On December 04 2015 09:03 NocturneMage wrote: I also don't like Trfels turning around on this either.
What the hell are we using WIFOM arguments for?
Because they're really darn accurate. Night kill analysis is amazing.
@Fecalfeast, why else would Damdred be killed? The NocturneMage read seems to be by far the most likely. And that wasn't the only reason that I mentioned that the night kill makes me want to lynch NocturneMage less.
It could be as simple as Damdred is a solid town player, and was read as town by the majority of the players. He clearly had influence as evidenced by the LS wagon. That is enough to make him a good kill. His reads are worth more now that we know for sure he was town, and should be considered carefully, but there is plenty to make him a good nightkill beyond his reads. (Sorry, I know you wanted FF to answer)
"I know what I'm doing is wrong but I'm doing it anyway. Look how I'm participating"
On December 04 2015 21:50 Palmar wrote: Also, if you can't figure out my alignment that's on you, not me. Town hero and eternal leader Damdred figured it out.
Wow you actually do have four pages of filter. Okay. But I do disagree with you viz you "being towny" enough. It's actually not. When you get mislynched its almost always 50% on the idiots who lynched you and 50% on you for being scummy town. That's a really important thing that lots of people forget as town.
I'm literally the goddamn prophet of "if you get lynched it's your own damn fault". That ties very well into what I was saying earlier about why I should never be vigged.
How the fuck did you get these links in 2 minutes.
On December 05 2015 00:04 LightningStrike wrote: BTW James I did say some of my treads throughout my filter but here is a list if you really need one -_- Town: Palmar: Meta says town for him here with his push on Shining look exactly like he did to me in Metal Mini FF: Lazy FF is normally town FF from what I remember but I want him to do more work Rels: He actually put out some cases mainly his case on FYH seems to stick out to me a little and when he was scum I don't remember him casing multiple people O_o Shining: His responses and his questioning seem like Town Shining this game. Tfrel: He did try to case people yes but he done it as scum but he seem much more serious tone here but I should prob check the scum game that some of you guys said this similar to his play there. NM: He went super tryhard right out of the gates but my only issue with him like Rels said is that he not as analyical as I remember him being. Null: HTS: Some of her content seems questionable but she not feeling exactly well either but I willing to give her another day for now to have her feel better and post again. James: It might be a long time but I don't think I ever seen james get so tunneled on me ever O_o But his content is okay. Scum: DYH His read progression is very weird like it doesn't feel natural. Plus some of stuff seems like it adds little value. If I missing anyone let me know.
The part about me is false. I made multiple cases as scum in Drams, in which you were playing.
On December 05 2015 00:48 Fidei86 wrote: Alex is there anything at all that gives you pause on your read of Dani?
From a personal viewpoint? No.
From a gameplay standpoint? No. I've tried my best here to gauge her using as parallel situation as possible from both alignments. I have no understanding of how Rels fails to see how my thinking isn't analytical but I guess I can't win with everyone.
I obviously learnt from newbie 14 I can't convince people for shit and this is my first non-newbie game so it looks like I have a ways to go on this.
Are you kidding me. I'm not saying this makes you scum: but your tone is really different from the other games you played. I think I've only seen one of those #9999 that I hate in your posts.
On December 05 2015 00:25 NocturneMage wrote: I also heavily believe LS is Mafia. He's going out after Dani.
If Dani flips town, I am giving her my next two weeks' salary and I'll take a mislynch because I am that fucking bad at understanding someone I know extremely well in real life.
There is zero fucking chance she is town. Zero.
Rels, I can understand you being hesitant because I'm not being "analytical" but this is HTS we are talking about here. She is a weasel when she is Mafia.
On December 04 2015 00:08 disformation wrote: HtS From the top of my head I feel like there is a certain lack on follow ups. I also remembered playing with town!HtS in my first game (NSM9), where she was interrogating me inquisiton style EoD1 and D2 to get some conclusions from me. That kind of fire is a bit missing here I feel. So her coming back to follow up on the promised re-reads of people and throwing out some reads, would be great.
I think HtS is null at best. Since NM is starting to gain a bunch of townie brownies and I believe that his read on HtS is godtier, HtS has a pretty high chance of flipping scum.
On December 05 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote: And you Rels also agree with me that Trfel is (likely) mafia as well, is there a case on him, and if so, what page?
No case. Look for some posts I made this afternoon
On December 05 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote: And you Rels also agree with me that Trfel is (likely) mafia as well, is there a case on him, and if so, what page?
On December 04 2015 21:50 Palmar wrote: Also, if you can't figure out my alignment that's on you, not me. Town hero and eternal leader Damdred figured it out.
