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Newbie Student Mafia XVIII - Page 6

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nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
January 03 2016 14:15 GMT
#821
Oo here are some scum tips for you bro.
Don't make nai mega posts this late in the game. Instead be more conversational. You whole team is making these long ass posts and it looks terrible for them.
nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
January 03 2016 14:16 GMT
#822
Ignore that above post lol
nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
January 03 2016 16:59 GMT
#835
On January 04 2016 01:10 NocturneMage wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 03 2016 22:48 nooniansoong wrote:
Shape mderg onegu is my scumteam. So we basically agree nm.


No, not quite. It's possible I could be wrong somewhere, but my mind is right now Shape, Onegu, GB, with the latter two atm double bussing. Both need town cred, so the scum motivation makes sense, and so does the town motivation, but independent of associative reads, I have reasoning to scumread them both.

I thought mderg's last posts against GlowingBear were towny as it pointed out a discrepancy in prioritising his vote against what his sentiment was.

I know why you are reading mderg as scum fundamentally but what am I missing here? Meta? Should I hit the database then?


Mdergs point against gb was so obvious he doesn't get townpoints for that. Put your self in scums place. Would you think to jump on that post from gb? Of course.
nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
January 03 2016 18:09 GMT
#837
On January 04 2016 02:17 mderg wrote:
kush, simple question: what makes you think I'm scum?


Why would I tell you? You aren't today's lynch. Telling you why you're scum at this point would be like giving you tips.
nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
January 03 2016 18:43 GMT
#840
On January 04 2016 03:37 mderg wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 04 2016 03:09 nooniansoong wrote:
On January 04 2016 02:17 mderg wrote:
kush, simple question: what makes you think I'm scum?


Why would I tell you? You aren't today's lynch. Telling you why you're scum at this point would be like giving you tips.

This makes me think you don't actually have a good reason to scumread me.


Let's just say my reason for scumreading you isn't going to be some big thing that makes people say "ah ha" and convinces them.
nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
January 03 2016 18:49 GMT
#845
On January 04 2016 03:30 Fidei86 wrote:
I'm a bit concerned that nobody has really defended Onegu at all, but at this point if he's scum his scummates are probably trying to distance themselves from him. Also, GB is not the lynch today. I don't really like any of the points made against him.

##vote: Onegu


There's no reason to defend him.
Take my scumteam...
Shape is MIA.
Mderg said he's probably town.
nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
January 03 2016 18:53 GMT
#847
On January 04 2016 03:49 NocturneMage wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 04 2016 01:59 nooniansoong wrote:
On January 04 2016 01:10 NocturneMage wrote:
On January 03 2016 22:48 nooniansoong wrote:
Shape mderg onegu is my scumteam. So we basically agree nm.


No, not quite. It's possible I could be wrong somewhere, but my mind is right now Shape, Onegu, GB, with the latter two atm double bussing. Both need town cred, so the scum motivation makes sense, and so does the town motivation, but independent of associative reads, I have reasoning to scumread them both.

I thought mderg's last posts against GlowingBear were towny as it pointed out a discrepancy in prioritising his vote against what his sentiment was.

I know why you are reading mderg as scum fundamentally but what am I missing here? Meta? Should I hit the database then?


Mdergs point against gb was so obvious he doesn't get townpoints for that. Put your self in scums place. Would you think to jump on that post from gb? Of course.


Two questions:

(1) What makes mderg's actions exclusively mafia? When I skimmed GB's filter, you can see where GlowingBear expresses sentiment against mderg (confident we are hitting mafia) and an argument against Onegu where Onegu is exclusively mafia ("he cannot possibly believe what he is saying") so how can you eliminate either alignment looking at this and coming to the same conclusion? Am I making sense?

(2) The flip side to this question - why do you think GlowingBear is town?


My scumhunting method is this: I try to townread a player, and if I can't, I assume they're scum. It makes it hard to be convincing but I think it's the most reliable way to find scum.
nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
January 03 2016 18:57 GMT
#848
Next thing I'll do is take a look at GB's filter and try to convince people he's town (if I still believe that myself)
nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
January 03 2016 19:02 GMT
#851
On January 04 2016 03:58 NocturneMage wrote:
And your read on mderg is NOT a meta read, correct? If it is, then I will also check his games from the database.


