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On January 10 2015 01:13 -Celestial- wrote:
Also nice to note that this is the SECOND blue train that a bunch of people have been on.
rsoultin noteworthy for being the one who started the first and laid some groundwork for this one right after citing Shining as a top scumread on both occassions. And Silver for diving in here, dropping the vote on each occassion, and then largely disappearing again.
Assuming rsoultin is mafia. You really believe she *knows* who 2 of our blues were before they claimed?
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On January 10 2015 01:15 -Celestial- wrote:
I'm fed up of this anyway. Vote me or don't, I'm tired of this game. If I survive the day I'll at least make sure to be on for the Night so I can try to save somebody, I'm not going to just throw the game away outright, but I'm fed up of trying to explain to people my reads only to have them go "nooo" and then misquote stuff at me.
You fucking claimed. You're not getting lynched.
Fucking town in this game.
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The case summed up on Lightning it's basically
1. sheeps all reads
2. towns all actives and nulls lurkers
3. has shown he doesn't read posts
4. while claims he is "pushing" Celestial he never did in a productive manner, and at best sheeped ExO's initial questioning
5. claimed while 1 person was asking a couple questions, which I didn't think was actual pressure
6. told us he was going to quit, while we were discussing killing celestial (more not reading posts and even guilty mafia fear)
The things that he might be town:
I have a bad theory on that towns him. HTS convinced me why that's wrong.
I thought he didn't show much fear while interacting but wow looking back, there is a lot of fear. light questioning and he claims, and rsoultin puts him on a list and he says he's quiting.
Plus, he really pisses me off. LS if you are town, I'm probably getting banned for my post game posts.
##Vote: LightningStrike
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On January 10 2015 01:17 -Celestial- wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2015 01:15 Tubesock wrote:On January 10 2015 01:13 -Celestial- wrote:
Also nice to note that this is the SECOND blue train that a bunch of people have been on.
rsoultin noteworthy for being the one who started the first and laid some groundwork for this one right after citing Shining as a top scumread on both occassions. And Silver for diving in here, dropping the vote on each occassion, and then largely disappearing again. Assuming rsoultin is mafia. You really believe she *knows* who 2 of our blues were before they claimed? No, I didn't outright say that. But it still makes me uncomfortable, especially given jarjar's story outlining how she might have played D1 (providing excuses for not being around EoD whilst actually being around to see the blue claim).
It's very bad luck for town that's for sure.
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On January 10 2015 01:41 LightningStrike wrote:
ExO have to be scum he called me and Celestial scum when we were town with Celestial being a Uncounterclaimed Doctor and never found scum because he is scum and doesn't want to call out his teammates.
You can't really scum him for not finding any scum yet. None of us have.
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On January 10 2015 01:49 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2015 01:42 Tubesock wrote:On January 10 2015 01:41 LightningStrike wrote:
ExO have to be scum he called me and Celestial scum when we were town with Celestial being a Uncounterclaimed Doctor and never found scum because he is scum and doesn't want to call out his teammates. You can't really scum him for not finding any scum yet. None of us have. He only been scum reading town why else why would he go after me and Celestial?
By that logic I'm the scummiest scum who's ever scummed before.
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On January 10 2015 01:51 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2015 01:49 Half the Sky wrote:On January 10 2015 01:41 LightningStrike wrote:
ExO have to be scum he called me and Celestial scum when we were town with Celestial being a Uncounterclaimed Doctor and never found scum because he is scum and doesn't want to call out his teammates. LS, there is a difference between scumhunting and finding scum. He is scumhunting, but very well could be on the wrong track. How many times have we said in games that just because someone is town, that they are not always correct? Let me ask what is track record so far on finding scum? I found 0 because I know I'm town and Celestial is a Uncounterclaimed Doctor. Scum likes to go for easy mislynches and me and Celestial are unfortunatly easy mislynches.
Celestial is not an easy mlynch. In fact he's not getting lynched. He was pretty highly regarded town before his wagon began.