Wow you actually do have four pages of filter. Okay. But I do disagree with you viz you "being towny" enough. It's actually not. When you get mislynched its almost always 50% on the idiots who lynched you and 50% on you for being scummy town. That's a really important thing that lots of people forget as town.
I'm literally the goddamn prophet of "if you get lynched it's your own damn fault". That ties very well into what I was saying earlier about why I should never be vigged.
How the fuck did you get these links in 2 minutes.
On December 05 2015 09:54 Trfel wrote: I think I am going to (for now) make the assumption that Rels is town because I need him to be town. And disformation, too.
Rels, Remember that first game we played together? The Newbie game? Where I was mafia with WaveofShadow and we dominated? I looked really good for most of that game, and I was scum.
The game after that, I didn't play for ~two days, nearly got mislynched a few times I think, and ended up completely throwing the game for town. And the last two town games I've played, I was a lynch candidate throughout (though never seriously a wagon).
My point being that for some players (I'd say most), how "good" or "bad" they look (aka thread standing/status) doesn't really show their alignment.
In this game, I have been scumread a ton for my read progression at the start of Day 2. My play at this time was bad, because I made night kill analysis that had too many assumptions and was too likely to be wrong. And I changed my reads based on this analysis. However, there is no mafia motivation for doing this and at face value it does not say anything about my alignment.
Having just come off of a game as scum, I'm obviously town in this game because I often have trouble playing town after being scum, much less being mafia. That argument aside, my reads are based on completely different things this game than they are as scum. It's easy for me to look through a filter and call the person scum because of it, it's a lot harder to go through and analyze the mafia motivation and the ways that they could be town. I realize that this is self-meta and I am aware of it, but two things. First, I don't think it's something I can effectively replicate as mafia (though I've never tried). Second, it's extremely town motivated; you can evaluate my read progression for yourself, I think it's obvious that I am putting critical thought into the game and trying to consider things from every angle.
Other than the aforementioned night kill analysis, I think that my play has been fairly solid. I haven't really been scumread for anything other than the night kill analysis (and my read changes caused by it) and "playing to my scum meta", both arguments I have dismissed.
I think that DoYouHas could maybe be mafia, his activity has seemed really low, however the case on Half the Sky (assuming for the moment that Half the Sky is scum) feels genuine. I don't have as much problem with the "I got nothing on Half the Sky" then "here's why Half the Sky is mafia" because his biggest point came after the first thing was said, but I need to check and see. I'm assuming that you are town because I am. I haven't looked at Fidei86 yet, but his activity has been really high lately. I've heard people use meta to say that high activity makes him 100% town, however that's not too reliable and I should look. I think that Half the Sky is mafia. I think that LightningStrike is town for a few reasons, but there's a small chance he could be mafia. I think that The Shining is maybe town, but I haven't looked at him in a while. His play seemed very different after everyone stopped pushing him, I haven't really felt his thread presence much (though I could easily be wrong on both of these points). I liked his townread of me, but given that everyone else thinks the opposite this might actually suggest that he is mafia. And finally, I have no clue how he concluded that LightningStrike is scum in this game due to comparison with his Drams mafia filter. I guess disformation is probably town, but he could be mafia. However, I'm assuming that he is town. I think that NocturneMage is sort of mafia. I think that Fecalfeast is sort of town, but he could be mafia. I think that Palmar may be mafia.
Basically, that's seven people I think may be mafia with a reasonable enough chance (and that's not including my assumption that you two are town). Which is way too many. It is probably safe imo to consider Fecalfeast as town, leaving six people: Fidei86 (just because I haven't looked at him), Half the Sky, The Shining, NocturneMage, DoYouHas, and Palmar. Which still feels like a lot, given that I'm not completely sold on everyone else.
This makes it really hard for me to be confident in my reads because I'm suspicious of so many people? It makes me feel like I'm doing something wrong, like I'm stretching on my reasons to scumread people. I need some help/advice here?
Step 3: I think that NocturneMage is mafia. I'm either right about this with great reasons, or I'm wrong, all my reasons are garbage, and NocturneMage is the most obvious town in the game. There's nothing in between, and this annoys me. + Show Spoiler +
First of all, NocturneMage has been really really good at making himself look good and making me look really really bad. I don't know if this is indicative of him being town or mafia, but I need to say this first.
I feel that I've raised several good points against NocturneMage, and he's really good at seemingly dismissing them (without actually dismissing them) in a way that makes me look really bad (objectively bad, not necessarily alignment indicative, usually). He's able to do this because I've been saying way too much, and I haven't been focusing on the important things. Therefore, he's able to make huge arguments over things that don't matter, and ignore the important points. Or manipulate the argument into one that can't be resolved for either side. I'll probably take another try at explaining my reasons for scumreading NocturneMage soon, but making concise arguments that can't be argued into an argument that you can't prove (to everyone, not just yourself) are difficult for me.
