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TL Mafia LXIX: Carol Of The Bells - Page 6

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 12 2014 19:36 GMT
#1888
So yeah currently I'm mostly looking at Tubesock/FF for lynch. The extremely disturbing (probable) slip might just push it over to Tubesock being the better candidate.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 12 2014 19:41 GMT
#1889
On December 13 2014 04:35 sicklucker wrote:
Its interesting to note that if mafia has no rb they have all the incentive in the world to push ritoky hes already got alot of votes


Yeah and even if they have a RB'er they would most likely prefer not using it on ritoky. Who do you mean specifically though? I think HF is town and LS is probably too (his claim shenanigans seemed pretty genuine). HTS and rsoultin could be candidates, I guess.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 12 2014 19:45 GMT
#1891
If we apply Occam's razor on FF, he'd just be scum. So he'd definitely be a viable lynch as well.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 12 2014 19:50 GMT
#1893
On December 13 2014 04:44 Half the Sky wrote:
Xatalos, I looked over your explanation:

Show nested quote +
On December 13 2014 04:00 Xatalos wrote:
2) If he's town, there are two plausible scenarios. Either he's A) fakeclaiming having opened the present and actually planning to pass it on while eating a KP/RB or B) actually opened the present and still wanting to eat a KP/RB. Option A seems to make much more sense as town, but naturally he wouldn't want to admit that now if possible. Option B is a bit stupid, since he could get all the benefits of option B without actually wasting the present with option A, but I don't think it's all that implausible either. As a solo town player he wouldn't have the scumteam coaching him and his judgment may have been faulty. That at least seems more likely than him doing this play as scum with a whole team coaching him.....


I'm thinking the mechanics through with the present, do you really think a scumteam would believe what he had or would they just try and continue to rolehunt?

Also I'm just trying to understand why any town would claim any present period (and especially what Ritoky has claimed) when scum have the advantage in KP (across all nights, not just the one night the present is used) and I would imagine the proportion of blue roles to VTs/named VTs is still small.

Absolutely I agree Tube is scum and he needs to go at this point, but I think a few of us were worried about that extra KP.
I just want to make sure I'm understanding this correctly.


I'm not sure what you mean in the first paragraph?

The most sensible explanation (out of all the possible explanations) for ritoky's claim is that he's fakeclaiming it as town to eat a kill/RB. The second most sensible explanation seems to be that he actually opened it and revealed it as town (same approach as the first explanation but with the drawback of wasting the present so it's pretty stupid). I think the least likely explanation is that he's scum and the scumteam somehow thought this was a great plan.... *facepalm*
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 12 2014 19:56 GMT
#1894
I just can't see the value in that play for the scumteam considering all the potential risks and the scrutiny that'd be directed at ritoky (who wasn't looking all that great to begin with).
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 12 2014 20:03 GMT
#1897
On December 13 2014 04:58 Half the Sky wrote:
Alright, I see what you are saying now. First paragraph, I mainly was trying to think of him doing this from both sides
(town and scum) and how the other side would react. But you are right, scum have a lot less to gain and a lot more to lose. It is possible he could have made an honest mistake with claiming too.

Since Tubesock is the most likely scum given the slip, I'll go ahead and change my vote. I've had FF scumlisted for awhile given the inconsistencies, not answering the questions (as I cited before) and continued apathy, but Tube is definitely the better lynch at this point. He still hasn't explained that post.


I think the claim was definitely a mistake UNLESS he's fakeclaiming to have opened it as town, but it's more likely that he'd make a big blunder as town than as scum (with several other players discussing strategy with him).
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 12 2014 20:06 GMT
#1899
On December 13 2014 05:01 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2014 09:12 Fecalfeast wrote:
On December 09 2014 09:07 Alakaslam wrote:
On December 09 2014 09:03 Fecalfeast wrote:
On December 09 2014 08:59 Alakaslam wrote:
Calvin, Calvin, calvin.

Boobs and full length high heels and Jesus was born in summer

Constant stream of nothing from you after already saying you're doing it for WIFOM. You'll run out of posts very soon at this rate.

Why are you fishing for marley specifically?

Thou'rt thick

あなたは既にルールを破って、リングの外に辞任した。なぜあなたはまだ戦うためにしようとしている

I thought being thick was a prerequisite for sumo.

