EPTDetention Mafia - Page 9
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + - This game is pretty reminiscent of my first forum game. d3 mislynch on someone because they are barely playing. - I am pretty sure we would have lost if gobble had voted M_Z on d2 in a timely matter since slOosh was getting townread by people at the end of d2. Assuming a kill goes through tonight, we'll be 1 scum vs. 5 town tomorrow. I guess we should probably have blues roleclaim tomorrow since it should give us two confirmed town. Maybe this shouldn't happen if a blue dies tonight, I dunno, I'll think about this more later. If we mislynch tomorrow, you probably will want to no-lynch to get 1v2 instead of 1v3. Although day 3 was awful from my point of view, I did actually get a few reads I'll probably post as night ends. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
So you had two posts a minute apart- + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2014 11:31 HaruRH wrote: I agree with MZ lynch into palmar lynch. On June 01 2014 11:32 HaruRH wrote: In fact, I think we should lynch everyone on sloosh's 'death list'. Your position seemed to be: Post 1: We should lynch M_Z into Palmar Post 2: We should follow the list Since you've now commented on the list in more detail (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=52#1030), you seem to agree with me that Palmar wasn't on the list. So can you explain how these posts are consistent? Did you change your mind within that minute? Or what? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
At the time he made the list, he was the leading wagon by a significant margin with about two hours until the lynch. I don't think he could have foreseen that so many people would move to another wagon - even if his scum partner was on slOosh and moved and gobble voted, they still had to pull in more town than I think he could reasonably expect. So, rather than- This is the current list. However, sloosh probably intended the list to be like this: 1) MZ (lynched d3) - town 2) gobble (alive) 3) bunnies (killed n2) - town 4) fuba 5) amiko I'll also add that there's no guarantee he was planning to kill bunnies at that time - as M_Z was getting lynched, quite a few people thought slOosh was town as well. I'm not sure that would have changed just because M_Z had flipped. So, I think the people who voted slOosh wouldn't have been so townread, and bunnies may have stayed alive (especially given how she was barely playing). | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 04 2014 12:34 HaruRH wrote: Palmar is on my list, but fuba isn't. However, the strongest evidence to me is sloosh's list, which is even more strongly supported by these mislynches. Your list? Is your list people you think are town or people you think are scum? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
You think Palmar is more likely scum, but you need to check fuba because he was on slOosh's list? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 04 2014 14:07 HaruRH wrote: Your assumption is that he sent this sympathy post to avoid being lynched - but I assumed he posted like this to protect his scum friends. He was sure he was getting lynched before he posted this for sure.(lynch mz first-> town, thus we won't really bothet with gobble/fuba anymore) Well, I think I said exactly the opposite of that assumption. + Show Spoiler + On June 04 2014 12:34 Amiko wrote: Also, doesn't your post on slOosh's list basically fall apart if you consider that slOosh probably made that post expecting to be lynched himself? At the time he made the list, he was the leading wagon by a significant margin with about two hours until the lynch. I don't think he could have foreseen that so many people would move to another wagon - even if his scum partner was on slOosh and moved and gobble voted, they still had to pull in more town than I think he could reasonably expect. But I don't really think it's worth talking about this anyway. slOosh's contained scum if he wanted it to contain scum, and it contained town if he wanted it to contain town. It might contain some scum, it might contain all scum. I have no reason to think one of these is any likelier than the other - it is all just speculative guessing. If the argument is wrong, it's speculative in ways that aren't helpful. If the argument is right, it's speculative in ways that happen to be helpful. Let's talk about this point because I think it's more important- On June 04 2014 14:07 HaruRH wrote: It is right to assume that whoever pushed/sheeped the sloosh lynch and sheeped the MZ lynch is scum. Both palmar and fuba were doing this. First off, did you write the first sentence correctly? (scum = people who pushed/sheeped on slOosh & sheeped on M_Z) Second, why don't you include sqrt? Third, you realize that you also pushed/sheeped the M_Z lynch. If you are town, why is it scummy when Palmar/fuba did this but not scummy when you did it (as town)? Or is it scummy that you did it? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 04 2014 14:49 HaruRH wrote: I had my suspicions on MZ on d2 already. It was simply a matter of fact before I voted MZ. Palmar and fuba sheeped MZ push on the context of 'lazy' I guess I should word it as 'scum sheeped/pushed a sloosh lynch &sheeped a MZ lynch'. I keep getting confused by what you are saying, I can't tell if you are mixing up words. Could you respond to these by number? It just might reduce the chance I'll misunderstand you (1) Look at the green text. Did the people you name as scummy sheep/push a sloosh lynch? For Palmar, it seems to me he voted MZ and pushed that. How did he sheep/push a sloosh lynch? For fuba, I guess he initially sheeped sloosh, but he moved to MZ. For Slam, I guess he did sheep the slOosh lynch. It seems to me that you mostly townread people who sheep/push a slOosh lynch (see #2) (2) Why do you think scum sheeped/pushed a sloosh lynch (as you said in the green text)? This seems inconsistent because you have mostly townread people who have done that. Bunnies sheeped a sloosh lynch (confirmed town) M_Z sheeped a sloosh lynch (confirmed town) I pushed a sloosh lynch (practically confirmed town) mderg sheeped a sloosh lynch (I think you townread him?) If you look at Palmar/fuba, it seems to be that the people you think are town "sheeped/pushed a sloosh lynch" So I don't understand how you are using that as a heuristic. (3) Why do you townread mderg but scumread alakaslam? It seems like you are reading people primarily through voting patterns and through slOosh's death list. But aren't these players nearly identical in these two respects? (4) You didn't talk about sqrt (again) Why isn't sqrt scummy to you when he moved from slOosh to MZ? Why is fuba scummy for moving from slOosh to MZ but you / sqrt are not? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 04 2014 08:55 Palmar wrote: I'm not mafia. If I'm not mafia, who is mafia MZ. I will move this lynch off you if I can if your answer is good enough. Btw any thoughts on this post from Palmar? It seemed a little different to me. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
