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On June 28 2014 01:04 The_Templar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 23:09 HaruRH wrote:On June 26 2014 10:56 GlowingBear wrote:On June 26 2014 10:44 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 26 2014 10:09 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 26 2014 09:33 jabberwockzerg wrote:On June 26 2014 09:18 The_Templar wrote:K, wrote a case in about 7 minutes on jabberzerg. Looking at his very thin filter, I now have a very scummy read on him. On June 23 2014 04:01 jabberwockzerg wrote:
Hey guys, I'm out for most of the day, but I'll try to keep up on my phone, and I'll be home for the last three hours or so to read through all the filters and make my final vote.
I just want to make a quick vote now in case something happens I won't get modkilled.
##Vote: meatpudding This isn't particularly scummy. Not all of us have hours upon hours to post in this thread and he could have been later, and votes aren't permanent. I think his vote on meatpudding was a bit questionable since he seems to have had a town read on him but he was probably following the general trend of the town (I think there were 4 votes at that point, but it could be 3) due to lack of time. That could be a newbie fear of wanting to not look suspicious after being gone for ~6 hours and following town. But, is he really going to play an entire game of mafia without having any time? Please. In the battle of the meats, he takes a neutral stance immediately: On June 23 2014 10:53 jabberwockzerg wrote:On June 23 2014 10:48 meatpudding wrote:
Back. I'e reading the thread now. If you're voting Mystery or me, then I don't really have a choice anyway. But I'll flesh out my reads anyway. I'm very interested in what you have to say, I'm undecided about which meat to vote for, and you posting at all is a good sign And then when I make a point about MM not posting, he jumps on it and says he's suspecting him more. On June 23 2014 11:10 jabberwockzerg wrote:On June 23 2014 10:57 The_Templar wrote:
Wow, is MysteryMeat not defending himself at all right now? Wtf? He even told Scott to fight to the end if he was town... Wow interesting. I'd really love to hear a lot from both the meats, but right now the strongest case is MM And then: On June 23 2014 11:58 jabberwockzerg wrote:On June 23 2014 11:56 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
im not going to share my thought process on one person. deal with it... You might not like how I'm gonna deal with it ##Vote: MysteryMeat1 HAHA so cliche Day 2: On June 25 2014 12:41 jabberwockzerg wrote:
I am not a girl Really? The day is half over and you feel the need to make that your first post of the day? He continues to be as neutral as possible until he can latch onto an opinion. On June 25 2014 13:00 jabberwockzerg wrote:
I think Nydus's GB vote is interesting.
For me it just boils down to whether or not we believe his pressure explanation.
I'm not sure I do, but maybe some video mafia players can explain if that sort of play is common over there. "I don't know, but someone who does stuff that I've never done will figure it out for me". On June 25 2014 13:48 jabberwockzerg wrote:On June 25 2014 13:37 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:
Teemursu, could you lay out your case against meatpudding in full without quoting posts where you've already explained why you're voting for him? As far as i can tell your case against him is mostly based around you not liking his OMGUS of you (although the point you raised about him townreading me and scumreading Haru for basically doing the same thing is interesting) and i really need to hear the case put forward in a different way so i can better understand it. I'd love to see this as well On June 26 2014 08:30 jabberwockzerg wrote:I'm liking this Nydus vote. His random pressure vote just seems a little off to me Not that pressure votes are scummy, but it's better to be clear with the town that that is what your doing, and On June 25 2014 11:28 NydusHerMain wrote:
##Vote: GlowingBear
towny feel isn't good enough for me, clearly mafia "isn't good enough for me, clearly mafia" Basically he's just agreeing with people without offering an opinion at this point. On June 26 2014 09:09 jabberwockzerg wrote:On June 26 2014 09:06 Epishade wrote:@Cats, My recent interactions with him, and his replies to me where he dismisses everything I say as wifom is one thing. I replied back here. On June 26 2014 06:48 Epishade wrote:
[quote]
Are you serious? You actually think all of the townreading that Nydus has been doing to me is irrelevant and wifom? Why even bother thinking about anything in this game then, since surely if thinking about how logical plays work and how you would expect others to act is wifom, then everything else is then, right? We should just not even bother trying to read people, since everything everyone says and does is wifom, right?
