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World Cup Mini Mafia - Page 123

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Rainbows
Profile Joined March 2013
Germany1217 Posts
July 07 2014 14:40 GMT
#2441
Im pretty sure the team is Cav / exo or cav / haru...

Is hari getting modboned?
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
July 07 2014 15:17 GMT
#2442
The biggest knock against me, is that I didn't see cav as scum. Because I figured if we had a cop, somebody would've fought his claim. And nobody has. I saw Vivax and Harurh, and I was told it was confirmation bias. Now you are experiencing the same thing.

You better hope to God that Harurh is mafia, because if you kill me and he isn't, the game is over. I'm town, and while I think Harurh is mafia his absence is weird. He just might be town.

Whoever the mafia is here is manipulating everybody, wouldn't surprise me if it was Vivax/Rainbows.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22314 Posts
July 07 2014 15:23 GMT
#2443
On July 08 2014 00:17 ExO_ wrote:
The biggest knock against me, is that I didn't see cav as scum. Because I figured if we had a cop, somebody would've fought his claim. And nobody has. I saw Vivax and Harurh, and I was told it was confirmation bias. Now you are experiencing the same thing.

You better hope to God that Harurh is mafia, because if you kill me and he isn't, the game is over. I'm town, and while I think Harurh is mafia his absence is weird. He just might be town.

Whoever the mafia is here is manipulating everybody, wouldn't surprise me if it was Vivax/Rainbows.


Something in the back of my head wants me to believe it's rainbows. Mostly it's kush's death, so if you're town try to convince me and give me a reread and an opinion on rainbows/haru/Cav based on their posts and not scumteam combos.

If you're town and want to win this game help us both and show me you're not lying scum.
HaruRH
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Singapore2780 Posts
July 07 2014 15:51 GMT
#2444
38.5 degrees fever. Can't think.
##Vote: Cavalinho
It is fucking D4 and you are still alive as a CONFIRMED FUCKING TOWN. This is how fucking terrible scum thinks you are - Koshi
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22314 Posts
July 07 2014 15:54 GMT
#2445
So, Cav and Exo should be around but I don't see them posting.

Maybe it's them and the game is just that easy.
Cavalinho
Profile Joined February 2014
United States946 Posts
July 07 2014 16:10 GMT
#2446
I'm here.

Haru is still getting away with the bare minimum and people still want me over him.

This is a joke.
Spectaticle
Cavalinho
Profile Joined February 2014
United States946 Posts
July 07 2014 16:11 GMT
#2447
And idk when ExO started thinking I was fake.

I guess that just kinda happened at some point and we're all supposed to roll with it.
Spectaticle
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
July 07 2014 16:33 GMT
#2448
I don't have a good way to give an opinion on HaruRH, he's practically disappeared. I thought he was mafia, but it's hard for me to imagine a mafia would just disappear like this when the game is close and they have a realistic shot of winning.

On July 07 2014 14:22 Rainbows wrote:
Cav don't vote haru. Either you or ExO dies today. and if haru gets modkilled thats a bonus.

So guess where I want your vote.


Somebody sure is excited for lots of people to be dying right at the end. I think he's actively trying to take advantage of the fact that I was wrong when poofter flipped mafia. If you look at him he keeps trying to push me in the Vivax/Harurh/poofter direction, while also trying to get people to lynch me.

Voting wise, On poofter he's the 4th lynch vote. This doesn't really mean much as that can swing either way imo. Normally I'd say the more suspicious votes are myself and cav, but I don't think it's that simple at this point. I voted late because I didn't think he was mafia, what if Cav did the same?

As far as cav, I'm having a hard time believing he could make a fake claim like that day 1 and get away with it if he were mafia. This is a lot of meta reading in a sense, but I can't imagine the host making a game without a power role like cop. I can imagine a game with a cop/doctor/1-shot vigi and 2 regular mafia 1 roleblocker. So without any other claims, and nobody contesting his claim, I can't see him as mafia. It just doesn't add up to me.


The alternative in which he is mafia, leaves us with 1 doctor/1-shot vigi and 3 regular mafia. Is that a more balanced setup? I can't say it is.

However this all leads us to Cav saying rainbows is town. So if I believe Cav is town, rainbows is town, I'm town, that leaves OO, Vivax, and harurh.

Considering this possibility leads to the idea that OO is lying about his claim. And I guess lack of a doctor makes more sense to me than lack of a cop.

Based on the votes of today, Rainbows is town. If Cav isn't lying, that's confirmed with his claim: if he is lying then why is Rainbows really pushing for his death. So I can't see Cav and Rainbows together. This means Rainbows is town. I feel like if I'm going with my gut about the cav read, this leaves Vivax/OO or OO/Harurh, or Vivax/Harurh.

