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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Town should be trying to find scum reasons to lynch (over policy) and that's what he's doing. You are contesting in your first point that he should be going for lurkers. He is not posting much but he's still prioritising what he feels is scum. He doesn't know your meta...fine, but where are the flaws in his methods? | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 02:15 LightningStrike wrote: He also seem to just tunnel on 1 target at a time when he feels like would "Good lynches" but however if you look they are the easiest mislynches in this game 1st he unexplainly swap his vote to TheWarWaffle and didn't say a thing on why he did. He went back to me then later on swap to Celestial a little bit later after rsoultin said she would go for a Celeistal wagon and since almost half the game is town reading rsoultin but seeing as the wagon on me wouldn't grow so he on to Celestial which btw he didn't scum read until his case on him. That's all I got for the case but if you finding other edivence on him being scum let me know right away. Wait, wait, wait. Hold the damn press. On January 07 2015 09:03 kitaman27 wrote: Day 1 Final Vote Count jarjarbinks (1): LightningStrike (2): ExO_, Gumdrop (0): TheWarWaffle (5): rsoultin, LightningStrike, Silverarte, Tubesock, The Shining Tubesock (0): ExO_ (1): Gumdrop, The Shining (3): Half the Sky, Trfel, jarjarbinks TheWarWaffle has been lynched. Unless the mods screwed up, ExO NEVER voted WarWaffle. What are you talking about? | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 02:42 LightningStrike wrote: I wasn't conteswting he should go to lurkers I said he was disreguarding my lurker reads and said I was town reading everyone where I said that the lurkers I need more posts from them to figure out their alignment -_- Okay, that is fair, and I did ask you that question. But this...I mean COME ON. On January 10 2015 02:15 LightningStrike wrote: He also seem to just tunnel on 1 target at a time when he feels like would "Good lynches" but however if you look they are the easiest mislynches in this game 1st he unexplainly swap his vote to TheWarWaffle and didn't say a thing on why he did. He went back to me then later on swap to Celestial a little bit later after rsoultin said she would go for a Celeistal wagon and since almost half the game is town reading rsoultin but seeing as the wagon on me wouldn't grow so he on to Celestial which btw he didn't scum read until his case on him. That's all I got for the case but if you finding other edivence on him being scum let me know right away. On January 10 2015 02:44 LightningStrike wrote: In his filter at least he said he didn't mind a lynch on to TheWarWaffle. I thought saw something where he explained his thoughts on TheWarWaffle after the lynch. Look, I dove into his filter. This is absolutely ridiculous. I went through his filter. Page 2. He discusses bizarre reads prior to lynch why he's scumreading WW. He even challenges Trfel on why he's a scum lynch and not a policy lynch. Why are you saying he's "unexplainly" swapping his vote. And he didn't even vote WarWaffle in the end. He said he didn't mind a lynch but felt you were the best candidate. So he kept his vote on you. This reeks of you distorting the facts. I'm sorry, this isn't personal, but if this isn't the most clear evidence you aren't scum, I don't know what is. And if for some reason you are not scum, I think Tubesock is going to have some competition post-game as to who will wind up with the biggest ban from TL with the post-game commentary. ##vote LightningStrike | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
If there are any questions, please post away. I feel that all had on LS was strong enough, and what he said this afternoon was just too much to ignore, like he was stretching the facts to try and get ExO killed. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
That said, I'm absolutely horrified at this lynch. Rasputin, to answer your question regarding LS, you are correct in a sense that no he doesn't have developed reads but that's when you ask questions and/or make statements on reads. And that's where I felt I was running into problems, but I gave him the BOTD through D1 until the blue issue and the mention that he was tunnelled. Today I asked him about the blue issue and this is what he said: On January 10 2015 00:41 LightningStrike wrote: 2. I didn't believe the soft blue claim because if I was scum I would Soft Claim blue myself although I didn't in Student Mafia IV but that was because both of the Blue roles were killed in the first 36 hours of the game so I couldn't soft claim blue in that game. Generally speaking scum would soft claim blue more likely than a town that what the impression I gotten from looking at other games. I saw that and I'd be thinking just the opposite especially with more experience. Still, I read his case and asked questions, but when I saw he was talking about ExO switching to WW with no explanation, I checked the votes and ExO's filter and that clearly wasn't true. LS even said in his second comment that it was in Exo's filter, and doing that and coming up with a different result, it was another red flag to me. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 09:18 ExO_ wrote: There is something. I was debating whether or not to say this in public, but Celestial should die tonight right? Except mafia may leave him alive then push a lynch on him the next day for not dying. I disagree with this (bolded words) because scum always want to maximise their shot for an NK. The medic by default cuts into that by 1/x, x being the current nr of players. In TL games, medics cannot save themselves. Therefore, a shot on claimed medic will be 100%. Blues are a larger threat to scum getting closer to late game. Up to lynch, there has been no counterclaim. Therefore, regardless of setup, if Celestial lives tonight, he goes tomorrow, end of, simple as. