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2/60
I knew that was a scumslip when I called it. It did not add up.
Oats: Assuming we had a medic.
Quick look at Palmar's filter:
Soft pushes on marvellosity and JAT. Soft push on marv becomes a "100% read"
Hard pushes on sandroba followed by some weird u-turn flip to confirmed town. And he still votes sandroba lol.
The JAT read is a terrible read IMO.
Palmar's reads are all over the place, much like Titanic. Made it really hard to piece anything together for the rest of his scumteam tbh. I learnt you can't really rely on that - he's good enough not to leave too many tracks like that.
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3/60
I agree with Trfel.
GlowingBear, please shoot marvellosity.
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On May 14 2015 09:20 Stutters695 wrote:
So in your last N1 post HtS, you had me as a scum lean despite commenting about how much easier I am to read d2. What changed?
You also omitted Palmar from your list.
4/60
Was pretty sure I mentioned it when I repsonded to sandroba -
If I had to scumread you for D1 it was your commenting on the pardon (saying it was shitty or whatever) and not doing anything about it and your N1 posting specially the one where you said "BH's posting was pretty disappointing",
I omitted a lot of people in that legacy post as I was squeezing it in prior to EoN. Palmar I was holding off on and he was under review, unfortunately I had never gotten to him.
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5/60
On May 14 2015 09:32 VisceraEyes wrote:
Anyone calling marv mafia is wrong, just put it out of your minds.
VE, this is the primary case for marv being mafia.
On May 13 2015 23:38 rsoultin wrote:
Now...because I need to finish my term papers and do not want to forget...I do have a crappy association element involved in my read on Blazinghand:
Marvellosity did not react to being nuked. It took me awhile to really notice this, but Marvellosity, who flames people for scumreading him when he's town and loses his shit did not react to being nuked. That suggests to me that the nuke would not succeed. He also did not flame me for scumreading him early, but instead criticized (I believe) Oatsmaster (could be OWS if my memory is failing me) for defending him. This is a very rational response since he didn't look town at all early game however Marvellosity is typically not rational at all about being scumread.
I've had a townread on Bill Murray for awhile. Some of it is tone. Some of it is I liked the thought process going into some of his reads (whether I agreed with it or not). That left Blazinghand. Why is Marvellosity not afraid of the nuke? Not angry about it? Blazinghand will anti-nuke it. And he did.
Now, admittedly recently it occurred to me that Blazinghand possibly could be town (despite his complete lack of contributions to Day One while riding that towncred) and scum simply has an anti-nuke role, too. It is highly likely that scum could have such a role for obvious reasons.
Add on to this that Marvellosity started a train on Blazinghand, then came back in and switched for very poor reasons back to Vivax, despite stating earlier that Vivax looked better than both Xatalos and Blazinghand. Even if we accept that a "baked" Marvellosity really thought that Blazinghand's posting looked so good at EoD, where did the Xatalos read go? Apparently it fell off the face of the earth.
I still am highly suspicious of Marvellosity and Blazinghand for the above-stated reasons. I choose to post this now because I want to make sure this gets into the thread in case I don't have time for full reads, as I really need to get my schoolwork done.
To round out my current scumreads, Xatalos looks terrible by association, and I think that Damdred's read on him is probably correct given past history (Carol). I also noticed how he seems to pluck up others' reads, not just thread sentiment. (KelsierSC's read on me is one example.)
On May 13 2015 23:59 rsoultin wrote:
Quite simply, following a logical train of thought on the presumption that I am right on both you and Blazinghand, you pushed a lynch on your scum buddy to be able to say that you pushed a lynch on your scum buddy if he eventually flipped. You did not follow through. Now why could that be? Yes, that looks scummy. You usually do not do obviously scummy things as scum...you're usually aware of how you look. However, if Blazinghand flips scum you and Trfel will immediately come under suspicion. So yes, I think it's quite possible for you to both push him and then go out of your way to protect him, despite how bad it looks, if you are scum together.
It is quite feasible and certainly not reason enough to clear either of you.
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5/40
On May 14 2015 10:36 GlowingBear wrote:
I'm shooting no one until the kingmaker claims
This is my last post for the night.
I hate claiming as a blue role, but I am the Praetorian Guard, or the kingmaker.
My requirement was to select three players I was confident of being town. The player who was highest on my list that survived the evening would be made the executioner for the day cycle.
I selected you (GB), Trfel and Rasputin as my picks. All survived. You were #3, Trfel 4 and Rasputin 11.
I will also reiterate that I would like to see marvellosity shot.
Sidenote: I guess that also explains why Vivax's role dropping didn't make any sense....I'm not town vanilla this game obviously.
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6/60
EBWOP - I'll do another thorough analysis again GB but......
Xatalos looked better from the voting, but I still have reservations on him.
