I'm not sure which one of you is town, but I'm almost certain mafia will leave me alive and push lynch vote on me tomorrow. I'm not scum but I don't know how I could convince anybody at this point since everything I'm saying is turning up wrong.

I can't believe we only had a doctor and a 1-shot vigi against a roleblocker and a cop

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 07 2014 22:06 GMT

#2550

On July 08 2014 07:00 Vivax wrote:
You could start by explaining why your lurk all day claiming your reads are weak but show up at the last second to save a mafia roleblocker.

you'll note I tried to vote OO much earlier but it didn't count because of format (HF noted as such in one of his posts). So I just fixed the format so my initial vote was counted

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 07 2014 22:45 GMT

#2553

assuming they lynch OO? idk I think Rainbows, but it's just a matter of figuring out which one of you played me better, because I've definitely been manipulated this game

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 08 2014 13:33 GMT

#2566

I'm not mafia though lol, town is going to lose because of misreads on me

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 08 2014 13:40 GMT

#2567

Also can if/when Rainbows turns out to be mafia, I would like to quote you say saying he's the mafia Jesus.

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 08 2014 14:57 GMT

#2569

All I can say is that it's unfortunate that the mafia were able to play me so well.

I think the closed setup had a lot to do with it though. The fact that there wasn't a cop let Cav's cop claim just completely slide, and I couldn't see a world in which doctor+1 shot vigi is balanced vs 2 mafia + mafia roleblocker. So because there was nobody counter claiming cav, I believed him

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 08 2014 15:37 GMT

#2573

haha well you're wrong. It's odd I look at day 1, and with the votes the way they were I'd assume it was me even, because I voted Sinani and Cav was inches away from dying. Cav/Poofter were both on Sinani

But another mafia member was not. A mafia member had their vote on cav during the day, and it almost cost them. I can't believe how risky a play that way, it so very nearly backfired. And because I assumed mafia wouldn't let that happen, it skewed my entire view of the game. It all starts with cav nearly dying on that day, and me thinking mafia surely wouldn't have let it be that close.

Live and learn I guess. I'm really not sure who the mafia is out of Vivax/Rainbows but they played very well. If I had to guess I'd say Rainbows, but a part of me kinda hopes it's Vivax: that would mean my read from day 2 had some merit. But tomorrow I'll probably be voting Rainbows as it seems to me he's the more likely candidate. He's going to push me call GG and all this bullshit, Vivax goes along with it, and then mafia wins.

Oh well

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 09 2014 04:25 GMT

#2582

Vote: Rainbows

On July 09 2014 08:47 Rainbows wrote:
##Vote: ExO

I'd rather lose to scum Vivax than scum ExO. If I yolo lynch Vivax and I'm wrong, I don't think I'll live down the observer QT afterparty, who will no doubt have a field day with my ass. There are a few things that give me pause in Vivax's filter, but hopefully they are just explained by him being a cautious townie rather than scum. If he bussed cav day 1 that's a boss play. He's interacted with flipped scum as much as I have, which looks pretty good for him.

ExO if you're town I'm sorry. Most of the evidence points in that direction. Voted Sinani over Cav day 1, and haven't wanted to lynch both flipped scum at all. Energy level day 3 was approx. over 9000 at day 3 mylo with no flipped scum when the wagon was on haru, but as we lynched tehpoofter and cav the energy level depressed when it should have been a chance to reevaluate reads and admit you were wrong at some point. Either you're mafia or Vivax / cav / poofter made it look really good by pseudo-bussing vivax day 3 and hoping on your back. Also your read on me has made no sense over the course of the game I think. First I was scum for not wanting to lynch Vivax / Haru and instead lynch into poofter, then I wasn't scum, now I'm probably scum when chosen between vivax and myself.

If ExO is scum then I'm taking full postgame cred for my night 2 post which had all 3 scum in it going into mylo, and I am this games townhero.

If Vivax is scum then Koshi get's 100% postgame cred for nailing cav/poofter before he died n1, and keeping vivax in the neutral zone, while having me and exo as town.

Koshi should get cred regardless for the cav/poofter thing so koshi is townhero #2 if exo scum.