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On January 10 2015 01:53 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2015 01:52 Tubesock wrote:On January 10 2015 01:49 LightningStrike wrote:On January 10 2015 01:42 Tubesock wrote:On January 10 2015 01:41 LightningStrike wrote:
ExO have to be scum he called me and Celestial scum when we were town with Celestial being a Uncounterclaimed Doctor and never found scum because he is scum and doesn't want to call out his teammates. You can't really scum him for not finding any scum yet. None of us have. He only been scum reading town why else why would he go after me and Celestial? By that logic I'm the scummiest scum who's ever scummed before. He far better than you in terms of scummiest of scum becasue he bothering to make cases which is seen townie but he using to get rid of townies though that my issue with him. Step it up in memory of me this game and we call it even since I led your mislynch and you leading mine.
Uh, FecalFeast lead my mlynch in carol. At least he started it, rsoultin and HTS kept it alive if I remember.
I ACTUALLY MURDERED A BLUE ROLE. HOW CAN THAT BE LESS SCUMMY IN YOUR WORLD THAN A SIMPLE CASE THAT DOESN'T ACTUALLY KILL ANYONE??
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On January 10 2015 01:56 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2015 01:56 Tubesock wrote:On January 10 2015 01:53 LightningStrike wrote:On January 10 2015 01:52 Tubesock wrote:On January 10 2015 01:49 LightningStrike wrote:On January 10 2015 01:42 Tubesock wrote:On January 10 2015 01:41 LightningStrike wrote:
ExO have to be scum he called me and Celestial scum when we were town with Celestial being a Uncounterclaimed Doctor and never found scum because he is scum and doesn't want to call out his teammates. You can't really scum him for not finding any scum yet. None of us have. He only been scum reading town why else why would he go after me and Celestial? By that logic I'm the scummiest scum who's ever scummed before. He far better than you in terms of scummiest of scum becasue he bothering to make cases which is seen townie but he using to get rid of townies though that my issue with him. Step it up in memory of me this game and we call it even since I led your mislynch and you leading mine. Uh, FecalFeast lead my mlynch in carol. At least he started it, rsoultin and HTS kept it alive if I remember. I ACTUALLY MURDERED A BLUE ROLE. HOW CAN THAT BE LESS SCUMMY IN YOUR WORLD THAN A SIMPLE CASE THAT DOESN'T ACTUALLY KILL ANYONE?? I made the case on you before FecalFeast got on it.
Ok fine. Uncle.
Build a case on ExO then. Please try try to make sure you make sense and the mafia motivations in his play.
Heads up though. Citing him building a case on a town isn't valid evidence. There were what 3-4 others with cases on celestial?
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I'm never playing another newbie game ever. The next game I play with LightningStrike my entrance to the game will be
##Vote: LightningStrike
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Silverarte, are you mafia?
Jarjarbinks, same question.
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Geript and Sickucker are mafia coaches. I don't know Geript, but I know Sicklucker is one tricky devious mother fucker.
How important is it for mafia to kill the doc if they have a roleblocker? I don't know the validity of the no vet & doc idea, but I don't really care either. It's safer to play it in the most conservative way I think.
What is our risk if we don't lynch Celestial Day 3? We won't listen to a word he says. He wastes a roleblock night action every night or mafia risks a save.
If mafia knows/thinks we lynch Celestial Day 3, why on earth would they kill him tonight? They can kill a strong town, and if he is in fact a doc we lynch him for mafia the next day. It's lose/lose for town.
If he is mafia and we don't lynch him immediately, it will allow mafia to freely try to roleblock our blues that are still alive. I think that's worth the risk. Course the way my luck is going, my next wagon will be on another blue.
ExO, Rsoultin, Half The Sky. Please, please tell me if I have flawed thinking here. If this is a sound plan, are you guys willing to pledge to wait a day to lynch Celestial? I will sheep your decision.
Celestial, if this plan is vetted by the above, you may only post once per phase to avoid modkill and it shall say "I'm sorry." If there is a night where there is a save, we will reevaluate your posting privileges. If you don't agree to this, you will learn what real condescension is.
