I'm feeling kinda sick today, but @Vivax I didn't suspect Rainbows until day 3. Before that it was primarily you and HaruRH though. The quote you posted of mine though does makes things interesting though, because it means cav could be mafia. idk, I'd have to reanalyze a lot to see if its enough to change my mind.

I'm still thinking HaruRH though.

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 06 2014 09:40 GMT

#2306

if Rainbows is town, I think the lynch today is probably OO or HaruRH

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 06 2014 12:21 GMT

#2308

On July 06 2014 18:57 Vivax wrote:

Show nested quote +

I'm not sure if you realize how crazy your reads look all the time to a majority of people who keep reaching entirely different conclusions than you.

This could be cause you can't get behind a townie's perspective and is one of the reasons you look scummy. You could also be a downright awful townie but I have a kinda hard time believing that.

For some reason you take the cop check at face value without drawing conclusions from it.
Cause then that means they roleblocked OO to kill kush at any cost, taking the risk that the alleged cop checks 1 of them. Try to draw conclusions from that.

If I'm assuming cop check is legit, wouldn't I also assume that OO's claim isn't legit? (making him mafia).

There's no need to roleblock OO if he's mafia

I'm not sure exactly what you are trying to get at, could you explain it to me?

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 06 2014 12:56 GMT

#2312

How do we know scum has a roleblocker?

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 06 2014 13:17 GMT

#2313

I'm sorry if I'm missing something obvious, I've really felt unwell the past few days and haven't gone back through and really read everything. I just dont remember establishing that there was a roleblocker

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 06 2014 23:11 GMT

#2337

I have no idea what to do at this point. Either OO or cav is mafia, if we miss lynch today do we lose? hopefully if we get it wrong today we just get the other tomorrow.

I have no idea which is lying. For a cop Cav has been entirely worthless, but if hes scum and calling rainbows town im inclined to believe him. Harurh hasnt posted in forever, and I dont know what to make of it.

if cav was lying then we only had a 1-shot vigi and a doctor? That doesnt sound good to me. Why again cant we have kush the 1-shot vigi, a doctor and a cop? is it more plausible that we only have a doctor?

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 06 2014 23:14 GMT

#2338

especially if scum has a roleblocker, that makes 3 blues more plausible. What if its neither OO nor cav? That means rainbows is innocent and Im town, leaving only vivax and harurh

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 06 2014 23:36 GMT

#2340

The rules specifically mention the following

"Nobody will be notified of any medic saves, rb's, jk's etc. If you are a vig and you get rb'd your bullet will be refunded."

While it could just be for the doctor, this to me suggests there is indeed a mafia role blocker. And I don't know, I think Kush D1 was a decent check. If I remember correctly he was claiming vigi and on day 1 I think it's impossible to get a very good read. Hindsight being 20/20 it's easy for you to say it was obvious he was town, but I'm not so sure it was.

If not rainbows on N3 then who? Who would be the better target, except actually maybe for you (unless he inherently believes you about being medic)

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 07 2014 00:38 GMT

#2348

Do we have the option to vote no lynch? If HaruRH is going to die from inactivity maybe its best to just let him be lynched and not get anybody else

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 07 2014 04:37 GMT

#2404

Don't know how the mafia is out of rainbows/OO/Vivax, but whoever it is (or may be 2) has the other guy(s) fooled completely

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 07 2014 05:06 GMT

#2416

On July 07 2014 13:58 Rainbows wrote:
ExO's posts went from day 3: KILL VIVAX/HARU/RAINBOWS GOGOGO to

day 4: shrug, i dunno. Dat scum lynch so demotivating huh?

I backed off towards the end of day 3 because I started thinking I might be wrong. Now I'm not sure how to interpret everything. I mean look at the way poofter went out, I couldn't read that at all and up until the moment he died he was insisting he's innocent.

So without kush I don't have a clue who could be town or mafia. The closed setup is messing with my mind :/

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 07 2014 15:17 GMT

#2442

The biggest knock against me, is that I didn't see cav as scum. Because I figured if we had a cop, somebody would've fought his claim. And nobody has. I saw Vivax and Harurh, and I was told it was confirmation bias. Now you are experiencing the same thing.

