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On March 07 2015 03:15 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2015 03:07 geript wrote:
How about that town only got 1 role on N1? Yah, that's pretty crazy.
How about non-standard roles? I know I got an exceptionally standard role. So yah, that's pretty crazy.
How about that Sandroba as mafia greenchecks the easiest mislynch in the pod? Also crazy.
How about that I'm lying about getting vigi role? Well I did. Suck it. Also crazy.
How about that town spirit didn't give anythign at all away? Saving up without spending on a medic is absolutely insane. What I don't see from you is anything but saying how crazy and dumb my thoughts were. You repeatedly go back to that. Yet your lynch pool is Sicklucker and I. Shouldn't it be fairly simple to differentiate from 2 bad towns and look at intent and motivation? Look at Robik. He thinks I'm bad. He ignores everything I write, but is investigating things outside of me. You somehow are stuck talking to a donkey and not investigating. What are you gaining from this?
When 1 is SL and the other is you, it's really not easy at all. SL will literally do anything as mafia. You're so far out in right field that I'm literally having to extrapolate reads from other people who I've never relied on before in order to read. Like it's really not easy whatsoever.
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On March 07 2015 03:30 IAmRobik wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2015 03:27 geript wrote:On March 07 2015 03:15 IAmRobik wrote:On March 07 2015 03:10 geript wrote:On March 07 2015 03:06 IAmRobik wrote:On March 07 2015 03:04 Tubesock wrote:On March 07 2015 03:01 IAmRobik wrote:On March 07 2015 02:59 Tubesock wrote:On March 07 2015 02:54 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On March 07 2015 02:52 Tubesock wrote:
One other thing I would like town to consider.
IamRobik, Kithaman27, and Half the Sky all thought my theory is dumb as shit (still do I assume). ALL three are visibly investigating the points of that theory. Maybe not all of them, but certainly some of them. These people care about the truth, they want to find the scum. This is so obviously town motivated.
Compare Geript.
Town!Geript would be motivated to find the truth among the stupid. MafiaGeript would be motivated to either discredit the theory or bury the town.
Geript not liking your ideas doesn't make him mafia. Kithaman nor Robik liked my ideas. Geript not even considering any of them does. what idea? That Sandroba is scum, fakeclaiming to save himself and from having to work really hard to prove he isn't the lynch in this cell. My entire Tinfoil Hat Theory. wtf. of course sandroba's scum. I think he checks lightning 100% of the time as actual cop-check I disagree. But that's like impossible to argue. You disagree with him being scum or you disagree on his cop check? and what's impossible to argue That he'd 100% cop check LS can you be more fucking vague
You said that he'd 100% cop check LS. I disagree that he would. It's not a point I can actually argue because it basically will devolve into, "well I think X" vs "well I think Y" Like my experience is here is that lots of people here don't actually cop check people they're scumreading. But that's anecdotal. Like I can't think of a game where I've seen Sandroba as a cop. It's just a random personal opinion. Like what's so fucking hard to understand about this Robik?
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Syllo soul reading Sandro is not me floating an idea. It's fucking true. It was fucking surprising to everyone in Catastrophe that Sandro got Syllo to townread him. Oh and btw, Syllo died before he could correct that view. Like any vet around here fucking knows that those two guys know each other really, really, really well.
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Palmer and Marv are not soulmates. They've misread each other a number of times. Hell I even used Marv's own heuristic in Russian to get him to ignore Palmer all together before we killed Marv. Rayn helped back me up on it and everyone bought it. The two are nothing like Syllo/Sandro. Marv/VE used to be soulmates. But that was a long time ago, roughly around when I started played. Me and Rayn used to be soulmates; now he can't read me for shit.
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Yah, because Syllo died as he began thinking Sandro was mafia.
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On March 07 2015 03:50 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2015 03:47 geript wrote:
Yah, because Syllo died as he began thinking Sandro was mafia. So here, Syllo got a 100% soulread by the end of Day 1? and how many months ago was this game? 100% soulread is true, but all my idea have 0% to be true....really?
Yah, because your ideas are literally either posted as complete distractions or you're fucking insane.
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AFAIK.
1. Only Toad/Rayn scumread him. And Rayn's been fucking insane this game.
2. Ok. Please explain how this is exactly his meta. Because I 100% know that you haven't actually meta'd him. You're literally just completely going based on what other people who have actually read his scum games have said.
3. Onegu was the obvious vote pre-claim. Like really fucking obvious. A guy who IIRC by your standards was also scumread by Toad/Rayn.
