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On December 04 2015 09:34 LightningStrike wrote:
Hey guys I sorry I didn't post anything after my last post but it was because of real life(my mom taken me to lighting store and out to dinner although the food was good) but seeing Damdred die confirmed my read on him at least. Yes he did scumread HTS and DYH and both of them would have good motivation to shoot him. But otherwise this game turned out to be interesting hmmm.
*Facepalm*
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On December 04 2015 09:37 NocturneMage wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 09:36 Fidei86 wrote:On December 04 2015 09:34 NocturneMage wrote:
Okay seriously, go ahead and lynch me. I truly don't give a fuck.
Just allow me to find the other two mafia first before you kill me. Nobody is talking about lynching you. I wanted to probe your thoughts a little bit, because your writing so far has been a little less ... I don't know, maybe dispassionate? Insightful? I just have never seen you go after a lynch with such abandon before. And if you don't like my reasons for pushing you a little bit, then please do scum read me. But hopefully you'll see them for what they are. That was in response to Trfel, not you. Trfel is either insane or mafia but I'll have some time to figure him out I think.
Idk. Right now LS/Trfel/Dani are my top three scum reads. I think Rels, Disfo, Shining, FF and DYH are towny. I don't like Alex's thread entry but I'm willing to give him time to adjust. I also think it's really unlikely that he's Mafia with Dani. Palmar has AFK'd a lot recently. That's where my head is at.
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I've flipped on Trfel btw because he has basically 100% scum read half the game so far, and his super in depth reads change every time, whenever someone makes the most off-hand points.
I'd lynch him last though, 1. because he could be erratic town and 2. I'd feel horrible if we mislynched him, given how much work he has put into the game (that's actually a crap reason, but there we go).
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On December 04 2015 09:43 The Shining wrote:
Fuuuuuuuuu. I'm out of thread for an hour or so. I'm at work as usual and UPS(package delivery service) just slammed me with over 40 boxes to scan, log and store. I hate holiday season.
NM I think I like where you're going with this HtS read. But you did promise a full case. Are you still going to do that?
Trfels last post on HtS read progression makes me think he's tryharding and idk if I see scumTrfel going this hard, so maybe you're both onto something with her. I'll have to read her filter for myself.
I'm liking DYH's last few posts too.
I'm also not buying the LS confirmed town because of EoD stuff. I don't want to delve too much into NK analysis because I'm not good at it but there is also reason for LS to kill Damdred and immortalize that read if he's scum.
I guess right now my most suspicious lie in HTS, LS, Fidei, Palmar. Rels and disfo is middle ground. NM, FF, Trfel, DYH likely town.
I'll be back
Just want to point out LS that you and me have basically exactly the same read list (other than you scumming me and me scumming Trfel). And you followed me onto Kush. And you were going to join me on LS when I was thinking about it.
It just seems to me that if you're Mafia, I must be very wrong in how I'm reading this game. The same must go the other way right?
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On December 04 2015 09:47 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 09:43 The Shining wrote:
Fuuuuuuuuu. I'm out of thread for an hour or so. I'm at work as usual and UPS(package delivery service) just slammed me with over 40 boxes to scan, log and store. I hate holiday season.
NM I think I like where you're going with this HtS read. But you did promise a full case. Are you still going to do that?
Trfels last post on HtS read progression makes me think he's tryharding and idk if I see scumTrfel going this hard, so maybe you're both onto something with her. I'll have to read her filter for myself.
I'm liking DYH's last few posts too.
I'm also not buying the LS confirmed town because of EoD stuff. I don't want to delve too much into NK analysis because I'm not good at it but there is also reason for LS to kill Damdred and immortalize that read if he's scum.
I guess right now my most suspicious lie in HTS, LS, Fidei, Palmar. Rels and disfo is middle ground. NM, FF, Trfel, DYH likely town.
I'll be back Just want to point out LS that you and me have basically exactly the same read list (other than you scumming me and me scumming Trfel). And you followed me onto Kush. And you were going to join me on LS when I was thinking about it. It just seems to me that if you're Mafia, I must be very wrong in how I'm reading this game. The same must go the other way right?
Uh, meant "Just want to point out TS..."
Not LS. Obv.
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Now you're just making me feel bad Alex. You speak truths regarding the lynch.
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Also, I'm going to bed now. Night all.
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Some quick further thoughts on Alex/Dani.
1. Alex is best placed to read Dani. In games he has obs'd, he has consistently been able to correctly read her. That includes games where she has been unwell/super busy.
2. Town Alex is not usually this impulsive or sure. In fact, I know that he has been seeking advice on how to try and get his scum-reads lynched.
3. Dani is unwell and he is best placed to be able to correctly gauge the impact of that on her play and also the correct level of in-game slack to apply.