I'm going to say
Vote:Lynch OO

But really there's just so many possibilities. What if I've been fooled by cav? If that's the case then it could be Cav/? It could be anybody. With Harurh dying to inactivity presumably (even with this vote I think) then we need to get it right tonight. So I think OO is the best bet, but I'm so full of doubts that I can't say it with conviction.
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
July 07 2014 16:35 GMT
#2449
err looks like I accidently striked through my 4th paragraph, starting with: As far as cav.

That shouldn't be struck through, only the part about rainbows.
Rainbows
Profile Joined March 2013
Germany1217 Posts
July 07 2014 16:54 GMT
#2450
Also I was the second vote on Poofter, I just trolled and switched to haru and OO for no reason when drunk. Sheeped Kush as soon as he put the vote down.
Rainbows
Profile Joined March 2013
Germany1217 Posts
July 07 2014 17:00 GMT
#2451
And ExO the development of your reads made no sense when Poofter flipped scum. I don't see how you went from VIVAX/HARU 100% scum +1, and then when poofter flips scum, you shrug and say I don't know. It doesn't make a lick of sense to me if you're town.
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
July 07 2014 17:06 GMT
#2452
On July 08 2014 02:00 Rainbows wrote:
And ExO the development of your reads made no sense when Poofter flipped scum. I don't see how you went from VIVAX/HARU 100% scum +1, and then when poofter flips scum, you shrug and say I don't know. It doesn't make a lick of sense to me if you're town.


because I didn't think poofter was scum. I was sure it was Vivax Harurh + you or an off chance of somebody like OO, but I didn't think poofter. It meant that my reads were wrong to some degree, and that meant I might be wrong about the whole thing.

It's like believing 100% in something, then having it turn out not true. Makes you question everything else you believe in.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22314 Posts
July 07 2014 17:08 GMT
#2453
On July 08 2014 02:06 ExO_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 08 2014 02:00 Rainbows wrote:
And ExO the development of your reads made no sense when Poofter flipped scum. I don't see how you went from VIVAX/HARU 100% scum +1, and then when poofter flips scum, you shrug and say I don't know. It doesn't make a lick of sense to me if you're town.


because I didn't think poofter was scum. I was sure it was Vivax Harurh + you or an off chance of somebody like OO, but I didn't think poofter. It meant that my reads were wrong to some degree, and that meant I might be wrong about the whole thing.

It's like believing 100% in something, then having it turn out not true. Makes you question everything else you believe in.


Yea and there's one question you still didn't answer about this shit and it's why you excluded rainbows from the scummers but not me post-Poofter-flip.
Rainbows
Profile Joined March 2013
Germany1217 Posts
July 07 2014 17:08 GMT
#2454
On July 08 2014 02:06 ExO_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 08 2014 02:00 Rainbows wrote:
And ExO the development of your reads made no sense when Poofter flipped scum. I don't see how you went from VIVAX/HARU 100% scum +1, and then when poofter flips scum, you shrug and say I don't know. It doesn't make a lick of sense to me if you're town.


because I didn't think poofter was scum. I was sure it was Vivax Harurh + you or an off chance of somebody like OO, but I didn't think poofter. It meant that my reads were wrong to some degree, and that meant I might be wrong about the whole thing.

It's like believing 100% in something, then having it turn out not true. Makes you question everything else you believe in.


The logical thing to do is just reevaluate your reads based on Poofter's flip. And you haven't done that. Poofter's filter indicates Cav as scum.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22314 Posts
July 07 2014 17:13 GMT
#2455
On July 08 2014 02:08 Rainbows wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 08 2014 02:06 ExO_ wrote:
On July 08 2014 02:00 Rainbows wrote:
And ExO the development of your reads made no sense when Poofter flipped scum. I don't see how you went from VIVAX/HARU 100% scum +1, and then when poofter flips scum, you shrug and say I don't know. It doesn't make a lick of sense to me if you're town.


because I didn't think poofter was scum. I was sure it was Vivax Harurh + you or an off chance of somebody like OO, but I didn't think poofter. It meant that my reads were wrong to some degree, and that meant I might be wrong about the whole thing.

It's like believing 100% in something, then having it turn out not true. Makes you question everything else you believe in.


The logical thing to do is just reevaluate your reads based on Poofter's flip. And you haven't done that. Poofter's filter indicates Cav as scum.


