EPTI haven't felt strongly about Tube but thought his d1 play wasn't particularly suspicious.
This post really stuck out to me though:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/501039-unoriginal-name-mini-mafia?page=42#836
I pretty much had been thinking about the same exact things he said in this post. I was extremely suspicious of Rayn based on how the EOD went with him trying to get the votes off boxer and on to noon, despite earlier claiming boxer was a fine lynch.
However, there are a few differences in our thought patterns. I figured I would hold off on saying anything as I had other scumreads, could still see Rayn being town here, and there is always a chance Rayn dies in the night (but becomes less likely if he is being scumread, whereas if scum think he is universally townread he is more likely to die in the night).
However, I think this play is much more risky for me as there is a chance I die in the night based on my D1 play and never get to voice this contrary possibility that Rayn could be mafia, whereas Tube almost never dies in the night.
So my problem is, why bother voicing all this suspicion in the night when if you just keep quiet, you could potentially say nothing and Rayn is a high priority nightkill for mafia if he is town. Worst case scenario Rayn is mafia and one of the people who lynched boxer d1 dies in the night, then you can voice this (what I believed to be a great) argument at D2 start.
Basically, I feel like I was literally in the same shoes as Tubesock but felt compelled to not say anything until D2 despite the higher risk of dying in the night, whereas Tubesock felt compelled to voice these concerns before the mafia-kill was announced despite the fact that he was almost never dying in the night. It's like I want to townread him for having the same mindset on me with regards to Rayn, but it wasn't 'exactly' the same with regards to game sense.
It's also something I've seem mafia do (including myself) in an attempt to clear themselves (have a nightkill picked then attempt to bury their nightkill as mafia right before flipping and revealing them as town). It makes others ask 'why would he spend all that time arguing x is mafia if he's just going to kill x in the night'. wifom wifom wifom.. he could be town and just have thought they were mafia. But my question still begs, why rush out all this information in the night? The timing feels off.
For these reasons, I would have no objections to a Tubesock lynch today. It's not so much I have a scumread on him, but he has quite a lot of content and I still don't really have a firm townread on him, he is redchecked by the cop (statistically more likely to be mafia than framed), and the timing of his Rayn push feels very 'off'.
I think it would be best if we limited our discussion to a set number of lynches rather than have votes as spread as they were D1 (it was very lucky that the boxer lynch actually even went through, if mafia were more coordinated they probably could have easily thwarted it).
My suggestion is that we either lynch darth or tube today, depending on what everyone thinks.