The conclusion I draw from this is that it is very likely at least one of Dani/Alex is Mafia. Either Alex is Mafia and trying to get town Dani out having not had the chance to NK her, or Alex is town with a correct scum read on Dani. There is a possibility he is bussing her to get cred, particularly in circumstances where she may not be able to keep playing the game and thought the bus would be better than having someone replace into her slot.
Put another way, if Alex is town then he would NOT post something that sure unless he was absolutely convinced Dani is Mafia. In those circumstances, we should absolutely trust his read (especially as a few of us have been slightly scumming her).
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Palmar if you're not going to play the game can we please lynch you?
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I'm only semi-joking. Like, this game takes a lot of time and just stopping in every 12 hrs like you've been doing recently and giving no content is annoying. It makes you near impossible to read and it makes it less likely anyone will listen to your reads.
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On December 04 2015 21:50 Palmar wrote:
Also, if you can't figure out my alignment that's on you, not me. Town hero and eternal leader Damdred figured it out.
Wow you actually do have four pages of filter. Okay. But I do disagree with you viz you "being towny" enough. It's actually not. When you get mislynched its almost always 50% on the idiots who lynched you and 50% on you for being scummy town. That's a really important thing that lots of people forget as town.
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Let's not do NK WIFOM again please. Damdred flipping town proves he was honest, but it does NOT prove he was correct.
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Ugh. Meta reading Rels as town for effort is 100% a guaranteed, tried and tested terrible way to read him. His last couple of scum games he has outposted EVERYBODY.
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On December 04 2015 22:05 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 22:00 Fidei86 wrote:On December 04 2015 21:50 Palmar wrote:
Also, if you can't figure out my alignment that's on you, not me. Town hero and eternal leader Damdred figured it out. Wow you actually do have four pages of filter. Okay. But I do disagree with you viz you "being towny" enough. It's actually not. When you get mislynched its almost always 50% on the idiots who lynched you and 50% on you for being scummy town. That's a really important thing that lots of people forget as town. Dude... http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=10890802http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=10936906I'm literally the goddamn prophet of "if you get lynched it's your own damn fault". That ties very well into what I was saying earlier about why I should never be vigged.
Wow. Okay. Looks like I was preaching to the choir there.
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On December 04 2015 22:06 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 22:01 Fidei86 wrote:
Let's not do NK WIFOM again please. Damdred flipping town proves he was honest, but it does NOT prove he was correct. 100% town palmar based on damdred dead. You can't argue with science bitch.
Almost as convincing as BH's rng theory.
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On December 04 2015 22:07 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 22:05 Fidei86 wrote:
Ugh. Meta reading Rels as town for effort is 100% a guaranteed, tried and tested terrible way to read him. His last couple of scum games he has outposted EVERYBODY. I am only vaguely aware of rels' playstyle. In general, the cases, including the one against me, he built during the night felt unforced and genuine. I have no idea how good he is at not just posting, but actually posting decently, as mafia, but I'm going to roll with it for now. We can always lynch him later. Do you think he should be a prime candidate to be lynched today? because if you don't, then why do you have a problem with me giving him a tentative pass?
No he is not a prime candidate to get lynched. I'm sorry, I shouldn't have put it so combatively.
If you haven't played with Rels then you wouldn't necessarily know this. But I think it's important context for you in reading his posts. He massively try-hards as scum. He has the longest filter of anyone in SOTW 2. Hell, Rayn trusted him with the entire game. In resistance he never gave up even after town leader Dani had him absolutely on toast.
I don't know how I might go about catching scum Rels. But an activity-meter is absolutely not a way. Your second point about his posting seeming unforced is probably a much better way of thinking about it.
If he makes it much further I will go and re-read our Personalities game, where he carried town for three days after all the other town leaders died.
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In terms of solving the game I think we need to focus on Alex/NM, Dani/HTS, LS and Trfel. I am convinced one or both of Alex/Dani is Mafia. I do not think LS is in any way cleared by EOD stuff (there was a big switch going on and he was actually already saved when he posted GG). I love LS, but I think even he would have to admit his play so far has been garbage. Trfel is all over the place, and several people have given reasons why he could be scum. His play style is v v different to anything I've come across before.
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On December 04 2015 10:18 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 09:47 Fidei86 wrote:On December 04 2015 09:43 The Shining wrote:
Fuuuuuuuuu. I'm out of thread for an hour or so. I'm at work as usual and UPS(package delivery service) just slammed me with over 40 boxes to scan, log and store. I hate holiday season.
NM I think I like where you're going with this HtS read. But you did promise a full case. Are you still going to do that?