4. Sure Claims mean nothing this game in particular. But town only getting 4 roles on N1 would be insane.
5. Town spirit doesn't know the alignment of Sandro. True. So what. Doesn't mean that they can't figure out his actual alignment by you know, reading him.
Like let's not forget 6:
WHY IN THE FUCK DOES MAFIA SANDRO GREEN CHECK ONEGU THE MOST OBVIOUS LYNCH IN THE FUCKING LYNCH POOL? LIKE WHY DOES MAFIA SANDRO GREEN CHECK THE EASIEST PERSON TO LYNCH IN THE FUCKING CELL?
Like neither you nor Tube are doing anything other than saying, "Oh he does it so he can live for 1 more day. Oh it helps keep KP and shit." Bullshit. Mafia does not remove the person who's at least as likely if not more likely to be lynched from within the cell.
LET ME REPEAT. MAFIA DOES NOT REMOVE THE PERSON WHO IS MOST LIKELY TO BE LYNCHED IN THE CELL FROM THE FUCKING LYNCH POOL
Like that's what Tube/SL are trying to push. That's the insanity of all of this. Like Onegu who we know has an honest opinion on this even fucking said it. Yet both Tube and SL are completely fucking ignoring this entirely.
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On March 07 2015 03:59 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2015 03:53 Alakaslam wrote:On March 07 2015 03:50 Tubesock wrote:On March 07 2015 03:47 geript wrote:
Yah, because Syllo died as he began thinking Sandro was mafia. So here, Syllo got a 100% soulread by the end of Day 1? and how many months ago was this game? 100% soulread is true, but all my idea have 0% to be true....really? What are your Ideas? Are you part of the pro SL camp? The pro SL camp currently leads 8-5 get wrecked mafia
Pro mafia camp leads 8-5. Get rekt bitch!!!
Explain why Sandro's the most obvious lynch in the pool. Explain why Sandro green checks the most obvious lynchbait in the pool. Explain any of your fucking presumptions because you're fucking lying and bullshitting about everything.
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Robik. In a setup with 6 mafia and 2 3p, where by D3 with a single mislynch you can expect 8 townies to be dead and ahve like a 6v2v8 game do you really think that the host would put 2 mafia in the pod? Like that's absolutely insane. Like the level of bastard hosting would be off the chart.
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On March 07 2015 04:05 sicklucker wrote:
The good towns that died told us to lynch sandro. The check could be his partner to save them both. To confuse us. Lazyness and not following the game. To set up a mislynch on him.
Then he could greencheck you. Or greencheck Tube. Or greencheck like anyone. Or redcheck outside of the pod. Like if he wants to survive, removing the easiest mislynch in the pod only makes his job harder. That's literally all it does. So why does Sandro as mafia, make his goal to not get mislynched significnatly harder?
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On March 07 2015 04:09 sicklucker wrote:
Geript your not making sense. Your saying its mafia favored if town has a bad start. Then your saying its not fair if town catches a break with rng?
No I'm not. I'm saying that Cell has a track record of 1 mafia 2 town. That's the setup of cell. The basic idea of it is if you find the mafia the other 2 are confirmed town. In a setup that ridiculously mafia favored, it would 100% be super bastard hosting to have 2 mafia in the cell. Like ridiculously super bastard hosting. Like that's fucking insane.
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On March 07 2015 04:12 sicklucker wrote:
Like its your opinion that onegu was an easy mislynch. But do you think mafia sandro even reads the thread? because by your own logic he would not. So would he not green check a random person? Or the player of the 3 he knows to be a more experienced player?
Sandro isn't a fucking idiot. He wouldn't green check someone in his pod as mafia. He especially woudln't do it to the person who he could easily push the best. Like that's literally saying, "Everyone in this pod is town!!!" Like he 100% reads (or in the least skims) as mafia from what I've seen. He'd 100% know that Onegu is the easiest push in this pod. He 100% would be able to just fucking push Onegu to not get lynched. Like that'd be really fucking easy.
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On March 07 2015 04:19 Tubesock wrote:
There is risk in cop checking town as mafia. Mafia needs a "confirmed" town so they have an excuse to night kill them instead of any town leading mafia. The risk is that that "check" flips ninja and then it was a 1vs1.
You fucking started talking about how we should kill a ninja first. You hunt ninja. WHY?
