EPTTL Mafia LXX: Guardians of the Galaxy - Page 13
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Superbia
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1. Mafia KP got reduced. 2. You (toad) are not the vigi. | ||
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I was expecting KP to go on Vivax if Onegu was mafia for some reason. Too much speculation. | ||
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On March 25 2015 06:51 Trfel wrote: If Vivax was to be roleblocked, I would have expected KP to go to ExO_ or raynpelikoneet (if he was town). Why Exo? Rayn actually makes a somewhat likely target. | ||
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On March 25 2015 06:52 ritoky wrote: i am super confused by what superbia is talking about. can someone try to make sense of this for me, or tell me if i am wrong. he says the play he would make as mafia if 2 vigis were real and claimed, the play would be shoot 1 vigi @ night to setup the ML on the other; thus since it didn't happen that way 1 of the vigis is mafia? is that correct? in a game with this many claims out in the open, why do you think the mafia would place vigi as such a high priority? especially when 1 has claimed to use their shot. There were mason claims and a fake Tracker in rayn (iirc). I'm just speculating because I believe more information can be extracted from the NKs with 2 vigi claims. Let's eliminate the world in which both vigis are real, and slam is town: - Scum never RBs Vivax because: - You show 4 KP in the night (withholding a possible mafia vig shot), 4 town die, town suspects vigis due to possibility of mafia vig. Mafia probably wins game. Hence, if you believe both vigis, Slam is probably always mafia. | ||
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Probably not before EoN. =/ Hopefully I'm still alive as the morning comes. :D | ||
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On March 25 2015 07:00 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Well, I don't think you're getting shot by mafia. I doubt this, as well. So I should be fine, hopefully. :D | ||
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On March 25 2015 07:03 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Also you're forgetting that the JK probably stopped 1KP, which would've made things 3KP otherwise. A RB on a Vivax shooting Slam could easily result in a Slam mislynch. Town vigis either shoot scum or bad townies and either result can be detrimental to scum because it could eliminate mislynches. No, no. That's absolutely irrelevant. The play is to let both KP go through 100%. The misslynch on slam is absolutely irrelevant, because you go into d2 with 5 townies dead and suspicion on the Vigis. 5v10. If you secure a misslynch on that day you have mylo in d3. | ||
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On March 25 2015 07:08 Artanis[Xp] wrote: 1. You don't know if Vivax is shooting Slam or someone else. 2. RBing Vivax isn't between 4 or 2 KP but 4 or 3 KP 3. An alive town Slam is highly likely to get lynched. I don't find your case very convincing. I think there's a good chance Slam is scum, but not because of this. 1. Is true, but ultimately very, very risky on Vivax's part. 2. RBing Vivax ultimately loses you 1 KP on town if Vivax is a real vig (I believe so), which then doesn't allow you to secure mylo during d2 (unless you have a mafia vig, but then Slam surviving and KP being put on another target kind of puts unnecessary points in Vivax's, and maybe even slam's favor) | ||
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Superbia
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Town is calling for a shot on VE and slam. Both toad and vivax seem to comply. What does mafia have to lose by not RBing and letting both shots go through? I've explained what mafia has to gain, possible d3 mylo and 2 big question marks for misslynches. | ||
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On March 25 2015 07:16 Toadesstern wrote: KP is always nice for mafia but in the end a lynch on a townie is even better because that's effectively double the kills because you get the ML as well as a free night period (= more than just one failed vigshot) that you just got because of the ML. So keeping questionmarks alive for confusion is actually a thing, yeah Ultimately slam may get cop checked after a red check on d2 (very possible), and town will have effectively gained a lynch. | ||
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On March 25 2015 07:18 Artanis[Xp] wrote: But both Toad and Vivax looked so townie. Town was also coming around to the idea of 2 town vigis by that time regardless of the shots, so I disagree that it truly would leave 2 big question marks. Essentially all that's different with the RB is that Slam is still alive and can still get mislynched, presuming town. No way town keeps these strong townreads going into d2 with those flips dude. | ||
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On March 25 2015 07:19 Eden1892 wrote: superbia's confidence in his setup spec despite all the logic leaps reeks of tmi to me i'm biased tho It's not TMI, I'm just this good. The more I post about it the more I believe in it. It's just too good of a play for mafia to pass up, with virtually no downside. | ||
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On March 25 2015 07:20 Toadesstern wrote: I did not comply in the slightest wtf. I raged pretty hard at HF because I thought the plan was retarded and didn't know who I was shooting until after it happened and I got confirmation on it... and you think mafia had an idea who I was shooting? I thought it was pretty clear at EoN1? I recall you fighting HF on this during N1, but you seemed to be okayish with it EoN1. Maybe I'm remembering it wrong? | ||
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