EPTWorld Cup Mini Mafia - Page 3
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
Looking at the end, mderg tried to switch but his vote didn't go through. If he's mafia, I don't think he tries that. I mean why? What's the incentive?* This makes me think he isn't mafia. And if Cava is mafia, the mafia team sure was willing to let him die day 1. He came extremely close. This makes me think, that Cava isn't mafia either. Ruling out these 2, myself, and the people that have already died leaves me with this list, of which I believe the 3 mafia names are contained 1) ObviousOne 4) kushm4sta 5) Tehpoofter 9) Rainbows 11) Vivax 12) IAmRobik 13) HaruRH *(in the course of investigating this list, I realized an incentive: mderg could be switching as mafia to try to kill the claimed cop, though I think it's highly unlikely.) So after going through these filters the 2 most likely Candidates for mafia in my opinion are Vivax and HaruRH. Starting with HaruRH, he really pushes the idea of killing off Cav day 2 if he doesn't die Night 1. He's also actively trying to link cav and mderg, or at least repeatedly claiming both as mafia. This isn't a solid idea in my opinion. If Cav is mafia, why does mderg switch to him at the last second? mderg could be mafia, but the way he switched votes at the last second to cav doesn't seem to me like a mafia trying to get the cop lynched. HaruRH I think wants cav lynch on day 2, have him flip town, and then wants to lynch mderg day 3 because he knows 1 of those 2 is scum. The case on HaruRH is decent, but I think there is a possibility he's a severely misguided town. A very slim possibility and I really think it's much more likely he's mafia. But I have almost no doubt in my mind that Vivax is scum. Let's start with: + Show Spoiler + On June 29 2014 05:22 Vivax wrote: Just fyi, Palmar tells his dying scumbuddies to fakeclaim before they die so theý fish a blue coutnerclaiming with their death. If you're cop don't counterclaim, keep a mental note that cav is scum, get your check off and then see if you can claim the next day. If my theory is correct, Vivax knows that cav isn't scum. He probably believes Cav's cop claim. But for public purposes, he has to appear as though he doesn't believe cavs cop claim. So he says the aforementioned. Also he's planting seeds to kill Palmar, but palmar died (likely died to town vigilante). We know palmar flipped town. I don't think Vivax was counting on this, but it does make what he said here look odd. If you read his filter he is trying hard to set up for Palmer. + Show Spoiler + On June 28 2014 17:30 Vivax wrote: I think kush and sinani are town, cause their reactions were similar to mine and cause kush is giving me some town feelz with more recent posts. I don't see anything wrong with sinani backpedaling from his vote cause I would have done the same. . Mafia calling town as town. + Show Spoiler + On July 01 2014 00:56 Vivax wrote: Is there any poor soul in here that still thinks Cava is a cop? Where have his N1 posts been when he should have been afraid of being NKed, leading to him posting about stuff that would be important before his eventual death? Because I believe cav isn't mafia, this looks to me like mafia afraid cav would be mediced on N1, and is setting up for a D2 lynch on cav (who is the cop). So those are my thoughts. I think HaruRH and Vivax are scum based on the day 1 voting, and what's been said. Everybody else is either a town read or a null read for me. I'm not sure who the 3rd mafia might be. ##Lynch Vivax | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
the 1st paragraph of my above post was from when I first started analysis, and thus doesn't indicate that mafia did indeed have an incentive to potentially kill cav (claimed cop) over sinani. But I think the incentive is minor enough that mafia is okay with either one (meaning a mafia wasn't up for voting on D1) | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
##vote Haru Vivax is the better choice tho :/ | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On July 02 2014 05:04 Vivax wrote: Go into detail I want to hear your full reasoning for why he wouldn't ever drop that meaningless vote a mafia. Okay, I explained this earlier, but theres no way he and cav are both mafia, because mderg nearly got cav killed day 1 with that late vote switch that didn't count. So if cav was mafia mderg wouldn't have switched. So if you assume mderg is mafia and cav isnt then why is mderg switching to cav at the last second? mafia that don't have their plan in order by the last 60s are really sloppy. I dont believe as mafia that merg is switching that late, mafia were already voting and sticking by that point. mderg was a concerned town reacting to 2 last minute votes | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On July 02 2014 05:27 IAmRobik wrote: ExO could be sincere and he and mderg are mafia together and cava is town, but meh if this is true why wouldn't I just hop on cav bandwagon now? it'd be too complex, mafia trying to meta game that much instead of taking an easy chance to lynch push a town cav lynch are bound to have it backfire | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On July 02 2014 05:30 IAmRobik wrote: I do...but if we lynch Cava and Cava flips cop then ExO is almost certainly mafia based off of the fact that he brought the logic that mberg doesn't do that as scum -- it doesn't necessarily make mderg scum for switching late. How would I be mafia? I think cav is town and mderg is town, and stated such several hours ago | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On July 02 2014 05:34 Cavalinho wrote: [i]Why? Why am I shady?[i] Nobody fucking follows my reads and then says I'm shady because I'm not playing. Are we just disregarding every single thing I say this game? I think you should stay calm. Mafia wants you to feel isolated. At the very least I'm listening to you | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On July 02 2014 05:43 Vivax wrote: Mderg if you are indeed town, then pin a guy who you think is trying to profit from the situation by defending you, for example. this is a scummy as fuck question to ask. If hes town, town would profit from defending him, no? | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On July 02 2014 05:51 Vivax wrote: I didn't find an important answer in your filter, so I'll ask it now: Why did you switch last minute to Cava at all if you previously said he shouldn't be lynched? Me and Koshi's votes? Holy shit its obvious why. He saw 2 votes at the last second for sinani and thought mafia were jumping on sinani giving town no time to react. So he tried to react | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On July 02 2014 05:55 Vivax wrote: Given how hard Exo is defending this guy and pushing for haru last minute I'm being paranoid that maybe we should follow that advice. I've been pushing haruh for at least the past 12 hours, I think more. though I'd much rather push you. I think your a clever scum player | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On July 02 2014 05:59 Vivax wrote: Besides mderg, your story is this: You say Cav shouldn't be lynched cause claim. You vote sinani, Exo votes sinani, you see Exo voting him and try to switch to Cava. This just doesn't make sense to an outsider and if you're town I hope you understand why. it makes perfect sense as town. a town on day 1 has zero information, and if you think your reads as town are 100% perfect on day 1 you are either stupid or overconfident. He saw last second votes and panicked. mafia wouldnt panic | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On July 02 2014 06:04 Vivax wrote: Why should he have panicked if you voted for the guy he thought should be lynched?????? Your confidence into him being town is what's scummy. His panic was because I voted last second with hardly an explanation. And somebody else did too. it looked like a last second mafia votes. thats why the switch at the last second. there was no time to wait for explanations. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On July 02 2014 06:16 Vivax wrote: I think tomorrow I'll be pushing for either Cava or Poofter who were both on Koshi's list you are scum. koshi was a vanilla town. VT reads can be wrong. as mafia you're trying to look good by pushing for people on a confirmed towns list. But there is stroner evidence than simple reads, and thats reads from votes. D1 reads shouldn't trump everything we've seen since then | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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