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 16:17 Tubesock wrote: How important is it for mafia to kill the doc if they have a roleblocker? I don't know the validity of the no vet & doc idea, but I don't really care either. It's safer to play it in the most conservative way I think. What is our risk if we don't lynch Celestial Day 3? We won't listen to a word he says. He wastes a roleblock night action every night or mafia risks a save. If you're in MYLO/LYLO you should go for whoever you are most sure of to be scum, why take a shot at someone you aren't as sure of? That's the risk right there. The medic gains information every night through their saves, so faced with a decision, scum should be killing him particularly getting closer to lylo. I mentioned before that they have the most hard info through their actions. Regardless, Celestial had good reason to be scumread pre-claim. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 16:27 Tubesock wrote: Horrified at what lynch? The LightningStrike one? Or you mean the ExO one? Horrified that LS flipped town. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 07 2015 05:20 ExO_ wrote: It gets a lot harder then. If he is mafia (as I suspect) then he'll have nothing to lose by claiming a blue role. It'll depend on if he claims blue, and what specific blue role he claims. I won't ignore it, but will make a decision when I see what he says. On January 07 2015 05:23 LightningStrike wrote: Because ExO and Tube pretty much asked me to claim. On January 07 2015 05:25 Tubesock wrote: It's moot now. He claimed VT so we lynch him now at worst we lynch a vt. I think he's 4th on my list though. I really really want WarWaffle to come back. On January 07 2015 05:27 Tubesock wrote: No. You were getting heat and then softclaimed. Noone asked you to claim. My questions were to avoid that stupid situation where you claimed cop and shenanies happened and you as cop was miss lynched day 1. When you said "I will claim if I have to" is a fucking claim. You did it then, no one asked you to. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 09 2015 17:03 jarjarbinks wrote: 27% (3/10 +/- 3%) is the lowest % you can have. I'm attaching mini-normal % increases based on how the dead voted and giving myself a 3% buffer for on my opinions of their play so far. 1. LS- 46%. 14% increase based on dead votes and a 2% increase based on today's play and the day 1 claim. I still sympathize with LS, but that's why I'm using equations over my feelings. One of the cases I saw with LS in also had everyone on LS's balls for almost the whole game (at least based off votes). 2. Shining- 39%. 9% increase based on dead votes. 0% on my opinions of the 2 days play. 3. Tube Sock- 38%. 11% increase based on dead votes. 3% decrease based on play. The early waffle vote on tube hurt tube a lot. I also wonder if waffle wasn't under pressure, if he would have kept the tube vote. But I have really liked tube's play today. I liked his theory, however flawed it was. [...] 5. Silverarte 33% [...] JJB, a few more questions on your equations and how you applied them. You scumread LS based on the (I assume?) VT claim. Did his post-lynch comments have any bearing on your rating? Shining question I asked before, but will ask again, he's since posted, and you're saying you have no alignment indicative information? You also have different increases based on dead votes, and from D1 voting, Shining, LS, Tube and Silver all voted Waffle. and you have Silver at a max 6% increase based on dead voting, Rasputin even less. You say you are using numbers, but you would think, when they all vote the same person, why are the percentages different (in bold)? | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 23:38 ExO_ wrote: Its gonna have to wait. my video card blew out last night. im up early this morning to buy a new one but until I get my machine fixed I wont really being paying attention here. Hopefully in a few hours itll be fixed and I can look over things. But fixing my machine takes priority over everything Fair play, that is a stinker. Thanks for the heads up. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 23:36 Half the Sky wrote: You also have different increases based on dead votes, and from D1 voting, Shining, LS, Tube and Silver all voted Waffle. and you have Silver at a max 6% increase based on dead voting, Rasputin even less. You say you are using numbers, but you would think, when they all vote the same person, why are the percentages different (in bold)? JJB in case you didn't understand my prior explanation, I'll try and talk in more maths related terms. One variable in coming up with your numbers is dead votes. Those five I mentioned voted the same D1 and as of the time you made that collective rating. So why are you assigning different numbers for what should be the same variable? Am I making sense either way? | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 01:05 rsoultin wrote: And I don't like an auto lynch in MYLO/LYLO. Flat out. If mafia has an RBer (and no we can't know for sure, just as we can't know for sure that there are 3 mafia, but if there are, one of each role makes sense) then it makes more sense to RB celestial and push an easy mislynch Day 3. I don't think looking at Celestial at all for a Day 3 lynch is worthwhile. Okay, Rasputin, now I see where you're coming from. Trying to think the mechanics through, if scum have a RB, and if Celestial is RBed and protects the same person scum went for, he has an additional defence because now he knows for sure he's been roleblocked. (The person he requested to protect has died.) Maybe I'm overthinking things but I'm trying to place why scum would allow that potential out for an uncounterclaimed medic they might try to target the next day. The medic gains more information and can give more information to the rest of the town. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 02:57 jarjarbinks wrote: I didn't explain my equations because they aren't very sound [...] I will still update them and apply them for this next round and hope for the best. But I will also do what I think is best. Fair play, JarJar, got it. That is a lot more clear now. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 03:15 rsoultin wrote: But unless celeste blocks a mafia nk (assuming he's a real doc) he knows nothing. And him being roleblocked, he knows nothing, cause who he tried to save has nothing to do with the roleblock. I'm not talking about blocking. I'm talking about the fact that if any medic requests a save on Joe Smith, and Joe Smith still dies, that he can deduce or infer that he has been roleblocked because his/her save obvious didn't go through. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 03:26 rsoultin wrote: And? Not trying to be rude, but if an NK doesn't go through, a scum false claim will just claim being roleblocked, too. Alright, I was overthinking this. Goodness this is difficult. Now looking back, the point on Celestial being an easy target is a lot more clear. That said, back to focusing on day actions. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 03:50 rsoultin wrote: Even though LS' case wasn't strong, his read may not be wrong, on ExO or -Celestial-. It's hard to pin down, but I'm getting a funny feeling that ExO was probing the waters to see which lynches might gain momentum rather than actually scumhunting. That's reinforced by talking about WWs reads and arguing with Trfel while staying on LS... Alright, here's a way I can test what you said in the bolded. Double checked the vote count using timestamps when he talked about what you said... On January 07 2015 06:44 ExO_ wrote: Re-reading the case on WarWaffle, I think there is a lot of scum indications there, but for me it's based on his bizzare reads. He defends somebody like gumdrops in a way that makes no sense. Gumdrops is clearly inactive and not contributing a lot to the thread. He defends shining and jarjar. JarJar's post aren't anything like he makes them out to be, and shining is not the paragon of asking the correct questions. His post is so wrong that I would honestly believe he was jester. It's definitely scummy. It paints the 3 mafia as himself/JarJar/shining. But it does this so blatantly that it scares me. And then he hardly says anything about LS. I don't know. It does make me question whether or not the best lynch is LS. On January 07 2015 06:59 ExO_ wrote: I'm not sure I agree that it's a policy lynch. Go read his big read post. None of it makes any sense whatsoever. Its blatantly wrong about a lot of players thus far. Read it and then come back and say it's still just a policy lynch. On January 07 2015 07:09 ExO_ wrote: I'm very tempted to switch to waffle. But I still feel like my argument for Lightning Strike stands. I feel like I'll be okay with the WW lynch but I don't think I can switch my vote just yet. On January 07 2015 07:28 ExO_ wrote: trfel I don't appreciate you ignoring my question Now the timestamps: On January 07 2015 06:51 Tubesock wrote: Sorry, ##Unvote ##Vote: TheWarWaffle On January 07 2015 07:07 Trfel wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: The Shining On January 07 2015 08:40 The Shining wrote: ##Vote: ExO_ On January 07 2015 08:48 jarjarbinks wrote: ##Vote: The Shining On January 07 2015 08:58 The Shining wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: TheWarWaffle Tubesock was the 4th vote. Shining was vote #5. If you look at the timestamps closely (I'm sorry if it's a mess, otherwise go to the voting thread and check bot page 1 and top page 2) the majority of his exchange came between the 4th and the 5th vote. I went back to his filter and there lacks a quote where he says definitively that he will stay on LS. I don't want to take anything out of context but since you brought it up Rasputin, I figured this could be a way of testing what you are saying. If you don't think it's reliable, fine but this is probably the best method I can think of at the moment. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
First things first, GGs Rasputin. We are going to sort this shit out. Second, this is aimed at JarJar, I just realised on recapping, that you actually missed two of my previous questions regarding your equations. You did answer the part about the dead voting percentages, and I stand corrected on those, and I understand now what you are driving at. I look forward to seeing your revised ratings and the bases for those. But again, in case you missed (original inquiry on page 50): On January 11 2015 02:57 jarjarbinks wrote: JJB, a few more questions on your equations and how you applied them. You scumread LS based on the (I assume?) VT claim. Did his post-lynch comments have any bearing on your rating? Shining question I asked before, but will ask again, he's since posted, and you're saying you have no alignment indicative information? | ||
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