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On July 07 2014 15:54 Cavalinho wrote: I don't see anything besides associative garbage between unflipped players.
I feel like people are keeping me from going in the basement. You ever play Half-Life 2? "We don't go to Ravenholm," or something like that.
That's what this feels like. yeah but that grav gun tho
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Lol this late push on me is pretty retarded thank fuck he was RB I am finally free
Why is Haru not mercy modkilled already this is horseshit, 2 posts today
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Oh he was
Based holy flare
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k i protected myself tonight
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omg it would have been sick if i had claimed doctor but was really a veteran and we ended up in this position
like so sick
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On June 30 2014 09:03 Rainbows wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2014 09:01 Rainbows wrote:On June 30 2014 08:59 Cavalinho wrote:On June 30 2014 08:53 ExO_ wrote: Forget Cavalinho, Robik is all over the place. Silly fake claims, says palmar is town and he shot him. Just generally trying to look like somebody fucking around. Only I think that's exactly it. He's trying to look like he's a townie messing around. He's scum in town's clothing...or more like scum dressed like a town trying to dress like fake scum.
Whatever it is, he's cross dressing up a storm.
##Lynch Robik Possibly. His play isn't entirely congruent, so there could be something here. We aren't lynching Robik today though. The people on the sinani wagon should be like confirmed town to you right now. Focus on the people on my wagon. Why? kushm4sta, ObviousOne, HaruRH, Vivax This is a fucking retarded list to lynch into. Everyone I didn't list is either confirmed town or myself. And kush is probably the vigi. Nope.
On June 30 2014 09:26 Rainbows wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2014 09:21 ExO_ wrote:On June 30 2014 09:20 Rainbows wrote: ExO, what I'm trying to say is: Why would you even say "just lynch me I'm VT" as town. IT MAKES NO SENSE TO ME S A R C A S Msometimes you gotta think about it to understand it Love when someone does something scummy and just says it was sarcasm, trolling, whatever. WOULD PEOPLE PLAY THE GAME INSTEAD short highlight reel for why i think rainbows is town between the two
no reason to bus his whole team in one post, this is far too detailed and thought through to be from scum unless he's the new mafia jesus
On July 02 2014 10:36 Rainbows wrote: More work tmrw so probably best to get these out now -- we most likely need to lynch scum tomorrow or game over, right? 9 alive right now. (3 v 6). scum kill 1 at night (3v5), then if mislynch + KP it's game over. If I die, listen to me. For God's sake, listen to me. I feel like I'm alone in this town after yesterday, and we need to get shit done tomorrow. Apologies for the wall of text but I don't feel like quoting anything and I'm tired so w.e.
Tomorrow.
Do NOT lynch Vivax if he is still alive. He is probably town, but has some pressure on him from people I'm finding scummy. I don't know for 100% if he is town, but he's the closest thing I can get to someone I can trust. If he is mafia, he will probably survive until 1v2 lylo where, if not dead, town will need to take a good look at him and decide from there. If he is lynched tomorrow and flips town, I will never forgive anyone who is town and lynched him because my read was correct.
IAmRobik
I've been heralding him as "too crazy to be scum" for quite some time -- and that heuristic rings true with most of the work I've done in mafia so far. Mderg did bring up a good point, though that his shenanigans (the 'fake slip, the fake claim vigi) haven't net us any mafia and have lynched town so far. With Mderg flipping town, I think that is something good to look at. Robik posting Liar Liar Liar to Mderg seemed a bit excessive to me at the time, and I also thought Mderg was mafia, but not for that reason. He's crazy, but mafia can be crazy. Still, f Robik is mafia, he's played extremely well. And I would condone him for it post game--he and Mocsta fooled me hard in Order, but that was a hydra. He is sure playing much differently than last game. I wouldn't lynch him tomorrow based on the change in meta imo, and that I hope my too crazy to be scum theory works out in the end. Again, more flips equal more analysis.
For the two above, the hardest thing to parse out between mafia play and town play is intention. It is impossible to know whether or not Vivax or Robik intentionally mislynch a townie. Once a scum flips however, hopefully the association and the "Did he really want to lynch scum X?" will guide us to them if they are mafia. For now, though, they are bad lynches.
Tehpoofter
I haven't looked at Banks the entire game. Vivax said something that I really agreed with, that Tehpoofter is the "closest thing we can get to a ghost" in this game. He has a bunch of pages in his filter which indicates activity -- but I can't remember most of what he's done this game. I know that he has voted on both mislynches. Voted Mderg early on when everyone was on Haru. Looking through his filter, I can't say his analysis on situations is terrible. But I can't say his posts are astounding either. Posting a lot but blending into the background, mislynching townies, a decent pick to be scum. He has also defended Cav, which I find bad because town has no friggen clue whether Cav is faking cop or not. Could be scum trying to keep his fake cop alive, or scum trying to buddy up the real cop. I don't think Cav's flip has any relation to whether Banks is mafia or not, but I do think that Banks is scummy for believing in the cop claim wholly on day 2.