[quote]
[quote]
I took this to mean you were connecting me as potential mafia scum with Nydus, as you said this takes me, referring to your previous argument about Nydus and his views about me. I thought you were drawing a connection between us two as scum by doing that, which is why I assumed you thought we both were scum. Teemursu was on Token's scumlist, which is my personal opinion as a contributing factor to why Token died. I think Teemursu's being incredibly nitpicky against meatpudding too, trying to scumread him for trivial details in meatpudding's posts. That to me is a little scummy. On June 23 2014 22:02 Teemursu wrote:
[quote]
Odd. It feels like you're hiding something and not wanting to make up your mind about someone.
You say you can't call Tolkien scum based on that, but you agree with me on Tolkien being scum, and you put him into your potential scum list? Just what is this supposed to mean, anyways? You think him not finding something alignment indicative (him saying he can't find Cats or Token scum based on something) means he's hiding something? It's not just against meatpudding though. Here Teemursu agrees with Poof that because I didn't have hard reads on people and labeled them as "townlean" instead of town that that somehow makes me scummy... On June 25 2014 07:28 Teemursu wrote:
[quote]
This is one of the reasons why I have been reading him as "trying hard to sound towny".
IMHO, He's continued the same kind of way of talking by switching on the MM1 bandwagon by calling MeatPudding a misguided townie, while MeatPudding has in my opinion had even more bad & inconsistent logic.
It's Teemursu's incredible nitpickyness that I find to be a trait of scum. I will say that my early read on Teemursu was based on some of his word choice, too though. So call me a hypocrite if you must or feel free to point out the contradiction. That's just how I feel. Ok, you know what. I'm just sick of writing so much and reading through filters. I have no idea how accurate my reads are and it sucks to know that all this could very likely end up untrue, which I'm sure it might be. Fuck it, I'm voting for JabberZerg. I can't tell who to vote for anymore and she's been flying under the radar for too long now. ##Vote: JabberZergBuahahahahaha!!!! sdea fgsdafn jd still not a girl Is that really important? How about you focus on the issue? ##Unvote
##Vote: jabberwockzergOut of time but after this next WCS series I'll write something up on Epishade, who's acting sort of strangely, and Nydus, who is… improving a bit maybe? Not sure… I've been noncommittal and shitty and lurky Can't seem to focus on this game as much as I should be. wouldn't fault anyone for voting me BUT there is so little information to be gained from my flip that it will be more useful to leave me kicking around for at least another day and see what happens from there I'll try harder, stop daydrinking, etc. If you're scum i don't care how little information we get from lynching you. Convince us not to vote for you now, don't just say "Yeah guys i'll start doing stuff after flip...promise" You can start by posting what info, according to you, we would get from your flip and then you can answer this: On June 26 2014 09:01 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 26 2014 08:55 jabberwockzerg wrote:On June 26 2014 08:49 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 22 2014 16:20 jabberwockzerg wrote:
yeah, pudding's a townlean
I'd be most comfortable with a tolkien vote, but I want him to read my post about scott and react to it, defend his wagon.
I'll agree with a fence on KittyCats, he's asking questions, but I'm noticing a lack of content. On June 23 2014 10:53 jabberwockzerg wrote:On June 23 2014 10:48 meatpudding wrote:
Back. I'e reading the thread now. If you're voting Mystery or me, then I don't really have a choice anyway. But I'll flesh out my reads anyway. I'm very interested in what you have to say, I'm undecided about which meat to vote for, and you posting at all is a good sign Why was pudding a townlean for you at the time and what led you to change your mind and think that he might be a good lynch at the end of the day? It was his silence after coming under heavy suspicion So him possibly being away from his computer and not being able to respond to the things being said against him immediately was what led you to disregard your townread of him and seriously consider his lynch? Was there anything else he did at the time that struck you as scummy? Also: On June 26 2014 08:43 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 26 2014 08:30 jabberwockzerg wrote:I'm liking this Nydus vote. His random pressure vote just seems a little off to me Not that pressure votes are scummy, but it's better to be clear with the town that that is what your doing, and On June 25 2014 11:28 NydusHerMain wrote:
##Vote: GlowingBear
towny feel isn't good enough for me, clearly mafia "isn't good enough for me, clearly mafia" I want you to give a more detailed reason than that to jump on the Nydus wagon. Saying what he's doing isn't necessarily scummy but voting for him because it seemed "off" isn't good enough. Jabber your silence after coming under heavy suspicion is incredibly scummy, in fact i think it's enough to sway my vote.  ##Vote: Jabberwockzerg Phew. Too much confusion. Now that I believe we could be in a town VS town scenario, and after jabb tried to "hide" on my argument that flips are really important... I'm definitive now. ##Unvote
##Vote: Jabberwockzerg Also, I don't see why you scumread Templar when you did the exact same thing. You did not change wagons even after you saw the arguments for a nydus lynch and a epi lynch. On June 27 2014 12:59 GlowingBear wrote:
4 townies died. Of course, 1 modkill and 1 nightkill. But still, ALL OF THEM were contradictory.
