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Newbie Student Mafia XIX - Page 2

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
February 03 2016 17:39 GMT
#1983
Reading PMT's filter -

On January 29 2016 00:22 PepperMintTea wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 29 2016 00:16 Ikidomari wrote:
Hey guys, there's obviously a lot of heat on me right now, and I'm going to be around for about an hour or so before bed, if you'd like to ask me any questions feel free, if you want my thoughts on something let me know.
The next time I'll be active is my lunch break tomorrow (probably about 13-14 hours from the time of this post), and then after that will be when I get home from work (18-20 hours from this post).

I'll be as transparent as possible in my answers.


Show nested quote +
On January 29 2016 00:18 Tumblewood wrote:
Just woke up... I have about ten minutes, maybe twenty to answer questions


The best thing the two of you can do is convince us you are town rather than just sitting there waiting to answer questions.


This post sticks the post out to me - Where's the mafia motivation here? Iki already flipped mafia.

PMT also voted mafia day 2 - it wasn't a hammer but it was basically a seal the deal.

PMT needs to come back and talk to me instead of afk voting but I'm not lynching PMT today.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
February 03 2016 18:31 GMT
#1995
On February 04 2016 03:08 Trfel wrote:
I'm willing to talk to anyone except nooniansoong about anything.


Do you think every one on the iki wagon was town?
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
February 03 2016 18:34 GMT
#1999
On February 01 2016 14:24 Eden1892 wrote:
I might be going too deep with some of these names, but the scumteam almost certainly must come from this pool.

Tumblewood
nooniansoong
PepperMintTea


Of the living players, I've already explained why I believe Trfel, Mex, Shapelog, and Jesus are all town. Of course, darth is confirmed town, and I am town too.

That leaves the above pile, and quite honestly? I like it a lot.

In fact, I'm gonna go way deep.

I think it's kush and Tumblewood.

I can't explain why all that well. But I'm gonna give ya what I got.

First Tumblewood. Trfel is right. Iki's read on Tumblewood is really weird. Trfel already explained this, but Iki left himself a ton of wiggle room for reading Tumblewood as town or mafia.
But then notice how he addresses Trfel in that same post:
Show nested quote +
Trfel
Scum read, has a whole lot of posts just asking questions without contributing any information, a whole lot of words with not much to say.
Jumped on the voting for tumbleweed bandwagon simply because it's embarrassing the newbies caught tumble, and not Trfel himself? (Am I missing something here?)
My biggest reason for thinking Trfel is scum is #607 where he says he's trying very hard not to direct the thread, then proceeds to direct the hell out of the thread dissecting tumbleweed's filter, this results in tumbleweed being the current lynch target.
Maybe this is a sick town play and we're going to get rid of mafia on the first night, but I think, judging from his experience, Trfel is an experienced mafia player, and is scum trying to get a townie lynched on day 1.

Isn't the certainty of this read really strange given his ambivalence about Tumblewood? Like he is sure Trfel is mafia. At least relative to his other reads, this is as close to a definite statement we're gonna get from Iki on anybody. And the bulk of his reason why has to do with Trfel pushing Tumblewood.

But... if Iki himself is so unsure about Tumblewood's alignment, why is Trfel so clearly suspicious for pushing Tumblewood? Clearly, you would think, Iki has reservations about Tumblewood from reading Iki's posts. You would expect Iki to at least be somewhat okay with the idea that Tumblewood is mafia, and thus to be somewhat okay with Trfel pushing that idea.

I think Iki was trying to help Tumblewood out by going after Trfel, but also tried to cover his tracks and not leave too obvious an association between them. For the new players, this is called a chainsaw defense -- where you alleviate pressure on a teammate by attacking his attacker, and put the attacker on the backpedal, in order to drive the spotlight away from your teammate.

And guess who else was in on this "push Trfel for his Tumblewood read" action?

kush.

kush is where I'm going way deep on this. But I got a few circumstantial reasons, an associative read, and a goddamn DREAM.

1. kush has been very adamantly defending me from the players scumreading me. There's something weird about it.
In the first place... I don't think he should have been so sure! I can't even believe I'm using this argument, but I would concede that I haven't been as obviously town as I normally would be. I believe I've satisfactorily explained why this is the case, but that doesn't matter. kush didn't know all that. He still was sure I was town.
The second thing is that I didn't really need it! I can defend myself, he knows it and knows I know it. I was never a serious lynch prospect, despite what Mex and Shapelog would want to believe. (Sorry amigos.)
He gave great reasons for me being town. Reasons he could easily give as town. But the timing is what's so weird. I didn't need it... so it wasn't actually contributing all that much.
It gets weirder when you consider a great deal of that effort in defending me was made to Trfel, as he was scumreading Trfel. Like why would you bother? You think Trfel is mafia so you would then believe he doesn't actually believe his read on me. So why go to the effort of arguing with him about me? Makes no sense from townie POV.
But it does make sense from scum POV, because it looks like a relevant topic for discussion, and you think you can get Trfel to say something shady if you keep talking about my alignment and eventually I flip town.

2. kush has been attacking Trfel very doggedly about this Tumblewood read. The timing on that has also been consistent with the notion of a chainsaw defense. You have to believe Tumblewood is mafia already for this to work, but it makes sense based on what's already been discussed. Frankly, I've felt his attack has been too stringent. It feels just a little bit beyond reasonable townie aggression to me. I don't really know how to explain this right, but I am pretty sure I am reading this correctly. I think kush was defending his partner Tumblewood, and by taking the mindset that Tumblewood must be in the right and Trfel must be in the wrong, kush went beyond the reasonable limits of townie interrogation and argumentation on Tumblewood's alignment. kush just seems too sure about Trfel being wrong about Tumblewood for my tastes.