You better hope to God that Harurh is mafia, because if you kill me and he isn't, the game is over. I'm town, and while I think Harurh is mafia his absence is weird. He just might be town.

Whoever the mafia is here is manipulating everybody, wouldn't surprise me if it was Vivax/Rainbows.

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 07 2014 16:33 GMT

#2448

I don't have a good way to give an opinion on HaruRH, he's practically disappeared. I thought he was mafia, but it's hard for me to imagine a mafia would just disappear like this when the game is close and they have a realistic shot of winning.

On July 07 2014 14:22 Rainbows wrote:
Cav don't vote haru. Either you or ExO dies today. and if haru gets modkilled thats a bonus.

So guess where I want your vote.

Somebody sure is excited for lots of people to be dying right at the end. I think he's actively trying to take advantage of the fact that I was wrong when poofter flipped mafia. If you look at him he keeps trying to push me in the Vivax/Harurh/poofter direction, while also trying to get people to lynch me.

Voting wise, On poofter he's the 4th lynch vote. This doesn't really mean much as that can swing either way imo. Normally I'd say the more suspicious votes are myself and cav, but I don't think it's that simple at this point. I voted late because I didn't think he was mafia, what if Cav did the same?

As far as cav, I'm having a hard time believing he could make a fake claim like that day 1 and get away with it if he were mafia. This is a lot of meta reading in a sense, but I can't imagine the host making a game without a power role like cop. I can imagine a game with a cop/doctor/1-shot vigi and 2 regular mafia 1 roleblocker. So without any other claims, and nobody contesting his claim, I can't see him as mafia. It just doesn't add up to me.

The alternative in which he is mafia, leaves us with 1 doctor/1-shot vigi and 3 regular mafia. Is that a more balanced setup? I can't say it is.

However this all leads us to Cav saying rainbows is town. So if I believe Cav is town, rainbows is town, I'm town, that leaves OO, Vivax, and harurh.

Considering this possibility leads to the idea that OO is lying about his claim. And I guess lack of a doctor makes more sense to me than lack of a cop.

Based on the votes of today, Rainbows is town. If Cav isn't lying, that's confirmed with his claim: if he is lying then why is Rainbows really pushing for his death. So I can't see Cav and Rainbows together. This means Rainbows is town. I feel like if I'm going with my gut about the cav read, this leaves Vivax/OO or OO/Harurh, or Vivax/Harurh.

I'm going to say
Vote:Lynch OO

But really there's just so many possibilities. What if I've been fooled by cav? If that's the case then it could be Cav/? It could be anybody. With Harurh dying to inactivity presumably (even with this vote I think) then we need to get it right tonight. So I think OO is the best bet, but I'm so full of doubts that I can't say it with conviction.

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 07 2014 16:35 GMT

#2449

err looks like I accidently striked through my 4th paragraph, starting with: As far as cav.

That shouldn't be struck through, only the part about rainbows.

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 07 2014 17:06 GMT

#2452

On July 08 2014 02:00 Rainbows wrote:
And ExO the development of your reads made no sense when Poofter flipped scum. I don't see how you went from VIVAX/HARU 100% scum +1, and then when poofter flips scum, you shrug and say I don't know. It doesn't make a lick of sense to me if you're town.

because I didn't think poofter was scum. I was sure it was Vivax Harurh + you or an off chance of somebody like OO, but I didn't think poofter. It meant that my reads were wrong to some degree, and that meant I might be wrong about the whole thing.

It's like believing 100% in something, then having it turn out not true. Makes you question everything else you believe in.

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 07 2014 17:37 GMT

#2460

hard to wrap my brain around around 2 blues, a 1 shot vigi and a doctor, vs a role blocker and 2 mafia though

ExO_

United States2316 Posts

July 07 2014 18:35 GMT

#2512

Robik struck me as idiotic for his fake claims non-stop.

ExO_

United States2316 Posts