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Noir Mini Mafia: Chapter 3 - Page 9

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
April 30 2015 15:44 GMT
#1514
Sorry, I appear to be busier than I thought.....

If I can't play very much over the next day or so, I'll make it up after.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 01 2015 02:02 GMT
#1528
Hi.

I'm sorry, I don't have time to truly analyze (or the energy to properly read the last few pages).

If you need my vote for something, I'll try to check in before my plane flight tomorrow, otherwise I will hopefully be online before the deadline.

I'm really sorry, I'll do analysis and try to make up for it in the next cycle.

Off the top of my head, it feels to me that while Palmar could be doing this as scum, it could be surprisingly hard to replicate a playstyle created by not caring whatsoever. Trying to care and seem to not care is not so easy. I'd believe much more in Breshke being mafia, or yamato77 being able to fool me.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 01 2015 23:31 GMT
#1536
I'm here, but really tired. Is there anything I need to look at before the deadline today?
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 02 2015 05:23 GMT
#1540
On May 02 2015 12:12 Breshke wrote:
My internet is fucked and wont be fixed until tonight or tomorrow morning wont really be doing much here until then

Sorry for delays
Making activity excuses at this point in the game?

That's just poor form, and extremely disrespectful. I think that Breshke needs to get policy lynched for this.

Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 02 2015 18:12 GMT
#1557
I don't think that we are forced to lynch today. Why do you think so?

I'll get to this sometime before the deadline, I hope.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 02 2015 19:53 GMT
#1560
On May 03 2015 04:44 Palmar wrote:
Can we just lynch Yamato and get it over with. Please please please please please please please
I think that's what I want to do, but I have a good bit of reading I want to do first.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 02 2015 21:33 GMT
#1571
I finished reading the thread.

##vote Breshke
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 02 2015 21:42 GMT
#1573
On May 03 2015 06:37 rsoultin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 03 2015 06:33 Trfel wrote:
I finished reading the thread.

##vote Breshke


you don't count xP i only negotiate with stubborn palmars
What do you mean, negotiate?

I don't negotiate with town, just wait for night and then kill them.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 02 2015 22:18 GMT
#1581
Breshke

The main point against Breshke is the lack of original thought and original pushes from him.

I also notice a lot of instances of Breshke justifying his own play where it isn't really necessary. Townies tend to be overly defensive, so I give him the benefit of the doubt (especially since he's been pushed for much of the game), but it just keeps looking worse and worse to me.
+ Show Spoiler +
Here's an example of his first read of the game.
On April 21 2015 09:31 Breshke wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 21 2015 09:27 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
On April 21 2015 09:24 yamato77 wrote:
I told wave he'd be the day 1 lynch

let's make it happen, people

##vote: waveofshadow

I'm ok with any lynch that isn't me since I need to overtake kita in the not lynched as town percentage tab. Therefore, any lynch that is not me furthers this condition and I support this lynch.
##Vote WaveofShadow


tentative town read for this post.
On April 21 2015 09:34 Breshke wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 21 2015 09:32 rsoultin wrote:
On April 21 2015 09:31 Breshke wrote:
On April 21 2015 09:27 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
On April 21 2015 09:24 yamato77 wrote:
I told wave he'd be the day 1 lynch

let's make it happen, people

##vote: waveofshadow

I'm ok with any lynch that isn't me since I need to overtake kita in the not lynched as town percentage tab. Therefore, any lynch that is not me furthers this condition and I support this lynch.
##Vote WaveofShadow


tentative town read for this post.


lol seriously? xP


Yeah haha all jokes aside in my limited experiance with art ive never seen him mention stats before so him referencing town stats and relating it to this game just seems like a weird way for a scum artanis to open.

This is obviously very weak hence the tentative part.
His read was obviously tentative the first time, he didn't really need to clarify it in the second post. For a read that he seems to feel is this weak, he shouldn't really post it except to generate discussion (in which this final sentence really doesn't need to be added at all).

This example alone doesn't say very much, but there are many, many similar examples.


Breshke just doesn't have the content production that I expect from him, either. He's mostly asking questions that don't seem to go anywhere. His questions are okay, but they don't provide enough insight to make up for analysis.
+ Show Spoiler +
On April 22 2015 10:50 Breshke wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 22 2015 06:35 WaveofShadow wrote:
Wtf this pressure on Artanis is fucking weird.
Like I'm super cynical that palmar and BH will ever contribute and I have an idea Artanis knows where I'm coming from, but these points of attack are weird and putting words in his mouth. Yamato what you said doesn't even make any sesne
Can't quote atm cause on phone but how is what you said even remotely what Artanis is doing?

And rsoul you get bored a lot for someone who is talking nonstop.


I really really like this post. Wave joins artanis in my "can't see lynching" list. If wave is mafia his frustration this game is from him being wagoned early so being on the back foot trying to survive from the get go. The stuff about yamato's push is not really alignment indicative for him even though I fully agree with his view point.

I'm not sure if i can explain this well but the last sentence on rsoul seems like it couldnt come from a scum wave as why would he randomly antagonize someone. Like he is clearly frustrated and if he is frustrated scum he would be trying to make friends not trying to piss people off.
What a weird read. Here's his thought process here.

I like this post from WaveofShadow, so I don't want to lynch him today. Here's a bunch of reasons that some scumreads on WaveofShadow aren't valid, as they are non alignment indicative. The wording "being on the back foot trying to survive from the get go" seems a bit strange, since town should never be playing to survive, but rather playing to catch scum.