I wouldn't shoot OWS, obviously not Stutters.
LS is 50/50.
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7/60
I could compromise on a Blazinghand or an Oats shot. Obviously I didn't like them either. I would prioritise marv over those two, but yeah one of the reasons I picked all you three was because your reads mostly reflected what I had in mind.
I have a wedding this weekend but I will try and get some analysis if you feel we need to split hairs or if you're not as sure of one as another.
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8/60
On May 14 2015 10:54 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 14 2015 10:49 GlowingBear wrote:
I won't shoot you now oats. Convince me I shouldn't shoot you, because if you don't, I'll do it tomorrow I might as well be a cop with 4 checks d1. Don't shoot oats.
Is there anyone you recommend he shoots?
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9/60
On May 14 2015 10:58 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 14 2015 10:55 Half the Sky wrote:8/60 On May 14 2015 10:54 batsnacks wrote:On May 14 2015 10:49 GlowingBear wrote:
I won't shoot you now oats. Convince me I shouldn't shoot you, because if you don't, I'll do it tomorrow I might as well be a cop with 4 checks d1. Don't shoot oats. Is there anyone you recommend he shoots? VE can't be a bad shot statistically speaking... I'm not really sure yet. Seriously though do not shoot RS, JAT, or oats.
Right now, the only one who would fall under the complete lurker category is ROL.
(In case you missed it, Stutters claimed the vig shot on Palmar.)
Onegu is someone I can't figure out right now. LS is 50/50, I have a scumlean on him.
In any case, waiting until tomorrow for sure makes complete sense.
I can understand the argument to eliminate a lurker and I certainly won't lose the plot if that's what happened, but I'd really prefer to hit someone that is a most likely scum.
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10/60
On May 14 2015 11:03 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 14 2015 11:03 Half the Sky wrote:9/60 On May 14 2015 10:58 batsnacks wrote:On May 14 2015 10:55 Half the Sky wrote:8/60 On May 14 2015 10:54 batsnacks wrote:On May 14 2015 10:49 GlowingBear wrote:
I won't shoot you now oats. Convince me I shouldn't shoot you, because if you don't, I'll do it tomorrow I might as well be a cop with 4 checks d1. Don't shoot oats. Is there anyone you recommend he shoots? VE can't be a bad shot statistically speaking... I'm not really sure yet. Seriously though do not shoot RS, JAT, or oats. Right now, the only one who would fall under the complete lurker category is ROL. (In case you missed it, Stutters claimed the vig shot on Palmar.) Onegu is someone I can't figure out right now. LS is 50/50, I have a scumlean on him. In any case, waiting until tomorrow for sure makes complete sense. I can understand the argument to eliminate a lurker and I certainly won't lose the plot if that's what happened, but I'd really prefer to hit someone that is a most likely scum. You never answered me do you scum read me?
Ever so slightly, based on the nature of your posts. I get the impression Bats, that you are scared of me (operative words in bold in below quote).
On May 14 2015 08:41 Half the Sky wrote:60/65 3 from Bats, 2 from OneguI'm back, gonna cram as much stuff I can in the last half hour here.... BatsI wasn't clear on why you were voting Sandroba. I'm not clear on where you stand now. You'd probably be in all honesty a slight scumlean at this point. I wasn't even scumreading you (Sandroba was) the first time you asked this and you seemed worried I was going to push your lynch.
This go, I just did a voting analysis even though I had stronger reads on other people for other reasons. I get a paranoia feeling from you, I don't recall you asking questions like this before. [...]
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11/60
On May 14 2015 11:10 batsnacks wrote:
Okay so VE and HTS are both very decent, high risk, high reward shots. They will have to be dealt with eventually though either via claim or flip.
Are you not reading the thread? I claimed on the last page.
On May 14 2015 10:43 Half the Sky wrote:5/40 Show nested quote +On May 14 2015 10:36 GlowingBear wrote:
I'm shooting no one until the kingmaker claims This is my last post for the night. I hate claiming as a blue role, but I am the Praetorian Guard, or the kingmaker. My requirement was to select three players I was confident of being town. The player who was highest on my list that survived the evening would be made the executioner for the day cycle. I selected you (GB), Trfel and Rasputin as my picks. All survived. You were #3, Trfel 4 and Rasputin 11. I will also reiterate that I would like to see marvellosity shot. Sidenote: I guess that also explains why Vivax's role dropping didn't make any sense....I'm not town vanilla this game obviously.
If I'm missing something, call me out on it.
It's after 3am so I'm out for the night, but I'll do some filter diving so I can help get the best possible shot off tomorrow morning.
(And no Bats, do not be paranoid, I am not going to advocate shooting you.)
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12/60
On May 15 2015 02:30 batsnacks wrote:This would have worked so much better if jat had waited till AFTER my lunch break to shoot rs.
