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On April 15 2015 09:30 Half the Sky wrote:
Shining, looking at the voting order, Trfel was townreading prplhz and his choices were hammering a townread in prplhz (vote would have been 4-5 with prp being lynched), hammering a nullread in Dwarf, or keeping his vote where it was.
By hammering a nullread, he effectively saved someone he was townreading, prplhz. The vote was tied at 4-4, though Dwarf was first to 4 votes per the counter, anyone could have hammered prplhz.
EBWOP - I think this is town agenda from Trfel.
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JJB - Alright, last scumgames aren't doing much to answer #1. He was vigishot in both of his scumgames.
+ Show Spoiler [Breshke] +
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The only possible argument I can explore for the "high-risk" player type in Breshke would be the Horn of Africa game where he was debating whether to shoot scum JAT or town LS and he said in post-game.
I'd like Rasputin to comment on that if she can since she played in that game.
Even then this is a towngame Breshke. Not scum. A yolo play from him as scum would better support.
Absent this, there isn't enough information to support the high-risk argument which would draw the conclusion that prplhz and Breshke are not the same alignment.
But then again this is a student game. If yolo plays have fooled veterans.... >_<
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#2 is a honest tossup and there's not enough support for 1 unless someone in here can vouch otherwise.
Still nearly everyone is struggling to make sense of his switch.
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On April 15 2015 09:49 jarjarbinks wrote:
Hmm I liked the way breshke defended hts though, granted it was defending someone other than scumming them.
I think I earlier give some cred because he liked one of my posts. biased and I shouldn't have thought that. still, could bresh acted poorly EOD because he was flustered town? does he get flustered often and play illogically in past town games?
That is a fair question. I know he's scumsided at times as town, but to be straight up illogical I am not sure.
And if the answer is yes, it would support the opposite alignment.
From a town perspective, he was nullreading (as I understand he "didn't have the info") prplhz, would not lynch Dwarf and couldn't get the support for Shining. So he chose between a nullread and a (possible?) townread, and picked the nullread despite voting with a scumread.
On April 15 2015 05:57 Breshke wrote:
I will hammer prp to save dwarf. Prp has him as top town its what he would want. Also shining and rso pushing for him makes me feel even betetr about saving him
I don't like the bolded in this first quote because you should vote based on your own alignment. If he's sheeping prp on the Dwarf read, then his vote on prp makes less sense.
But I know he was scumming Shining and I think this is the second time he's mentioned Rasputin and those votes on Dwarf - if he is town - would keep him away from that wagon.
On April 15 2015 05:59 Breshke wrote:
sorry trefel i think tbd is more likely town than prp and scummers probaly on tbd wagon
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On April 15 2015 09:58 rsoultin wrote:
i'm not an authority on bresh, hts, but honestly i would not call him a high-risk player lol >< i would not call him a high-risk person in general. one thing i've always admired about him is how rational and even-keeled he tends to be
Nothing in any scum play jumps at me as high-risk.
I know in NYE Party, I battled a wagon for 90 minutes and scum Breshke was defending BOTH wagons. Meta point - lot of defending others in his scumgames, including Titanic 7.
But in NYE, no high-risk play from him at all until he was vigi shot. I don't think he did jack all D2 in that game and town lost two in that day cycle - Oats was mislynched and I was modkilled.
The support isn't there.
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On April 15 2015 10:07 rsoultin wrote:
breshke intimated more than once that he thought i was scum for scumreading him ^^ so assuming he's town that would make sense, hts
Indeed it would.
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This is my starting point.
On April 15 2015 06:01 LoneMeow wrote:
Final vote count:
TheBloodyDwarf (5): Bourneq, The Shining, Tubesock, rsoultin, Trfel
Breshke (0): rsoultin
The Shining (1): Breshke, rsoultin, Trfel, TheBloodyDwarf
Bourneq (1): prplhz
Half the Sky (0): prplhz, rsoultin, Tubesock
prplhz (4): Stutters695, jarjarbinks, Half the Sky, Breshke
Stutters695 (0): Breshke
Bourneq voted Dwarf pretty darn early. He was scumming both prplhz and Dwarf. Could be a townie that's wrong or could be a scummer that saved prplhz and I think he was around EoD and did nothing.