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On January 10 2015 16:22 Half the Sky wrote:Back in thread after a great night. That said, I'm absolutely horrified at this lynch. Rasputin, to answer your question regarding LS, you are correct in a sense that no he doesn't have developed reads but that's when you ask questions and/or make statements on reads. And that's where I felt I was running into problems, but I gave him the BOTD through D1 until the blue issue and the mention that he was tunnelled. Today I asked him about the blue issue and this is what he said: Show nested quote +On January 10 2015 00:41 LightningStrike wrote:
2. I didn't believe the soft blue claim because if I was scum I would Soft Claim blue myself although I didn't in Student Mafia IV but that was because both of the Blue roles were killed in the first 36 hours of the game so I couldn't soft claim blue in that game. Generally speaking scum would soft claim blue more likely than a town that what the impression I gotten from looking at other games. I saw that and I'd be thinking just the opposite especially with more experience. Still, I read his case and asked questions, but when I saw he was talking about ExO switching to WW with no explanation, I checked the votes and ExO's filter and that clearly wasn't true. LS even said in his second comment that it was in Exo's filter, and doing that and coming up with a different result, it was another red flag to me.
Horrified at what lynch? The LightningStrike one? Or you mean the ExO one?
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On January 10 2015 16:27 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2015 16:22 Half the Sky wrote:Back in thread after a great night. That said, I'm absolutely horrified at this lynch. Rasputin, to answer your question regarding LS, you are correct in a sense that no he doesn't have developed reads but that's when you ask questions and/or make statements on reads. And that's where I felt I was running into problems, but I gave him the BOTD through D1 until the blue issue and the mention that he was tunnelled. Today I asked him about the blue issue and this is what he said: On January 10 2015 00:41 LightningStrike wrote:
2. I didn't believe the soft blue claim because if I was scum I would Soft Claim blue myself although I didn't in Student Mafia IV but that was because both of the Blue roles were killed in the first 36 hours of the game so I couldn't soft claim blue in that game. Generally speaking scum would soft claim blue more likely than a town that what the impression I gotten from looking at other games. I saw that and I'd be thinking just the opposite especially with more experience. Still, I read his case and asked questions, but when I saw he was talking about ExO switching to WW with no explanation, I checked the votes and ExO's filter and that clearly wasn't true. LS even said in his second comment that it was in Exo's filter, and doing that and coming up with a different result, it was another red flag to me. Horrified at what lynch? The LightningStrike one? Or you mean the ExO one?
Disregard, unless you didn't mean ExO.
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On January 10 2015 16:41 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2015 16:17 Tubesock wrote:
How important is it for mafia to kill the doc if they have a roleblocker? I don't know the validity of the no vet & doc idea, but I don't really care either. It's safer to play it in the most conservative way I think.
What is our risk if we don't lynch Celestial Day 3? We won't listen to a word he says. He wastes a roleblock night action every night or mafia risks a save. If you're in MYLO/LYLO you should go for whoever you are most sure of to be scum, why take a shot at someone you aren't as sure of? That's the risk right there. The medic gains information every night through their saves, so faced with a decision, scum should be killing him particularly getting closer to lylo. I mentioned before that they have the most hard info through their actions. Regardless, Celestial had good reason to be scumread pre-claim.
Ok cool. I'm not going to waste any more thought about this.
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On January 10 2015 16:45 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2015 16:41 Half the Sky wrote:On January 10 2015 16:17 Tubesock wrote:
How important is it for mafia to kill the doc if they have a roleblocker? I don't know the validity of the no vet & doc idea, but I don't really care either. It's safer to play it in the most conservative way I think.
What is our risk if we don't lynch Celestial Day 3? We won't listen to a word he says. He wastes a roleblock night action every night or mafia risks a save. If you're in MYLO/LYLO you should go for whoever you are most sure of to be scum, why take a shot at someone you aren't as sure of? That's the risk right there. The medic gains information every night through their saves, so faced with a decision, scum should be killing him particularly getting closer to lylo. I mentioned before that they have the most hard info through their actions. Regardless, Celestial had good reason to be scumread pre-claim. Ok cool. I'm not going to waste any more thought about this.
I'm a liar, I'm still thinking about this.
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Damnit, I don't think I'm going to be around tomorrow till too close to EoD. I'm also fairly drunk so my reasoning maybe off.
I want to push mafia to night kill celetial tonight. Why the fuck would I want that?
The world I see, the play I would make IF and only IF mafia has a roleblocker AND it's obvious town WILL LYNCH Celestial I would not waste my night kill on Celestial. Sicklucker is a smart crafty bastard. If he has those two conditions (which he easily could) why nk Celestial? The doc gets save blocked at 100% chance to succeed due to guaranteed roleblock. WIFOM us with a vegi who kills the roleblocker (low fucking odds).
