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Yeah, I wish we would lol. I only addressed the doc one cause people saying they're gonna auto-lynch someone in MYLO/LYLO makes me nervous.
This is going to sound odd from me given I was scumreading Shining Day 1 and am still uncertain of him...and since I've been questioning JarJar on wtf he's doing...but the part in Shining's case about ExO jumping around a lot?
He mentioned every single person except Trfel in mostly individual posts Day 1 (which makes his dinky filter look longer, addresses everyone like a list post without actually being a list post), AFK voted LS for almost 24 hours, then came back, and still never mentioned anything alignment-wise on Trfel, only addressing him to oddly enough argue the WW case when he was pushing the LS case.
Then rage!fitted at WW for playing bad and disappeared all night, to start back in on LS again beginning Day 2.
Even though LS' case wasn't strong, his read may not be wrong, on ExO or -Celestial-. It's hard to pin down, but I'm getting a funny feeling that ExO was probing the waters to see which lynches might gain momentum rather than actually scumhunting. That's reinforced by talking about WWs reads and arguing with Trfel while staying on LS...
Also, there is no way if he read the game that he doesn't realize I was the one who first started pushing at -Celestial-...and many people not only voted for him but also questioned him.
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Dude, sorry your job sucks :/
Okay, it seemed like lying from my perspective. Maybe I just read your posts wrong. Like this one:
On January 07 2015 22:05 jarjarbinks wrote:
No more snow days for me. Ill be back from work 2200 hopefully will have time to post before possible death. Glhf till then.
Is this a typo or something? I'm not pulling the stuff out of my ass, I promise.
Apart from that I get what you're doing...problem is...I just don't see how it's going to be enough to help town lynch scum tomorrow. The votes of the dead can at least be expected to be based on true opinions, but it doesn't mean those opinions were necessarily right, and with the LS lynch there's practically nothing to gain from the voting at all >< which irritates the shit out of me, frankly. I wanted more information after Day 2. Instead all we get is LS is town and Celestial may or may not be the doctor.
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Instead I'm sitting here trying to analyze what people say -_- and knowing you to be a generally truthful person...hell, unless you're joking you don't lie at all, what I thought to be lies made me very suspicious of you. If they're not, though, then okay. I know how your mind works.
Can you help me with what people are saying, or are you still disregarding that in your analysis?
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we have a replacement o.0
Hi scott! So, um...you're kinda working with null. Let us know when you catch up? New eyes may help ><
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HTS...there was one post in his filter that stood out...
On January 07 2015 05:07 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2015 04:50 -Celestial- wrote:On January 07 2015 04:28 Tubesock wrote:
HTS, I know you're waiting on some responses to your questions from others, but do you have a D1 lynch list?
I'm starting to get worried that with such little activity, and so many who still need to vote, that people are going to be doing bullshit shenanies at EoD.
Do you have lynch targets outside of Shining, JarJar, and Warwaffle?
I don't think so. I think that's basically the list at this point. Personally I think its a pretty reasonable list for the stage we're at too. @ExO_: What are your thoughts on LS (and others) pointing out he's played exactly the same way when he's been town on several previous occasions? I've been somewhat persuaded by that enough to conclude that for now I don't think he's the best D1 lynch. I mean I'm still not won over to make him town, but ideally we're looking for a D1 mafia lynch and I don't think he's the one to guarantee it. Correct me if I'm wrong but is there any example of his mafia play? If there isn't any evidence to show that he'd act differently as scum, then I think the town-meta-read on him is garbage. And even if there is, his play here in this game seems scummish to me. It doesn't matter if in a previous game similar play from him was town. It might if I was on the fence with him, but I'm not. Which is why I think he IS the day 1 mafia lynch. I think he's trying to be active enough so that we have to say "He's a bad day 1 lynch." Compared to the other candidates (Shining/JarJar/WW) I think he's the best bet. I believe it strongly enough that I'm not willing to concede the vote for now, subsequently voting for one of the others.
That was about two hours before EoD.
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Considering he then did stay on LS, arguing with Trfel on WW seems out of place. I read back through his post progression, and Trfel was even initially voting LS...
Though ExO's post progression does show some weakening on the LS lynch, I don't know. Seems kind of weird to be pushing WW with someone voting his top scumread already, if he's not willing to switch off onto WW himself in the end.
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Answer my previous question to you then, please.
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On January 11 2015 05:54 ExO_ wrote:
Computer is finally working again. I've been working on it since 9am.
I'm not sure what exactly rsoultin is trying to say here. That somehow I wasn't scum hunting? I feel like I'm one of the few in the thread that's at least tried. For all the talk, I pushed Celestial day 2, because I thought his play was scummy. Hell he might be scum now. I'm not 100% sold on his doc claim. But what did everybody else besides tubesock do? Just stuck on LS.
I scumread LS on day 1. I thought WW was kinda scummy too. And based on his play I feel like the lynch on WW was justified. For a blue town role, WW played like garbage. I think the same of LS, for a town role he played very poorly. And I can tell you since I scum read LS on day 1, it's very easy for me to stay on him day 2. I have an ego, I want to be right and be able to say "check out how good I am, I picked him out on day1!". But it didn't go down like that.
That being said, you've gotta be kidding me. I don't switch off of the votes day 1 because it wasn't necessary. I think I would've preferred LS lynch day 1, but the WW lynch made sense to me. And as I've said previously, I would've switched to WW if vote shenanigans went down at the last second.
My read on LS was wrong. But at least I'm trying to scum read people. And I'm trying hard not to tunnel vision on the first scum read I make.
If you have questions for me ask. I'll do my best to explain anything I've said. I can tell you for sure though I am not scum, and I think my play this game shows that.
