EPT- He makes meta case on LS
- I make a post about it
- He reads through the thread (the infamous caps post), then makes post saying LS is town
- OMGUS' on me
Ugh, I've been so fucking wishywashy with this, but I'm going to vote Rels
##Vote Rels
TL Mafia LXXIII: The Nutcracker - Page 4
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GiygaS
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- He makes meta case on LS - I make a post about it - He reads through the thread (the infamous caps post), then makes post saying LS is town - OMGUS' on me Ugh, I've been so fucking wishywashy with this, but I'm going to vote Rels ##Vote Rels | ||
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On December 19 2015 06:41 Tictock wrote: I'd like to check this, which posts are you referring to? #269 On December 15 2015 08:05 Rels wrote: I stayed up for posting this. I thought the deadline was 1 hour earlier. Here is LS filter from the game I just played, in which he was town: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/498635-dark-tournament-mini-mafia?user=LightningStrike Here is his filter from this game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/499399-tl-mafia-lxxiii-the-nutcracker?user=LightningStrike It's a schocking difference. LS as town in dark tournament mafia posted reads, questionned stuff and overall looked to solve the game. In this game, he had NO game-related post until I asked him for a list of reads. I think this guy is scum. ##Vote LightningStrike #357 On December 15 2015 15:35 GiygaS wrote: Still looking over everyone, but I'm sort of stuck on rels. Like I just don't understand his play coming from an experienced player (at least I presume he is based on posts). Like in addition to the things Koshi already said about him, his question seemed to go towards this weird meta-lynch on LS. Like look at this post: There's 9 hours between this post and LS replying to his list. In these 9 hours, LS is pretty on top of things, his content isn't isolated to this list that was requested, and they're pretty relevant to the game. I don't think LS is particularly townie, but this is a pretty bullshit case on him. It just feels like rels posted a weird question and then wanted to attach meaning to it so he put up this weird argument that doesn't even make sense. He even ignored that already noted scummy post from LS (the one where he's talking about conserving posts for the filter), the dude he's talking about. #369 373 On December 15 2015 18:14 Rels wrote: Here is the content LS produced between my question and my accution in those 9 hours, excluding the posts that answer to me: You dirty liar. ##Vote GiygaS | ||
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On December 14 2015 22:57 Shapelog wrote: Wait till you see drunken shapelog. Shit will hit the fan if i decide to get drunk while playing  .The prophecy has been fulfilled. | ||
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On December 20 2015 11:59 Tictock wrote: [/center]Oh wow n/m I fail at reading, just saw Kush when I glanced at this first. ... Uhh, well then this is shit for us then. 5/3 Sorry Koshi. >.< TT so town now it hurts. Packing my life to move for an internship so I won't be around tonight, but bought TL+ so I can archive all the filters and such for my flight tomorrow. | ||
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- TT is blue (Doubt there's two trackers, and it cant be doc or jailer so either rb, or detective) - TT is mafia (i.e. he used KP) - TT is wanderer (i.e. Chocolate) - TT got a gift of gun and used it on kush (NAI, very unlikely not even going to bother) - TT got a non gun gift and used it on kush (NAI) Note that these most likely won't add up to 1 since we're ignoring/fubbing a bunch of things. This is incredibly shady math and I hate myself for doing it, but it's better than the one above so I'll make the sacrifice. Let's say there were 2-3 blue roles in the game. Save you, that means there's 1-2 left. We'll add an additional multiplier based on the specific blue role he had to get (1/4 since we'll ignore tracker). We'll also assume that if he is blue he purposefully visited kush. P(TT is blue) = 0.03125 - 0.0625 Now we know there are 3 mafia. Then the chance mafia chose him to use kp is 1/3. (Assuming the mafia wanted to kill kush) P(TT is mafia) = 0.125 With our assumption of 1-2 Blue, and 3 mafia. There are 3-4 greens left. Additionally apply odds of him getting chocolate (we'll say 1/4 again) and of him visiting kush (1/9). P(TT is chocolate) = 0.01042 - 0.01389 We'll say there were 2-3 gifts handed out in general (out of the 13 players). For our purposes, the gifts that apply here are rolecheck, watcher, and visiting the person who gets nightkilled (this one is important). For the first two, odds are 1/9 he would visit kush. For the third, odds of him visiting kush would be 100%. P(TT got a non-gun gift and used it on kush) = 0.02686 - 0.040293 Sum range: 0.19353 - 0.241683 "Actual" probability (just much closer) of each: - TT is blue (Doubt there's two trackers, and it cant be doc or jailer so either rb, or detective) 12.9% - 32.3% - TT is mafia (i.e. he used KP) 51.7% - 64.6% - TT is wanderer (i.e. Chocolate) 4.3% - 7.2% - TT got a gift of gun and used it on kush (NAI, very unlikely he wouldn't shoot vivax. Not even going to bother) ~0% - TT got a non gun gift and used it on kush (NAI) 11.1% - 20.8% Again, these are very rough, but closer. Sleep time. | ||
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On December 21 2015 00:37 Shapelog wrote: Giygas Khan is more and more like Khan everyday. The real Khan built schools and educated the mongrels. Now we find out that he has a math degree. Just waiting for the Mongolian horde and for him to reveal that he has "rape" (some was rape, others did it actually to survive) people. Wtf man. Wtf | ||
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Town (in order) Shape Tube Scum (in order) Vivax Tt Null (in order of scumminess) Damdred LS Sukrit ##Vote Vivax | ||
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