They gain another free kill, and town gains 0 information. Let's prevent that play. It's easy and risk free. He lives to daytime, you bet your ass he dies that day. Or do you? Do you? Do I?
Just "claim" you won't lynch Celestial. I totally won't. Or will I?
Tin foil hat people. Tin fucking foil hat.
CHUFUCKINGPAZI!!!!!
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This is what I want to do.
I see that I can not get Jarjar to interact with me. This isn't really alignment indicative. It's pretty obvious, if he does, there are high odds he gets pressured enough to die. I think Jarjar is scum. I even made an algorithm.
I dug out my commodore 64 and inputted a complex algorithm for measuring probabilities. It's complex but foolproof.
I input scenario X and it will compare the probability of said scenario with the probability of me shitting out monkeys that fly, piss rainbows and shit a mixture of gold, shit, and bunnies for my morning constitution. My algorithm will also give a % of X with % breakdowns of the flying monkey shit's composition.
I asked it what the probability of Jarjar being town. It reported a 46% less chance of flying, rainbow pissing, goldshitbunny pooping monkeys that come out of my bowels during my next morning constitution.
The gold shit bunny ratio was 39%, 38%, 33%.
That may have been mean. Sorry. I respect you enough to think it's funny, and not be so fragile that some anonymous asshole on the internet can randomly hurt you in a silly ( but AWESOME!!!) forum game.
I also am investigating Silverarte. Although, I maybe nitpicking. I see no town motivation in her play. No initiative, no hunting. If someone didn't tell her what to post, she wouldn't know.
Rsoultin and Half the Sky are confirmed town until I know what JJB and Silver flip. JJB and Silver are by far the highest percentage of mafia in this game. I checked my algorithm. It's science, you can't argue with science.
ExO_ is town for those same reasons plus this:
On January 09 2015 08:03 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 07:51 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 07:43 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial
Why do you think mafia nked trfel? Does the above answer your question? In short: main reason being disruption. Because it makes us doubt the three people up for vote on D1 because he didn't much like any of the targets. It did to a degree. Let me ask you another question. Trfel said he didn't like any of the lynches. Having reread his filter a couple times, I found something to be odd. Before the it became apparent that WW or LS or Shining was likely to die, there was only one person whoose opening post he specifically mentions as being off. He never got to really expand on it, but can you guess who it is?
I smiled and clapped my hands like a 12 year old school girl going to see New Kids on the Block when I saw him post this.
I don't know what he was really doing, maybe I misinterpreted it. I took it as vetting my motivations for joining him while he pressured -Celestial-. Mafia wouldn't bother with it, they would buddy up to me as they already know my alignment. He's being suspicious of me, why would mafia be suspicious? Why would mafia check to see if the person helping them kill someone was reading a filter critically? Sure, WIFOM this as some high level shit. For me, it's enough to go for more solid behavior or lack thereof. Hi Jarjar and Silver!!
I do think it would be awesome to keep -Celestial- alive so I can mock him for every post he makes.
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On January 11 2015 06:36 rsoultin wrote:
Lol, I'm less certain about Celestial than I was. I want to call him scum so bad, because I think his town play was crap if he was town...sorry, I should probably be nicer about it, but, eh...I do think he actually breadcrumbed (advertently or inadvertently) his role to some extent if he was doctor.
For instance, he was super concerned about being NKd, kept going on about it. The concern about bluehunting in the beginning I think was over the top, unless he was concerned because he had a blue role and so was paranoid about it. And then there's how his discussion of the NKs was so doctor focused. He kept going back to players who were likely to be doc saves being the explanation for why Trfel (not a likely doc save) was killed.
To me that seems that if he was scum at the very least his mind was on what the doctor was doing, or he was deliberately trying to breadcrumb. I think there's way too much doubt without a CC and the breadcrumbing to justify a Celestial lynch unless you're down to the last scum and are sold on everyone else being town.
100%
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I don't want you to think I thought that before, I didn't pick up at all on his breadrumbing or doctor talk. But, it seems highly likely and logical.
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EPT