3. As noted before, I believe Iki left one of his partners in the null/watch list, and one in the list of players he didn't discuss. If you accept my narrowing down the pool at the beginning of this post, and you also accept my premise about where Iki put his partners, then you know kush is, by process of elimination, the other partner.

I'll concede that neither of these cases are ironclad, but I really really believe in them right now. I may go back and do further digging to see if I still believe them, or if I were incorrect. But I think this is a really good direction to go in and I would encourage people to join me on it.

Scumteam is Tumblewood and nooniansoong.


I'm pretty confident this is why Eden is dead and not conftown Darthfoley.

I may regret this, but I'll regret more that Eden was right and didn't follow his ways.

I'm HARD claiming Veteran.

So that throws out mafia attempting to roleblock the doc - the setup is vig/vet.
So Kush is probably bullshitting about being roleblocked and is mafia - probably with Tumblewood who he keeps defending like a boss.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
February 03 2016 18:35 GMT
#2001
I had to connect to my home PC to post that since I had it written up already but didn't want to post until necessary.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
February 03 2016 18:40 GMT
#2008
On February 04 2016 03:36 Trfel wrote:
Good claim, not your fault Scott but you were not dying anyway.

And if there is a cc town gets to lynch both in case the first one is wrong. Good timing.


I love noon's reaction - what do you think of it?
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
February 03 2016 19:44 GMT
#2051
On February 04 2016 04:35 PepperMintTea wrote:
##unvote

##vote Tumblewood



Can you give some thoughts on the game?
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
February 03 2016 21:05 GMT
#2067
You want to concede now Kush?
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
February 03 2016 21:06 GMT
#2069
And it was the RB - I'm really glad I claimed then... Nice! GJ ALL
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
February 03 2016 21:09 GMT
#2071
If you could drop a thought-bomb before start of day Darth, I'd appreciate it.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
February 03 2016 21:19 GMT
#2080
On February 04 2016 04:43 Trfel wrote:
I was just trying to lighten the mood.

Assuming that scott is in fact town, if PMT is mafia, I'd expect them to be slower to change the vote for a counterclaim. Mafia would probably wonder what's going on and be skeptical of me joking instead of just changing votes. To me this suggests that PMT is town.


I agree with this thought.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
February 03 2016 23:12 GMT
#2092
On February 04 2016 07:02 nooniansoong wrote:
If only I could concede


Who's the last mafia then?
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
February 04 2016 04:19 GMT
#2103
Who is your second choice- - because you know you will be dead tomorrow - and if Kush is not mafia, who would be instead? I want all your offerings while you are still alive, my friend.

I mean I'm really confident kush is the last one , but we as town have to always look into other options- Kush posted - even if it he is the last mafia - he hasn't conceded - so I still want a last post before you die.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
February 04 2016 04:23 GMT
#2104
There's chances Kush isn't the last and you played the whole game, so I want how you feel about Alien, PMT, and others.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
February 04 2016 21:01 GMT
#2118
##Vote: Nooniansong

If you want to make a case on someone, I'm all ears.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
February 05 2016 17:20 GMT
#2207
On February 05 2016 22:41 Shapelog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2016 03:36 PepperMintTea wrote:
##Unvote

He's getting modkilled so not much point

i'm between iki and tumble

This makes me want to vote Kush over PMT even more. Like why would PMT ever post something like this limiting the lynches with her scum mates.

Maybe she was planning to bus? Or in the case of her mates getting lynched, posted this just to show that they are scum? Idk, i just do not see the mafia motivation to do this. + Show Spoiler +
Unless she was planning for the long game?


Trofl/Scotty 2 bluely. What do you think?


Well she did bus then if she's the last mafia - she basically sealed Iki's fate - and when I replaced in, I gave her towncred for it and said I wouldn't lynch her today - so if that was the plan, it worked at least for a day.

But her small posting isn't probably going to get her to endgame anyway though...

The other thing going on her side is what Trfel brought up, she instantly switched votes when Trfel joke cc'ed. I don't see a mafia doing this either - I see more of "what's going on?"
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
February 05 2016 17:22 GMT
#2209
On February 06 2016 00:44 Trfel wrote:
I don't really feel like PepperMintTea would say that they will bus a teammate and then be this inactive.

If I'm going to bus a teammate, I'll increase my activity and try to get as much credit for the bus as possible, and then try to make sure that I make the sacrifice worth it. Maybe PepperMintTea didn't approach it this way, but it seems a bit less likely. There are just a few things that make me not see PepperMintTea as mafia. I'll try to look more closely tonight.


Mindmeld - yep.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
February 05 2016 17:23 GMT
#2210
On February 06 2016 01:34 nooniansoong wrote:
i almost got the scott lynch then he had to be a fuckign blue role wtf


THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
February 05 2016 19:19 GMT
#2239
On February 06 2016 04:16 nooniansoong wrote:
k im going to actually do some work now. (at actual work not in this game.) it's crazy how no one even realizes i do nothing all day...


Don't let the secret out
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
February 05 2016 22:04 GMT
#2252
On February 06 2016 06:51 nooniansoong wrote:
scott you seem reasonable enough and confirmed town.
how do i get you off me and onto pmt?


On February 06 2016 02:07 nooniansoong wrote:
i think it's pmt over ma.
1 her first post looked weird in a scummy way.
2 she kept limiting her time on the thread. she could have been busy but still.
3 her best case was against tumble. it's easy to write a bus case as scum.
4 didnt' want to lynch ikid on d1 for unmentioned reasons.
5 left her vote on scott and fucked off d3.
6 she originally had her vote on scott rather than ikid d2


Give me a better case than this.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
February 06 2016 04:26 GMT
#2255
You asked for what you wanted for me to change my vote.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
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