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Ok so town!milo has an interesting point of view here. He's the only person that knows he is cop while everyone else is in doubt.
Ritoky claimed 1-shot cop halfway through day 1 when pressure started to build on him, milo claimed 2-shot cop near the end of day 1 when it looked like he was the main wagon.
Day 2 starts and ritoky immediately claims he was roleblocked. town!milo was roleblocked. Obviously town would never roleblock him (having a JK defending him is not a thought anyone would have) so he should be feeling like ritoky is very likely lying at this point.
However, somehow his first instinct when hearing about ritoky being roleblocked as well as him, is to:
On July 09 2015 07:41 milo109 wrote:
Red on Clarity.
Test Clarity and Holyflare?
On July 09 2015 07:53 milo109 wrote:
I was roleblocked by the way. I got reactions from the two I wanted. I'll post my thoughts after dinner.
So right away I have trouble putting this in town!milo's actions. He should be out to lynch ritoky and push him, not do some fake check/just kidding I was roleblocked and then leave to go look at responses later. Keep in mind that town!milo believes he was roleblocked by scum, so faking a redcheck on me would not make HF or myself slip up as scum, so the whole thing doesn't make much sense.
He comes back and Damdred has claimed JK on ritoky at this point:
On July 09 2015 11:14 milo109 wrote:
OK... Well. I'll look out at the reactions later. First I need to figure out this Damdred stuff. The problem is I think I might even believe Ritoky. Which means Damdred would have to be mafia. But I was RBed. Almost has to be by mafia. Which means Damdred is town. Okay. Ritoky is like confirmed mafia in my world. But that claim is so odd. Whatever. Get to see the lynch.
Quick note, as to why I reaction tested Clarity in particular, I thought he was the most scummy after MZ and HF. Hoped to see confirmation. But that is totally thrown out of whack by this.
So I never get a check this entire game btw. Ugh.
Okay so this all makes sense from town!milo's perspective: "I now know that ritoky was roleblocked by damdred. I know that I was roleblocked by mafia. Making the reasonable assumption that scum do not have two roleblockers, this means that Damdred is in fact the town JK." However he then says Ritoky is now confirmed scum.
This would make night actions as follows:
1 scum kp on Palmar
1 scum kp on marv
damdred JK > ritoky
scum RB > milo
However, milo overlooks that town!milo would consider that scum roleblocked him, damdred JK > ritoky and scum kp > ritoky. This is what makes sense if both him and ritoky are cops, otherwise scum would just let ritoky get a check off. This should be a consideration for town!milo and only for him, because he is confirmed cop. He claimed he believed ritoky but he can't be cop, yet didn't see the obvious night actions that would have ritoky be cop.
On July 09 2015 12:06 milo109 wrote:
Lol. What if Ritoky is mafia and Damdred is bad town and managed to somehow stop a kp. I know. It didn't happen. But would be hilarious.
How does town!milo want to believe that ritoky is town, but he does not see that scum could have roleblocked him and shot ritoky??
It's because scum!milo is pretending to be town!milo.
On July 09 2015 11:26 milo109 wrote:
Geript will probably die in the night. Either Damdred is JK or you people lynch me.
In whatever world town!milo lives, either there are two scum roleblockers (and one of them is Damdred) or Damdred is JK.
This should mean to him that if Damdred is JK he is less likely to get lynched because a roleblock on him makes much more sense, however he says the opposite.
On July 09 2015 12:24 milo109 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2015 12:22 Damdred wrote:
Like, after I flip though just off of a gut reaction
Milo is sorta soft defending me idk why he keeps saying oh I don't believe this at all. But I'm going to defend this guy because people make mistakes. It just feels off to me this game.
Look at rsoultin who soft pushed me yesterday and part of the night and never really gives a read on me before the check besides soft I don't like x. It just feels mafia at this point with everything going on, I think hf is town and usually when hf and RS are town they shit fight. I think could be a scum here.
Oats has been super opportunistic all game first with geript or rotating around, now he's focusing only on me. While I don't think this is that indicative its interesting and should be looked at.
Geripts claim is real it feels like, I believe ritokys claim at this point over mills.
just a few random thoughts while I'm on break Bro. My fate is tied to yours. Of course I'm defending you. You're just making it hard.
Milo is correct here. However he did not say "you have to be town because of the information I have", he says "my fate is tied to you". His phrasing throughout day 2 has been like this.
- Ritoky is like confirmed mafia in my world.
- Unless another town RBer wants to out, or mafia has two RBer, that's what I have to believe, odd as it is.