Or if he'd re-read the thread....you checked/cleared Rasputin last night my time. Not happy at all with that shot, we lost another lynch that could have very easily been prevented or been more useful towards someone else.
Still catching up. Also see that BH was town, unfortunate but that needed to be resolved.
Obi, you had a question for me I just missed, I moved you up as more likely town based on your N1 posting.
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13/60
On May 15 2015 02:51 VisceraEyes wrote:
I might prefer a batsnacks lynch. But I can get behind an Onegu lynch too.
##Vote: Onegu
Bats lynch? Do you think he's a scum fakeclaiming trying to clear a partner? Particularly given all the questions surrounding Oats/JAT gameplay. Rasputin was getting more townreads than scumreads, but Bats himself doesn't post so much.
The paranoia from him has me on edge, but it's not strong enough evidence that I'd feel to lynch him.
Why are you so sure on him?
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14/60
A few points - Xatalos shot was not a bad one IMO (I mean seriously, he's fallen off again) although seeing his flip would have been really nice. I really do hope there is a coroner around this game.
My take on Onegu:
Argument between him and rsoultin - based on tone as I said before D1, I was seeing both town and scum tendencies in him. I was very torn that he's going after Rasputin, although basd on meta a key thing that made Rasputin scum was her tendency to hesitate for a post or two when people scumread her. She has adapted her scumgame well, but this game given the reasoning she's had particularly her long novel on n1, really makes me believe she's town.
Yeh the formatting of her posts has hurt my head sometimes, but her reads are pretty clear even if she doesn't use the exact language to scumread someone (ie this person is scum).
The key argument against Onegu regarding the case on Rasputin - to put it in one sentence - is that he's using ONE scumtell on her (instead of multiple that there are, and that he IS aware of, per our experience in NSM7) and a key scumtell I haven't seen is her hesitation for 1-2 posts before she responds if she is scumread. It's hard to articulate, but I haven't seen it here, and he's ignored that particular tell.
Separate from this argument, he's been pushing LS, who I also don't like this game at all either (but that's a separate issue) though I see he's claiming a blue role as well.
I'd say my biggest issue with Onegu is that he's really sparse with the scumreads. There are 4 scum remaining so if LS is blue, who is he scumreading now?
Basically your lynch isn't a bad one at this point.
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15/60
On May 15 2015 03:28 TalkingDead wrote:
Rsoultin filter is just kinda a mix of things:
Me and her discussing the things we missed in each others posts
Why she thought Vivax was town (pleb thing) and understanding why Marv, Damdred and I didn't pick up on it
We talk about Marv for a bit and how based on roles/night actions/etc I'm a bit more leary of him.
We come back to talking about my read on her before discussing yamato who I think is town
Discuss the sheeping Palmer thing.
She thinks Bats will flip town but likes shooting RoL. Comments on how BH seems to be a bullshitter regardless of his alignment
We talk about Bats, she thinks the traps make him kinda towny and he's super over excited in pushing them.
I kinda like the overexcited read but thought that he had used battraps more when he was mafia than town
We filter dive LS for a bit together. She ends on him being kinda towny still and I think he's more null-scum.
VE claims and we talk about his role for a bit. We talk about setup speculation with so much KP (which is apparently actually the norm for Ver setups... idk)
She comments on her apparent assassination and how it's clearly from mafia
TD, my experience with Bats has been the opposite. He uses traps more as town than scum. Don't recall him doing much anything productive in Aperture where he was scum.
Also, at LS, if you are blue, then we need way more in the line of scumhunting from you. I don't care if you use meta at this point or whatever, just do something productive. :/
Stutters is an uncounterclaimed blue, he might not post much (wish he did do more), but at least he shot Palmar.
Trying to filter dive a few people atm and see if anything is jumping out. I see where VE is coming from, but I also agree with the sentiment that the mason thing does not really confirm anyone.
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16/60
On May 15 2015 03:38 Stutters695 wrote:
@HtS can you show me some examples? I don't want to filter dive for that and that's such a broad tell that is so context dependent it's hard to put faith in that for me.
Who are you discussing in this question and which tell? I just commented on a few things. LS, Bats, Onegu?
If Onegu, you should remember from NSM7 or at least have the QT from when we were discussing Ras's hesistancy as scum. That's the most recent example. If you mean Bats, he used bat traps in Carol and another game that is slipping my mind atm.
Kelsier - OWS looked better to me after N1. Am I missing something somewhere? I have always found him difficult to read as both alignments in prior game, and I do disclaim my track record of reading him is poor, but his posting N1 seemed to have a bit more substance. It's a weak read, and I'd need to see a bit more from him to be confident, but I had him in a do not lynch after N1.
