XXX Mini Mafia: A Night of Debauchery (18+) - Page 45

On March 12 2015 12:48 Eden1892 wrote:
This is about where I am.

raynpelikoneet is confirmed town. This doesn't need explanation.

rsoultin is still confirmed town to me. She is the only person I would say I can read based on writing style with nearly-perfect accuracy. Studying her play when I coached her and then playing a few games with her, and getting to see her play as both alignments, has made me really good at making this read. If I try to push a tone read despite in-game evidence on anyone else then you can probably ignore me but do not make this mistake when I read rsoultin this way. I have gotten that good at it. (Yes I know lame digs about Horn of Africa go here, I've figured it out since then.)

Koshi is mega town. I might still be sleeping on his mafia game from a lack of experience with it, but this is night and day compared to his mafia games I've seen. He's heavily invested in all of the discussions going on and his scumhunting is really focused. I haven't liked the content of some of his pushes; I feel like he gets tunnel-vision and tends to depreciate his arguments. But it still all checks out. He also caught JAT, so there's that.

marvellosity is mega town. This is based mainly off of two things: our thought on prplhz and his interaction with JAT. Regarding prplhz we had a mindmeld, although the record isn't going to show that cleanly. You can find where marv asked aloud why prplhz was voting ray the entire day during this phase; I had the same thought right before I read him saying that, but I had to do something at work and couldn't post to confirm it until a little bit later. My mindmelds pretty much never happen with mafia and I refuse to lynch them.

The other bit that might be more convincing to the rest of y'all is his interaction with JAT. I described it as "kid gloves" - marv seemed unusually deferential and lenient on JAT when (IMO anyway) JAT wasn't playing well. It occurred to me that marv would really only do this as mafia if JAT were town. He doesn't want to look like he's reluctantly going with the flow when a partner is up for lynch; he either does his best to steer the lynch elsewhere or he commits to busing his partner, but he's almost scared to be in the middle ground where he's acknowledging that his partner looks bad but isn't trying to kill the partner. That's where I felt he was with JAT virtually the entire day.

I have to admit I've been unimpressed with his pushes thus far, but he doesn't have to do that to be town.

LightningStrike is probably town. His play this game just seems like typical town LightningStrike to me. Clear efforts to be helpful, original questioning, digging into previous games to cite evidence to support himself. I don't think I'm lynching him.

ritoky is probably town on further reflection. There seemed to be a brief window where the lynch was in question, with ray, ritoky and JAT as the three wagons. JAT was very animated about getting people who weren't committed against him or ray to vote for ritoky over him. I think it was Koshi who called it the "time when JAT had hope" of not being lynched, and he spent an awful lot of it trying to get ritoky lynched. The catch here is that JAT is the better scumsided player compared to ritoky pretty easily, and I'd think that in most cases a given scumteam would rather sac ritoky to save JAT than the reverse. (No offense ritoky, it's not that you're bad, it's that JAT has arguably the best scumside game of anyone currently active on TL Mafia.) So JAT busing isn't out of the question. And it's not like ritoky has played a scintillating obvtown game either. But the reason this is more likely town is simple - if the mafia team had decided to bus (which, if they're both mafia, JAT pushing ritoky hard = bus), why didn't ritoky push to get JAT lynched? It's too glaring an inconsistency to ignore, so I think ritoky is probably town.

prplhz is an anomaly. He was the first one to call out JAT on his town reads, which stuck out to me because it was a pretty insightful point that turned out to be correct. He also had a couple of pretty insightful interjections into some heated debates. (My bias is showing here, but at one point Koshi and LS were calling me a liar and mafia respectively for saying my phone was taken away at work, and prplhz was the only person with the common sense to say "or maybe he's saying this cause it's the truth.") But he's also had sparse thread presence, and despite making an insightful observation about JAT's early townreads, he proceeds never to actually vote JAT and afk's onto the now-confirmed medic. He's in my POE lynch list but I'm hoping I can get some more out of him d2.

Palmar is a complete null right now and will probably remain that way until he starts playing for real. I'm looking elsewhere for my targets tomorrow but if he gets lynched tomorrow that wouldn't bother me.

Onegu is a complete null right now and will probably remain that way until he starts playing for real. I'm looking elsewhere for my targets tomorrow but if he gets lynched tomorrow that wouldn't bother me.

Damdred still seems like a pretty good pick for mafia. I still feel that the core of my case against him during d1 stands. His flip on me seems fabricated to fit thread sentiment; it's really bizarre that a player as generally attentive and precise as Damdred is (when town) could just look at my big reads list and immediately call it really townie, then suddenly realize he didn't notice all of the "problems" with it and think that my filter is actually really bad. He kept harping on some question I allegedly didn't answer back in the first half of d1, but then when we're talking last night he asks me about rsoultin and then never actually broaches the question from before. Seems like if it were so important that he scumread me for not answering it that he would ask it directly again to try to get an answer, no? I also felt like he was insufficiently uncertain with his town reads early in the game; there's no meta point for me to raise like prplhz did with JAT, but he called a lot of people town really fast. He had a pretty solid vote count analysis that he posted earlier and the only thing missing to wrap it up was that he's mafia lol. I think I'm lynching this guy tomorrow.