- So.. I have to defend Damdred here, despite the fact that he is the worst JK ever if he is one. People make mistakes..
Milo is talking as if he is considering someone else's point of view: scum!milo is trying to think like town!milo.
tl;dr: Milo is scum. He did not call out ritoky immediately when he said he was roleblocked, despite not believing in two scum roleblockers. He is having trouble figuring out how town!milo would view the game and he makes statements that show he does not really believe what he's saying but he's "forced to" go along this path.
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Also this:
On July 09 2015 11:17 milo109 wrote:
##vote: Damdred
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Drop what you're doing and read+comment on my case, ty.
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It doesn't mean Damdred is 100% scum roleblocker, scum could have shot Palmar/ritoky. I like the milo lynch first, that was if Damdred is JK he will get shot or roleblocked or whatever. I'm super confident in my case.
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On July 09 2015 14:21 ritoky wrote:
Meh, I really think milo is the cop for a absolutely stupid reason and I haven't really budged on it.
I am super tired, but as of right now I am leaning towards believing all the claims and lynching outside them. I am also SUPER wary of HF not being targeted N1...but if it was something like Palmar and Marv as the targets I suppose I can hold off on that paranoia 1 more day.
So this is the only world that can be true in:
Scum kp palmar + ritoky.
damdred JK > ritoky
Scum roleblock > milo
That's the conclusion I got to too, it's the whole basis of my case. Milo does not recognize this is the only world that exists for town!milo other than scum having two roleblockers, which he himself says is not possible.
How can you say both you and milo are cops and then expect scum to shoot palmar+marv and give one of you guys a check.
They would only do this if they were able to roleblock both of you, which is only true if damdred is mafia roleblocker.
You should absolutely not want to lynch outside of the claims.
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On July 09 2015 14:25 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2015 14:21 ritoky wrote:
Meh, I really think milo is the cop for a absolutely stupid reason and I haven't really budged on it.
I am super tired, but as of right now I am leaning towards believing all the claims and lynching outside them. I am also SUPER wary of HF not being targeted N1...but if it was something like Palmar and Marv as the targets I suppose I can hold off on that paranoia 1 more day. So this is the only world that can be true in: Scum kp palmar + ritoky. damdred JK > ritoky Scum roleblock > milo That's the conclusion I got to too, it's the whole basis of my case. Milo does not recognize this is the only world that exists for town!milo other than scum having two roleblockers, which he himself says is not possible. How can you say both you and milo are cops and then expect scum to shoot palmar+marv and give one of you guys a check. They would only do this if they were able to roleblock both of you, which is only true if damdred is mafia roleblocker. You should absolutely not want to lynch outside of the claims.
In short:
1. Milo scum, Damdred scum.
2. Milo scum, Damdred JK
3. Milo town, Damdred scum.
There is no version in which both are town unless scum were going to let ritoky have a check.
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On July 09 2015 14:30 ritoky wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2015 14:25 Clarity_nl wrote:On July 09 2015 14:21 ritoky wrote:
Meh, I really think milo is the cop for a absolutely stupid reason and I haven't really budged on it.
I am super tired, but as of right now I am leaning towards believing all the claims and lynching outside them. I am also SUPER wary of HF not being targeted N1...but if it was something like Palmar and Marv as the targets I suppose I can hold off on that paranoia 1 more day. So this is the only world that can be true in: Scum kp palmar + ritoky. damdred JK > ritoky Scum roleblock > milo That's the conclusion I got to too, it's the whole basis of my case. Milo does not recognize this is the only world that exists for town!milo other than scum having two roleblockers, which he himself says is not possible. How can you say both you and milo are cops and then expect scum to shoot palmar+marv and give one of you guys a check. They would only do this if they were able to roleblock both of you, which is only true if damdred is mafia roleblocker. You should absolutely not want to lynch outside of the claims. scum kp -> marv + palmar damdred jk -> rit scum rb -> milo also works and allowing a cop to get a check in a 25 man game isn't a horrible thing...i would consider letting a solitary check through if i were mafia especially considering the credibility of both cops. 23 people to investigate, probably 5 mafia ~20% success rate of check? Not a bad gamble, + screaming over them to potentially extend 1 phase? A lot more worthwhile risk imo than people saying I could have carried kp last night. hold on though let me re-read and reconsider your post see if it touches me differently.
In your scenario, scum doesn't know damdred the town JK is gonna JK rit.
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I love ritoky as town now.
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Oats, thoughts?
OWS are you here or what?
I gtg soon.
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On July 09 2015 14:57 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2015 14:48 Clarity_nl wrote:
Oats, thoughts?
