with you that PepperMintTea is suspicious, but the drop-off was so fast that it feels almost beyond mafia motivation, so I'm not sure it's enough in and of itself...
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On January 31 2016 02:49 nooniansoong wrote:
@ trfel Eden could push onegu like that as mafia but he could also do it as town.
You say the selling point is how Eden acted after onegu was shot.
Why would mafiaeden be more likely to express his happiness about the shot? I could see mafia being happy but to express it in the thread is not something mafia is more likely to do, I'm not saying that Eden is mafia (not yet, anyway). This is by no means a selling point.
If Eden is mafia (well as town also), he really had to say SOMETHING after the deadline. It's generally easier for mafia to express motivations that they actually feel (but apply them to different things). I know this from personal experience, from watching The Shining play, DarthPunk in raynpelikoneet's small invite game, etc. So probably the easiest response for happy mafia to give is to let that happiness show in the response, and use the emotion to cover up the fact that your biggest scumread just flipped town.
Again, I'm not saying that Eden is mafia because of this, I'm saying that I find it a bit suspicious and that I don't have any great reasons to townread Eden right now.
Side note, I'm looking through Ikidomari's filter more closely and there are some suspicious things I hadn't noticed before. And the way he vanished after Shapelog and I said that he was town for that weird post was strange, I don't see why town would be like "so I don't understand this, what's going on? Oh, I was wrong, but these people say I'm town. Well, I guess I'm leaving, no need to make any reads!"
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This is getting complicated. I'm going to get lunch, I'll figure the rest of this out eventually.
I looked through JesusIncarnate's filter, but I just don't see him being mafia. I don't really think that the roleblock on nooniansoong means much now that I've thought about it more. There are too many potential flaws with that analysis.
1. Mafia doesn't always do the optimal play, for a wide variety of reasons
2. Even if mafia is trying to do the optimal play, they can see things differently than I/we do, this is a game of opinions
3. Other factors to consider (this basically is part of #2, but whatever)
So just going with my read on JesusIncarnate, he's likely town.
Which leaves three mafia in Eden1892, Ikidomari, PepperMintTea, and Tumblewood. Ikidomari was looking really scummy to me, but I think I need more time to think about it and read him correctly. I know that this is unflipped association, but Eden1892 and Ikidomari make more sense together as mafia than either of them individually (I have a bit harder time seeing either of them as mafia individually). This POE indicates that they are both mafia, but POE is bad and I'm bad, so I really need to think more about this and figure things out.
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On January 31 2016 03:38 nooniansoong wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2016 03:28 Trfel wrote:
I looked through JesusIncarnate's filter, but I just don't see him being mafia.
This is ridiculous. I can understand a null read but what gives you such a strong townread on him? Not a strong townread, sorry. A weak townread, and more of "if he's mafia, then I don't know why, and I definitely can't show it". And I don't lynch people like that.
He's not confirmed town my any means, I'm not scumreading him, and I don't want to lynch him.
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On January 31 2016 05:56 Eden1892 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2016 03:28 Trfel wrote:
This is getting complicated. I'm going to get lunch, I'll figure the rest of this out eventually.
I looked through JesusIncarnate's filter, but I just don't see him being mafia. I don't really think that the roleblock on nooniansoong means much now that I've thought about it more. There are too many potential flaws with that analysis.
1. Mafia doesn't always do the optimal play, for a wide variety of reasons
2. Even if mafia is trying to do the optimal play, they can see things differently than I/we do, this is a game of opinions
3. Other factors to consider (this basically is part of #2, but whatever)
So just going with my read on JesusIncarnate, he's likely town.
Which leaves three mafia in Eden1892, Ikidomari, PepperMintTea, and Tumblewood. Ikidomari was looking really scummy to me, but I think I need more time to think about it and read him correctly. I know that this is unflipped association, but Eden1892 and Ikidomari make more sense together as mafia than either of them individually (I have a bit harder time seeing either of them as mafia individually). This POE indicates that they are both mafia, but POE is bad and I'm bad, so I really need to think more about this and figure things out. It's possible it doesn't mean much, but I think you're going to be hard-pressed to explain the alternative circumstances, which leaves my conclusion as the conclusion by default. - Even if mafia doesn't always do optimal plays or sees things differently, it's hard to justify roleblocking someone that's not their kill if they think a vet is in the game, unless they think that someone is the vig and going to shoot mafia. - Even if mafia blablabla, it's hard to justify roleblocking someone that's not their kill if they think that person they're roleblocking is the doctor, since you would just shoot the doctor. Still basically just leaves you with the world where they thought kush was vig. @kush -- why do you keep asking about Jesus being replaced? It seems pretty reasonable to me just to kill them and not worry about it. (unless you're angle-shooting for modkill Jesus lynch Trfel which makes sense) I mean, you're simply wrong. That's what I thought too, but there are too many ways reads like that go wrong.