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His rationale for picking Dwarf over prplhz early and then not changing -
On April 14 2015 22:04 Bourneq wrote:
Prplhz activity in d2 is really poor. He has been consistent in 2 things, defending dwarf and trying to lynch the 1 person I can be absolut sure is town. D2 he seems to be sure about his scum read on stutters yet pushes a lynch on me instead.
On April 15 2015 04:20 Bourneq wrote:
I have always looked closely on prplhz but when I made a case against him I was acused of OMGUS so I dont think I would be the best person to make a good case against him. Comparing his filter to Dwarfs made me settle on a dwarf lynch seeing dwarf has contributed nothing.
Newb town or newb scum? I can see either.
I know I've asked him why he's defending policy reads over scum reads, but would that mean from a newb scum perspective he's wanting to look good for not wanting to vote someone for OMGUS reasons. Concern about appearance?
Thoughts?
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Almost 2:30am here. I have to go to bed. Good night everyone.
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On April 14 2015 08:46 jarjarbinks wrote:
So I'm trying to figure out stutters because most people are scumming him and I wasn't. I can take two conclusion from what he's done so far.
1. He is scum and not really trying. This is evident in his first read on bresh. His posting is rather small for someone who has played and knows the game. He seems to focus on himself and people talking to him over others His largest case is on prp, the guy who got the train started for him D1.
2. He is town and is going for a low content/high quality kind of game. Is probing and looking for reactions. His first read on Bresh didn't have much right? He was probably looking for a reaction there and didn't like the reaction, which is evident in his later post on him (i'll quote after this). He sets a trap for Trf. He doesn't really defend himself (I guess he's confident he won't get lynched?) but instead focuses on figuring people out in this game.
The more I read his filter, the more I believe in #2.
IF THIS IS TRUE, than I'm much more suspicious of the people on his train: tube, hts , and prp. With his low content posts, he appears to be an easy target. You could call it a trap? And guess what? All three were on my lists I drew up earlier. hts and prp drew red flags from me earlier. This also helps make the NK make more sense.
Looks like I know where to look to find some scum lol
On April 14 2015 13:28 jarjarbinks wrote:
Prp- I wish I got to this. If I magically have free time tomorrow I will make a case. If not pretend I did and check him. Red flag + worse filter than HTS + earlier case I posted + on my list for most TR
##vote: Prp
Looking through a few filters and trying to trace some progression here. It seems JJB, you didn't get to take a full case but I can see partially how you set some of the criteria for where your reads changed from D1 to D2 on prplhz. I see where you got the "worse filter" part and the "on my list for most TR" and I think I know what you mean by that second part even if you acknowledge it as faulty.
But I went over your filter with fine tooth comb. What is the "red" flag you describe for him and "earlier case I posted"
Page 3 of your filter/near end D1 you were townreading prplhz and the read change was based on you townreading Stutters and the prp filter. So I'm not clear on what you mean by the bolded in your list.
To clarify, when you said you liked his earlier prodding of me early D2, so I'm trying to transpire what this "red flag" was that occurred later in D2 before you left for work.
I realise you AFKed the vote because of RL, but I generally consider this NAI when RL is the issue. You AFKed just south of 12h before EoD.
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On April 15 2015 22:53 Stutters695 wrote:
Complete WIFOM, but I'm starting to think that them giving up on Prpl and him trying to get cred from the bus is actually viable based on how Prpl has been since and Bresh's reasoning. Got a bit before we need to deal with that though.
AFK Work
I also just realised looking at the votes that a thing to consider from the voting is that it was a possibility that the BloodyDwarf could have voted prplhz to save himself at any time, and especially if he'd done so before Trfel, the Breshke/Dwarf combination would have successfully hammered prplhz at 5-5 with prplhz being the tiebreaker.
Final vote count:
TheBloodyDwarf (5): Bourneq, The Shining, Tubesock, rsoultin, Trfel
Breshke (0): rsoultin
The Shining (1): Breshke, rsoultin, Trfel, TheBloodyDwarf
Bourneq (1): prplhz
Half the Sky (0): prplhz, rsoultin, Tubesock
prplhz (4): Stutters695, jarjarbinks, Half the Sky, Breshke
Stutters695 (0): Breshke
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EBWOP - ".....and especially if he'd done so before Trfel voted Dwarf, the Breshke/Dwarf combination...."
