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On June 24 2014 17:01 HaruRH wrote:I got roleblocked last night. Probably because of this. Show nested quote +On June 24 2014 03:19 GlowingBear wrote:On June 24 2014 03:04 HaruRH wrote:On June 24 2014 02:15 GlowingBear wrote:
I think Haru is dangerous because he leads our reads. He ask questions to be answered and, therefore, changes the route of our reasoning. If he is scum, he has got us on his hands.
But I never saw any scum sign in his posts. I think he ask good questions that may help town. So, I think he is townie.  please don't think of me this way Haha don't worry, I have good feelings towards you. You sound greeny, even blueish to me. I just like to cover all possibilities. I'd be too naive if I didn't. And no, haru is no woman. Haruhi is a girl in the anime, haruhi suzumiya. Thus epishade is going she she she. I'll reply to all questions as soon as possible.
On June 25 2014 00:08 The_Templar wrote:I was jailed last night. Epishade's post seems to be coming under fire for ignoring some other possibilities that would require a very deceptive mafia. Show nested quote +On June 24 2014 23:24 GlowingBear wrote:On June 24 2014 14:35 Epishade wrote:
Ermm, I was really not expecting Token to get shot, of all people. I expected either myself, Haruhi, or Templar to die tbh, as we've all been townread for the majority of the game by most people. Token could have been a potential case if someone were to call him out, so I have a hard time rationalizing why mafia would shoot Token over someone more townie.
The only way I can see Token's shot being justified is if mafia thought he was on the right track and shot him to get rid of him, because objectively, that looked like a bad shot to me. You usually shoot people that have little chance of getting lynched for reading townie, but there seemed to be enough suspicion on Token (or at least, more than the three people I listed above) for me to think that that wasn't the reason he was shot.
There are a few people that Token scumreads over day 1, and I think that probably played a part in his death.
His scumreads:
JabberZerg (initially, then changed his mind to a townread at 4:00, which wouldn't have given mafia time to change their shot if JabberZerg wanted to keep Token alive for townreading him, assuming that Jabber is mafia)
meatpudding
Teemursu
Cats
His townreads:
Haruhi
Templar
me
Hobbit (only in his post at 4:00)
Fence reads:
Nydus
Dunno reads:
GlowBear
Other peoples
So I think the cases should probably be focused on people in his scum list at this point. I mean, he did say for people to look at me, GlowBear, and Nydus day 2 in his 4:02 post, but I'm not considering these specifically right now because they came too late to be able to influence mafia, and I'm only looking at the reasoning for shooting Token here over someone else.
He also asked me to post my reads on him, Cats, and meatpudding at this point, too, but I woke up too early today and am dead tired. I'll post my reads on everybody I have reads for sometime tomorrow after I wake up.
Night all. Your post strike me as odd. It's because the scenario you've brought isn't the only one possible. Possible scenarios are: 1) Tolkien was on the right track and asking the right questions, so it was better for Mafia to make him shut up. This is too simplistic, it would easily lead townies to lynch the right people. I don't think Mafia would do this. 2) Tolkien wasn't on the right track but being shot would lead town to misread other townies. This one seems more plausible to me. 3) My stupid mistake made them change their top townies change targets to someone who had more scumreads 4) Top townies are actually very good scums and they killed at random (I think this is too much) As I think (2) is more plausible, your post striked me as odd because you seem to push (1) as the only possible interpretation, leading townies to misreads and, therefore, to mislynchs. I'll keep an eye on you. I was going to reply something similar to this in response to Epishade's post. We can't assume that the mafia is trying to cover their tracks, as that doesn't cover half the possibilities. 1) If it's too simple, do you think 2 or 3 of JabberZerg, meatpudding, Teemursu, Cats are mafia? And where would you begin with that list? 2) This is, indeed, more likely, but again that doesn't lead us anywhere, except we can assume only one of those four, at most, are mafia. So if we lynch meatpudding and he flips red then it will be likely those other 3 are town. 3) I don't understand this one, can you clarify further? 4) Very unlikely, considering this is a newbie game. It's also possible that I was targeted by the mafia and Tolkien was killed by a vigilante. But that's somewhat unlikely as well. Show nested quote +On June 24 2014 21:49 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 24 2014 14:35 Epishade wrote:
Ermm, I was really not expecting Token to get shot, of all people. I expected either myself, Haruhi, or Templar to die tbh, as we've all been townread for the majority of the game by most people. Token could have been a potential case if someone were to call him out, so I have a hard time rationalizing why mafia would shoot Token over someone more townie.