I once mislynched someone in LYLO for a "mafia should do this/mafia's best play is to do this" read, and mafia simply hadn't done it. Mafia was trying to win, but they for whatever reason didn't do what I judged to be the best play. I'm not going to make the same mistake again and again and again.
I don't even want to go into possible reasons because there are just too many.
Eden's previous post is also not true. Look at how Alur reacted when his scumread (Kuragari42) flipped town on the Day 1 lynch. I mean, it's possible that Eden would react that way as town, or someone in general would react that way as town. But it does feel a little off to me. I realize that this is subjective, and this is why I am not calling Eden scum, because I don't have good reason to do so yet. I am trying to figure Eden's alignment out. Very, very, very different things.
Shapelog, I'm sorry, but I don't have the energy to read all of that right now. I guess I can't put it off too long, I'll try to get to it later this evening if I can.
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PepperMintTea, I'm having trouble figuring out this game and would really like some help with solving the game. You seem to be a lot more certain than I am.
PepperMintTea, can you please explain how you approached the Day 1 lynch, and why you are so certain of JesusIncarnate being mafia?
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I lied, I'm reading Shapelog's post on Eden1892.
Actually, Eden1892, do you prefer to be called Eden or Eden1892? Because Eden1892 just feels so awkward. Sort of like Artanis[Xp] instead of just Artanis. Or I guess, Artanis[XP] to annoy him in case he reads this.
But anyway.
Shapelog, I feel like some of the reasons you use to scumread Eden1892 may not be the best. For example, you say it's suspicious that Eden posted those reads on Onegu in the first place. Looking back on it, I'd agree that those reads aren't the best, and I'd agree with you why. The main reason being that scumreading someone because "they should have seen this" is really stupid. The problem is, you're scumreading Eden for exactly the same reason, because "he should have seen that Onegu is town". That's exactly the same fault! Just one example, anyway.
Also, just forget about the roleblock analysis. It was dumb to even bring it up, it's not like we are starving for information right now in most cases. We shouldn't use stuff that is that questionable/easy to screw up.
I don't want to go into every detail. And I get what you're saying. But I just don't know.
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So why are you saying it looks bad for Eden then? I don't understand.
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On January 31 2016 07:35 Shapelog wrote:Like I am more concern on how she enter the thread with very moot points about Onegu. Onegu defended himself She just ignores it basically and finds another reason to push scum on Onegu (idk if i included that if not + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2016 17:01 Eden1892 wrote:
Look right now even. He has nothing to say except to call people bad. He's in the thread while real, meaningful reads are being given, and he's pointedly not doing anything constructive. And we're supposed to believe this is tryhard town Onegu? Please. Then ends up towning him because of his scum read on you. Then back into the Scum pile. idk maybe i am seeing something people is not. but Eden is scum. I mean, yeah, I get it.
And it's very well possible. But I don't have a backbone, I don't think I'm ready to make that plunge yet.
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Okay, fine, you got me.
I feel uncomfortable lynching Eden because I'm a wimp. That's the biggest reason.
It's also why I'm letting Trump win.
+ Show Spoiler +Sanders forever, but anyway
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+ Show Spoiler +I mean, I'm from California. But I haven't figured out how to vote yet. I don't think that I deserve to vote if I can't even figure out how, they make it so easy 
I don't know if an Eden lynch is even practical today. Like, I feel that no one would support it.
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I guess that makes sense. Thank you for answering my question.
What if JesusIncarnate has a real life excuse to not play? That he can't post about because of said real life circumstances? Why isn't this a possible explanation?
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On January 31 2016 08:00 Eden1892 wrote:Quite - I'm at work waiting to be sat lol. AMA and I'll answer when I get a bit of time Well, I was trying to catch you.
You posted earlier that answering Shapelog's big post was an inefficient use of time, but didn't seem to be doing anything else related to the game. I was trying to figure out if you were busy with other things. Unfortunately, your answer didn't pertain to that, so oh well I tried. Thanks anyway.
Someday I'll get someone on one of my questions. Someday.
I guess my big question to you is, why are you not taking more control? Or pushing things around? I can think of some reasons why, but I'd really like to hear you say it. I looked at your last town game and you seemed very dominating, particularly when you were trying to push people off of Tubesock. That's a level of force and drive that I haven't seen this game.
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EPT