Look at the non obvious towns. Kurumi, Sicklucker, Fecalfeast, Batsnacks, me (who Rayne thought was ninja along with Obi), Oats, Onegu, Sepulchre, Slam, and Obi. I bet you thought about the odds of each of those players to flip ninja. Mafia QT probably decided Onegu was a safe bet, plus they could WIFOM how stupid it would be to fake a cellmate. More importantly, they need to protect against a 1 v 1. Getting a cell containing Sandroba was unlucky on mafia's part.
Mafia needs to reduce the odds of a claim flipping ninja. The claim also has to be believable.
Yet, you refuse to believe that there is a chance that none of the top towns are mafia, that all of them are bad or lurky. And also that if one of the top towns IS mafia then they are too stupid to know they have to plan to have an excuse they lived past night 2.
Point 1. Complete fail. Confirmed townies are #3 on the list of people to kill. Always #3. Below Roles and people who are able to read the game well and push lynches. Like this is insane.
Point 2. I've already explained this. Ninjas on D1 are worse for town than mafia are. It's counter intuitive, but if you remove a Ninja on D1, then you remove 3 KP that is very likely to hit town from the game. That's far more than you get from hitting mafia on D1.
Point 3. That's a big list of people who are quite likely to be mafia. GJ if you're town because you're a retard if you believe this shit.
Point 4. WAT?
Point 5. I think that there are "top town" who could be mafia. Like Robik only started posting after I bugged him. He's also a good enough player to be "salty" after not getting his shot. He's also done reasonably little and isn't following any sort of common sense read that I've seen him use in video mafia. I just don't fucking care to talk about them today because there's literally no point in that right now. I can't lynch Robik today. Kita could be mafia. I really haven't bothered looking at his filter since D1.
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Really Sandro? Really? I don't get it. Wat? The same bastard hosting bullshit from Tube/SL?
Fuck this. Fuck this. I'm giong to get food and call an HR guy. I'm done arguing over this shit. I'm done.
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On March 07 2015 04:39 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2015 04:28 geript wrote:On March 07 2015 04:19 Tubesock wrote:
There is risk in cop checking town as mafia. Mafia needs a "confirmed" town so they have an excuse to night kill them instead of any town leading mafia. The risk is that that "check" flips ninja and then it was a 1vs1.
You fucking started talking about how we should kill a ninja first. You hunt ninja. WHY?
Look at the non obvious towns. Kurumi, Sicklucker, Fecalfeast, Batsnacks, me (who Rayne thought was ninja along with Obi), Oats, Onegu, Sepulchre, Slam, and Obi. I bet you thought about the odds of each of those players to flip ninja. Mafia QT probably decided Onegu was a safe bet, plus they could WIFOM how stupid it would be to fake a cellmate. More importantly, they need to protect against a 1 v 1. Getting a cell containing Sandroba was unlucky on mafia's part.
Mafia needs to reduce the odds of a claim flipping ninja. The claim also has to be believable.
Yet, you refuse to believe that there is a chance that none of the top towns are mafia, that all of them are bad or lurky. And also that if one of the top towns IS mafia then they are too stupid to know they have to plan to have an excuse they lived past night 2. Point 1. Complete fail. Confirmed townies are #3 on the list of people to kill. Always #3. Below Roles and people who are able to read the game well and push lynches. Like this is insane. Point 2. I've already explained this. Ninjas on D1 are worse for town than mafia are. It's counter intuitive, but if you remove a Ninja on D1, then you remove 3 KP that is very likely to hit town from the game. That's far more than you get from hitting mafia on D1. Point 3. That's a big list of people who are quite likely to be mafia. GJ if you're town because you're a retard if you believe this shit. Point 4. WAT? Point 5. I think that there are "top town" who could be mafia. Like Robik only started posting after I bugged him. He's also a good enough player to be "salty" after not getting his shot. He's also done reasonably little and isn't following any sort of common sense read that I've seen him use in video mafia. I just don't fucking care to talk about them today because there's literally no point in that right now. I can't lynch Robik today. Kita could be mafia. I really haven't bothered looking at his filter since D1. 10 suspects in a game with 8 nontowns is big? So, everyone should have only 8 suspects with full confidence in 100% accuracy? And funny that's not a town looking for mafia list. thats a mafia looking for ninja list. Outside of the claim people think Sandroba is mafia. Both nk'd towns died scumming Sandroba. But you're fighting and not considering that those people were correct. And if you die along with one of those I would suspect the remainder of being mafia. But they are not showing any indications that they will be saved somehow. You however are "towny" enough to have been given a gun by presumably the town spirit. You are already preemptively providing excuses for how you live. Robik and Kita are not even thinking about that.
