EPT[T] Hajime no Ippo Maifa
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Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
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Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
I am not the fastest worker, but I do believe I can provide some insight. The first thing I want to break down without actually reaching any conclusions on what my actions will be yet, is sandroba. He is a controversial figure with votes against him. On April 26 2015 07:03 sandroba wrote: Hello guys. I'm happy to have finally rolled town. Looks to me we have ~ 1 and a half lynches per complete cycle based on my own HP. Seems sweet and I expect mafia/3rd party to have some powerful roles based on that. At the start of this cycle, Sandroba posted this, which I don't think is alignment indicative at all. Despite not saying anything at the time, I considered this to be more likely to come from town. On April 26 2015 07:04 sandroba wrote: This has become a trend lately for you afaik. Why do you even sign up for games if you are not going to care? Or do you just feel like you have to say this since you had simillar starts on both your past games as town? And this is even more likely than the first one to come from town. He seems to be genuinely concerned about the effort koshi will be putting up in the game, and not only is he concerned: On April 26 2015 07:13 sandroba wrote: You can do w/e, but I won't buy the lame excuse of not caring about the game for inactivity. If you want to post less that's fine, but I expect you to make your posts count. I even would prefer if everyone took the same aproach as it gets bothersome really quickly to read the recent games with the current level of spam and one liners. And LOL at you carrying me =) He is also cocky about it. After this series of posts sandroba didn't really post anything more that day and his next activity hour came later. I was tempted to comment, given that at least Xatalos had called sandroba out, that I believed it to be more likely sandroba was town. But at the time I decided not to comment for two reasons. #1: Sandroba is perfectly capable of fighting his own battles #2: More importantly, he set himself up to take a leadership role in town with these three posts. I felt that posting about him already instead of waiting on him to deliver on what I felt like was an attempt to become an important figurehead in this town, would help set expectations for him that he could then meet on demand. And #2 is precisely why I am somewhat uncomfortable with sandroba at the moment. Because when he next did come back, and I was hoping for some serious effort to actually lead the game: On April 27 2015 02:40 sandroba wrote: This thread is indeed incredibly dull. So far people I lean scum on like are LS and indignant (if he is jat). I see plenty of people are talking about my 1 and 1/2 lynches post. I thought about it some more and I suggest we use the promoter (which koshi pointed out correctly that it does 10 dmg) to make 2 of our inactives / people we cant read fight. That way we keep lynching into our top scum reads and dmg inactives and borderline people over time so we can either finish them off easily if people have dmg abilities or keep them fighting each other and kill them off. He complained about the state of the game. I'm not gonna comment on the mechanics side of it because I honestly don't understand the game yet. Then he followed up with questioning JAT: On April 27 2015 02:46 sandroba wrote: @jat I find your questioning of breshke quite weak and grasping at straws, do you agree with me or do you think you were indeed onto something? On April 27 2015 02:59 sandroba wrote: So I thought that you might have been just trying to stir something up in the beggining and purposefully just attacked someone randomly and that would be towny. I can't believe you were indeed genuine in your questioning, from what I remember you were a pretty good town player so that makes you likely scum. It looks to me like you were trying to find something to fake a contribution on and now you are afraid to back pedal. And finally a question to LS: On April 27 2015 03:04 sandroba wrote: @LS any commentary that isn't trolling, talking about past games, or random chat? I don't think these contributions fit the expectations that I had set for sandroba. I feel like he has failed to live up to the role that I thought his initial posts suggested. This is, obviously, something mafia is likely to do. However, I do not know, and hence I'm not even sure I should be posting this, whether he intended to follow up today. I just felt like I had to say something if only for my own sake of participating in the game. There is also the possibility that I misunderstood his early posts and he had no intention of taking a leadership role, although I think that's unlikely. At the moment I would support a sandroba lynch, but I am still working and I expect to have thoughts on more players as this day comes along. To clarify my position, I have no massive faith that sandroba flips mafia, I am not going, based off of his posting so far, to go out on a limb and yell and scream he's mafia. He might well be, and if he is the reason is that he failed to meet the expectations he set for himself (indirectly) at the opening of the game. But he might also just be town and have not been available yesterday or something. So yes, without a better alternative, I'd lynch him, because there exists at least one reason to think he might be mafia. But it's somewhat weak scumlean. | ||
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Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