ExO
Same goes for ExO. For some reason, he believes that Cav is the cop almost whole-heartedly. The reason I'm at the opposition of ExO / TP is partially because I'm seeing two camps. Me / Robik / Vivax + others who are really speculative on the issue of cav being cop, and ExO / TP who seem to accept it quickly. The issue of whether Cav is actually the cop or not is irrelevant, the issue arises when people are reacting differently to the claim. Most of us appear speculative of the issue, but these two seem to believe it for... what reason I can't tell. Mafia, regardless of Cav's actual alignment, have everything to gain by 'trusting' Cav. If he flips town, they were correct and look better. If he is mafia, then they are protecting their buddy. In addition, ExO has been exhibiting mafia characteristics all game, and the resistance to his lynch yesterday sucked eggs. His reads are really flipped from mine, and that difference in opinion alone probably means he is not the same alignment as myself.
Kush
Almost certainly the vigilante. No reason to not believe him at this point, and he's barely done the scumtell I've been talking about. Btw the scumtell I was looking for in Kush was really thinly-veiled reasons to townread other players. In Order he gave a sequence of posts that were like "x is town" "y is town" "z is fucking town" for no reason, and defended people (like Haru!) that I wanted to lynch. More credibility for calling people town, i guess, but not really done that this game.
Cav
Massclaim will probably sort this out TBH. If there are 4 total blue claims / flips then lynch Cav. 3 is possible in a 13 player game but meh idk. Unless someone claims cop, then really scrutinize that person because they should have claimed ages ago and might be mafia trying to mislynch the cop. I've been getting the scum feels from Cav almost the entire game. His reads on Vivax and Palmar were plain garbs at the beginning of the game. He has made promises and not followed up on them, seemingly done on purpose. He hasn't done anything since the start of the game to make me believe he isn't mafia, and if he is town, I'm willing to lose the game on a lynch on him. At least I could blame the loss on the grounds of a bad cop.
HaruRH
The lynch yesterday leaves me worried. I thought most of or all of the scumteam was on him. So I dnu, meta would suggest that he is town. Cav / poof both on him. Cav / poof / exo scumteam? Maybe OO. I haven't done any really hard analysis of Haru, which is terrible of me because he was a main wagon yesterday. My gut says town, scum don't like saying "I don't do reads on D1, fek off son" to a townie. That just creates pressure and puts the spotlight on. There are a few things I don't like about his filter, but for now, don't lynch tomorrow imo.
ObviousOne
I still don't know what was up with his Koshi read, he never answered me on that. Seems almost as ghost-like as banks. Activity went down the toilet D2, kinda parked his vote on Haru. Had one post I thought looked townie but other than that, I can't really tell. Not having a decent read on him into day 3 sucks.
By PoE, if my gut towns are town, then the scumteam lies in 3 of:
Cav ExO TP OO
Two "ghosts", one genuinely scummy guy, and the scummy cop claim. Not bad if you ask me.
We lynch into that tomorrow, imo. Especially if I wind up dead tonight, you listen to this list. You lynch one of those guys. This is where we begin towns comeback, and as mafia are flipped then we re-evaluate our town reads if they don't die at night.
in short plz lynch exo tomorrow
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to rainbows: i have no idea if vivax is mafia but i dont feel like hes tried to push town away from lynching mafia
he did vote cav with us d1 and exo did not Cavalinho (6): kushm4sta, kushm4sta, Koshi, ObviousOne, HaruRH, Rainbows, sinani206, Koshi, Vivax, Koshi
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oops
Cavalinho (6): kushm4sta, kushm4sta, Koshi, ObviousOne, HaruRH, Rainbows, sinani206, Koshi, Vivax, Koshi
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QED exo is mafia you can concede gg
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i think it's interesting that the claim was specifically for cop
like it was a mafia team that would be afraid of having a cop around, so a cc would guarantee a 1-1 trade in case cav was actually lynched d1. hrm. neither rainbows nor vivax would have been particularly worried about a cop check, but having an active person on the mafia team getting lynched and the possibility that another mafia member (exo) would be a good target for either a cop or a vigilante made it a good choice for claim.
im still not sure why people were so dubious of my claim but i could see having had someone claim doctor if three for three of the mafia team was active d1 (since as was noted, there's little in the way of just pretending to be unsuccessful with saves and even throwing in the "i totally saved him but it didnt work, must be a roleblocker and thats why im alive")
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long story short i can come up with too many reasons why exo is maf and not all that many between vivax and rainbows, even combined, other than mafia jesus.
reading the filters the other night between cav / poof / exo i am pretty sure i solidly blocked them together in my mind and at this point the tunnel is real (hey -- lylo is a free boat ride for three! now who should i take...)
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Good job team
Thanks to hosts, players, Kush for planting the seed of two power roles in my mind.
Thanks for not mislynch me
Thank modkills, bans, and boobies.
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Hustler takes doge coin now. It's the real deal.
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Vivax the sleeping behemoth, woken by M/LYLO
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Btw Sinani had a great D1 in terms of activity that was great to see. Gj!
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