Show me how it does cause I want to see it.
I'm fairly clueless with so many people not posting atm.
Cavalinho
Profile Joined February 2014
United States946 Posts
July 07 2014 17:19 GMT
#2456
It's because everyone is coasting since I'm set to get lynched.

Seriously, lynch Haru. This should be a nonissue. Haru has completely fallen off/has a shitfilter in yet we've all townread him for 0 reasons.
Spectaticle
Rainbows
Profile Joined March 2013
Germany1217 Posts
July 07 2014 17:22 GMT
#2457
On July 04 2014 07:15 Tehpoofter wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 04 2014 06:22 Tehpoofter wrote:
Did OO ever claim?


why yes he did poofter he claimed doctor.

So Between the 3 claims one almost assuredly is fake.

Kush is most believable because he claimed to have shot Palmer and at night was asking people about palmer being town. He also yelled at robik for claiming it and asked him why he was being stupid like he KNEW he was the one who did it.

Cav is basically forced to claim day 1. He claims or dies. It felt to me like the newbie game where he claimed on day 1 and still got lynched. (Almost happened again) He has since gotten pushed on by who I think is the scummiest person in the game Vivax then backed off then pushed some more.

OO is claiming at a lylo situation as the last person to claim. He has the post where he softed twice it seems. Which is good but being kinda out of the game and not initially wanting to lynch cav (in his claim post) looks weird for him a bit. He has been one of my townier reads so I'm not really sure. I feel like if OO had opened the day with his claim instead of being the last one it would make him probably the town.

For me I'd say kush is easily the most believable I could see the other two being scum and town. I don't really see a world with 2 pr's that are scum Vigi Cop and Vigi Medic both seem like fairly balanced setups. Purely setup wise I feel like Vigi Cop is more likely because it seems scum only has 1 kp and if there is Vigi medic and medic gets some saves the game becomes really hard for scum. Although town not having a cop makes it hard for town as well.

So in the 3 we have probably a 33% chance (more like 50% if you believe kush) or in the other 5 we have a 50% chance from my POV (or anyone in the other 5 of hitting a scum) or a 40% chance if you are outside the claims. I think for me the mafia is Vivax/Rainbows or Haru and one between OO/Cav For me I'd love to kill vivax because hes my strongest read. I think kush has had the wool pulled over his eyes by the amount of posting hes doing. But imagine a world where him and OO are scumbuddies and vivax works all day to make the cop look bad and just for insurance has OO come in and claim medic to his preestablished claim.

Bleh I need to think about this.



On July 04 2014 12:07 Tehpoofter wrote:
Oh as to the Cav thing again I've said it before in my head i thought if Cav was mafia it would become VERY obvious someone would claim in a townie way and it would be just like insta lynch Cav or he would die or just become confirmed at some point. I thuoght OO did it in a scummy way which through a wrench in what I thoguht would happen. I said something to robik about it here.
Show nested quote +
On July 01 2014 09:46 Tehpoofter wrote:
Since Im apparently just talking to myself. A couple thoughts for the game. Why is everyone town reading Vivax? I really don't see it. I feel like his game play has not been townie. I think that he is probably upset that Palmer got shot because it gave him an easy tunnel and that was taken from him. He also is really playing up the Koshi kill making him look good which is scummy. Idk someone just let me know what I'm missing.

I think that Robik and me are on the same page when it comes to Cav and how to handle him... at least I hope so by the way he is talking. So I feel like scum would have to kill both of us to play out the Cav situation in their favor. I'm sure others know what to do to but Look for guidance on that from Robik should I not be here.

How many PRs does HF usually put into his games? (This one probably not best for discussions in thread but more of a food for thought)

I'm going to look at other shit on here but I should be around for a couple hours.




As its a common play in video mafia.


Poofter always thought OO was the scummier one but never Cav. He claims that Cav is an innocent little newbie. If both are town, then scum poofter probably has no difference in opinion on either of them.

But he has preference. Because one of them he doesn't want to lynch.
Rainbows
Profile Joined March 2013
Germany1217 Posts
July 07 2014 17:31 GMT
#2458
In the first post he basically sums up what happens to Cav, but doesn't give a read on him
Cavalinho
Profile Joined February 2014
United States946 Posts
July 07 2014 17:34 GMT
#2459
Your case is based on the fact that he was open to my lynch without giving a read on me.

Every single player in the game has done this.

Though it would be fun to note that Poofter expressly called me real during day 2.
Spectaticle
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
July 07 2014 17:37 GMT
#2460
hard to wrap my brain around around 2 blues, a 1 shot vigi and a doctor, vs a role blocker and 2 mafia though
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