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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 25 2015 12:29 Trfel wrote: I didn't have ElyAs at a strong townread until he claimed. It would have been a weak townread until then. Did you have Shining/Tere as a higher Townread in D2 around the time Tere made her case on you? | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Number of reads I had on Zlefin was 100. The way I counted reads was a little primitive. Later, I put the reads in categories to make a better analysis. Instead of summing up all the categories, I instead counted all the reads. I counted 100. Now after 1 day, I have 114 reads after summing up the categories instead. Nothing really changed, as most of these reads are on me and Trf, but I think I miscounted the 100. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I will move on to a conclusion, but I think just looking at the cases makes my conclusion pretty obvious lol | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
General Play: Tends to scumread the average person about 2.35 times compared to townreading them and about 1.5 times more than he defends himself. He made a total of 114 reads on people. People: Top people he made reads on (proportionally per phase) 1. Hier 2. Silver 3. JJB 4. Tere 5. Trf 6. Rso 7. Shining 8. Ely I find many things interesting about this. First, look at the top four people, all the lynched people. Also, look at the bottom. His top scumread (at the time before his flip) and townread (at the time before his flip) are AT THE BOTTOM. His Scum/Townread Ratio: 1. Shining (4) 2. Trf (3.33) 3. Tere (3) 4. Ely (3) 5. Silver (2.33) 6. Me (1.14) 7. Rso (1) 8. Hier (1) Things that Bother Me (I feel this is much stronger): 1. I generally considered Hier to be on zlefin’s “top scum” list D1 with Rso on his “top town” list D1. Why did he read them the same way? 2. Why would Ely be his top scumread when he made the least amount of reads (per phase) on him? I know Ely wasn’t an active player, but still. 3. Silver was at about the average for the Scum/Townread Ratio, despite being his #2 target for making reads. Which means that he talked about silver a lot, but didn’t really lean to far one way or another (compared to average) on making silver look bad. If I could bold this point I would. It looks like he is making sure he is talking about silver enough, but not scumming her more than he should. Yet he bussed the vote. 4. His top four people (mentioned above) are all guys he wants to lynch. This shows that he isn’t really providing too many reads outside what he absolutely has to. A prime example to follow this up is Day 3 with killing Tere/Palmer. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 25 2015 13:02 Trfel wrote: Yes to both. I need to go to sleep, sorry. I'll take another look at what you come up with tomorrow. That is fine, I'm crashing when I finish. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Reasons for voting zlef: 1. As posted in my cases above, my read analysis puts zlef in a very incriminating light. 2. Also posted above, Trf looks beyond fantastic as town. He said in his filter that he could write books about why he's so town. My analysis agrees with that (even though my vote analysis doesn't). 3. I honestly don't think Trf could look this good with 319 reads. Call me a unbeliever of Trf's scum game, but it would be hard to look this good with 319 reads. Possible Concerns with My Analysis: 1. Zlef is less experienced than Trf, meaning he should look more incriminating. Factoring this in is hard, but I do not believe that this makes up for HOW MUCH worse he looks than Trf. 2. This analysis is new. I am bound to make it better by factoring things in, and help alleviate mistakes that could have been caused in this analysis. However, right now I think this thing is beyond golden. Granted if Trf flips scum, this analysis is complete garbage, but I'm really don't think he flips scum here. Look out Trf. If you truly are scum and you roll scum next game I play with you, you are in deep trouble lol 3. Zlef did look better in my vote analysis. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 25 2015 13:02 Trfel wrote: Yes to both. I need to go to sleep, sorry. I'll take another look at what you come up with tomorrow. While I could make a case stating why it's hard for me to believe that you had Tere in a higher light, I will let that one go for now. Let's just say I could see why Tere would say that you were killing her ladyboner lol I could see Shining higher than Ely at the time though. If you could defend my point about you looking bad voting analysis wise, that would greatly help me. While my voting analysis hasn't worked in any of my games so far, I would like to think it does mean something and am still using it in this game to help weigh you and zlef. Answer me this: Why does my voting analysis make you look worse than zlef (I explain it in my filter end of N3)? What kind of case could you make that proves that my voting analysis does not portray you accurately in this game? | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I'm assuming I should answer your questions over comment on your case first? | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
If you truly believed I was the scummiest D1 then my first point might not be valid. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
That is why I didn't bank too many of my points on just reads, I think the ratio matters more with the data I have. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 25 2015 23:59 Trfel wrote: Jarjarbinks, some questions for you. Why is the case that I bused Silverarte weak? Why does my read analysis look good? Just because of the large number of reads? My usage of my vote is poor. I haven't been very good at using my vote to pressure, so I mostly just wait until I'm sure who I want to lynch and vote for them then. Zlefin, in Night 3 you listed the percentages for each player being scum. With Palmar dead, I have the highest remaining percentage. Why did you not vote for me? On the first question, where are you referring to? If it was what I posted in my read analysis, then I was unclear. If it is somewhere else you'll have to remind me where I said that. Your read analysis is better than I would expect out of a normal person. Especially someone that hasn't played THAT many games. Like your a vet, but not close to vet status. The first one off of the top of my head is that your top two scumreads are the two girls that you scumread the most and townread the least. I'll use Tere as an example. In your 98 reads on Tere (including defenses), you scumread her 66 times and towned her 14 times. That is something you would expect from a person who tunneled so hard on Tere to get her lynched. Granted it was a mislynch, but your actions followed your reads. There is no deception or confusion here. Let me know if this doesn't make sense and I'll try to explain it better. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Plus in my reads, some people like to make it seem like theyre saying someone is null but they really are just shedding light on something they think is suspicious Things like that I can see this way. You did that to Tere a lot lol Plus you can look at other things as well. Like my point on Zlefin on the number of reads, that could show lack of effort while attempting to appear like you are making an effort. It definitely isn't perfect right now, and could use a tweak or two; but I need to see if the general concept actually works. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 26 2015 08:06 Trfel wrote: This is what I refer to when I ask why the case on me busing Silverarte is weak. Almost all of your reads on Silver (pretty much) are scumming her. You had good reason to, but if you are mafia and think your scumbuddy is vulnerable to getting lynched soon, then you might think that scumming her often and early is a good strategy farther down the road. Honestly I felt that this point is weak, but possible. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 25 2015 20:59 zlefin wrote: Ok, I think I found the question: it's about how my views varied over the course of the game? in general I'd think the history of the points I posted would serve better than my memory for that (it's the ratios that matter most). since night 2 my views have changed very little, just a mild boost to you jjb, that put you scummier than trfel (by a slight margin) If you want more details than the history of the point system provides, I'll be on today to answer it. Zlef, do you understand my third point? That was my strongest one in my opinion. Do you have a decent defense against it? | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 26 2015 08:17 Trfel wrote: Can you convince me that you are town? Can you convince me that you are scum? I wish my play would convince you I was town. I thought I played better in this game than my other two, although that is a pretty low hurdle lol I don't know if my play will ever convince people I'm town. I think I've had some decent reads and some not so decent ones. You could spin my game to be convinced I was scum. Voting analysis looks bad, Shining's death looks bad. I don't make the best cases or have the best reads. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 26 2015 08:21 Trfel wrote: Oh, and just to clarify, are you accusing me of being sexist? Because if you are....... lolz Totes sexist. They all be hatin | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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