Raising a ton of points instead of a few key ones is a really horrible habit of mine.
Basically, two questions. 1. Do my arguments for scumreading NocturneMage make any sense? Or am I completely on another planet? If the latter, then I'm probably just very wrong and a re-explanation doesn't change this. 2. Is NocturneMage obviously town for other reasons (namely, activity and thread presence) that no other argument could significantly change this? I personally don't think so, but I realize that I am biased.
Note that I still feel that my case against MoosyDoosy earlier was extremely strong, perhaps not a 99.9% read but an 80% read or so (MoosyDoosy's post-deadline posts don't fit with my mafia mindset for him, I can't ignore this). However, since Damdred didn't think so, and Damdred's a really good player, I have more doubt about that. Last time I was town, I made what I thought was a really solid case and Damdred completely disagreed and I was right, but Damdred could very well be right this time. What influence, if any, do you think MoosyDoosy's play has on determining NocturneMage's alignment?
What about the other players in the game? Unfortunately I'm busy and don't have time to go over everyone myself, but I'm mostly looking at Fidei86, The Shining, DoYouHas, and Palmar (excluding Half the Sky because she's very likely mafia, and NocturneMage because he was discussed earlier).
Do you feel that any of them can be put out of the "suspicious" range for now, and why? Do any of them deserve more attention?
For the record, I'm spoilering this for only you two because no one else has shown willingness to work with me. Except for Fecalfeast, who so far has been too lazy to do much real work, so he doesn't count for this. It doesn't help town if I put out a ton of text about reads that I'm not sure about when no one else cares to talk about it with me.
If there are any statements that you disagree with here, please explain. I'm very wrong, very often. Same if you want something to be elaborated on.
Wow sry too long to read / answer right now p: will do that tomorrow. Good night
On December 05 2015 09:54 Trfel wrote: I think I am going to (for now) make the assumption that Rels is town because I need him to be town. And disformation, too.
Rels, Remember that first game we played together? The Newbie game? Where I was mafia with WaveofShadow and we dominated? I looked really good for most of that game, and I was scum.
The game after that, I didn't play for ~two days, nearly got mislynched a few times I think, and ended up completely throwing the game for town. And the last two town games I've played, I was a lynch candidate throughout (though never seriously a wagon).
My point being that for some players (I'd say most), how "good" or "bad" they look (aka thread standing/status) doesn't really show their alignment.
In this game, I have been scumread a ton for my read progression at the start of Day 2. My play at this time was bad, because I made night kill analysis that had too many assumptions and was too likely to be wrong. And I changed my reads based on this analysis. However, there is no mafia motivation for doing this and at face value it does not say anything about my alignment.
Having just come off of a game as scum, I'm obviously town in this game because I often have trouble playing town after being scum, much less being mafia. That argument aside, my reads are based on completely different things this game than they are as scum. It's easy for me to look through a filter and call the person scum because of it, it's a lot harder to go through and analyze the mafia motivation and the ways that they could be town. I realize that this is self-meta and I am aware of it, but two things. First, I don't think it's something I can effectively replicate as mafia (though I've never tried). Second, it's extremely town motivated; you can evaluate my read progression for yourself, I think it's obvious that I am putting critical thought into the game and trying to consider things from every angle.
Other than the aforementioned night kill analysis, I think that my play has been fairly solid. I haven't really been scumread for anything other than the night kill analysis (and my read changes caused by it) and "playing to my scum meta", both arguments I have dismissed.
I think that DoYouHas could maybe be mafia, his activity has seemed really low, however the case on Half the Sky (assuming for the moment that Half the Sky is scum) feels genuine. I don't have as much problem with the "I got nothing on Half the Sky" then "here's why Half the Sky is mafia" because his biggest point came after the first thing was said, but I need to check and see. I'm assuming that you are town because I am. I haven't looked at Fidei86 yet, but his activity has been really high lately. I've heard people use meta to say that high activity makes him 100% town, however that's not too reliable and I should look. I think that Half the Sky is mafia. I think that LightningStrike is town for a few reasons, but there's a small chance he could be mafia. I think that The Shining is maybe town, but I haven't looked at him in a while. His play seemed very different after everyone stopped pushing him, I haven't really felt his thread presence much (though I could easily be wrong on both of these points). I liked his townread of me, but given that everyone else thinks the opposite this might actually suggest that he is mafia. And finally, I have no clue how he concluded that LightningStrike is scum in this game due to comparison with his Drams mafia filter. I guess disformation is probably town, but he could be mafia. However, I'm assuming that he is town. I think that NocturneMage is sort of mafia. I think that Fecalfeast is sort of town, but he could be mafia. I think that Palmar may be mafia.