Which means that being contradictory isn't necessary a scum signal. It may help identify one, but it's secondary.
If we've lost so many by attacking their contradictory posts, what do we have here? A very consistent Mafia, that is. A Mafia who is well connected and using the information they have to lead the mislynches.
To find the Mafia in this game we must not search for people being inconsistent in their posts. We have to search for people that are not compromising themselves in their votes, in their analysis. People that are not raising flags but following town misreads so they will win a mislynch. They contribute for the mislynch but they do not compromise themselves by doing so.
Nope. Was kotc contradictory? Was nydus contradictory? (If yes, in what sense?) The only contradictory lynch that could have happened d2 was epi's lynch. but it did not follow through. So you can identify that mafia was the people who started and led the mislynches. Give me a list of people who started the mislynches. 1) Why does the mafia start the mislynches? You don't explain this at all, only that the lynches aren't necessarily contradictory. 2) Can't you make your own list? Go ahead and do it, it might help your point better than if GlowingBear (who disagrees with you at this point) did it, so why bother asking for one? It's not terribly difficult or time-consuming either.
1) Mafia probably started the mislynched (like this one) so that they could get away with responsibility.
2) My list would be something like my scumread list. After all, vote analysis affects it.
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On June 28 2014 04:12 Epishade wrote:
Well, I didn't really have much to say during Night 2. Still don't really. Cats seemed like an objectively good shot, to me, unlike Token, which nobody else seems to care about why Token was shot.
I really don't feel like I have much to add now. Nobody but me thinks Teemursu is scummy, so I guess arguing for that is a lost cause. Whatever...
If anybody cared to want to know my current scumreads, I could only tell you who I think is mafia, but I really have nothing to back that up with. Just hunches right now.
Hobbit seems a little suspicious to me, but nothing to really go on for him, and I don't feel like filter diving anymore.
mtamburini, I kind of change my mind right now. I think he's just trolling, and I was with Haruhi for lynching him over that, when it's not exactly the right move to make, as much as I think he deserves my vote.
Teemursu I haven't changed.
Poof I also think may be scum, for finding things that I'd do regardless of my alignment alignment indicative, such as caring how others perceive my posts and taking time to word my posts carefully.
meatpudding I've never seen as clear town, and, though I've never seen him as clear scum either, I think he has the possibility to go either way. His lynch would probably give the most information (outside of maybe Haruhi or Teemursu imo) if he came up scum, so I wouldn't mind voting for meatpudding at this point. He was on Token's scumlist too, which is partially what I've been relying on this whole game for forming my opinion.
Everybody else except Templar, idk about. I still think Templar is town. Also maybe GlowBear.
##Vote: meatpudding
so what do you intend to do from now on? Lurk?
Answer my 2 questions.
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On June 28 2014 05:50 Epishade wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2014 04:30 HaruRH wrote:On June 28 2014 04:12 Epishade wrote:
Well, I didn't really have much to say during Night 2. Still don't really. Cats seemed like an objectively good shot, to me, unlike Token, which nobody else seems to care about why Token was shot.
I really don't feel like I have much to add now. Nobody but me thinks Teemursu is scummy, so I guess arguing for that is a lost cause. Whatever...
If anybody cared to want to know my current scumreads, I could only tell you who I think is mafia, but I really have nothing to back that up with. Just hunches right now.