To be honest with you, ExO...I don't get your LS/WW progression because of your argument with Trfel
It seems like you're pushing him toward WW in that post, while staying on LS, after you already said you wouldn't move your vote from LS. Afterwards you claimed that you'd move after you were asked about the fit you threw after flip, but nothing about it beforehand.
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On January 11 2015 03:23 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2015 08:46 ExO_ wrote:
I am. and at least for me, I think it's a sign he's scum.
If he flips scum it'll be easy to see that scum all bussed him because they were afraid. And since he had a bit of attention on day 1 as well, I think it'll be easy to work out who might be scum.
Compare this to day 1, in which we lynched a town. The votes where everywhere. It'd be surprising to me if all the mafia ended up on the same town wagon.
On the other hand, if he flips town then this gets really hard. it could be that LS has had too much momentum on him all of day 2, but when Tube and I were both pushing Celestial nobody else even tried to get another wagon going, or jumped on Celestial....which now that I think about it might be revealing.
Still, we'll have a much better idea in 15 minutes. Where were you going with this? You apparently had an idea that you failed to address after flip even though LS did in fact flip town. But all you wanted to talk about was game mechanics?
That.
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Lol, I'm less certain about Celestial than I was. I want to call him scum so bad, because I think his town play was crap if he was town...sorry, I should probably be nicer about it, but, eh...I do think he actually breadcrumbed (advertently or inadvertently) his role to some extent if he was doctor.
For instance, he was super concerned about being NKd, kept going on about it. The concern about bluehunting in the beginning I think was over the top, unless he was concerned because he had a blue role and so was paranoid about it. And then there's how his discussion of the NKs was so doctor focused. He kept going back to players who were likely to be doc saves being the explanation for why Trfel (not a likely doc save) was killed.
To me that seems that if he was scum at the very least his mind was on what the doctor was doing, or he was deliberately trying to breadcrumb. I think there's way too much doubt without a CC and the breadcrumbing to justify a Celestial lynch unless you're down to the last scum and are sold on everyone else being town.
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I also disagree with you on that, Tube, about ExO. Scum or town can buddy up or cast doubt, and he never followed through on that post (that I recall).
The follow-through from ExO is missing for scum-hunting, I think. You see HTS doing it. Asking questions. Reevaluating the answers. ExO seems to just throw it out there.
I encourage you to read his filter. It seems very scattershot to me, especially on Day 1.
I also don't like at all that he keeps on about you and him being the "Celestial push". No offense, but the majority of his argument were the things I already said looked scummy about Celestial's EoD play. And they did. However he conveniently forgets where he got those points from?
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I guess I'm not really following.
How was he veting you?
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His post just reads to me like he's softing yet another point on Celestial. Whether you knew what he was talking about or not doesn't seem that significant, since he specifically mentioned it was the opening post that he was talking about, and all it takes is a look through the filter to find it.
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I just don't know how you could arrive at any different answer, is all. I'm not saying you're not critically thinking. Just not sure that ExO was doing anything but bringing up another point on Celestial, and really not seeing how that post was alignment indicative at all.
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He was directing his post at Celestial.
He started a case against Celestial about lying about LS. Kept on the LS wagon. Then brought up Trfel's filter to Celestial. A scum motivation for it could be as simple as giving himself an excuse to switch his vote over.
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On January 09 2015 08:03 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 07:51 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 07:43 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial
Why do you think mafia nked trfel? Does the above answer your question? In short: main reason being disruption. Because it makes us doubt the three people up for vote on D1 because he didn't much like any of the targets. It did to a degree. Let me ask you another question. Trfel said he didn't like any of the lynches. Having reread his filter a couple times, I found something to be odd. Before the it became apparent that WW or LS or Shining was likely to die, there was only one person whoose opening post he specifically mentions as being off. He never got to really expand on it, but can you guess who it is?
This one wasn't it?
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He quoted Celeste when he posted that. See the nested quote.
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Yeah, I see it, but he's quoting Celestial who just asked him if he'd answered ExO's question?
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Nah, it's okay, Tube. I called my brother a liar for what was probably a typo lol. We all misread sometimes.
ExO...you're repeating yourself -_-
And you're not answering my question to you. I just...you're frustrating me -_-
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On January 08 2015 14:33 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2015 14:02 rsoultin wrote:
HTS, you still here? I need someone to talk to who I'm not scumreading/feeling iffy about.
What are your impressions on the voting? I read your earlier post and can see you're not sure about LS or JarJar right now.
Something else came to mind as I was thinking. Why are Celestial and ExO mad at WW for softclaiming when they weren't voting for him in the first place? It's an idle thought but seems out of place from where I'm sitting now. I get the ones who were scumreading/lynching him being upset. I'm mad at WW for bad play. He has a blue role. but he's inactive as hell, and when he does post his reads are bad and filled with wrong information. Then he soft claims blue when he's about to die. I know I'd try to fake claim if I was a mafia and looking like the inevitable lynch, and that's what this looked like to me. So I'm mad that an important town player couldn't take the time to play the game, potentially fucking the rest of us over. I didn't switch my vote over to him because I didn't need to. But I was around at EoD and you better believe I was watching for last second shenanigans. If I saw people moving votes at the last second, I would've jumped on to the WW train. I still believe LS was the better vote. I still believe LS is scum now. But the case on WW was decent in my opinion.
This is the first time you mention making a vote change, ExO, after I questioned your reaction to the flip. You didn't leading up to EoD. If you did, please link me to it, because I'm not seeing it.
I'm sorry, but anyone can concoct a story later.
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EPT