Most of what you say is true whether or not I flip scum. Koshi's stuff is accurate. My reads on your going back and forth (much like my line of thought). The following of my wrong conviction on day 3. And If you are a town we are both going to lose, having a mafia choose between us. Right now, Vivax's posting makes him seem more town to me, but he could just be a really good scum player.

I know you want your read on night 2 to have all 3 scum in it, thus making you some kind of great player. But it's confirmation bias. I made a lot of bad plays this game, but I was the first to lead on my ideas and was really hesitant on the ideas of others.

My entire game was influenced by day 1, and the fact that Cav almost got lynched, and this means 1 mafia was voting for cav. It skewed my entire thinking, because it's hella sloppy for mafia to nearly let cav die like that. That's what's fucked up my entire thinking for this whole game.

Please if you are a townie, prove it to me. Right now it looks to me like you posted a bunch of things that are going to be inherently true sprinkled with a bit of ego (Oh look how right I was night 2!), so it looks to me like you are mafia trying to convince Vivax to just go with the flow. But if you are the town, I implore you to reconsider your vote. You will lose the game. If you're the town you're going to say at the end, "but I had no way of knowing!" but I'm telling you right now if you're the town you're going to cost us the game by not thinking it through.

If Vivax is the townie (where I'm leaning at this point), then I hope you can convince me you're the town and Vivax is trying to gloat in some way over what he's perceives as a won game.

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 09 2014 12:33 GMT

#2586

HF there are literally just 3 of us left, do we have to wait a full 48 hours xD

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 09 2014 20:10 GMT

#2588

Vivax doing nothing but voting, xD how do I interpret that

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 10 2014 10:13 GMT

#2592

there's 3 people left in this game, what are we supposed to be discussing lol? there's a limit to how active we can be with 3 players left in the final vote and having to wait 48 hours

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 10 2014 13:22 GMT

#2594

just that you're not saying anything with it. Didn't you think it was me yesterday?

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 10 2014 13:58 GMT

#2596

No I'm still just Argentina the plain vanilla town.

But I could see a case on me, despite the fact that I think mafia is very lucky to be able to make it (because of day 1 almost losing cav). What convinced you that it's rainbows over me?

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 10 2014 14:40 GMT

#2599

Well looking at the post from the perspective that Rainbows is mafia:

It's odd to me that he'd encourage Vigging Cav...The only one that make sense is if they new vigi was only 1 shot, or if they knew Kush was vig...and as it turns out Kush claimed the vig kill on palmar night 1...So I guess its plausible that he encourages the vigging of cav and during the night cav just roleblocks kush.

Says Kush is showing signs of scum, which again if mafia knows he's vig (but aren't aware of only single-shot) then that's probably a good direction to push.

Sets up a situation to push me as mafia if cav flips mafia, but overall my day 1 play was horrible so I could see him making that argument as town or mafia.

I don't know what conclusions to draw off the 2nd quote though. "kushm4sta, ObviousOne, HaruRH, Vivax is a terrible list to lynch in to.." but I can't see as mafia how that's really helping him too much, as those are all confirmed townies. I know mafia like to call townies town, but what incentive does he have to say don't lynch these 4 townies, it just increases chance we'll lynch one of the mafia right?

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 10 2014 14:41 GMT

#2600

Oh god typos.

*The only way that makes sense is if they knew vigi was only 1 shot

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 10 2014 14:50 GMT

#2602

But if he's mafia, is he just doing that to create distance between them? and to be fair didn't u have a lot of negative things to say about cav as well, so couldn't the same argument be made about you?

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 10 2014 15:37 GMT

#2605

I had a post typed out here but in the course of typing it out I think I figured something out. If you were the mafia you'd just vote me and win. Rainbows probably wouldn't switch at this point if he was town, so it'd be easy.

If you were the mafia why come in here and vote rainbows? it'll create suspicion from his end and the results are less predictable than just voting me.

So perhaps I'm wrong, I've been so on several occasions during the course of this game. But if you are mafia you're taking an incredible gamble on voting rainbows instead of me, and it doesn't seem to make sense. So I think you are town and rainbows is the mafia.

Guess we'll find out soon enough

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 10 2014 20:50 GMT

#2627

I swear to god Vivax if you're the scum at the end of all this, why go through all of the trouble at the end to switch votes and shit? It makes no sense.