Hobbit seems a little suspicious to me, but nothing to really go on for him, and I don't feel like filter diving anymore.
mtamburini, I kind of change my mind right now. I think he's just trolling, and I was with Haruhi for lynching him over that, when it's not exactly the right move to make, as much as I think he deserves my vote.
Teemursu I haven't changed.
Poof I also think may be scum, for finding things that I'd do regardless of my alignment alignment indicative, such as caring how others perceive my posts and taking time to word my posts carefully.
meatpudding I've never seen as clear town, and, though I've never seen him as clear scum either, I think he has the possibility to go either way. His lynch would probably give the most information (outside of maybe Haruhi or Teemursu imo) if he came up scum, so I wouldn't mind voting for meatpudding at this point. He was on Token's scumlist too, which is partially what I've been relying on this whole game for forming my opinion.
Everybody else except Templar, idk about. I still think Templar is town. Also maybe GlowBear.
##Vote: meatpudding so what do you intend to do from now on? Lurk?Answer my 2 questions. More than usual, yeah. Nobody seemed to care about my points made about Token's death, Poof's claim that I have a scummy mindset because I generally think about how people will view my posts before I post, or Teemursu's dismissal of just about everything I say,. Everything I brought up was just discarded as wifom, which I still thought should be taken into account for. If you're going to treat everything as wifom, why even bother conversing with each other, when surely a mafia could say anything to sound townie and someone could dismiss that as wifom, too. If I have something to say, I'll say it, but don't expect me to do anymore digging, as much or as little as I may have been doing this game. I answered your question about my current reads right now up above. Though as for Hobbit and Glowbear, I change my mind on Hobbit right now. I reread what he said last night. I think they're both town. Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 23:28 Hobbitus wrote:
Why would scum push so hard, so obviously, and at the same exact time? I decided to push Templar today, if bear does the same exact thing, it makes no difference to me.
This is my first game, I am changing my reads, even completely flipping my opinion on people as I figure out what's going on. All I know is not a single scum has been lynched yet, and after mm and Tolkien died I had to seriously reconsider what I thought made someone scummy. That change my opinion on cats to town, which was confirmed last night. I also didn't really see the case on nydus (but was behind so I didn't know if I missed something major). Before that I had been wrong about everyone, so it seems my new method of thinking is more accurate. Makes sense to me. Is town. No reason for mafia to bother switching votes and changing opinions. Oh wait, that's wifom...can't take that into account... + Show Spoiler +For clarity, I do consider Hobbit town right now. Screw wifom.
You know this is potentially lylo right
If there are 4 maf, then its 5/4. A ML would change it to 4/4 and 3/4. Scum wins.
If there are 3 maf, then its 6/3. A ML would change it to 5/3 and 4/3. 1 last day left.
This could be your last day to make the case. Bring it up and let's discuss this properly. Ignore all previous comments about wifom.
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And I'm not letting you lurk.
1) why is cats an objectively better shot?
2) why is a tolkien shot bad? Who could be responsible and why?
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On June 28 2014 11:08 Hobbitus wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 23:51 HaruRH wrote:Look here. Even if your wagon on Templar was right, epishade was allowed to basically afk past n2 and post a useless post. On June 26 2014 14:43 Epishade wrote:
I'm all for lynching mtamburini after that vote. I don't know about you, but for me, who still scumreads epishade, I don't think we should neglect him. I want epishade to start talking right away. ##Vote: Epishade Show nested quote +On June 28 2014 05:56 HaruRH wrote:
You know this is potentially lylo right
If there are 4 maf, then its 5/4. A ML would change it to 4/4 and 3/4. Scum wins.
If there are 3 maf, then its 6/3. A ML would change it to 5/3 and 4/3. 1 last day left.
This could be your last day to make the case. Bring it up and let's discuss this properly. Ignore all previous comments about wifom. "Yeah, Templar might be scum but let's vote for a lurker like we did every mislynch even though it might be lylo."
"Lets ignore the fact that pressure votes exist and all votes are final"
Hey meatpudding, your read on me is horrible. So im scumread for thinking vigi exists, and then apparently I'm 'misdirecting' town? Great analysis there. I want you to re-read all the things I've said out loud and see if they make sense. If they still don't, then I'm giving up on you.
