EPTKetchup I explained one possibility for the LT kill. Lack of more kills means they probably have poisoner or something. I doubt they have more than 1 nightly KP. Trust me N2 we'll lose like 3 people, that's how these games go.
[I] TLLOLOTGDTM - Page 13
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WaveofShadow
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Ketchup I explained one possibility for the LT kill. Lack of more kills means they probably have poisoner or something. I doubt they have more than 1 nightly KP. Trust me N2 we'll lose like 3 people, that's how these games go. | ||
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lol soniv and of course you're willing to bury the hatchet, 'cause it's my hatchet and it would be aimed at your head if not for dis gai over here The fun part is if Jeff flips scum you look eeeeeeven worse (though I suppose I do too for dropping the wagon initially lolol) | ||
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On October 14 2014 10:10 Alzadar wrote: I'm prepared to vote for Jeff, but I want to hear one thing from Wave: If you were so sure MoonBear was Town, and you've also been suspicious of Jeff the entire game, why did you essentially throw away your vote on Asmodeus instead of voting for Jeff, when there was a very real chance Jeff could be lynched instead of MoonBear? On October 13 2014 08:32 WaveofShadow wrote: Like why is it so quiet with 30min to go? This looks like scum is fairly content with how things are going. I believe Jeff led the votes still at this point. Nope, just looked, I simply fucked up here and got swayed by his return post---the town/town business I was talking about was the LT/MB stuff earlier. I should have switched back to Jeff but I lost confidence. | ||
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Now I'm kind of mad at myself, though I can't say for certain I would have been able to get enough people to switch back to Jeff even if I had been confident enough. | ||
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It's about 1:4 Let's see how many of those are specifically aimed at me to make me mad: 15 out of <60 which is like 1/4 of your total posts. Like I said earlier, if you're not helping the town you're against it. And your 'unfortunate timing' is pretty horseshit too because I could see you posting in OT in between. | ||
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On October 14 2014 10:29 GhandiEAGLE wrote: Now You're assuming me blaming you at all is a post attempting to make you mad. This was the case in the first 24 hours. This was not the case after that. "If youre not helping town youre against it." And with that attitude you will have lost four townies before even getting on the right track. Don't be an idiot, we need a good lynch tonight. My last post in OT before my read post in Maf thread was over 5 hours ago. And they were throwaway posts I was able to add in between classes. I have no idea how that reflects on my circumstances. You're clearly trying to go for my throat here, but you also ignored my question while in 5 minutes being the first to respond to LT's death. It was immediately with a vote for me, quick and dry. It was also a massive flip from who you were suspecting earlier. I don't know how this isn't completely suspicious to some people, but frankly Wave is playing you guys. Maybe not because he's scum, but he's wrong and posting inconsistent things combined with claims that aren't actually supported. Oh and he either ignores all my questions, or sweeps them aside in order to keep the target pointed on me. lol it's not a massive flip at all. Had you on my shit list in my last reads post, I just decided to change up my priorities a little bit. What questions have I ignored of yours exactly? | ||
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I'll be completely honest with everyone in this thread right now. I should be at the top of everyone's town lists right under 6ah. There is no fucking way in hell based on sheer post volume alone I could possibly be scum, but the content within is also a dead giveaway. It is damn near IMPOSSIBLE for a scum member to have the largest filter in a game (I don't think it's EVER happened on TL Mafia) never mind a filter that is 2-2.5x the size of the next person. I don't expect anyone in the game to absolve me based on the above even though you should, but maybe you'll remember it for future reference. | ||
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Your attempt to discredit me is bad and you should feel bad. | ||