Basically, that's seven people I think may be mafia with a reasonable enough chance (and that's not including my assumption that you two are town). Which is way too many. It is probably safe imo to consider Fecalfeast as town, leaving six people: Fidei86 (just because I haven't looked at him), Half the Sky, The Shining, NocturneMage, DoYouHas, and Palmar. Which still feels like a lot, given that I'm not completely sold on everyone else.
This makes it really hard for me to be confident in my reads because I'm suspicious of so many people? It makes me feel like I'm doing something wrong, like I'm stretching on my reasons to scumread people. I need some help/advice here?
Step 3: I think that NocturneMage is mafia. I'm either right about this with great reasons, or I'm wrong, all my reasons are garbage, and NocturneMage is the most obvious town in the game. There's nothing in between, and this annoys me. + Show Spoiler +
First of all, NocturneMage has been really really good at making himself look good and making me look really really bad. I don't know if this is indicative of him being town or mafia, but I need to say this first.
I feel that I've raised several good points against NocturneMage, and he's really good at seemingly dismissing them (without actually dismissing them) in a way that makes me look really bad (objectively bad, not necessarily alignment indicative, usually). He's able to do this because I've been saying way too much, and I haven't been focusing on the important things. Therefore, he's able to make huge arguments over things that don't matter, and ignore the important points. Or manipulate the argument into one that can't be resolved for either side. I'll probably take another try at explaining my reasons for scumreading NocturneMage soon, but making concise arguments that can't be argued into an argument that you can't prove (to everyone, not just yourself) are difficult for me.
Raising a ton of points instead of a few key ones is a really horrible habit of mine.
Basically, two questions. 1. Do my arguments for scumreading NocturneMage make any sense? Or am I completely on another planet? If the latter, then I'm probably just very wrong and a re-explanation doesn't change this. 2. Is NocturneMage obviously town for other reasons (namely, activity and thread presence) that no other argument could significantly change this? I personally don't think so, but I realize that I am biased.
Note that I still feel that my case against MoosyDoosy earlier was extremely strong, perhaps not a 99.9% read but an 80% read or so (MoosyDoosy's post-deadline posts don't fit with my mafia mindset for him, I can't ignore this). However, since Damdred didn't think so, and Damdred's a really good player, I have more doubt about that. Last time I was town, I made what I thought was a really solid case and Damdred completely disagreed and I was right, but Damdred could very well be right this time. What influence, if any, do you think MoosyDoosy's play has on determining NocturneMage's alignment?
What about the other players in the game? Unfortunately I'm busy and don't have time to go over everyone myself, but I'm mostly looking at Fidei86, The Shining, DoYouHas, and Palmar (excluding Half the Sky because she's very likely mafia, and NocturneMage because he was discussed earlier).
Do you feel that any of them can be put out of the "suspicious" range for now, and why? Do any of them deserve more attention?
For the record, I'm spoilering this for only you two because no one else has shown willingness to work with me. Except for Fecalfeast, who so far has been too lazy to do much real work, so he doesn't count for this. It doesn't help town if I put out a ton of text about reads that I'm not sure about when no one else cares to talk about it with me.
If there are any statements that you disagree with here, please explain. I'm very wrong, very often. Same if you want something to be elaborated on.
Wow sry too long to read / answer right now p: will do that tomorrow. Good night
Part 1: self meta is whatever. I actually think part of your play is suspicious. Here is why: - you talk a lot about yourself. - your displayed emotions seem over the top. - your pushes are reminding me of your play in newbie XI, where you made a lot of cases on different people then drop them when you didn't need them anymore.
Part 2: dunno bro. That's the state I am since D1.
Part 3: NM could definitely be scum here. If he's scum with HTS, they could have organised this bus from the beginning to make NM look good, since HTS could barely play, and it would be weird that NM didn't find out HTS' alignement. It kinda make sense with his weird first posts, where he seemed inclined already to find HTS scum. If they talked about it in the scum QT, it would also explain why DYH had this sudden big case on HTS after the night started. Of course this is a scum narrative. The town narrative is that NM just found HTS with a soulread.
Part 4: I think you knew where I am at for all those people right ?
I believe that you are moderately suspicious about Palmar, but I checked your filter again and I didn't see anything referencing your Palmar read recently. Can you please clarify?
I think that your case on DoYouHas does not show that he is mafia at all. I didn't think that you had any updated reasons, but I might have missed them. I've posted my thoughts about DoYouHas, based on your last post I'm assuming you still think he is mafia, why?
I'm going to go to bed now, I'll see your response in the morning. Unless I can't sleep, then I guess I'll be playing mafia straight to the lynch... ugh.
Palmar hasn't done anything to make me change my read. I obviously don't agree with your take on my case. I think in particular, his total apathy towards the lynch is scum indicative.
EPT