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On June 28 2014 11:16 Hobbitus wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2014 00:29 HaruRH wrote:On June 28 2014 00:08 Hobbitus wrote:On June 28 2014 00:03 HaruRH wrote:
Questions for everyone:
1) What do you think of this glowingbear-hobbitus interaction going on?
2) What are your updated reads?
I'll answer my own question. I find glowingbear-hobbitus's interaction weird. It almost feels like a scum buddied up with a town and is attempting to misdirect town into lynching all their own top towns. This is what I think.
My updated reads:
poofter
teemu
templar
glowingbear
hobbitus
mtam
meatpudding
epishade
At this point, does mafia need to get town to lynch their top towns? No. They can continue the strategy they've had all game of picking off people who were on the fence, making them seem scummy for bad town play. If I were mafia what would be the point of switching up my play now and attacking the towniest townies? That would be totally stupid. Why not. This is the perfect chance to mislynch another town. ... Are you serious? Mafia are careful, WHY would they switch up their game if their strategy was working???
Exactly. Why switch up when they can lurk past this game?
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No seriously hobbitus. You're not making any sense now. I suspect you're just dumping all you can because this could be lylo. Trying to make a play? Trying to let potential scum lurk? Instantly flipping all your townreads and expect everyone to do the same? Wifom the shit out of everyone? You're misdirecting town so bad, if templar flips town, both you and glowingbear are getting the axe. But of course, this could already be lylo and lynching templar would win you the game.
##Unvote
##Vote: Hobbitus
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I have filter dived hobbitus properly (I made sure to re-read all posts and link them to context, such as what he was replying to, when was it and what was he thinking at that time). I came up with a few damning evidence. At least, for me.
1)Rapid change of tone and willingness to throw away their image
At the beginning, hobbitus was playing very passive with no strong pushes at all. He was mainly interested to read people's response and come up with ideas, then go with the general flow. He has never strayed away from the general lynch targets (D1, MM (lynched->town)) (D2, epishade ->not lynched). His reasoning have also been very politically correct thus far. (Nothing that seems scummy at all, answers all questions properly)
+ Show Spoiler +On June 24 2014 07:26 Hobbitus wrote:Bear, I am leaning slightly town on you. I can follow the logic of your arguments and you put a decent amount of effort into your reads, which is a good start. Well, that precisely, it's a start. You were a little later to the game than the rest of us, so I need more time/posts to get a stronger read. I think this is your most interesting post so far: Show nested quote + I think Haru is dangerous because he leads our reads. He ask questions to be answered and, therefore, changes the route of our reasoning. If he is scum, he has got us on his hands.
But I never saw any scum sign in his posts. I think he ask good questions that may help town. So, I think he is townie. I read Haru as town as well, but I like that you are still thinking of him even when he is in your town pile. On June 24 2014 08:17 Hobbitus wrote:Just to throw it out there, my current reads: Lord Tolkien-scummy Jabberwockzerg-potential scum Just talk more plz HaruRH-towny I like this post a lot Show nested quote + So, there's tons of information to get from letting meatpudding get lynched, but there's little info for MM getting lynched? Feels like a soft defense by quickly dispelling the thought of gathering info from MM mislynch. why do you think this? Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 22:14 HaruRH wrote:
EBWOP:
Because if you read teemu as scum, you cannot read tolkien as scum. Both can't be scum at the same time. It doesn't make sense. Thekingofthecats-scummy NydusHerMain-on the fence GlowingBear-slightly towny Meatpudding-on the fence leaning scum for trying to predict votes, thanks for pointing that out bear leaning town for this Show nested quote + I certainly don't get what Tolkien and MM have to do with one another, and Tolkien is taking steps as far away from him as possible. Teemursu-potential scum Calls tolkien out but not for the scummiest things tolkien does Epishade-towny The_Templar-towny On June 23 2014 11:31 Hobbitus wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 11:21 MysteryMeat1 wrote:On June 23 2014 11:02 Hobbitus wrote:
MM is so bad, and the case against him is so strong it's actually ludicrous, which is why I'm entertaining that idea at all. I don't want to believe anyone is that terrible. I find this actually quite amusing, you don't agree with my reads, and call me bad which is fine. But if we want to talk about past games, then in mine i successfully predicted the roleblocker, got town to lynch him ,and pinged out the other 3 mafia. I'm a town you don't want to lynch d1, unless your mafia. then go ahead and lynch me. Not to be rude, but I don't really care about your past games. The options I see for you are: 1. you are town and made a series of bad mistakes 2. you are town and made a series of bad mistakes which scum are using to their advantage 3. you are mafia and made a series of bad mistakes 4. you are mafia and being bussed to make other players look good If 1 is true, I think you'd be more of a hindrance than an asset to town for the rest of the game If 2 is true, at least I have some leads for D2 scum If 3 is true, you're scum, which is all the matters in the end If 4 is true, you are scum, which is fantastic, and I might be able to use you to figure out other scum In any of those four cases, I don't mind you getting lynched On June 25 2014 19:21 Hobbitus wrote:
Actually, can anyone else who finds teemu suspicious make a case on him? I'll do it myself if I have time but I just don't know if I will today :/ On June 27 2014 09:50 Hobbitus wrote:
Uhh, where did my text go??