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If people decide for whatever reason Jeff should not be the lynch I'm willing to hear thoughts on Soniv/Asmo as well. | ||
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On October 14 2014 11:37 Cixah wrote: Guilty of what ghandi? I was just mid confirmed to be town. I've always been town facing yet you've done nothing relevant to the game at all. Here is what I think happened at night. 1) the scum do not have a role blocker. If they did, it is likely it would have been used on me in order to prevent the mod confirm from going out giving them a free mislynch on day 2. 2) I think the Vigi shot LT. The posts at he posts at the start if day 2 give me that feeling based in the remorseful ness of a few players. 3) I think the scum used their shot in Alaric in hopes of the protect not being there. 4) Cop checked soniv or ghandi. We'll have to wait and see but one of these two turned up red. After all that, Coma, owb and Alaric need to post and they need to post now. Another word of advice to newer players. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KISS_principle Put simply the most likely scenario is by far the simplest. LT was shot by scum. I don't think innocent child can even BE roleblocked. No sense in speculating on cop checks or medic saves if we even have them. | ||
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WARNING: LONG This post may be useful to read, but it's also helping me get my own thoughts in order so while I would suggest reading it in its entirety, I can sum it up later on. On October 14 2014 11:59 Requizen wrote: LT was killed by scum. Either his reads were good or they did it to screw with people. Neither of those can be determined at this time, so game continues as normal, for me it's just D1 again. Little if any information was gleaned - MB was killed by a mob half for being inactive half for posting nonsense. LT was killed by scum for indeterminate reasons. This is not true. We learn a great deal from voting patterns. (And as far as LT goes I believe scum were afraid of protection on higher priority targets, but that's just speculation) Let's start with a short example. On October 13 2014 00:12 ComaDose wrote: ugh hmmm im not sure what to do. ##vote GhandiEAGLE sorry jeff This leads me to believe that it is highly unlikely that Coma and Jeff are scum together. Coma wasn't around at all and wouldn't even necessarily BE around for the lynch---to drop a vote on your scum-mate and risk him being lynched for it is either shit tier play or really ballsy (and possibly team-angering solo scumplay. Being coma's first there is no way this is what he did). Not only did he just drop a vote on Jeff before the wagon really got going, but there was NOBODY ELSE on Jeff at the time. Now moving onto the MB crew. I'm going to analyze the biggest wagons of the day to see if anything interesting pops up. On October 12 2014 05:42 jcarlsoniv wrote: y'know what? fuck it ##vote: MoonBear You can, in fact, continue on the "he said, she said", that's how this game works. And y'know what you've said? Nothing. But you, more than any of the others who've done the same, come off as faux-contribution. Moreso than Alzadar. Asking about cops, trying to discern the setup, having 0 conclusions. THE BEAR'S BLOOD WILL DRAIN RED + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://www.brendazguiberson.com/images/books/moonbear-b.jpg) Here's the first vote. Basically takes my reasoning for finding him scummy and uses it. Absolutely nothing wrong with that; he took a step that I wasn't sure I was ready to take at the time. On October 12 2014 18:56 Lord Tolkien wrote: Right. It's no longer yesterday, and town clearly needs to be saved from drowning. So. Good thing I don't put in effort until the second half of D1. Town Hero Mode ACTIVATE Confirmed Town Swaglord Tolkien: The towniest of towns. Anyone who wants to lynch him is the scummiest of scums. 