The only way I can see Token's shot being justified is if mafia thought he was on the right track and shot him to get rid of him, because objectively, that looked like a bad shot to me. You usually shoot people that have little chance of getting lynched for reading townie, but there seemed to be enough suspicion on Token (or at least, more than the three people I listed above) for me to think that that wasn't the reason he was shot.
There are a few people that Token scumreads over day 1, and I think that probably played a part in his death.
His scumreads:
JabberZerg (initially, then changed his mind to a townread at 4:00, which wouldn't have given mafia time to change their shot if JabberZerg wanted to keep Token alive for townreading him, assuming that Jabber is mafia)
meatpudding
Teemursu
Cats
His townreads:
Haruhi
Templar
me
Hobbit (only in his post at 4:00)
Fence reads:
Nydus
Dunno reads:
GlowBear
Other peoples
So I think the cases should probably be focused on people in his scum list at this point. I mean, he did say for people to look at me, GlowBear, and Nydus day 2 in his 4:02 post, but I'm not considering these specifically right now because they came too late to be able to influence mafia, and I'm only looking at the reasoning for shooting Token here over someone else.
He also asked me to post my reads on him, Cats, and meatpudding at this point, too, but I woke up too early today and am dead tired. I'll post my reads on everybody I have reads for sometime tomorrow after I wake up.
Night all. First of all you're assuming that scum shot Tolkien, it's possible that scum got jailed/roleblocked and the vig shot Tolkien. Tolkien being shot because be suspected the right people makes little sense but lets analyze it a bit. If me or meatpudding are scum it would be pointless to shoot him for suspecting us because half the game does, if either of us were to shoot him it wouldn't change anything for us and it would actually be detrimental for us to do that as scum because Tolkien was looking scummy to a lot of people too and he would've been one of the easier people to push for a mislynch. seeing as him, me and meatpudding were the main lynch candidates today we wouldn't kill one of our most valid chances to escape a lynch. Teemu, well this one's simple. If he was going to shoot someone for being "on" to him it would've been meatpudding because meatpudding's been on him more. Why would he shoot Tolkien over meatpudding? Why would he shoot either of them for that matter? They were both suspicious to a lot of people and he wasn't. As for Jabber...i dunno. He seems to be on a few peoples radars if i remember correctly, it would make more sense to shoot one of them for being "on" to him as opposed to one of the lynch candidates. It really doesn't make sense for scum to shoot him especially for the reason you posted. Personally i think the less likely situation of scum's NK being blocked and a Vig targeting Tolkien is more likely. The bolded part is extremely good. A lot of people on that scum list were scummy to a lot of people, and would want to keep tolkien around to make sure he would get attention from his somewhat aggressive MM lynch (I thought this made him more townish to me at the end), which was scummy to a lot of people. So they have no reason to bother killing him. Show nested quote +On June 24 2014 22:12 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 24 2014 22:04 Teemursu wrote:
From an hour to three hours, generally. Day is from 15 to 30 minutes and night is maybe 5 minutes?
Could you instead post and reference my analysis on day 1?
I'll probably start reading and answering in about three hours. Thank you. That means you townreading Templar so quickly isn't scummy. I'll be looking through your and everyone else's filters a bit later (i started looking through your filter yesterday and that's what made me ask meatpudding all those questions). I just came in to check the thread after waking up, effort will be applied in...lets say 3-4 hours. I thought I said at the beginning that video mafia went pretty quickly and making reads this early was normal there. I'm still tired and will be reading more into these things later, but I am applying for a job this afternoon and won't have a ton of time like I usually do.