"You are already breaking the rules , resigned to the outside of the ring . Why are trying to order you still fight"

No rules were established beforehand but if you don't want to fite I wont force you.

I was about to comment on the 27NB post but HF beat me to it. Her 'easy scum read' is in her scum pile because only scum is looking for easy scum reads...


One interesting bit I find in retrospect is this one. He wanted to talk about the 27nb stuff apparently and when catching up with his comment he seems to rehearse what HF said but without taking any opinion on it. 27nb also doesn't appear in his further reasoning. As shown here:

Show nested quote +
On December 09 2014 10:12 Fecalfeast wrote:
On December 09 2014 10:07 GlowingBear wrote:
Ok uhm we can lynch Templar because he is scum
We can lynch bats because he is scum
We can lynch kita because where the fuck is he
We can lynch sicklucker because he is reading but not interacting kthxbai

I'd lynch templar because his posts, while long, are full of more fluff than slam's.
idk who kita is but it's still early so give him a break
I'd lynch sicklucker because I wanted to plynch him last game and he was scum.


This reply, in context, is meant to imitate what GB wrote, not really sure if trolling. I'll assume he isn't for now. I really hate posts like these cause they are so ambiguous. It's the sort of stuff people can use to say "but look I have made reads", or if you question their validity they can say "nah man I was just joking as a reply" as they see fit in a specific moment. Needs clearing up from FF.

______________________

Another matter is how he starts the game going after Alakaslam in a dramatic sumo-suit fashion. Again ambiguous so hard to tell if he's joking or serious, assuming serious again, then this later post of his doesn't make much sense:

Show nested quote +
On December 09 2014 08:47 Fecalfeast wrote:
On December 09 2014 08:46 Damdred wrote:
On December 09 2014 08:44 Fecalfeast wrote:
On December 09 2014 08:42 Alakaslam wrote:
Yes they come with great influence but even the sibling is inconvenienced by such things. The awkward intensifies to the sick; the lulz come to those who know

But ultimately my sis decided she would not trade my GF of Christmas past, (B. Friend of hers, I know slam so creepy whatever) because ultimately 100% men take some influence by this whereas legs, butthijole, arms be like 20, 45, 3; but of course ppl vary

Btw who scumreads me yet for wasting posts being vulgar? If no one is shocked by this chile then he DINNAE care anymore because he don't know why it all matters

For shame if there is naebody to FITE

Grab the sumo suits, I'm down for a rumble.

Why are you wasting posts trying to get people to talk about you wasting posts?



Why with everything going on do you not comment on it and instead only post about a joke and focus on fighting slam?

Developing a read on slam seems like something nobody can reliably do so I may as well try


Show nested quote +
On December 09 2014 10:20 Fecalfeast wrote:
On December 09 2014 10:14 ritoky wrote:
On December 09 2014 10:12 Fecalfeast wrote:
On December 09 2014 10:07 GlowingBear wrote:
Ok uhm we can lynch Templar because he is scum
We can lynch bats because he is scum
We can lynch kita because where the fuck is he
We can lynch sicklucker because he is reading but not interacting kthxbai

I'd lynch templar because his posts, while long, are full of more fluff than slam's.
idk who kita is but it's still early so give him a break
I'd lynch sicklucker because I wanted to plynch him last game and he was scum.


do you not like slam? please splain to me brochacho

I think slam seems the exact same in every game. Any tips for reading him?


So he's telling us he can't read Slam but still tries to at the start of the game. Obviously a futile effort. I have the same opinion about reading Slam and my solution to it is to ignore his posts until it really becomes a pressing matter to decide on him. Yet he tries it at the start of the game but sees 27nb as a secondary issue he barely comments on.

As of now I'd lynch this guy for making so little sense and talking about stuff that should be irrelevant to him (Alakaslam), and when he pretends it's relevant (comment on 27nb without ever further elaborating something on her) it really isn't. Overall his play is a pain to read and I have a hard time imagining him as town.


Yeah. Perhaps the most scummy single post from him, I think, was where he claimed credit for his 27nb vote even though it was just a late sheep/ninjavote.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 12 2014 20:10 GMT
#1901
On December 13 2014 05:04 sicklucker wrote:
The only scenario is if they thought ritoky was going to get lynched and want to use his present to kill a town. He was far from a for sure thing but he claimed too early like I would expect mafia to wait till their about to get voted out to claim present.