Trfels last post on HtS read progression makes me think he's tryharding and idk if I see scumTrfel going this hard, so maybe you're both onto something with her. I'll have to read her filter for myself.
I'm liking DYH's last few posts too.
I'm also not buying the LS confirmed town because of EoD stuff. I don't want to delve too much into NK analysis because I'm not good at it but there is also reason for LS to kill Damdred and immortalize that read if he's scum.
I guess right now my most suspicious lie in HTS, LS, Fidei, Palmar. Rels and disfo is middle ground. NM, FF, Trfel, DYH likely town.
I'll be back Just want to point out LS that you and me have basically exactly the same read list (other than you scumming me and me scumming Trfel). And you followed me onto Kush. And you were going to join me on LS when I was thinking about it. It just seems to me that if you're Mafia, I must be very wrong in how I'm reading this game. The same must go the other way right? Actually your thinking about joining the LS wagon is why I was hesitant and asking so many questions beforehand. I was weighing my suspicions on you vs the case and points on him. As for having a lot of the same reads, if I'm being honest, I'm never too confident in them before first scumflip, as my association cases and late game play is where I excel at. D1/D2, I'm used to being wrong and sometimes scum siding on reads without realizing it. So even with our reads being similar, you're in my suspicious pile until I read your filter and can figure out how you arrived to those reads. As for the Trfel read, he's got 8 pages at the start of D2 and 8 pages total his last scum game. Like I've pointed a few issues I had with some of his reads and posts but he hasn't backed down from me and his willingness to explain and then put in work on his reads, like the stuff on HTS, is giving me trouble on where the scum motivation could come from. He's been under a lot of pressure this game and even though there are some similarities from his last scumgame, one thing that recently stands out to me is the amount of sensible content he's putting out, even under pressure. I don't agree with everything, and had issues with his dropping his NM scumread pretty easily, but its more about the way he's done it and explained it. I could see it coming from town trying to evaluate what's in the thread and I thinking he could be wrong, after being wrong on Damdred. And following onto kush was a risky play that I took because I didn't like his switch. But you being the instigator before me is one of the main reasons I'm still suspicious. Like I do take some responsibility for it but it also surprised me how many more people were willing to follow once I switched, instead of when you did. Like if you're scum, its possible your team waits for a town to switch(like me) and then pin the responsibility on me(like HtS did).
*facepalm*
TS is your reason for rejecting my argument really because you don't trust your reads because it is early? What makes you think town-Fidei would have necessarily any better or keener insights than you? We're all working off imperfect information here, but the fact that we are responding to everything exactly the same way makes me give you serious town cred.
Also, doing yourself down to de-value your reads is a Mafia trait. If you don't have confidence in yourself nobody will follow you.
Also, re the lynch, I have openly admitted that I was one of the first to move, and was probably one of the key reasons it happened. Unless I'm scum with LS then I don't see why scum-me would bother. But more than that, isn't it incredibly unlikely that within 3 minutes I'd come up with a plan that relied upon townies following me, in order to achieve something? Like, I don't think that responsibility for a late moving lynch is AI by itself. If LS flips red then I admit I look worse (but otoh I think he probably is Mafia, I just got carried away in the moment, and was wrong).
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On December 04 2015 22:20 Palmar wrote:
I would like your input on
a) do you believe my perception of her filter is correct
b) do you think it's relevant
Hmmmmm.
I think your perception is entirely correct.
I have played with Dani twice now I think, and GM'd her once. By way of background, she cares a lot about this game and always plays hard and to win. She has played through some tough personal times.
When we were town together in Newbie Mafia XII (I think) she found scum EOD1 and then carried town the rest of the way. She said something when she was casing scum reads, "maybe the noose will tell us the truth" or similar.
I don't remember much of her Personalities game because she was N1'd, but I remember making a long post saying why I thought she was town. I should probably go and look it up. But what I would say about those games is that she had tonnes of energy. She was scum-hunting relentlessly. Even in Resistance, where I knew her alignment, she fought through a Rayn tunnel and nearly solved at the end.
Here, it's not clear she is actually trying to solve at all. I do think there is a reasonable chance that she's playing sub-optimally because she is unwell. But she has actually had decent bouts of activity, and has a decent length filter. So I'm not sure how much water that excuse holds.
Also, and this is a point I want to emphasise, THERE IS NO WAY TOWN ALEX COMES INTO THIS GAME AND HARD SCUM READS DANI UNLESS HE IS 1,000% CONVINCED SHE IS MAFIA. I would bet next month's salary on his read either being correct, or alternatively him being Mafia and trying to get Dani killed (either as a bus or because she could out him).
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*nods*
There is something off about Alex's play as well. But I am much less experienced with him than I am with Dani.
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EPT