I believe I had a significant conclusion, and I believe it also helps the rest of the players understand my motives better even if my conclusion isn't any kind of a solid read one direction or the other. It's much more important that everyone understands why I think what I think, rather than just what I think. I tried as best as I can to explain my thought process in forming this read. I think a conclusion like this is just as valuable to town as a strong town lean or strong scum lean. I think I just found sandroba, and the reaction he created in the game, interesting. But I can throw down much more concrete reads too, it's just that they're less interesting. Here is one that I feel okay about. I think Xatalos is town. I've thought he was town from the moment he called sandroba out for his opening posts because I just don't think mafia would target posts that almost specifically are made to look good, irrelevant of what I thought of sandroba at the time. Then I quickly read through his filter in the past 20 minutes, and although it wasn't a deep dive, I believe most of his posts don't look forced or deceptive. I don't trust tonal reads as much as I do more concrete things, but I believe they are a helpful tool, and in this case I sort of confirmed my belief that Xata is unlikely to be mafia this game. So yeah, I don't see myself supporting a lynch against him today. | ||
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Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
On April 27 2015 19:27 Breshke wrote: I don't get why jean started the post with you should listen to me then went onto say that sandroba might probably maybe idk not sure be mafia It is a play on a common role in mafia games, as well as a reference to the great work from which my name derives. On April 27 2015 19:33 indignant wrote: That's cool and all. But Xatalos wasn't really a lynch target anyways. Don't get me wrong - every read you give will be appreciated but reads on actual lynch candidates are more important. Like SL or Breshke for example. I understand why you feel this way. But I think it's much more constructive for me to simply progress through the game taking whichever direction I feel like taking, instead of forcing myself to read things I do not believe I'm ready to tackle yet. If nothing else, this townread on Xata, despite not being a lynch candidate, helps people understand my motives. In addition should I not reach any kind of a strong conclusion about someone's alignment being mafia today, I might default back to simply voting alongside the people I think are town, and now that I've explained in short why I trust Xata, I might choose to vote with him. But we're far away from that part of the day and I have more things I want to read and share before the day is over. | ||
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Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
On April 28 2015 00:42 marvellosity wrote: I am zen. Hi Zen, I am Jean | ||
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Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
On April 28 2015 00:22 Sepulchre wrote: It has nothing to do with Aperture or your other contrived garbage. It's more that whenever the thread was about to go into a constructive direction you were there to puke distractions into the thread to derail it. The fact that you apparantly try to paint it like your previous towngame is a point that adds to your suspiciousness, not the other way around. This post is extremely likely to be written by town. The unmistakable contempt while still backing up the things he's saying by explaining why he thinks the way he does is a combination that's extremely difficult to imitate as mafia. In addition to this I'm also almost certain marvellosity is town because of similar reasons, his general tone, suggesting lynching Koshi to improve the skill level in town and more things all make him sound like an extremely confident townie that is completely unapologetic about his opinions yet he's also able to separate his spite from his analysis as he did when he called rsoultin awful and then said she was town. | ||
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Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
I want your focus to be this: Breshke never attempts to lead with his questions and he never offers opinions or insight on situations Let's just break what he has posted down: On April 26 2015 11:31 Breshke wrote: Im really intrested how you figured it is 1 and a half lynches per complete cycle based on your hp and stuff since the first cycle there is no fight promoter and the fight only causes 5 dmg to each participant. Based on the information in the OP at all and my own HP I would think that someone would have to participate in multiple fights to be killed by this mechanic add that on with no fight first day cycle just don't get how you got to 1.5 lynches per day. This being said I think I heard your very good with mechanics, where did I read this I think marv said it? So i assume you are right I just don't see how. Also hi everyone Mechanics discussion with almost no content. While discussing mechanics on it's own isn't scummy at all, it's also not something to townread people for. After figuring out the mechanics thing that I admit I don't quite understand myself, but I also don't really know how the game works so that's not really an issue. But the point is Breshke did not talk about anything else until this post. Notice how this is just a straight up question, he doesn't even comment on the other reads, and much less anything else going on in the game. He does not offer any information or insight, preferring to straight up ask the question On April 26 2015 23:08 Breshke wrote: I don't think the question to sandro is a useless one because if he doesnt have a proper explanation i thought it was possible he could be mafia because knowing all the mafias rols would give you a lot more information about what would happen in the night. I have since realised that is probably dumb. You have still never explained how it is obvious how he reached the conclusion that it is 1.5 lynches per night btw. I understand your reason behind it but i don't think it is a right one. It is like claiming mason some people think that you shouldnt because you are town and just should act town and the cop won't investigate you. But instead you have basically claimed that a cop investigating you would have bad consequences for the cop which doesn't really seem to be a very town sided role to begin with. Upon that if you were actually town I don't see why you are worried about this in the first place. This discussion isn't about the game or trying to figure out someone's alignment. This is just a philosophical discussion about how mafia should be played, a