Also who would have gave him a present anyway. Did gb claim to? I find it odd no third player claimed to have a present to give its so townie to say this only me and gb did. That means to me its probably in mafia hands so claiming he has it makes some sense. Expect another present claim when were about to lynch a mafia because I think they have one in there possession. regardless if its ritokys or not.


Yeah he claimed to give the present to ritoky. It's possible that the remaining present is in scum hands. That'd reduce the risk of counter-claim a bit, but still only to 50/50 since they couldn't know that the other present was on its way to Damdred to disappear from the game. So it's still 50/50 chance of probably getting insta-lynched for... what exactly? He could just have opened it in secret and then used it as scum.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 12 2014 20:17 GMT
#1905
On December 13 2014 05:14 sicklucker wrote:
Na I dont think mafia would have killed dandred last night so I think they know its gone. It looks like were lucky mafia has the seer present and not the kp. Can you imagine if mafia has 4kp tonight?


I think it'd be gone regardless of how Damdred died since it was sent to him when he died? But that only happened after ritoky claimed to open it so he couldn't have known that it might be relatively safe to do so if the scumteam had the remaining present.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 12 2014 20:21 GMT
#1908
Well the more likely scenario seems to be Mafia RB'ing him and the bullet being destroyed. If Mafia has the RB'er and he really opened it. In case Mafia has no RB'er, we should probably order ritoky to shoot some likely scum of our choosing at night.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 12 2014 20:22 GMT
#1910
On December 13 2014 05:21 Half the Sky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 13 2014 05:17 sicklucker wrote:
also its kind of nice that ritoky claimed kp. If he ever uses it we should know. And then we get a 1for1 mafia trade. More reason not to vote him out


I don't know if we have a vigilante (I can't tell if Kush was killed by vig or Marley??), but if we're sure FF is scum, and we have the extra kp, we should probably use it on FF.


Not a bad idea.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 12 2014 20:25 GMT
#1912
On December 13 2014 05:20 sicklucker wrote:
Na like im pretty sure ritokys town. And theres zero reason to ever kill him unless his kp can potentially end the game for mafia. I kinda wanna look at hf.


Hm. I think he's looked decent enough. Vivax and you seem more likely town though, and maybe LS. Definitely if he's alive in 1-2 days it might be time to worry.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 12 2014 20:36 GMT
#1917
Oh yeah the Kush thing. At the time I thought Kush was scum/anti-town town trolling about the role. What's most mind-boggling is that he actually was Scrooge and cost us a significant portion of our power for his stupidity.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 12 2014 20:55 GMT
#1927
Hmmm. It's true that HF hasn't really talked about some relevant things. Could be a bit detached for being scum, perhaps? I don't think he's a lynch for today regardless. He's contributed more than almost anyone in the game.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 12 2014 21:03 GMT
#1929
On December 13 2014 03:08 batsnacks wrote:
I hate you all

##vote: Half the Sky


What are you doing batsnacks?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 13 2014 12:11 GMT
#2178
Well, I think Fecalfeast needs to go before LYLO anyway since he's either scum or making no effort to further town's win condition (plus slightly pushing Mafia objectives such as claiming credit for basically nothing). It'd be probably ideal if he was Vig shot next night, but a FF lynch wouldn't be half bad.

Tubesock's contributions have gotten gradually worse and they were never good to begin with. Then there's the (likely) slip and he hasn't really done anything lately. I think he's the lynch with the best chances of hitting scum right now.

Not that sold on Trfel being Mafia, really. He's been inactive, yes, but so have many others. His posts also seem to show that he's thinking something although I'd like to see his focus shift to scumhunting (even if the reads might not be perfect, the point is to discuss reads and develop them, not just to announce the final scumteam at some point). Verdict: wait and see.