I said, fun fact: Templar wasn't voted either day also
If you want to examine us both D3 that might be a good idea, since we haven't been in the spotlight at all. PS: Notice the use of words 'might', 'quite', 'think', which indicates passivity
Will hobbitus hard push anyone? you asked. Well, on n2, on a flip of a switch, hobbitus instantly turned into aggressive|hobbitus, with nearly 0 uses of such passive tones. He turned aggressive overnight, over a span of an hour, because of a slight suspicion of Templar that turned into a full blown 'case'. Not only hobbitus, but glowingbear as well. This is generally not a good sign, since they are not consistent with their own image and are willing to blow their towny image in exchange for a potential mislynch. 'Why would that be a threat? If Templar flips green, we can lynch them both, right?' My answer is that today might potentially be the last day, because of how we don't know the scum count. If there are 4 scum, we have 5 town left and today would be the final day. Their image will not matter as long as they get the last town lynched. If there are 3 scum, we have 6 town left and today will not be the final day, and all mislynches will cause tons of havoc given how much they are pushing right now. Therefore, I came up with 2 conclusion: 1) both hobbitus and glowingbear are scum because both showed that they are willing to 'flip their reads altogether' just to lynch today. 2) Either one of hobbitus or glowingbear is the scum, and one of them is leading the Templar train while the other is hoodwinked into following him. The third option exists, which is that 3) They are masons and agreed to push together, but I highly doubt this is the answer.
2) General lack of empathy for town
This is even more apparent when he turned into aggressive|hobbitus.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 28 2014 11:28 Hobbitus wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2014 01:26 The_Templar wrote:On June 27 2014 23:28 Hobbitus wrote:
Why would scum push so hard, so obviously, and at the same exact time? (1) I decided to push Templar today, if bear does the same exact thing, it makes no difference to me. (2)
This is my first game, I am changing my reads, even completely flipping my opinion on people as I figure out what's going on. All I know is not a single scum has been lynched yet, and after mm and Tolkien died I had to seriously reconsider what I thought made someone scummy. (3) That change my opinion on cats to town, which was confirmed last night. (4) I also didn't really see the case on nydus (but was behind so I didn't know if I missed something major). Before that I had been wrong about everyone, so it seems my new method of thinking is more accurate. (5) (1) Because it's the last thing anyone following the current trend would expect. And you were extremely quiet along with GlowingBear. (2) Sure it doesn't, that's why GlowingBear made sure to hint you two were the same alignment. (3) And you very conveniently chose the exact opposite of the lynched behaviors. (4) That worked out pretty well. You changed your opinion of cats to town right before he died, and look! he's town! (5) It's accurate because a lot of your reasoning for your new methods was based on the fact you had been wrong about everyone…? Am I missing something here? 1. Maybe you haven't noticed but town is fucked. Scum has no reason to risk anything with an "against the grain" play. 2. What? I have no control over what he says? 3-5. What are you even talking about? I am not a total moron, if I realize something is not working for me, I try something new. Cats flipping town fits with my new way of thinking. Does that mean I'm 100% right about everyone? No, but at least I have a theory about how scum is playing that makes sense now.