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So prplhz is in the LIWF category for me. Which means two scum amongst the two main wagons.
As of now, I feel okay about JJB's rationale for the prplhz vote. There are some gaps I'd like to clear up since I'm not clear on the major points where he went from "probable town" on prplhz to "lynchables" though he's highlighted some of the other criteria which is in line with the rest of his progression.
Regardless of where Breshke stands, we know there's one scum guaranteed on the Dwarf wagon and though he mentioned he wasnt' confident in his reads and the whole OMGUS thing if he was still scumreading prplhz, why he didn't take the other points we discussed on prplhz into consideration. (I don't think he was scumreading Stutters.) The points that he had on prplhz and the points discussed were all scummy behaviour and he still policy lynched.
What bothers me a bit is that he gave prplhz town points for hard defending Dwarf all game. I want to question why he is so sure this is from a town motivation when
1 Dwarf wasn't close to being lynched D1
2 the train on Dwarf only really started taking off at 18:30 my time or 3.5h before EoD (Shining's vote was #2) and well after prplhz had afked for the day.
I want to look into Tube as well to make sure I didn't miss anything in terms of read progression and Shining reads particularly from D1 to D2.
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EBWOP - Massive fail on my part
Regardless of where Breshke stands, we know there's one scum guaranteed on the Dwarf wagon and though Bourneq mentioned he wasnt' confident in his reads and the whole OMGUS thing if he was still scumreading prplhz, why Bourneq didn't take the other points we discussed on prplhz into consideration. (I don't think he was scumreading Stutters.) The points that he had on prplhz and the points discussed were all scummy behaviour and he still policy lynched.
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Need to AFK for approx an hour but will be back if anyone wants to talk.
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I think the thing with Breshke - we have explored both scum and town motivations/rationales for him doing what he did D2. The question is which is more likely and which is more believable.
One argument potentially in favour of Breshke is whether it is likely for him (or whether he has a history of) to do illogical things as town. Because as we all know, townies can do dumb things at times.
I mean, I sure as hell did in several of my town games (or aligned) with voting (reference: Carol voting a null read in Tubesock over a scumread, I scumsided hard every night in Aperture, voting down in JOAT a paranoia/fear read on sicklucker over a more hard scumread in sandroba) so I think that is probably another thing to check on him before being absolutely sure.
Which is why I'm trying to ferret out other people on the Dwarf wagon, seeing as I'm mostly confident the remaining three of us on the prplhz wagon are pure.
Being confident of prplhz as scum, should be able to locate at least one suspicious person on the Dwarf wagon. Bourneq is my top candidate atm.
If two people are looking bad or potential scum on the wagon then we can PoE Breshke as town.
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If I cannot find a strong scumread and at least a second scumlean on that Dwarf wagon, then I'd probably meta Breshke's towngames. If he's fairly logical otherwise, I'd go for the lynch.
I know he does have a history of AFKing at times as either alignment so I'm going to ignore the drop in activity alone.
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In case I die:
I know the world of Liquidia generally loathes list posts but here we go:
Confirmed town: TBD, plot, Soren/HF, myself
Town
Rasputin - well, duh
Trfel - the analysis is there, and I'm seeing change in reads based on evidence
Stutters - post d1 activity and pushes have been spot on
Townlean:
JJB - Decent filter - some gaps in the prplhz change in reads, but could mostly follow. Doesn't seem to have an agenda.
Under review:
Breshke - D1 activity okay, D2 activity illogical, need to check town meta
Tubesock - Trace all read progression. Did town him for tinfoil/GF theories, but needed to see how he drove the Dwarf lynch. Need to review why he dropped prplhz as a scumread.
Shining - Super low activity from him and Ace. Meta-ed him post-lynch and didn't look good but need to check latest posts.
Probable scum:
Bourneq - Did scumread prplhz, could have explored others' scumreads on prplhz but effectively policy lynched. Newb scum error?
Lynch it with fire
prplhz - Do I need to beat a dead horse with this one?
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EPT