OWS are you here or what?
I gtg soon. Im not really understanding your case. Basically Milo shouldve instantly thought that Ritoky was mafia because he claimed roleblock right?
Yes. Barring that, since he said he believed ritoky was town he should have been able to figure out in what scenario that was possible, but he did not.
Also tone and stuff.
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On July 09 2015 19:50 marvellosity wrote:
the problem for damdred (and milo) is that it just makes a lot of sense for mafia not to kill into the cop claims, rb the one that is legit and hope for mass confusion the next day. that seems like the correct play from mafia PoV.
I don't get this. Why shoot Harkon over either the "second cop" or you, if there are two cops?
On July 09 2015 19:16 Harkon wrote:
How likely is it that claimed the fucking JK over mafia anyways? JK is literally the only role damdred could have possibly ckaimed
This post makes no sense. His claim makes sense as both town and scum so it must be scum?
I mean whatever I believe your vet claim I think. That said it's not impossible for scum to have shot marv and now use that opportunity to claim vet but I don't think it would be Harkon as you've generally been read town by everyone.
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On July 09 2015 19:58 ruXxar wrote:
The thing I don't understand though, Is that if he pursued his clarity lynch and he flipped green, then milo would be outed the next day.
So it's a terrible play from mafia perspective to claim a red check on a townie.
Nah he was obviously gonna withdraw the statement. It's just that it would never have accomplish anything if he were town. As scum however he can twist it into "Lol Clarity's reaction so fake", however then the JK claim happens and he just kinda goes "the reactions don't matter now because.... reasons"
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On July 09 2015 20:01 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2015 19:59 Clarity_nl wrote:On July 09 2015 19:50 marvellosity wrote:
the problem for damdred (and milo) is that it just makes a lot of sense for mafia not to kill into the cop claims, rb the one that is legit and hope for mass confusion the next day. that seems like the correct play from mafia PoV.
I don't get this. Why shoot Harkon over either the "second cop" or you, if there are two cops? see bolded obviously hitting me is/was a bad idea.
I mean maybe I'm just bad but that's something that can easily backfire. I think ritoky with a red check on say... Vivax would have been able to pull town around.
Like when milo claimed a red check on me HF immediately went "always killing clarity first here always"
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On July 09 2015 20:05 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2015 20:04 Clarity_nl wrote:On July 09 2015 20:01 marvellosity wrote:On July 09 2015 19:59 Clarity_nl wrote:On July 09 2015 19:50 marvellosity wrote:
the problem for damdred (and milo) is that it just makes a lot of sense for mafia not to kill into the cop claims, rb the one that is legit and hope for mass confusion the next day. that seems like the correct play from mafia PoV.
I don't get this. Why shoot Harkon over either the "second cop" or you, if there are two cops? see bolded obviously hitting me is/was a bad idea. I mean maybe I'm just bad but that's something that can easily backfire. I think ritoky with a red check on say... Vivax would have been able to pull town around. Like when milo claimed a red check on me HF immediately went "always killing clarity first here always" i don't quite understand what you're saying
I think I would never agree to letting a cop get a check off as scum if both cops were known.. to "cause confusion". Seems super convoluted to me.
Like what town medic is gonna guess between ritoky/milo and protect one?
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No I think there has to be scum between ritoky/milo and because there's no missing KP that means milo is scum unless we're living in bizzaro world of scum having two roleblocks and used them on both cops.
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Eh it doesn't matter much. Not sure why I'm arguing so hard when I guess he kinda has a point. Like I don't agree but whatever, we're talking about the fact that "if there's two cops" which there isn't cause milo is scum.
If we lynch into Damdred or milo I'm happy. MZ can wait.
Trying to figure out if all three can be scum... The associative stuff between milo/MZ kinda says so, I guess I should wait for flips
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What do you think of Vivax, marv? I remember him being better than just showing up, appearing to do things, and then fuck right off.
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On July 09 2015 20:32 ruXxar wrote:
I only see two plays from a mafia milo,
Either he claims a green check and tries to survive, or he claims a green check to take one person down with him.
Claiming red and then rescinding is like the worst mafia play, now he gains nothing.
He's just claiming roleblocked with a "pro-town move that won't accomplish anything".
MZ was on the chopping block, not him. Why not claim RB n1 and get a check n2?
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On July 09 2015 20:38 milo109 wrote:
So after Ritoky's last posts, I believe he is town. Which means either town roleblocked me or Damdred is JK. I actually think Damdred stopes KP
This means you think Harkon is scum, right?
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EPT