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17/60
On May 15 2015 03:38 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2015 03:30 GlowingBear wrote:On May 15 2015 03:26 batsnacks wrote:On May 15 2015 03:22 yamato77 wrote:On May 15 2015 03:20 justanothertownie wrote:On May 15 2015 03:14 yamato77 wrote:
Stop fucking listening to JAT.
He's dead scum, literally useless to the thread.
HTS, comment on the fucking Onegu lynch I'm leading or you're next. Dude. Serious talk for a minute even though the trolling is really fun. You incorrectly shot me, now you could at least pay a little respect to my reads. Post a single reads post and then stop playing. If you feel the need, update it before you die. Otherwise, you're just fucking mafia shitting up the thread. I don't like the cut of your jib, friend. Jat is town anyway. HOW THE FUCK ARE YOU GETTING THOSE READS PLEASE ENLIGHTEN ME BECAUSE I FUCKING THOUGHT YOU WERE CORONER AND CHECKED OATS ROLE AND I TOOK A STEP BACK INSTEAD OF SHOOTING HIM ARGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGH I've already said it like four times I can check alignments. Jat is going to flip VT. When he does, you can trust me about oats.
Bats, can you explain to me:
1 How your checks work (each cycle or part of the cycle)
2 Why you checked the person you did and when you checked each person
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18/60
On May 15 2015 04:02 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2015 03:50 GlowingBear wrote:On May 11 2015 23:40 batsnacks wrote:
I wish I had some nukes. My abilities are pleb tier. You sound more like your pleb, here. Basically I claimed vt subtly and Jat, rs, and oats picked up on it immediately. I think this was early enough in the game that mafia wouldn't have asked for fakes yet. VE, yamato, BH, LS, and you (GB) all blatantly missed it so you're all most likely either blues or mafia. Sandro also picked up on it btw but I missed it because I wasn't reading and was afk at eod. So voting Sandro was a mistake.
Alright, makes sense. Aside from Stutters and myself, LS has claimed his blue role as well. So that at least falls in line with the play. BH was blue as well.
If I gave that executioner power to a scum GB though I think I'm going to quit TL :/
At Kelsier, I just saw OWS's reasoning for voting you....not sure who missed what, though I think missing one question is a flimsy argument from his end. Ergh. He should resolve that or ping you again though....though if you did miss a question you probably should answer too.
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19/60
LS claims anything and everything as both alignments. Gameplay? Absolutely horrible in comparison to his townplay and not like his town gameplay.
Although the irony with you Onegu is that I explained (aside from Ras's case) why you aren't looking great to me now, even if LS was fakeclaiming there are still at least two scum left (I'm going to assume at least one of Xatalos or JAT is scum) so the fact you aren't breaking ground on anyone else doesn't look good at all or at least trying to legitimately PoE people or whatever, yeh.
Not to mention JAT is getting nuked, so regardless of his alignment, you're the main wagon. So if you are town, you need to re-read the thread and find some scumreads or you'll be another mislynch if you are.
Marv, Palmar has WIFOMed people of both alignments as both alignments (I'm pretty sure that is gramatically correct English). He's done this before as scum, so I'm not putting too much weight on his filter just because of the way he's mentioned people as one alignment, both alignments, even harder pushes, and in the past I've been wrong on what he's meant.
Yamato, I don't think what Bats did makes him scum. When he voted Sandroba, he did it in a way that he drew more suspicion to himself (his "claiming") than those he scumread for not picking up on the pleb comment. That's probably more in line with town play, and when he said those three reads were town reads, he didn't explain why and now it makes sense. LS (if true) and I each claimed on our own terms (independently of what Bats said) and BH has flipped blue.
I'm working on a theory (as I look into TD to make sure I don't miss anything) that KSC is town.
Obi, would like to know what other than the question dodging makes him better lynch than Onegu.
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20/60
EBWOP - "Marv, scum Palmar has WIFOMed people of both alignments as being both alignments...."
Sidenote for Yamato - I won't speak for LS, but I am not experience with either your or sandroba's town games. At all. Not everyone refuses to play as scum and I learnt the hard way just now with Vivax changing his meta the way he has (still I think that's lol, but I digress). Point is, to be blunt for a player unfamiliar with your play to an extent, no you were not "blatantly town" certainly not at the end of D1, let alone a top town pick and sandroba didn't really clear up for me until close to the end of N1.
I incorrectly read him D1, blame that on inexperience on my end, and as for you, I'm not really familiar with your style of posting.
Even if I gave sandroba my power, he wouldn't have gotten it if killed (night actions out of my control), or if another one of my town picks were higher than him on the playerlist had he have lived (I explained all that in my claim post) that person would have gotten it. And upon inquiry (never encountered my role before) I unfortunately could not put myself on that list either.
Just saying.
I need to AFK for a few hours but I'll be back.
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EPT