![[image loading]](http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/7e/7e05cfb0d554c683769a319b95183ccc84f74d226488b8f3de7bd00b240d2bc1.jpg)
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On March 07 2015 04:44 sandroba wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2015 04:39 geript wrote:
Really Sandro? Really? I don't get it. Wat? The same bastard hosting bullshit from Tube/SL?
Fuck this. Fuck this. I'm giong to get food and call an HR guy. I'm done arguing over this shit. I'm done. Did you actually do the math on this? Assuming 1 spot is taken by mafia and the rest of the spots are ramdomized there is actually 1 - (14/20^3) = 75,7% chance another spot in the cell is taken by mafia.
![[image loading]](https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRbzb57hjcg4xgRCOcL-p41Jse5FP09mgyiDNEZW5qhyYGVdxcM)
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On March 07 2015 04:45 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2015 04:42 geript wrote:On March 07 2015 04:39 Tubesock wrote:On March 07 2015 04:28 geript wrote:On March 07 2015 04:19 Tubesock wrote:
There is risk in cop checking town as mafia. Mafia needs a "confirmed" town so they have an excuse to night kill them instead of any town leading mafia. The risk is that that "check" flips ninja and then it was a 1vs1.
You fucking started talking about how we should kill a ninja first. You hunt ninja. WHY?
Look at the non obvious towns. Kurumi, Sicklucker, Fecalfeast, Batsnacks, me (who Rayne thought was ninja along with Obi), Oats, Onegu, Sepulchre, Slam, and Obi. I bet you thought about the odds of each of those players to flip ninja. Mafia QT probably decided Onegu was a safe bet, plus they could WIFOM how stupid it would be to fake a cellmate. More importantly, they need to protect against a 1 v 1. Getting a cell containing Sandroba was unlucky on mafia's part.
Mafia needs to reduce the odds of a claim flipping ninja. The claim also has to be believable.
Yet, you refuse to believe that there is a chance that none of the top towns are mafia, that all of them are bad or lurky. And also that if one of the top towns IS mafia then they are too stupid to know they have to plan to have an excuse they lived past night 2. Point 1. Complete fail. Confirmed townies are #3 on the list of people to kill. Always #3. Below Roles and people who are able to read the game well and push lynches. Like this is insane. Point 2. I've already explained this. Ninjas on D1 are worse for town than mafia are. It's counter intuitive, but if you remove a Ninja on D1, then you remove 3 KP that is very likely to hit town from the game. That's far more than you get from hitting mafia on D1. Point 3. That's a big list of people who are quite likely to be mafia. GJ if you're town because you're a retard if you believe this shit. Point 4. WAT? Point 5. I think that there are "top town" who could be mafia. Like Robik only started posting after I bugged him. He's also a good enough player to be "salty" after not getting his shot. He's also done reasonably little and isn't following any sort of common sense read that I've seen him use in video mafia. I just don't fucking care to talk about them today because there's literally no point in that right now. I can't lynch Robik today. Kita could be mafia. I really haven't bothered looking at his filter since D1. 10 suspects in a game with 8 nontowns is big? So, everyone should have only 8 suspects with full confidence in 100% accuracy? And funny that's not a town looking for mafia list. thats a mafia looking for ninja list. Outside of the claim people think Sandroba is mafia. Both nk'd towns died scumming Sandroba. But you're fighting and not considering that those people were correct. And if you die along with one of those I would suspect the remainder of being mafia. But they are not showing any indications that they will be saved somehow. You however are "towny" enough to have been given a gun by presumably the town spirit. You are already preemptively providing excuses for how you live. Robik and Kita are not even thinking about that. hahaha that's awesome. I like my ride. I'll get some fuzzy dice for the mirror. You're still not pushing to kill me. I'm clearly being a huge distraction and am trying my best to kill a uncc'd cop power guy who is clearly town. I have to be mafia. There is like no other possible explanation. 100%.
I'm not pushing to kill you because I don't think you're mafia. Hence the short bus.
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On March 07 2015 04:47 sandroba wrote:
Actually I realize i did the math wrong and it's actually 14/19 which makes it 71% but yeah, I think you get my point.
![[image loading]](https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTX2-kRXcPEx2M6fJ2HnddHksjOu_vVEmM0Xfn7qTS41dtuakeCew)
Please continue to fail at how to do statistics. Like there's no way a host would be a bastard like that. No way. BH isn't hosting. I'm not hosting.
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Last note really quick. Batsnacks is almost assuredly mafia. Second, mafia is 100% between Sandroba and SL looking at the votes and how they went down.
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Please people just like much SL
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EPT
