World Cup Mini Mafia - Page 79

On July 02 2014 21:59 Vivax wrote:
Meh I'm starting to think Exo is town, that sense of righteousness around his posts and his repeated asking for me to be vigged is just odd if he's scum. He shouldn't really have such an incentive to post at night but on the other hand maybe HF is threatening to modkill his ass.

Anyway if there's a cop out there who knows that Cav is mafia, tomorrow would be a good time to counterclaim him.

On July 02 2014 10:36 Rainbows wrote:
More work tmrw so probably best to get these out now -- we most likely need to lynch scum tomorrow or game over, right? 9 alive right now. (3 v 6). scum kill 1 at night (3v5), then if mislynch + KP it's game over. If I die, listen to me. For God's sake, listen to me. I feel like I'm alone in this town after yesterday, and we need to get shit done tomorrow. Apologies for the wall of text but I don't feel like quoting anything and I'm tired so w.e.

Tomorrow.

Do NOT lynch Vivax if he is still alive. He is probably town, but has some pressure on him from people I'm finding scummy. I don't know for 100% if he is town, but he's the closest thing I can get to someone I can trust. If he is mafia, he will probably survive until 1v2 lylo where, if not dead, town will need to take a good look at him and decide from there. If he is lynched tomorrow and flips town, I will never forgive anyone who is town and lynched him because my read was correct.

IAmRobik

I've been heralding him as "too crazy to be scum" for quite some time -- and that heuristic rings true with most of the work I've done in mafia so far. Mderg did bring up a good point, though that his shenanigans (the 'fake slip, the fake claim vigi) haven't net us any mafia and have lynched town so far. With Mderg flipping town, I think that is something good to look at. Robik posting Liar Liar Liar to Mderg seemed a bit excessive to me at the time, and I also thought Mderg was mafia, but not for that reason. He's crazy, but mafia can be crazy. Still, f Robik is mafia, he's played extremely well. And I would condone him for it post game--he and Mocsta fooled me hard in Order, but that was a hydra. He is sure playing much differently than last game. I wouldn't lynch him tomorrow based on the change in meta imo, and that I hope my too crazy to be scum theory works out in the end. Again, more flips equal more analysis.

For the two above, the hardest thing to parse out between mafia play and town play is intention. It is impossible to know whether or not Vivax or Robik intentionally mislynch a townie. Once a scum flips however, hopefully the association and the "Did he really want to lynch scum X?" will guide us to them if they are mafia. For now, though, they are bad lynches.

Tehpoofter

I haven't looked at Banks the entire game. Vivax said something that I really agreed with, that Tehpoofter is the "closest thing we can get to a ghost" in this game. He has a bunch of pages in his filter which indicates activity -- but I can't remember most of what he's done this game. I know that he has voted on both mislynches. Voted Mderg early on when everyone was on Haru. Looking through his filter, I can't say his analysis on situations is terrible. But I can't say his posts are astounding either. Posting a lot but blending into the background, mislynching townies, a decent pick to be scum. He has also defended Cav, which I find bad because town has no friggen clue whether Cav is faking cop or not. Could be scum trying to keep his fake cop alive, or scum trying to buddy up the real cop. I don't think Cav's flip has any relation to whether Banks is mafia or not, but I do think that Banks is scummy for believing in the cop claim wholly on day 2.

ExO

Same goes for ExO. For some reason, he believes that Cav is the cop almost whole-heartedly. The reason I'm at the opposition of ExO / TP is partially because I'm seeing two camps. Me / Robik / Vivax + others who are really speculative on the issue of cav being cop, and ExO / TP who seem to accept it quickly. The issue of whether Cav is actually the cop or not is irrelevant, the issue arises when people are reacting differently to the claim. Most of us appear speculative of the issue, but these two seem to believe it for... what reason I can't tell. Mafia, regardless of Cav's actual alignment, have everything to gain by 'trusting' Cav. If he flips town, they were correct and look better. If he is mafia, then they are protecting their buddy. In addition, ExO has been exhibiting mafia characteristics all game, and the resistance to his lynch yesterday sucked eggs. His reads are really flipped from mine, and that difference in opinion alone probably means he is not the same alignment as myself.

Kush

Almost certainly the vigilante. No reason to not believe him at this point, and he's barely done the scumtell I've been talking about. Btw the scumtell I was looking for in Kush was really thinly-veiled reasons to townread other players. In Order he gave a sequence of posts that were like "x is town" "y is town" "z is fucking town" for no reason, and defended people (like Haru!) that I wanted to lynch. More credibility for calling people town, i guess, but not really done that this game.

Cav

Massclaim will probably sort this out TBH. If there are 4 total blue claims / flips then lynch Cav. 3 is possible in a 13 player game but meh idk. Unless someone claims cop, then really scrutinize that person because they should have claimed ages ago and might be mafia trying to mislynch the cop. I've been getting the scum feels from Cav almost the entire game. His reads on Vivax and Palmar were plain garbs at the beginning of the game. He has made promises and not followed up on them, seemingly done on purpose. He hasn't done anything since the start of the game to make me believe he isn't mafia, and if he is town, I'm willing to lose the game on a lynch on him. At least I could blame the loss on the grounds of a bad cop.

HaruRH

The lynch yesterday leaves me worried. I thought most of or all of the scumteam was on him. So I dnu, meta would suggest that he is town. Cav / poof both on him. Cav / poof / exo scumteam? Maybe OO. I haven't done any really hard analysis of Haru, which is terrible of me because he was a main wagon yesterday. My gut says town, scum don't like saying "I don't do reads on D1, fek off son" to a townie. That just creates pressure and puts the spotlight on. There are a few things I don't like about his filter, but for now, don't lynch tomorrow imo.

ObviousOne

I still don't know what was up with his Koshi read, he never answered me on that. Seems almost as ghost-like as banks. Activity went down the toilet D2, kinda parked his vote on Haru. Had one post I thought looked townie but other than that, I can't really tell. Not having a decent read on him into day 3 sucks.

By PoE, if my gut towns are town, then the scumteam lies in 3 of:

Cav
ExO
TP
OO

Two "ghosts", one genuinely scummy guy, and the scummy cop claim. Not bad if you ask me.

We lynch into that tomorrow, imo. Especially if I wind up dead tonight, you listen to this list. You lynch one of those guys. This is where we begin towns comeback, and as mafia are flipped then we re-evaluate our town reads if they don't die at night.

On July 03 2014 00:55 Rainbows wrote:
Haru if you're scum I'm going to be a sad panda.

On July 03 2014 01:01 HaruRH wrote:
How crazy will it sound for me to say that there is no scum and this game is purely just for host to see which country survives till the end and then bet on the 'winning' team

On July 03 2014 01:14 Rainbows wrote:
Im hitler. HEIL