EPTOn July 14 2015 12:23 rsoultin wrote:
explain your thought process at EoD1, ruxx
explain your thought process at EoD1, ruxx
Are you refering to the voting between MZ and BM?
TL Mafia LXXI: Gaiden - Page 18
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ruXxar
Norway5668 Posts
Are you refering to the voting between MZ and BM? | ||
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ruXxar
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On July 14 2015 12:23 rsoultin wrote: explain your thought process at EoD1, ruxx So here's my thought process around majority lynching: We do not win as town by not lynching. If you do not lynch people, you can not win the game. It's that simple. My #1 priority every day is to make sure that we lynch someone. The only thing I am 100% certain of this game is that I'm town. If the option is between lynching someone who in my mind is 70% town or not lynching at all, then I'd rather lynch the guy that is 70% town. As for the case between BM and MZ, it didn't really have an opinion either way. BM hadn't said anything and MZ started talking too late for me to form a solid opinion on him. Both were acceptable lynches in my mind. | ||
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ruXxar
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On July 14 2015 13:18 rsoultin wrote: it bugged me then and it still bugs me now that you were making so much damn noise while doing nothing about it and essentially disappearing during the shenanigans. admittedly it means less knowing that both were town, but it still feels like you were just saying something because you felt you needed to say something anyway, i'm out, guys. someone look at this and tell me if i'm tunneling or not, because this is what caught my eye (along with that stiff tone thing that i mentioned earler lol >< but i don't know how to really show that) when reviewing ruxx's filter Do you call that one comment noise? Also, I was not constantly refreshing the vote thread checking the vote count. Either way the day 1 lynch was a terrible mess. I hope we don't wait until the last 30 minutes again to pick our lynch target because such chaos undeniably increases the chance of scum snap pushing mis lynches. | ||
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On July 14 2015 14:54 Trfel wrote: Does no one else understand it? RuXxar changed his top scumread from me (which he was pretty confident in) to Clarity_nl on the basis that Clarity_nl's opening post about Holyflare being town and them not being scum together looked planned ahead of time. Thus, they both have to be scum. This is the only reason for his scumread on Clarity_nl. But, ruXxar wasn't scumreading Holyflare, and didn't seem at all interested in Holyflare's alignment. He only asked Holyflare one question and didn't state any read on him. But ruXxar's top scum read, Clarity_nl, who he was voting, only applied as long as Holyflare was also scum. I have a ton of trouble seeing this come from town. Even if Holyflare is town. Here's my voting pattern start of day 1 : Trfel -> Clarity -> Trfel Here's a summary of my scum-reading logic for those votes: The first vote on trfel was meh. I was in a jokey mood and saw him make the same opening post video as in the newbie game. Put my vote on him for the moment. I read clarity's opening post and get a bit suspicious. When clarity uses the "if I was mafia" excuse I thought that it sounded like she had this planned out even more. Switched my vote to clarity. It's possible she's scum with HF, but she was the one acting scummy independently of HF, so I focus on her first. I see trfel making his first big post, which I thought looked a bit forced, I didn't like it. A little later I'm getting this idea that clarity and HF could possibly be masoned together, willing to give her more time. I change my vote back to trfel, since he still hasn't made any contributions that I liked. It's incorrect to say that my scum-read on clarity only applied as long as HF is scum. I scum-read her because her excuse sounded pre-planned. Her actions were scummy on their own and didn't necessitate HF also being scum. I saw 2 options : - She's mafia alone or possibly mafia with HF. - She's masoned with HF. | ||
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On July 14 2015 22:05 Clarity_nl wrote: I AM A MAN!!!!! teehee I can't help myself :p | ||
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On July 14 2015 17:35 Trfel wrote: As of page 45 in the thread, ruXxar is suspicious of everyone who has been seriously scumread: Trfel, Clarity_nl, WaveofShadow, and ritoky. He also made a post earlier that seemed to accept the LightningStrike scumread, though he never mentioned LightningStrike since. Basically every single lynch candidate at this point. I find it especially funny that he left ritoky off of his scum list and then added him at marvellosity's suggestion. And the way that he immediately showed interest in KelsierSC's "xP" analysis on rsoultin, but didn't really commit to scumreading rsoultin. His earlier townread on rsoultin doesn't seem to have been considered. This seems very suspicious by itself, but when compared to his play in Student Mafia 11, it is even worse. RuXxar was far more willing to townread people there, and never threw out this many scumreads (relative to the game size, of course). While I only gave one example earlier of how ruXxar was scumreading Clarity_nl after his supposed realization that he could be mason with Holyflare, ruXxar was very clearly scumreading Clarity_nl for a significant amount of time after this. And there's no mention of Holyflare at all. I'm completely convinced that ruXxar lied about his mason read on Holyflare and Clarity_nl. And while lying doesn't necessarily make someone mafia, I'm having a lot of trouble accepting this coming from town. The moment I decided I wouldn't lynch clarity because of them possibly being masons was at this point: On July 07 2015 07:47 ruXxar wrote: A thought just struck me about HF and clarity. Willing to give clarity some more time. Top 2 scum atm: Trfel Rsoultin ##Vote Trfel I'd like to see some quotes to back up the bolded statement, because it does not fit with my own perception of the game. | ||