It's not a metaread. I did check out two of his scum games from the database. And I found a similar depth to his scumreads on those games.
nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
January 03 2016 20:22 GMT
#881
i disagree that disinformation confirmed anything. His girlfriend didn't see the PM when she started writing in the thread. the host had to respond in the thread because she wrote in teh thread.
nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
January 03 2016 22:06 GMT
#910
Anyone ever played with scum NM? If so, is he super awesome as scum?
nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
January 03 2016 22:08 GMT
#912
Shining don't feel bad about yourself. Onegu needed to die.
nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
January 03 2016 23:40 GMT
#948
On January 04 2016 07:48 The Shining wrote:
Kush can you explain to me how you went from voting Fidei WITH Onegu D1 to voting Onegu WITH Fidei D2?

I really didn't think scott as scum, for reasons I posted but now forget.
And I did think fidei was scum. But his defense made sense to me. Which is why I wrote "ok maybe the case isn't that strong."

That being said, I'm might to have to look at fidei again because I'm only scumreading two people right now, mderg and shape.
nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
January 03 2016 23:48 GMT
#952
On January 04 2016 08:41 Fecalfeast wrote:
Noice what'd I do that's scummy?


uh im gonna have to revisit this. But a lot of it is PoE. Also I didn't like his d1 vote on me. Especially since he played in nutcracker with me, where I was nearly mislynched d1. There was no hesitation to voting me and no mention of nutcracker.
nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
January 03 2016 23:54 GMT
#956
I wish I could go back in time and commit to plynching onegu d1.
nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
January 03 2016 23:55 GMT
#957
FF if you are town shut the hell up I don't want to get nk. Thankfull NM is probably going to get nk instead.
nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
January 03 2016 23:58 GMT
#960
On January 04 2016 08:49 The Shining wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 04 2016 08:19 Kmatt wrote:
Okay so all things considered that last 10 minutes were pure bull.

On January 04 2016 07:48 The Shining wrote:
On January 04 2016 07:15 Kmatt wrote:
Well. That was an interesting turn of events.

While I haven't given up my claim against GB (possibly even stronger now), Shining definitely got me thinking about the voting patterns. I had my suspicions about Shapelog but was hoping for the GB reveal to give me the info I needed.

I'm leaving for a while, and will probably spend most of the night phase working this out. And that's to say nothing of a potential NK.


I didn't directly answer your question before but I didn't forget about you.

On January 03 2016 11:18 Kmatt wrote:
Don't know if anyone else just noticed but TheCow has been replaced by The Shining. I had my theories on Cow, but since his "character" has been replaced more or less I'd like our "new" friend to weigh in on some current events. Obviously he should read the thread when appropriate, but for when he's finished:

1) Seeing the previous days' discussion in the context current death toll, who or what do you think the biggest factor in Scott's mislynch was?
2) Similarly, why do you think the mafia went for Irish on the first night? (technically if we have both a doctor and vigilante in this game then that might not have been the case but for the sake of argument I'll assume Irish's death was the mafia's doing) Did any of his reads stand out to you or did any arguments he put out seem to be catching on with the thread?
3) Could you weigh in on my GB case? Obviously my opinion on the matter is plain to see, so I'd like to see some other people bounce ideas off of it. Do you think I over-reacted or overlooked anything in my wall of text?


Granted, anyone is invited to answer these, but since I didn't get to see much from Cow before he left, I'd like a bit more insight from his replacement.


Irish flipped town and I have a pretty solid TR on NM, who are the first 2 votes on Scott. Irish also pushed this lynch pretty hard. I believe the lynch was a case of town adamantly pushing the town ML and scum having to do zero work on it. I wouldn't be surprised if there was only one scum on the Scott wagon and the rest were off-wagon. Like kush/noon. If i choose to believe GB is town, that leaves me with mderg/Fidei/Giygas as one of the scum on the Scott wagon.

Kush can you explain to me how you went from voting Fidei WITH Onegu D1 to voting Onegu WITH Fidei D2?

I also really hate outlier votes and have caught scum that way, because scum wouldn't want to all be on the wagon if its a mislynch, like Scotts wagon. So I'm immediately suspicious of Kmatt and Shapelog. But I found a few townie brownies in your filter and Shape is apparently being replaced or modkilled so I won't get too much into that until next day phase, assuming I live.

I'll probably go read Fidei and mderg and giygas tonight.

2) I won't go too much into this, since I don't know the setup. If we have a doctor, he could've been a medic dodge. If we don't, it could've been for his strong presence in thread and being TR by many. It couldve been for his reads. It could've been the possibility of him revisiting his wrong reads. There are too many possibilities and since I don't know the setup, and neither does scum according to the OP, its really hard to figure out the motive behind that shot.