6ah: Random early Innocent Child claim. Confirmed town until D2: if no innocent child post, clearly scum or anti-town. So until that unlikely scenario, JOIN ME 6er in confirmed town glory. Not Quite Confirmed Town, maybe a nice shade of minty green: NOT ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK D1 Sonib: Equally frustrated by the "lel I'm VT" and "lel I'm nub" trend in this thread. Wav: "let's lynch the guy with the longest filter! HAHA! Best play NA!" Additionally, I see no point in lynching any "vets" D1 when they have actual filters to read. UNLIKE SOME PEOPLE COUGH COUGH HACK HACK GAG GAG. These are no lyncherino until later on. Besides, they'll probably be shot by mafia if they're town anyways, as I highly doubt a non-Sonib/Wav/me mafia would try to pull an epic WIFOM attempt and try to leave them alive for LYLO + Show Spoiler + (note, I tried to do this in my scum game [keeping the vet alive for LYLO for an easy mislynch], but I'm confirmed town here [also it got ruined by a next-to-last day cop claim ruining my lynching/shooting pattern]) mordek: I like him. Him response to the 6ah random early Innocent Child claim is townie to me. I want him to be more decisive with his reads on other people, but I'm townpiling him for now. Also mordek, unvote 6ah right now. Alaric: Also sold on Alaric for now. Very pro-town set of posts, but also lacking decision for now. Perhaps nubishness. ketchup: Same as above: going the right direction. Null/scummy Alzadar: His filter is very forgettable for me. Outside of the attempted "how many games has everyone played" post (which is also grossly inaccurate). Doesn't mention me at all besides in response to my direct corrections to his errors, despite my first-half D1 being literally trundle. Seriously, anyone who wasn't considering me a viable D1 wagon is probably scum (or bad town who could also be axed if we don't find scum today) Old Jeff: trolling about as hard as I was, and that's an achievement given how hard I was trolling. Nulling him for now, actually despite everyone scumreading him. I think his behavior makes sense for D1 and is fine. But not townsided as yet. Asmo: Aggressiveness is not a scum tell lel. In fact, given this is TL mafia, it's usually the opposite (I've been listening to vets moan about how TL scum players just lurk and get killed because it boosts their win percentage by getting auto-town reads). In any event, scum DON'T want to be confrontational unless they're caught and need to defend themselves. Scum play tends to be more passive and "lurky", since the goal for scum is to survive. Also, overall find your post pretty meh, so still null. Most "towny" of this list, but w/e, not happy with that post. Either mafia newbs or scum, I Can't Tell MoonBear: Either his continuous attempts to discuss blue roles is a sign of newbishness, or a bald-faced (newbish) scum play. Can't tell which. Given this is a newbie game probably the former but eh. Also, MoonBear makes a gigantic post that can be summed up in like 5 short sentences. "Is Wave WIFOMing? I don't know. Host-Player WIFOM. Let me badger for roles and stuff again. Also I think Alzadar, sweglerd, and Req are weird." See MoonBear? Wasn't that simpler and easier to write? Req: He's flailing around the noob card so hard, I'm surprised his arms haven't fallen off. And spending his time saying "wagh I don't like that you guys are trying to play mafia wagh". I give free passes for that in newbie games, but you're overusing it so hard right now, it sounds like you're just scum trying to use it to excuse everything. Also: I said I'd kill JEFF out of principle. I said I'd kill Wave because vengeance for making me bald and because he was being uncharacteristically Un-Canadian when he tried to club Also: This is basically a live mafia level play that I would do. Hint: Storr ends up policy-lynching me D1 everytime I go "whatever, I'm town and screw you all, you'll see when I flip". Why? Because it's a terrible defense and you clearly don't care about the game (which is true everytime I do it in live: gotta watch dem smash and LoL games). As I carry myself much differently in forum and live mafia, I'd say lynch him for the attitude alone. Bunch-o Lurking Voyeurs OWB: Apparently lurking is his meta. Would lynch if only because it means he'll likely be useless in following days and will be harder to read with less posts. ComaDose: In a coma. Or drunk. Or both. Then again he just posted so... Also, about as bad as Req in pulling the "hi im new" card. Also, wat. My brain is all WOOSH. I cannot contain this illogic. Two people putting in effort to find scum doesn't mean they're working together. wat Anyways, NO MORE NOOB CLAIM PLOX. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/301748-a-general-guide-to-mafia read this instead of complaining (REQ...) I'd be pretty happy with a MoonBear wagon right about now. Otherwise a policy lynch of Req or a lurker would suffice. ##Vote MoonBear Next comes Tolkien's vote. This one is based on the rationale that he seems more like scum feigning newbiness than actually having no idea what to do. Decent assumption, but obviously wrong (this is why I said early game that using the noob card to read people always fucks with me). The timing of the vote comes directly before the wagon on himself begins to form. Because we've seen him flip but also due to circumstances, at this point we know the vote is not to save himself. Alz then votes Tolkien, stating his only issue with the vote is that Tolkien is currently on MB. On October 13 2014 02:21 AsmodeusXI wrote: Fair points. I don't like your trolly crap, but I'm pretty sure you're town. MB get back here and give me a reason not to kill you. In fact. ##Unvote ##Vote: MoonBear I'm more on this train than Alz at this point. Asmo is next. This vote looks real shitty because he's barely talked about MB at all (Alaric jumps on HIM for this and forces him to post further)---he then clarifies with a pretty decent post actually On October 13 2014 03:59 GhandiEAGLE wrote: Sticking with Moonbear because I feel bad about no-votes, but I'm not 100% convinced. ##Vote: Moonbear Now THIS vote is interesting. The votes are at 3-2 in favor of MB dying I believe at this point. Jeff offers barely any rationale to his vote but jumps on the strongest bandwagon at the time. Tolkien then jumps off, having re-evaluated his read. I then jump on Tolkien, mordek follows suit before I've posted my reasons as to why I'm not voting MB, and tolk switches to Asmo. TO make things slightly less confusing here's the next votecount: On October 13 2014 06:40 Dandel Ion wrote: Vote Count MoonBear (4): jcarlsoniv, Lord Tolkien (2): GhandiEAGLE (1): ComaDose (1): ketchup mordek (1): Lord Tolkien WaveofShadow (1): Cixah (0): Alzadar (0): jcarlsoniv (0): AsmodeusXI (0): Requizen (0): No-lynch (1): onlywonderboy Not voting (3): MoonBear, Cixah, WaveofShadow, Currently, MoonBear is set to be lynched. Day 1 ends in Remember that voting is mandatory. The wagon on Tolk is all but dead after Req switches off to me (permanently), Alaric re-evaluates his deal with Asmo, Tolk does the same. It seems like MB might be going down. Here Tolk and I have a fun little moment where we analyze the voters currently on MB and decide the wagon doesn't look good. Too small and there's a couple sketchballs on it and other people have votes all over the place. We start talking about lurker lynch and I suggest Jeff, and vote him. On October 13 2014 07:05 ketchup wrote: Why does a ghandi bandwagon make more sense than comadose? Especially when comadose is already on the Ghandi bandwagon? Some resistance from ketchup. Particularly interesting if Jeff flips red, as this would probably clear coma too, meaning ketchup was pushing a mislynch here. This is all monster speculation here so best if that's dropped for now. Not 15 min after I vote Jeff and Tolkien says he'll probably jump on as well, this happens. (also a little wish-wash from Req where he agrees that Jeff is bad but says he's njot scum even though he thinks he should die) On October 13 2014 07:11 GhandiEAGLE wrote: What I cant be watching a Seahawks game? Geez tough crowd I'll talk more when it's over THEN the modkill discussion begins. The timing of this is interesting. Ketchup suggests we all move our votes to MB, not knowing if he will come back or not (at this point he assumes he doesn't.) The scum motivation for this? We waste our votes. More interestingly however is the fact that states it's because he doesn't want to lose two townies, which on it's own makes sense from a town perspective, but consider the fact that a rapid Jeff wagon was forming. This could have been a way to keep the mislynch alive and save a potential teammate. This is all pre-flip association and can't be taken at face value...yet. I just want to get it out there because I think we need to flip Jeff today. ANywa back to votes. LT and I both dislike the idea of throwing a vote away; we want to lynch scum and risk the doubletown loss (I later realize there'd be no way MB gets modkilled---even if he didn't show up you almost always get a warning first for not voting...plus he's the equivalent of a newbie so it'd be kinda shit hosting of Dandel but whatevs). Soniv however agrees with ketchup On October 13 2014 07:26 jcarlsoniv wrote: actually, i'll do it now ##unvote On October 13 2014 07:31 AsmodeusXI wrote: This sucks. I don't want to lynch a townie, but in lieu of a better argument for WHO to lynch (even if that argument is in the form of an RNG function... though I'm not in favor of that on principle) I gotta stick to my guns. MB's showed no evidence