fantastic topic if you're mafia as it looks like you're talking about the game but you really aren't. Again notice that at this point in the game I don't think Breshke has given even a single lean on any player in either direction. He has talked plenty, but not about things that are conducive to solving the game. On April 26 2015 23:11 Breshke wrote: I don't have much. The guy with the random reads list is weird but it still feels to early to say not sure why he posted it then didn't hang around to explain. Indiginant i don't really agree with the cop thing play. I like you for trying to move conversation on when not much is happening. So when Xata pushes him for exactly what I'm pointing out, he kinda throws out a few reads. Pay special attention to the bolded. What the hell is this? This is not a read any viable human being would make. It's absolutely pointless to talk about whether or not he agrees with Indiginant's play style if he's not going to draw any conclusion from it. Again, the theme goes on that he does not offer information unless prompted, he doesn't feel any need to share things with the thread unless specifically asked. The one exception is below. On April 27 2015 18:35 Breshke wrote: I don't think LS is town this game. Its weird that he said I TMI as scum but never eally pointed to a game where it happened. He also ignored Xat explaining how it wasn't TMI which makes me think he doesn't really believe it because he isn't trying to persuade anyone. ##Vote LS I also would be happy lynching SL this game because the fake confidence irks me This is his one real read this game. As you all can see it's very flimsy and actually appeals to someone else (Xata) in his explanation. Is LS really someone you would expect to take a strong leadership role when he's town? Is this a viable reason to scumread him? This feels so flimsy that I simply don't believe Breshke believes this. Also, when pressed on about this read, notice how weak it is really: On April 27 2015 19:53 Breshke wrote: he doesn't really revisit it or tell anyone to look into me when he is interacting with people later on which from what I remember is normally what LS does. To me it feels like he isn't trying to draw attention to it because he isnt confident he can push the read even though his posts directly about it seem to say otherwise. He also seems to dodge FF's question here could be unintentional Like none of this is strong at all. I'm not saying LS couldn't be mafia, but the reasons Breshke has brought up are absolutely not why if he is. Notice the bolded, it really seems like he could simply go and confirm it if he actually cared about the read. That's really about it for what is in Breshke's filter. I left out him randomly asking me about my experience level and a few other minor things, but I don't think I'm being unfair about my representation of his filter. I believe I have fully proven that Breshke has almost no reads on anyone this game, and what little reads he does have are extremely weak. In addition all his questioning of random people is usually fairly one-sided, in that he rarely seems to offer to give up any information to his correspondent. So, I think you cannot argue with my conclusion of what Breshke's filter is. However what is now left is to figure out if all of this actually makes him mafia. I think it does, but I'm more than willing to listen to a different opinion. ##vote Breshke | ||
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Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
On April 28 2015 04:36 sicklucker wrote: Look at this two votes not on sandro. The resistance I have no particular issue with a sandroba lynch. I have been writing this case on Breshke for a while and didn't know this switch was going on. My case on sandroba was written 8 hours ago when there was still time for him to come back and take the leadership role his opening posts implied he would be taking. With every hour passing since then without him delivering on the expectations I feel he set for himself, he is more likely to be mafia. So yes, we should absolutely lynch sandroba. There is currently no reason not to. | ||
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Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
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Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
On April 28 2015 04:41 Holyflare wrote: that's the thing about breshke with your case, he's just "meh" but i don't know if i can conclude that he's mafia like you do without some more time sandroba is arguably the better vote, yamato even too I suggest that you head over to a game called "Guardians of the Galaxy" and read the first page or so of content by Breshke that game if meta helps you better understand that this is not just meh. But to be honest there is plenty of time and I don't dislike your current direction. Oh, I kinda don't think Koshi is mafia though, but I'm not ready to explain that read nor do I feel very convinced. Regarding yamato, I simply have not read anything he has written. I am thus unable to make a conclusion on him. | ||
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Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
Sorry for spamming, I'll relax now. I've presented my case and sandroba is just as good lynch as Breshke (Go back and read my case on him and add to it the fact he never came back to fulfill on the expectations I sort of put out for him). So my #1 and #2 options are quite clear to the thread. I also think I've presented plenty of alternative reads for other people to understand my thought processes and thus figure out my alignment. I might check back in tonight around the lynch. | ||
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Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