So, I’m not certain, but I think we probably have a watcher. (1) Slam claimed roleblock d1 This point falls through if Slam was lying, but go with me for a minute- If there is a watcher in the game, mafia wants to ensure they neither roleblock nor kill someone who is likely to be watched. Ask yourself: On day 1, Who do you feel presented as most towny / analytical / useful? These players would typically be good targets for scum to kill. As such, if there is a watcher, the watcher likely picked one of these players to observe. I think Slam has made a few points over the course of the game, but I don’t think I would put him as a likely kill N1, so if I were watcher I think it’s pretty unlikely I would target him. This means that Slam becomes a relatively safe person to roleblock – it’s pretty unlikely a watcher will target him, so you can probably roleblock him without getting caught. (2) Slam is an extra good roleblock target This point is actually pretty remote. I think it's true, but I have never seen scum pick their roleblock with this level of thought, so I feel like this point is probably irrelevant. + Show Spoiler + I think Slam makes an extra-good roleblock target if we have are in a cop/watcher setup. Slam is a viable N1 copcheck, so imagine if Watcher and cop both targeted Slam- the watcher would see two people visit (both the roleblocking mafia and the cop). This sort of ties the watcher’s hands—if the watcher want to reveal the information, it essentially trades both blue roles for one scum. That said, I honestly feel like this second point is a layer of thought I haven’t seen players consider when making their night kills or roleblock choices, so I feel this isn’t a strong point. (3) I wasn't roleblocked N2 I also think a watcher might be somewhat more likely because I was not roleblocked N2. I don't really know, I though mafia might think I was a cop/watcher who caught slOosh. Since I was not roleblocked, this suggests to me that maybe mafia feared that a watcher was targeting me. This point doesn’t rely on an assumption regarding Slam’s truthfulness, but it is still not great - scum probably thought it was more likely that the cop/watcher didn’t get info n1 (just based on probability and the play on d2). Anyway, the point also falls through if slOosh didn't deliver KP that night (a watcher couldn't have caught him if gobble did the kill). This is all speculative, but I like thinking through it... it makes me think it's a bit more likely that we have a watcher, but I could very well be wrong :D | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 04 2014 16:12 HaruRH wrote: (2) Not ALL who sheeped/pushed for a slosh lynch is scum, but they are definitely inside. The townread are used to exclude those who might be scum VS those who might not be, which in this case is you (which I initially did not townread) and mderg (which is a strong townread). Bunnies and MZ wasn't townread at all, they died town. I feel like you keep writing slOosh when you should be writing M_Z. This is the vote count: On June 01 2014 10:07 Blazinghand wrote: Meapak_Ziphh (5) - slOosh(5) - Amiko, Alakaslam, Sqrtofneg1(0) - I color coded the confirmed people. There is one scum left. I don't think there is any grounds to say that there has to be a scum inside the people who sheeped/pushed slOosh. So, how are you saying: Not ALL who sheeped/pushed for a slosh lynch is scum, but they are definitely inside. Especially when, from your post, your primary suspects are fuba and palmar, who were both on M_Z? [b]In short, either (a) There is a scum who sheeped/pushed slOosh (b) Fuba or Palmar is scum You are saying you think both of these things. But, it cannot be both, unless you think Fuba & Palmar pushed/sheeped slOosh (i.e. that Fuba & Palmar fit into (a)) I don't think they did sheep/push slOosh at all. Just in case we are confused, I think of "pushing" a lynch as supporting a lynch. I.e. "Amiko pushed the slOosh lynch d2." | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 04 2014 16:20 HaruRH wrote: Amiko: Who is your top 2 scum reads now? Why? Who is your top 2 town reads? Why? Who will you push on d4? I'll answer this as night is ending - I think I'll be alive tomorrow, it depends on how desperate scum is, what roles we have, and whether I get killed through WIFOM :3 But I think it is safest to answer it a moment before deadline. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 04 2014 21:32 Palmar wrote: They don't need to prove it, that's the point. If someone claims blue, he's confirmed town, unless he gets counterclaimed. If someone counterclaims, one of the two is mafia and we lynch one and then the other in lylo. You don't need any buffers etc. I disagree with part of this post but it is not helpful for me to explain why. I think we claim tomorrow or at deadline (probably no meaningful difference) for sure since we can't no lynch. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 01 2014 09:40 Alakaslam wrote: Although I am here, I am in Nd out (slOosh lynched) On June 01 2014 10:12 Alakaslam wrote:  Were you around at the time votes were swapping? I mean, you can lie and we can't confirm it, but I figure it's worth asking :3 Also FWIW I don't think you've spammed. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
<3 2ez | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Basically, were you around and not persuaded to go to slOosh? Or were you not really reading thread? You can lie easily so I can't put much weight in it, but I am still curious about your answer | ||
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