And then he actually mentions the quoted post, explaining why he thinks that it makes WaveofShadow town. But it's a rather weak read in my opinion. And this post just doesn't make sense from a town perspective to me at all.

I also note that Breshke's explanations for his reads come upon request, generally not at the time he makes his reads. For someone who is so willing to justify himself, and for someone with good townreads, his townreads lack explanation even after questioned, but even moreso before.

Breshke's stance on Blazinghand is really weird as well. His vote on Blazinghand is initially a policy vote, and then Blazinghand posts. Breshke's posts focused in "this case is bad, Blazinghand could have created this as scum", and then ended up not pushing Blazinghand at all, asking for more time for the lynch, but still wanting to lynch Blazinghand.

I just don't understand how Breshke can want to lynch Blazinghand, but not enough to actually push for it, and want to delay the lynch for more, but not enough to unvote.


I read Breshke's Day 1 filter. And to be honest, I don't really think that I need to read the rest of it. There are many things that I can't see coming from Breshke, and I have a much easier time seeing yamato77's play coming from town.

Breshke and yamato77 are probably the best two lynches, but I think that lynching Breshke is by far the best choice.

I'll try to check in when I can, but I may not be back much until End of Day. Either way, I don't think I want to lynch yamato77 before Breshke anyway, so if me not switching to yamato77 results in another cycle, then so be it.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 02 2015 23:17 GMT
#1583
On May 03 2015 08:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
I'm back and thought about the game a lot in the car and concluded yamato is roughly 95% mafia. Points to follow, should be in time for lynch but you can move your votes already if you want.
Talk quickly? Not sure I have much more time.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 02 2015 23:28 GMT
#1587
On May 03 2015 08:22 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Wave-Breshke as scum-scum also doesn't make sense because you have an experienced scum player in Wave and a pretty piss-poor scum player in Breshke and they hard townread each other. Sure, it's potentially a great tactic but how likely is it to actually occur? Not very imo. Also lots of genuine posts by Breshke in retarded things that I've pointed out. One that I haven't pointed out yet is how he instantly mentioned that he read Damdred as blue. I'd imagine scum would be a little more careful with stuff like that.
I don't have a chance to fact check what you're saying, but I guess that makes sense. Hm, I still think that the Breshke lynch is pretty solid.

Also, I don't think that you can infer much from the high-level interactions between the two players. It's possible that (as mafia) Breshke and WaveofShadow hard townread each other precisely because they didn't think we would expect it.

One thing to check is, WaveofShadow did have an extremely poorly explained townread on Breshke. Did he make it seem more that way when it was getting clear he was dying (thus incriminating Breshke), or was it a weak townread all along? IE does it look like he's trying to incriminate Breshke or desperately defend him?

Be back in a few minutes, then probably out until End of Day.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 02 2015 23:28 GMT
#1588
On May 03 2015 08:26 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Coupled with the already weird Yamato-Wave interactions that Godmar pointed out before.
Yamato77 acted like that to everyone, though. Not specific to WaveofShadow.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 02 2015 23:33 GMT
#1590
Sorry, gotta go.

I guess I stay on Breskhe for now. If no lynching is necessary for this cycle, so be it.

Lynching Breshke and yamato77 will most likely win the game, regardless of the order anyway. And with that in mind, it's just simpler to lynch Breshke first and not try and wake up Palmar. But don't let that change your decision.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 03 2015 01:35 GMT
#1627
I'm really sorry, real life stepped in the way.

Later tonight, I'll take a very detailed look at what Artanis has been saying.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 03 2015 02:45 GMT
#1631
Rsoultin, please let it drop with Artanis....

I'm extremely confident that he is town. And he could very well be right.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 03 2015 03:00 GMT
#1635
On May 03 2015 11:57 rsoultin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 03 2015 11:45 Trfel wrote:
Rsoultin, please let it drop with Artanis....

I'm extremely confident that he is town. And he could very well be right.


no. i'm not extremely confident he is town
You would rather lynch Artanis than yamato77?
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 03 2015 03:16 GMT
#1644
Yes, it's not martyring if the lynch isn't going to happen that day (on his target, someone else's target, or himself). I mean, sure I guess it's technically martyring, but you weren't being very open to listening to him. And with me out and no one else around, the day was clearly ending in a no lynch.

I don't think that scum would avoid bussing because of where the scum power role lies. That isn't very important at all. If for town, roles are merely an aid to normal gameplay, I don't see why this would change from a mafia perspective.

Also, the situation was three players in a lynch pool, with the only real other lynch being Palmar. If the scum team is in fact WaveofShadow and yamato77, and they pushed the lynch that day to mislynch Breshke, there's a fair chance that they would have been lynched in succession as a result.

Have I thought about Artanis being mafia? Of course. I haven't shared all of my reasons for Artanis being town, there is no need to, he isn't in danger of being lynched. But the fluidity of his reads, the sense that he's provided, and the genuine feeling to his posts all look really good to me. He behaves in a manner that is supported by the expected emotions and his character. And I really don't think that Artanis would push WaveofShadow there (without checking the context, it just doesn't feel necessary at all).

Could he be mafia? I suppose, maybe. But even this final push on yamato77 makes a lot of sense. I could see scum trying to change the lynch here, but the thing is that Artanis is actually backing it with good reasons and it feels very genuine to me. So that just looks even better to me. Artanis may be good at mafia, but I simply don't see him being mafia here, especially with Breshke and yamato77 looking this bad.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 03 2015 21:12 GMT
#1673
Works for me.

##vote yamato77

At least for now. I'll read his filter when I get the chance.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 04 2015 00:04 GMT
#1684
Just woke up.

That works
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