3) honestly, I skimmed it and it was a bit hard to follow. A bit too much narrative for my taste, instead of concrete reasoning for why GBs actions and posts made him scum. And I really thought I was onto something with the lack of friction RE: the GB lynch so I let that take over my actions. I can go revisit it if you'd like but I don't remember seeing anything that was distinctly "damn he's right GB is scummy" instead of "well I've seen bad town GB do bad stuff before".

I will admit, though, that might just be bias from playing with a bad town GB before XD also, what exactly were you thinking about the voting patterns?


I'll admit I might have been having a bit of fun with my write-up. Still, there's one point I'd like to have explained by anyone at this point. I could tag most any of his quoted posts as being anti-town, but my biggest issue (which I'm honestly surprised that it seems to be overlooked) is right here:

On December 31 2015 04:10 GlowingBear wrote:
I've wrote it before. I've played with scott before and he is capable of doing that as town. I'm not lynching him over people I'm fairly confident are scum, simple as that.

(For context, he was voting on me day1)

On December 31 2015 06:48 GlowingBear wrote:
On December 31 2015 06:47 scott31337 wrote:
Im voting with Onegu instead


Then I'm voting you Scott, sorry, but I have a stronger townread on him than you


Now what in the hell was this.

GB Believes me to be scum
GB Asserts that Scott is town
GB Declares that he would not lynch Scott over a stronger scumread (me)
GB Drops his vote on a scumread(me) to intentionally vote Scott who he believed to be town, not because he believed Scott was scum, but because Scott was going to vote Onegu, who GB claimed he had a stronger townread on.
Nevermind that Onegu had 0 votes to Scott's leading 4 at the time of the post. At least the other people on Scott's wagon claimed he was scum. GB doesn't even pretend to believe that.

And we all know how that ended. That entire logic train leading to the vote switch was entirely anti-town.


Well Shining has learned that he shouldn't lead lynch shenannies. This, plus the D1 lynch on a blue Kush lol. I'm saying this because I agree with this and feel I could've very well fucked up. I actually just mentioned this in one of my last posts. GBs vote looks rrally bad. But Scott was already in the lead for lynch so why would GB make himself look this bad by adding onto it and contradicting his own read?

I do need clarification on one thing, though. I thought he was saying his townread on FID was stronger than his TR on Scott. Not his TR on Onegu > Scott. GB confirm/deny? Regardless it's not good logic for voting someone you said you wouldn't vote...


I'm not saying it makes him town, but GB voting scott because he had more of a TR on fidei than scott seems like it makes sense to me.
nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
January 04 2016 00:25 GMT
#981
GB wanna explain why he's confirmed town?
nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
January 04 2016 00:29 GMT
#984
@FF let me warn you that if you keep that meta read towards me I will be able to fool you very easily if I roll scum. I took a long hiatus from mafia and since I've returned I haven't rolled mafia. I think my mafia game would be a lot better these days.
nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
January 04 2016 00:42 GMT
#993
On January 04 2016 09:12 GlowingBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 04 2016 07:22 The Shining wrote:
On January 04 2016 07:13 GlowingBear wrote:
On January 04 2016 07:11 The Shining wrote:
On January 04 2016 07:10 GlowingBear wrote:
On January 04 2016 07:07 The Shining wrote:
Well I fucked that. I can't even be mad at anyone but myself. Giygas, I'm pretty sure I know why but I just want to hear it from you. Why did you switch?

GB you were just saved. Start shitting townie rainbows pls? Super close lynch like this and I'm feeling like I chose wrong...bah


I promise you I'm town this game and I didn't try to deceive you


You answered the Fidei TR, thanks, but why did you have me as never lynch?


No mafia asks for a replacement for being unable to play. They can use it to survive through days. People that ask for a replacement is usually town concerned of ruining other people's game.


So you think Shape is town, too? Don't you think it's also likely scum being unable to play would also ask for a replacement to not risk being modkilled and screwing over their scumteam? That feels NAI, at best, to me. I'm not sure it warrants a read either way. And I've def seen scum replace out before. Hm.


I have never ever seen scum replacing out.

And when he host confirms in thread his girlfriend's message will be sent, it means it's not a plan from Mafia, it means the message was genuine. If it was his plan as Mafia the host wouldn't post interfere


So how the hell does this confirm he's town? It confirms it wasn't a mafia plan, not that he isn't mafia.
You've never seen mafia replace out... Ok but from his girlfriend posting, it's clear that he cannot get to his computer right now. If he didn't vote he would be modkilled, and thus let down his hypothetical mafiateam.
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