Definitely, this is not a major point and can easily be disputed, but for someone like hobbitus, who I read as flowing with town agenda for the past few days, this is not a good read.
3) Flipping reads
Granted, this is another disputable point, but surprisingly enough, most scum flips their read during the last day. For example, in TL Order Mafia, all the scum flipped their reads almost immediately during the lylo (I know we shouldn't be talking about other games, sorry!). This could be explained by the fact that most people are exhausted with the game by now (D3~D5 is where people start being exhausted with games. Likewise, I am exhausted and this is my final big push) and people are more susceptible to any strong reads thrown at them. They are willing to end the game quick, even if it means a loss. However, his flips are backed up with last minute reasonings that doesn't mix well with me.
+ Show Spoiler +his reads on N1 On June 24 2014 08:17 Hobbitus wrote:Just to throw it out there, my current reads: Lord Tolkien-scummy Jabberwockzerg-potential scum Just talk more plz HaruRH-towny I like this post a lot Show nested quote + So, there's tons of information to get from letting meatpudding get lynched, but there's little info for MM getting lynched? Feels like a soft defense by quickly dispelling the thought of gathering info from MM mislynch. why do you think this? Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 22:14 HaruRH wrote:
EBWOP:
Because if you read teemu as scum, you cannot read tolkien as scum. Both can't be scum at the same time. It doesn't make sense. Thekingofthecats-scummy NydusHerMain-on the fence GlowingBear-slightly towny Meatpudding-on the fence leaning scum for trying to predict votes, thanks for pointing that out bear leaning town for this Show nested quote + I certainly don't get what Tolkien and MM have to do with one another, and Tolkien is taking steps as far away from him as possible. Teemursu-potential scum Calls tolkien out but not for the scummiest things tolkien does Epishade-towny The_Templar-towny D2 On June 25 2014 07:44 Hobbitus wrote:
templar
Town: haru
Wolfy: kotc
OUTTED WOLF: jabber
Everyone else I have no idea rn, like I said, after the flips I really feel I need to reevaluate.
N2 On June 27 2014 12:56 Hobbitus wrote:
Summary post:
Reads (and stuff I'm thinking about atm)
HaruRH-scum (says tolkien was shot bc on to mafia-obvious answer)
Thekingofthecats-town (gets caught up in the details)
GlowingBear-town (adorable but in that clueless animal way) (could be wrong, suspicious about blue role posts/not changing his vote last night)
Meatpudding-town (suspect both wagons D1 were town, never had convincing case against)
Epishade-scum (see post)
mtamburini-town (too annoying to be scum)
The_Templar-scum (see post) (also, really conscious of how posts sound when they don't even sound scummy/clarifying when he doesn't need to etc/not changing his vote last night)
Teemu-town (for actions during D2 EOD, consolidation of votes etc)
What I think we should focus on D3:
-why was Tolkien shot? (My guess is that it had something to do with mp, and that it was probably mafia who killed him)
-take a look at the whole bear calling haru blue and then haru being roleblocked thing, mafia shouldn't roleblock based on the opinion of one townie.
