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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 24 2015 10:47 Trfel wrote: Is there a case that I need to defend myself against? lol no but say if mafia zlef makes a case on you that you decide not to defend against that could sway my view on you and your cases | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I can scream WIFOM, or IVE BEEN FRAMED; but the simple analysis is that I look like scum because of this kill. If I were you I would have jumped on this. Granted I don't really know which one of you framed me. You "set your trap" by talking to Shining about WIFOM. Zlefin is saying he knew but was going along with it so "mafiajjb" wouldn't catch it. It's your call. I would think it would be a matter of how intelligent you think I am. Do you think a guy who uses vote analysis to find mafia would make himself look awful in vote analysis? | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I started with zlef. I went through his filter looking for a few things: 1. Times he scumread somebody 2. Times he townread somebody 3. Times he defended himself against somebody 4. Times he didn't specifically townread somebody but his post makes them "appear" more towny 5. Times he didn't specifically scumread somebody but his post makes them "appear" more scummy or draws suspicion or "bad attention" on them 6. He outrights tells people to lynch someone 7. He outright tells people that the person is 100% town (most of the time this should be just if someone claims) I calculated all of these. Funny enough, I found exactly 100 times zlef did one of the above in this game. To compare how he reads strong townreads and strong scumreads as well as how he treated silver in comparison to others. I actually found some interesting things. There are many flaws to this analysis: 1. It's new. Never used it before. I don't have histories to compare you to. I have to compare you to each other. 2. It's flawed. I'm a human and my interpretation of what happens in a post isn't 100% accurate. I'd like to think I can follow a thread, but I can make mistakes. 3. This is hard to justify. Without showing you my spreadsheet its hard for me to justify how I got my numbers. I'm hoping that something I note makes you go back, check, and say hey maybe he's on to something. 4. You have to trust me that I am being honest. Hard to do if you are the other town and there is a very high likelihood you say you don't if you are mafia. 5. Everyone might look bad in this. My argument against this is I'm not expecting you to look good. Just better than the other guy if you are the actual town. If you want my initial opinion? Here it is. I think zlef is mafia. Is that because I filter dived him all night? Possibly. I don't think its fair to zlef for me to make an initial conclusion right now though because I haven't gone through trf's 5000 pages of filter. I think I'm going to be staying up late tomorrow xD | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Warnings before I post my notes: 1. I generally don't write much. My writing on here is actually pretty good in my opinion. I often throw lols everywhere and stuff. If I made a writing error I'M SORRY lol 2. I talk about townread/scumreading proportions. It is natural I would think for most people to scum others over town them. I guess it depends on personality (another thing you can throw at me for this analysis), but you would think you would be more suspicious of others considering there's more people to be suspicious of. Zlef's avg was 2.4 meaning that he scummed people 2.4 times for every time he towned someone. 3. I consider making a post that draws suspicion/puts them in a bad light as scumming. Same with saying something like "i don't see how that is a scumteam" with the person on it for towning. Saying THIS GUY SHOULD BE LYNCHED is in a different category. 4. Ask me questions about something you don't understand. You see into my thinking and better understand my case. 5. It isn't fair to be like Zlef is super bad because of my case yet. Trf could look bad due to this analysis too, I don't know yet. I'm hoping I have a solid conclusion tomorrow. Honestly guys I think this could be golden, for this game and for my games in the future. I doubt anyone else will but I do lolz | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
General Play: Tends to scumread 2.4 times more than townread and 1.6 times more than he defends himself. Told people or referred people to Lynching about 1.5-1.6 times per voting phase. Including defending himself against others, he has a total of 100 reads on people. People: Top people that he made reads on (proportionally per phase) were Hier, then silver, Tere and Rso. People he made the least reads (per phase mind you) the least were Ely and Shining. He has equal reads on both me and Trf, which I found interesting. I also found it interesting that the two least were Ely and Shining considering that Ely was his top scumread until the claim on D2 and Shining he called the most towny of us all. Things that bothered me: 1. He proportionally towned/scummed Rso and Hier. One whom (at least I considered) his top townread D1/N1 and the other guy he found the most likely to be scum D1. He equally towned/scummed them (shows a 1.0 ratio which is the lowest in my analysis) 2. On the opposite end of the spectrum, he does the exact same thing with Shining/Trf. Just recently, he considered Trf and Shining as his most towny and most scummy guy. Proportionally, he scummed them 4-4.5 times more than towned them. 3. Silver is right in the middle of the spectrum. (low is 1 and high is 4.5). If you were wondering her spot was 2.33. This is similar to another number. 2.4 in my first sentence. His average amount of times he scumreads compared to townreads. This bothers me because silver is the only confirmed scum and you could make the argument that Zlef’s playstyle in this game has been a “cover” for silver. He did say he wanted to lynch Silver a lot. People focus on that especially during bus time (if zlef is actually mafia), but his other scumreads tell an entirely different tale. 4. Elyas was his top scumread D2 yet he made two scumreads on the guy. Ely didn’t post a lot but let’s put this in perspective. He scumread silver 7 times and said he wanted to lynch her 3 times. For the more scummier of the two in his mind (before Ely doc claimed of course) he wanted to lynch him once and scumread him 3 times. I’m pretty sure both of their filters are similar in length. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 24 2015 12:56 Trfel wrote: Hm.... I'm skeptical. To start, I've always used the philosophy that people are town until they prove otherwise, while most people use the philosophy that most people are suspect until proved otherwise. I mean, I obviously don't accept people as town right away, but I give them the benefit of the doubt until they do something to not deserve it any more, if that makes sense? I'm interested to see what you come up with, but my hypothesis is that it is too prone to errors. This is fair lol I don't know how well it will work, and I think it will work better when I compare you in this game to you in the next one. I'm hoping it works here. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
#3 was my favorite point on my case lol If I have time after my case on you I will try to help you understand what I'm saying I probably wasn't clear enough in my analysis. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
D1: Opening was what openings are, mostly garbage lol He started scumhunting and his EBWOPing seemed actually relatively towny to me considering his past games (more behavior thing I saw in our first game that he also got scummed on like you did to him D1). D2: He didn't seem too active until Tere pissed him off. Started playing. I thought most of his posts seemed towny. D3: In hindsight, I think his desire to desperately find a counterwagon was good for town. I don't exactly like how he went on me, and I was super pissed about how he was tonereading some of my posts considering that he's been going through my filters for at least 2 games (not including his mafia game), but I didn't really waver on switching my vote at all. I remember having 4 reasons why he was scumming me, and I overall figured he was either trying to one up your case on Tere or seriously wanted to lynch me. It made much more sense to wait to throw that case on my in lylo (assuming the Tere/Palmer lynch still went through) if he was actually scum. Voting analysis had him as the most towny of us four. I'm not going to do a read analysis on him, they take ten years lol | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
The moment probably wasn't too brief honestly. His case was pretty long and I was super pissed about some parts of it. Some parts of were decent, but all the tonereads were like he was looking at a completely new person. I would think he would know me better than that since we've played together about as long as I've played with anyone. While I knew that, you guys didn't know it as much. It seemed like he was using that to his advantage in order to get you guys to mislynch me or at least be suspicious of me instead. He could be town trying desperately to get you guys to look at me or he could be scum taking advantage to prepare for the next mislynch. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Can you go through each player and tell me where you stood on them? Like say I though Rso was top town D1 and Hier was top scum D1. I know Rso's been a super strong townread for you D1 but some of the others I'm not so sure on. I would've said the Shining, but it looks like you didn't really town him until D2ish. Was there anyone else you were relatively clear about? I don't think you ever really thought Tere was ever that towny, did you consider her the most scummy in this game? | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
My initial concern was that Shining came in and scummed you for your opening and then left for a while. Didn't leave a good taste in my mouth. Your opening wasn't really that surprising to me at all lol he made later posts which I found much more towny when going through his filter, but I think my suspicions were more on the opening. I wasn't too confident in him being my #2 at the time so I read through his filter. Caused me to backtrack. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 25 2015 09:07 Trfel wrote: Do you mean, you want a summary of how my reads developed over the course of the entire game?!?! o.O Hmm not exactly. Summaries aren't what I really want. More like categories of how confident you found them in comparison to others. Like I would have Tere hammered down as your strongest scumread and Rso as your strongest. Do two other get close to these categories? Or were you relatively torn about the others? How about this. I think you were considering Shining very towny end game. If I compared it to your thoughts about Rso, would you have considered your stance on them to be relatively similar? | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Zlef if you are around, please try to answer what Trf did about categories. I think I can generally make solid conclusions here, but I am prone to mistakes. Not giving you the opportunity to alleviate a mistake of mine would be biased and unfair. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
General Play: Tends to scumread the average person about 3.7 times compared to townreading them and about 3.4 times more than he defends himself. He made a total of 319 reads on people. People: Top people he made reads on (proportionally per phase) 1. Hier 2. Tere 3. Rso 4. Silver 5. Shining 6. JJB 7. Ely 8. Zlef The most interesting thing here is that his top two townreads and his scumread are all smack dab in the middle. His Scum/Townread Ratio: 1. Silver (19) 2. Tere (4.71) 3. Zlef (2) 4. Hier (1.33) 5. JJB (.95) 6. Ely (.83) 7. Rso (.6) 8. Shining (.52) Things that Bother Me (I admit this is weak, I’m struggling here): 1. Elyas was a top town read for him, yet he barely had to defend himself against Ely. He also made the second least amount of reads on him. Ely did turn doc, so he was right, but should he have been SO right? 2. Why does his read analysis look so good when the vote analysis says otherwise? 3. You could make a case about him hammering Silver. It’s beyond weak but it’s still a case you could make for bussing. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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