Vivax, I somewhat agree with Oats' post. It's not really good to focus too much on the NK analysis since we don't know what killed who and besides, kita only made his readpost right at the deadline when the NK's were definitely already decided. More likely he was killed for being a veteran player. Well, I agree that Oats is being really lazy (judging FF by his post count LOL) so there might be a point in the fact that he's putting in little effort like FF. So I don't see a reason to cry over him being lynched/shot so far.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 13 2014 12:15 GMT
#2179
On December 13 2014 21:00 Tubesock wrote:
GlowingBear. You had a nice post there, but then what happened man?? I'm holding my breath for your 2nd installment. Oh, sorry, too drunk to do it.

FecalFeast's lynch doesn't fit in my current worldview. Yeah, he's done a lot of scum things but him flipping mafia while great doesn't help me find his mates. Well, to be honest I haven't gone in with the zealousness I did with my 4 disclosed (In case Sicklucker forgot they are: The_Templar, KelsierSC, Sicklucker, GlowingBear). I have a 5th but I need the right person to flip and sadly that isn't Fecal.

To me HolyFire's really only drove the NinjaBunny wagon which we all were on and his investigating Ritoky pretty hard. He's hunting at least. Ritoky to me is very town. I read him today a bit and really the only thing I didn't really like is he likes good jokes when talking in the beginning. Yeah, so I have basically nothing on him.

Show nested quote +
On December 13 2014 14:35 Alakaslam wrote:

Hijole I see you now.

without google I wouldn't know a citation from a jet stream, a Lear from a Cessna.

However I do know what AOPA is


You also post quickly you think it's an irreparable post. Which to me made me think of the Key & Peele Text Confusion skit specifically. I find it hilarious and very applicable to the game of Mafia. I haven't figured out how to embed it so you'll have to google, but it will be the first return.

Is he thinking he DID make an unexplainable error or is he testing and reading me? Haha, it's funny because it's both. You asked me to not remind you about flying so I'm going to spoiler the rest.

+ Show Spoiler +
Cessna makes Citations, there are Jetstream aircraft (Jetstream 31), jet streams are often talked about on the weather channel, and a Learjet is a jet like a Cessna Citation but if you're talking small airplanes to the general public they refer to them as Cessna's. They mean the C172, or C206 Stationair, they don't know they also include the $25 million Citation X a sexy sexy and I think still the FASTEST business jet in production. Although the new Gulfstream 650 and 850 are in contention.

I've been a member of AOPA since 1993. I don't read their magazine very often generally just the turbine pilot section or an article on an old antique bird. I gifted my free subscription of Flight Training Magazine to a couple students for a bit. I only really read Aviation Week & Space anymore. Flying, Sport Pilot, Airline, and many of those other magazines tend to repeat themselves so I only skim them at best and haven't opened one in over a decade.


Nice that you decided to actually post now. Could you try to convince us of your reads? I don't really agree with any of them except *maybe* Templar/GB but I don't see why they'd be priority targets now.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 13 2014 12:21 GMT
#2180
On December 13 2014 16:10 Oatsmaster wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 13 2014 15:38 Vivax wrote:
On December 13 2014 15:36 Oatsmaster wrote:
How is nk analysis even relevant?

Its straight up speculation. Look at how many other reads the dead people have.

Fecal has more posts than like 50% of the game.

Come on Vivax/hf other bad people.


This post looks so mafia to me right now.

Do I care?
no.

Trefel or Froggy is it today.
Actually do I prefer trefel?
Yes yes i do.

##unvote
##vote Trefel



Could you explain why you want to lynch him?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 13 2014 12:27 GMT
#2181
Hm, Froggy. Not looking that good but he did notice Tube's slip so if Tube is scum, Froggy is probably not.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 13 2014 12:43 GMT
#2184
On December 13 2014 21:35 Oatsmaster wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 13 2014 21:21 Xatalos wrote:
On December 13 2014 16:10 Oatsmaster wrote:
On December 13 2014 15:38 Vivax wrote:
On December 13 2014 15:36 Oatsmaster wrote:
How is nk analysis even relevant?

Its straight up speculation. Look at how many other reads the dead people have.

Fecal has more posts than like 50% of the game.

Come on Vivax/hf other bad people.


This post looks so mafia to me right now.

Do I care?
no.

Trefel or Froggy is it today.
Actually do I prefer trefel?
Yes yes i do.

##unvote
##vote Trefel



Could you explain why you want to lynch him?

changed my mind.
But then he stopped.

Why do people do this man.


What does this mean?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
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