On April 28 2015 04:52 indignant wrote: Read yamato and tell us your opinion. Seriously, it is one post. Sure I guess I can do that. On April 26 2015 15:19 yamato77 wrote: hello players of the game of mafia I will invest more time into this game once things actually start rolling my recent attempts at forcing early action have failed amazingly the latter half of this cycle will be a better time for me to play anyway see you all then. There is absolutely nothing alignment indicative in this post. I can't remember if anyone has made the argument that "he promised activity and then didn't deliver", but that is at best speculative as he hasn't come back at all. If he came back weakly that would be something entirely different. yamato is a fantastic cop check or a vigilante shot. If we have intelligent vigilantes in this game they should know their job is to clear out the trash that otherwise wastes people's time. Lynching yamato isn't bad if we have no faith in our alternative lynches, but because the reason is so obvious, there is no way of telling who legitimately believes he has a reason to lynch yamato, and who is just saying the words and applying the vote. I will under no circumstance defend or oppose a lynch on yamato, but I simply think it's a shot in the dark on an afk player. I think both Breshke and sandroba are better candidates for the lynch. | ||
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Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
And stop saying that his filter is just "meh". It's actively bad. I demonstrated it quite well in my case on him that didn't really seem to gain much traction. Please, read through this. This is our alternative lynch today and I really would like to do it. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=24156273 | ||
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Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
On April 28 2015 06:21 Holyflare wrote: Voting sandroba, suggest you guys do the same. How can someone read a thread in 30 seconds and say my reads are fabricated? Hint: they can't at all I actually think he's slightly less likely to flip mafia based on that. You seem to be one of the people that are in the position of town leaders. So no matter your alignment, if sandroba's only goal is not to get lynched here, which I would presume it was if he was mafia, then one of the absolutely worst plays he could make is to antagonize you. Of course he might be intentionally going for a bad play to make us think exactly like I am doing now, but it's at least some food for thought. | ||
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Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
![[image loading]](http://www.freefoto.com/images/11/60/11_60_13---French-Flag_web.jpg) On April 28 2015 06:23 ObiWanShinobi wrote: Breshke case is actually pretty good tbh. Will you join in our crusade? On April 28 2015 06:40 LightningStrike wrote: You know Breshke throwing away his vote is pretty bad. Who will be strong and stand with me? On April 28 2015 06:23 indignant wrote: No shit. That's because it is my case with more words. Beyond the barricade Is there a world you long to see? On April 28 2015 05:39 yamato77 wrote: Breshke I feel like has also been pretty unusually inactive, looking at filter length. He also began the game by largely talking about the setup and silly claims like your miller claim, easily scum play in this setup. He does at least have reads though. Worse lynch than Sandro. Then join in the fight That will give you the right to be free! On April 28 2015 04:41 Holyflare wrote: that's the thing about breshke with your case, he's just "meh" but i don't know if i can conclude that he's mafia like you do without some more time sandroba is arguably the better vote, yamato even too Will you give all you can give So that our banner may advance On April 28 2015 04:41 sicklucker wrote: We just knock out breske with are powers tonight. You never lynch breske when hes mafia you vig him so this ways more funny Some will fall and some will live Will you stand up and take your chance? On April 28 2015 04:44 Fecalfeast wrote: IDK HF the case on breshke is pretty ok The blood of the martyrs Will water the meadows of France! | ||
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Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
On April 28 2015 06:52 Vivax wrote: FF don't do this, that's a shitty ATE by Jean and in this situation no town is in the mood for jokes. Pls stay on yamaato This post is really bad. Not because it disagrees with me, but because it doesn't get the subtler message that I am completely unable to whip up any kind of votes on Breshke despite being at least somewhat backed by multiple people and what I feel is a very strong case. | ||
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Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
On April 28 2015 00:20 marvellosity wrote: once you get a skill level above a swamprat I may have to stop treating you like a useless child | ||
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Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
Turns out if was great that I and a few others last minute switched because mafia was probably counting on that vote stealing ability to win the day at least. While I really don't believe in clearing people based on actions, it seems to me that the people who last minute voted sandroba are very unlikely to be mafia. | ||
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Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
You can just read my filter to be enlightened marvellosity. It's so much better than all the stuff written by those American plebeians. | ||
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Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
Yamato: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=24156509 And Sandroba: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=24156328 and http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=24156328 Also I don't think my post regarding Sandroba was ultimately bad. I was just bringing up a different perspective. He was always my number two option for the lynch yesterday as my final vote proved. Are you really going to fault me for trying to push my own wagon I still believe is correct? I actually believe that I had more clear and well explained thoughts on the main wagons than most of the people in the game. Accusing me of not talking about them when my thoughts are laid out very clearly in the thread (you can also go back to my original Sandroba case) is kind of shitty. | ||
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