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On July 14 2015 22:08 Clarity_nl wrote: So anyway what changed? Or do you still think I'm scum? Can't really remember your reads at all tbh. I don't have you as a priority lynch at this point. The moment I started getting a real townread on you was N1. I really liked the way you conducted yourself when you started reasoning about the cops, the red-checks and your case on milo. It looked like you were really trying to solve the game. I've for the most part written off your opening posts as less relevant and like how you've progressed throughout the game. | ||
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I thought it wasn't, so I tried to give very subtle hints about it, same way I wanted to give a subtle hint to oats about geript being a PR. You can see examples of that here: On July 08 2015 14:28 ruXxar wrote: Clarity was one of my top scum reads early on. I dropped his vote due to a personal theory of mine that I'd rather not share. I'm going to re-evaluate him tomorrow. Ebh I also haven't been tracking since his opening post. Didn't care for his blue hunting obviously, but didn't strike me as particularly scummy outside of that. I haven't been keeping up on everyone today a lot of noise towards the lynch. I'll be reevaluating people throughout the night now that things slowed done a bit. I'll give you my updated reads on them tomorrow and other people I find noteworthy tomorrow. Going to bed for now, good night  | ||
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I'd be interested in hearing your updated opinion after you've read the whole thread and not just the first 50 pages. | ||
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On July 14 2015 23:44 Half the Sky wrote: Writing style was the giveaway for me. Using that meta, agenda could be traced in one of his posts where he talked about fear reading palmar and tracing that to MZ but why did he selectively exclude others that would have known palmar? (Marvellosity, HF....or even discounting Damdred, as HF called him out on) This doesn't make marv/hf/etc mafia but why he just pinged mz alone as a palmar fear read when others were in that bunch. Would Clarity qualify as potentially needing to fear read Palmar (since his name was brought up?) I'm still townreading him btw, but this is my first game ever with him. So hear's my little rabbithole theory about the palmar kill. The scum team must contain at least 1 person that knows palmar from before or feared him for whatever reason from before this game. I really doubt that anything he did this game would be enough for anyone to NK him(I certainly don't remember anything he's said). There were several stronger opinionated people at the time. Here's the other part of it: I find it reasonable to assume that the scum team is led by the more experienced players. IF we assume that damdred is one of the players with the most reason to fear palmar, and led the NK on him, then it could be deduced that damdred is the "mafia leader" and that the mafia team consists of less experienced players than him. The fact that damdred flipped is kind of bad in a sense because if a newer player flipped mafia, then we could assume that the mafia team contained at least one experienced player that knew palmar. This is as strawman as it gets, but that's my thoughts around it. | ||
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Is that like OMGUS? | ||
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On July 15 2015 00:05 Half the Sky wrote: Dick move analysis - marv explained it to me D1. Gotcha, never heard that term before. | ||
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ruXxar
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Once we have 2 mafia flipped we can start analyizing inter-mafia behavior and try to glean some information from how they interact(or don't!) with each other. Until then it's sort of hard to draw any associative patterns between people. I've looked more deeply into damdred's filter to see if I can find anything peculiar. This is all from before geript claimed he tracked damdred: + Show Spoiler + Read progression: Scumreads(strength): LS - (very strong). Clarity (strong). Ritoky (medium) Trfel (weak) Wave (very weak). Town reads: Ruxx Marv Kelsier HF HTS Palmar We can see how he had both ritoky and LS in his scum-reads day 1. and they were 2 of his strongest scum reads. Looking at this I find it unlikely that damdred would hard bus his partner so in my mind it's even less likely that clarity is scum here. As for the town-reads I'll analyze them after tonight since at least kelsier is flipping and maybe one more. | ||
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ruXxar
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Not sure at all. It wouldn't surprise me though. Like I've mentioned earlier he's acted really weird after D1, and his filter after D1 is really awful imo. | ||
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On July 15 2015 01:38 Half the Sky wrote: Alright you did say "if he's mafia" but second sentence initially led me to believe you are expecting KSC to flip as mafia. But given how you've been posting some obvious statements through this game I'm probably wrong and you're doing the same here too. I see how the second paragraph could be interpreted as related to the first paragraph, but they're meant as separate statements. | ||
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ruXxar
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Can you qualify your scum-read of me? | ||
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If all 4 flip town we're in a really bad spot :/. We'll be down to a 10 vs 4 situation. Then with one more mislynch it's 9v4. 2 NK's brings it down to 7v4 and we're in LYLO. | ||
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I don't feel good about it but in a way it sort of clears up things. LS said that he's fairly confident there's 1 mafia between you and rsoul, so if you flip green then we're probably going to lynch rsoul I hope. | ||
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On July 15 2015 04:27 Holyflare wrote: if you believe that ls gave obiwanshinobi his gun then you might actually be mafia I don't have a reason to believe that outside of obi strongly alluding to it himself. If i was to guess I'd say LS gave his gun to rsoul. No need to speculate though, all shall be clear soon. | ||
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