he's town and provided no good reasoning or opinions for anyone else. What he has done is post a bunch of weird, unclear stuff. That smells like scum. This post is fucking terrible in context because he doesn't even address the modkill aspect of what's happening with the voting right now, just that he's gotta 'stick to his guns' even if MB is town? Asmo plz. At the very least the others made that excuse AFTER the lynch. Back to votes: MB switches for self-preservation, LT switches. Then this: On October 13 2014 07:39 ketchup wrote: You aren't a mod, stop trying to dictate how this game goes. Until a mod comes out and tells me this isn't allowed, I will definitely keep posting about it. The mod kill discussion was 100% legit because of this random ass move to jump on the ghandieagle bandwagon started by you, and followed by Tolkien. This moonbear jump on ghandieagle bandwagon is hilarious. ##Vote: MoonBear Rather than stick to his own guns on lurkers (Coma) he specifically votes MB to spite the Jeff wagon. Asmo flip flops a couple times going from Jeff back to MB after they each posted. I switch and vote MB after being swayed by Jeff. THEN soniv revotes after everyone else has finished their shit, I vote Asmo, 6ah drops the hammer on MB and that's all she wrote. And looking back at it now even if I had switched onto Jeff and convinced 6ah it would have been 5/5 and MB still would have been lynched so I don't feel QUITE as bad. I think everyone should re-read LT's filter because stuff that I was questioning him for even at that time---now you can really see the town motivation shining through, and the pushback against what he was trying to do. Ketchup is a huge culprit in terms of the voting shenannies that happened around that time. I've given him a townread for a long time, but I've shown the scum motivations for what he tried to do and his switch onto MB. I'm not ready to change my read of him yet but I think people should look into it and comment and let me know what they see. Another important thing to note about voting patterns is scum like to spread themselves out. It doesn't normally happen that all scum pile on to one target trying to get him mislynched so I may have to do some re-evaluation as basically everyone I've named as possible scum was on MB at the end of the day. If I'm right on Jeff then I don't think both Asmo and Soniv can be scum, and even then I don't know if ketchup and one of those two can be scum either. /ramble over [big][b]TL;DR We learn a great deal from voting patterns---we'll learn even more and be able to make some associations if we lynch Jeff today, who already looks pretty damn shitty. | ||
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Soniv/Jeff/Asmo/mordek/alz/maybe coma/MAYBE alaric In the end it always comes down to the same people for me. I think we lynch into the 5 red colours I posted earlier we probably win, it's all a matter of in which order. | ||
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Problem is I don't see soniv's disinterest around yesterday's lynch, for example, or yours for most of the first 72h of this game to be anywhere near what I'd expect. I didn't include OWB for example and his filter is tiny, because he posts of his own accord when he can and genuinely looks like he's trying to figure out the game/ For the most part you only do so when forced to. | ||
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Put it this way...does anybody have a TOWNread on the guy right now? I see a lot of well...hm...WAve/soniv i dunno... But the fact remains nobody is prepared to blatantly state he is town and some people wont state much of anything. Wonder why that is. I think there is a possibility of Jeff flipping town, and it can wait so long as we're lynching into this list. ##unvote ##vote: jcarlsoniv | ||
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 ), and I think that spot may have previously been taken up my Alaric, who has since been kicked out. | ||
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On October 14 2014 14:07 ketchup wrote: I did say I would lay off Wave, but there are a few possibilities here that work. Wave can easily be 3p. Fair, but I think that needs to be dropped for now. We don't even know if we have poisoner yet (because lets be fair, if either of us is survivor then we're playing protown so it doesnt matter) and won't have any idea of that until we see the death count tomorrow night (and even then it could be iffy). | ||
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