EPTNew Years Eve Party Mini Mafia - Page 3
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lalalipop
56 Posts
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lalalipop
56 Posts
I'm still up to kill lian btw, he is still one of my top scumreads. | ||
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lalalipop
56 Posts
On January 14 2015 23:57 LightningStrike wrote: Also when a Mafia call a player Town it like almost certain that they are really are town. I'm popping in for 10 minutes to say that this comment is not valid. | ||
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lalalipop
56 Posts
On January 15 2015 04:07 LightningStrike wrote: Okay explain how it's not valid then? It's a rule of thumb I learned from experience with playing with vets. It's normally applied to the weakers as far I can tell. Look at it this way, when mafia calls someone town, that someone can be A) Town or B) Mafia. If the person is A) Town, the mafia probably did it either as an excuse to show he had tons of reads, or he have plotted some stupid strategy to kill that guy off so that he looks very good for the death. Or, he don't want to call that person mafia since its hard to do so. If the person is B) Mafia, the mafia probably did it either to fill in the gaps (most mafia go for some townreads on mafia and some scumreads on the other mafias) or he did it because that person is the weaker player in their team, and would flip mafia. He would gain town cred too. Even from a mathematical perspective, 11 town 3 mafia, to call someone town (given you called 3 person mafia, regardless of which 3), it would be 11/14 chance anyone would be called town if he is mafia. Of course, how good the town player is will heavily affect this statistic (less scum will call a good player mafia, they're fighting uphills to lynch him) | ||
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lalalipop
56 Posts
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lalalipop
56 Posts
SL claimed all the roles there were. If eden flipped mafia i would be really sad. He is my top town. | ||
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lalalipop
56 Posts
On January 15 2015 04:20 LightningStrike wrote: Fair enough. Also can you tell me your reads before you go? lynch from here first: Lian DrP Lynch here if there is good reason/PoE: batsnacks mderg Try not to lynch: Eden SL Do not lynch: LS | ||
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lalalipop
56 Posts
Lian didn't carry out the kp at night according to SL. If we were to trust SL on that information (SL could be a team with lian), by PoE, we can narrow the 1 possible scum to mderg/eden/bats. (its still possible for lian to be mafia, just that he didn't carry out the kp) HOWEVER, 1 other case exists, where SL claimed almost everything, from vet to tracker, as a ploy to fish out a CC. They have nailed the town rb, the vig have came out, so SL can claim whatever hell he wants if he is scum. If he is just a goon, having him dead for CC is still a good trade. I'm deciding which scenario is more likely, and I think that its more likely that theres one scum in mderg/eden/bats. Comparing these 3, I would lynch mderg> bats> eden. Losing eden would mean town loses a direction and if eden was town, lynching him would end the game anyway. If he was scum though, then he must read his PM wrongly and helped town. Bats was great in d1, but quickly descended to 'losing interest' by d3. Can't see much scum motivation to just fuck it and afk when scum just shot a pr. mderg is the more likely candidate here. Most people have a scumteam consisting of mderg as well, so a lynch on mderg would have a higher chance to get scum at this scrappy game. If everyone thinks of the same thing, then they must have suspected it,, right? | ||
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