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So I'm trying to work it out but I think jailer claiming to set the story straight might be good. Also if we don't have a jailer Haru is obviously mafia. (I think very unlikely)
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On July 04 2014 10:55 Tehpoofter wrote:
So I'm trying to work it out but I think jailer claiming to set the story straight might be good. Also if we don't have a jailer Haru is obviously mafia. (I think very unlikely)
Very likely. 5 people left. 2 VT, 1 jailer, 1 cop, 1 mafia? Nah.
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Maybe I doubt there is 2 mafia but I like to live on the safe side.
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On July 03 2014 21:08 HaruRH wrote:
Jailed again.
Stop jailing me jailer. Jail your most suspected person next.
I sent action to check you at night, but my check didn't go through since I was jailed.
I think jailer might have hit scum on d2. Templar (scum) claimed jail on d1 and nothing happened d2. Jailer could have jailed the mafia rb and since no rb went through, rb was hesitant to claim jail as it would expose him.
Unlikely. Jailer would've started a hard push after noticing that. Couldn't see that.
More than this: tehpoofter and mtamburini started the game replacing people. Therefore, only I, Hobbitus and you could be jailers. I am not and Hobbitus claim she isn't. You can't be a cop and jailer at the same time.
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On July 04 2014 11:01 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2014 10:55 Tehpoofter wrote:
So I'm trying to work it out but I think jailer claiming to set the story straight might be good. Also if we don't have a jailer Haru is obviously mafia. (I think very unlikely) Very likely. 5 people left. 2 VT, 1 jailer, 1 cop, 1 mafia? Nah.
Well technically 1 rb, 1 jailer, 1 cop, and either 1vt/1 mafia or 2 mafia lol
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So in order for Haru to not have lied at some point, I must be the only VT.
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On July 04 2014 11:32 Hobbitus wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2014 11:01 GlowingBear wrote:On July 04 2014 10:55 Tehpoofter wrote:
So I'm trying to work it out but I think jailer claiming to set the story straight might be good. Also if we don't have a jailer Haru is obviously mafia. (I think very unlikely) Very likely. 5 people left. 2 VT, 1 jailer, 1 cop, 1 mafia? Nah. Well technically 1 rb, 1 jailer, 1 cop, and either 1vt/1 mafia or 2 mafia lol
The rb and jailer are probably not aligned. ITs more like a town jailer and a mafia rb.
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On July 04 2014 11:37 Hobbitus wrote:
So in order for Haru to not have lied at some point, I must be the only VT.
it could be Haru Cop then one of us jailer 1 mafia and the other 2 Vt.
I'm VT as well Jailer just needs to claim imo.
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Ohh I forgot rb could be either alignment. And didn't realize jailer could be too, just assumed bc it's Scotty.
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Bear, are you claiming vt as well?
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On July 04 2014 11:02 Tehpoofter wrote:
Maybe I doubt there is 2 mafia but I like to live on the safe side.
Im like 95% sure there is one left, here is why. On day 3 a mafia couldve came off of anybody and won the game by lynching Epi.
There is one left.
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On July 04 2014 11:57 Hobbitus wrote:
Ohh I forgot rb could be either alignment. And didn't realize jailer could be too, just assumed bc it's Scotty.
Jailor can be mafia sided?
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On July 04 2014 12:08 mtamburini wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2014 11:57 Hobbitus wrote:
Ohh I forgot rb could be either alignment. And didn't realize jailer could be too, just assumed bc it's Scotty. Jailor can be mafia sided?
Maybe but probably unlikely.
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It cannot be mafia sides as the roles are listed on the OP.
Hobbitus, I'm claiming VT
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Wait a minute. There was no jailing day3?
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Okay so self-claimed:
Hobbitus-vt
Bear-vt
Poof-vt
Haru-cop
Tam?
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On July 04 2014 12:26 GlowingBear wrote:
Wait a minute. There was no jailing day3?
Say the night not the day or it gets confusing.
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Vote Count – Day 5
Not voting (5): Tribbles
Currently, no one is set to be lynched.
As a reminder for resolving ties - a player becomes the new lynch target when that player has more votes than anyone else.
Please contact the mods if the vote count is incorrect. Thank you!
Day 5 will end in (04:00 GMT (+00:00)).
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EPT