-possibility: if bear, templar and epi are scum, it could explain why templar/bear never changed their vote last night. didn't want epi to get lynched and yet knew the case on nydus was really stupid Reasons for flip: Templar: On June 27 2014 10:50 Hobbitus wrote:So he originally voted on mp with a scum read on him, and a "slight town" read on MM. Then, after MM was being weird MM: Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 10:57 The_Templar wrote:
Wow, is MysteryMeat not defending himself at all right now? Wtf? He even told Scott to fight to the end if he was town... I don't like this. MM defending or not defending himself doesn't mean anything, neither mafia nor town want to be lynched. And yet that's somehow enough to get him to change his vote to MM. And the bit about Scott... I dunno, that sounds like a very contrived argument to me. MM said scott should keep fighting to the end so town would win, not that fighting to the end MADE scott town, I thought that was fairly obvious. Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 11:34 The_Templar wrote:On June 23 2014 11:18 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
Templar also declares meatPudding as scum, and says im slightly town. nothing else had been posted by either of us, and he's willing to vote on me. Says there is no way i could be town here and then votes on me. I'd say at least one of the mafia are going to be between tolkien,cats,templar. If we are lucky then two of them would be there. They have been pushing on different people, but never pushed on each other. My vote was a knee-jerk reaction to your actions initially contradicting your post about scott and was also a pressure post, shifting the majority from pudding back to you. I didn't mean to say that you could not possibly be town, but not responding for so long is something a town just wouldn't do in normal conditions. You didn't react, now you have, and since your read makes sense now, I'm switching back to the other meat. This is the kind of non confrontational thing I'm talking about. At this point in the day, it was unclear which meat was going to get lynched, so if templar were scum he wouldn't want to piss off either of them and risk a case on him D2. Read his filter, he then goes through an awkward series of editing posts trying to reconcile his town read on MM with voting him Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 11:38 The_Templar wrote:On June 23 2014 11:38 The_Templar wrote:
Also, my general opinion of mysterymeat hadn't changed from my initial post where I said he was slightly town, but I over-reacted to his complete and total lack of defense (I also thought he had given up). edit: Yeah I said he couldn't be town. That was wrong of me, I should have said he couldn't be town since he wasn't defending at all, but he clearly is now. So this is all a bit weird, and as soon as I say something to him about it, HE CHANGES HIS VOTE BACK TO MM. Read the entire quote below: Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 12:06 The_Templar wrote:On June 23 2014 12:04 The_Templar wrote:On June 23 2014 11:59 Hobbitus wrote:Templar, this King:
As its been pointed out by a few people, of my glaring inconsitancy by condeming cats for lynching regardless of alignment. I also don't like how tolkien said it. Missed the sentence in his post where he said it. Unlike teemu and nydus i get my reads from more of a general flow of the game. is enough for you to change your mind about MM? Despite Tolkien's beautiful argument? MysteryMeat's contribution is him trying to pose as normal town when he hasn't been posting much. My (limited) experience with lurker scum is that they hide until the second half of Day 1 before posting a "reads" list, and giving a vote in the hopes it'll let them off the hook for any suspicion, and voting for a possible bandwagon based on the general feelings in the thread. Let's be real here, NO ONE in this thread thought I was scum until GlowingBear (I believe Haru had already removed his vote at the time), so he figured it'd be best to continue the trend. Cats a safe vote. A bandwagon on meatpudding, but Cats is under suspicion so his vote won't be heavily scruitinized D2 if meatpudding turns up green.
It's just impossible for him not to even MENTION that I pushed for a lynch on a player for being deadweight and being FINE with a mislynch if that happens, if that's why he's so bent on voting Cats. It's just ridiculously impossible, like holy shit. I never changed my general opinion of MysteryMeat. However, he's sort of looking frantic at this point, so I'm considering changing my vote back. I don't like changing my vote back and forth so I'm waiting until a conclusion is being reached. On June 23 2014 12:00 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 23 2014 11:47 The_Templar wrote:On June 23 2014 11:27 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 23 2014 11:12 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
Just from rereading the thread over my town reads would be
Scott: He votes on himself because he feels that the game isn't for him. Then thanks me for telling him to keep fighting if he was town. If Scott was mafia, I doubt he would be feeling alone, as he would have a mafia qt to post in and ask for advice. He hasn't contributed a whole lot but i really think he is town.
King:
As its been pointed out by a few people, of my glaring inconsitancy by condeming cats for lynching regardless of alignment. I also don't like how tolkien said it. Missed the sentence in his post where he said it. Unlike teemu and nydus i get my reads from more of a general flow of the game.
The_Templar:
Says scumhunting isn't essential day 1, doesn't like scott, and is willing to lynch him because he has no scum read.
Like the reason i don't like CATS, Tolkien, is because they seem very ready to lynch people, and throwing scum on people to sway town into voting on them. (this isn't OMGUS) but teemu on the other hand votes on people to get reactions and reads. I think there is a very clear distinction. I usually don't pay too much attention, but in this case imo the distinction is pretty clear.
Teemu: I really like teemu, he's pushing for information, and getting reads. He thinks pudding is scum, which i think pudding could be town.
Nydus: Hasn't posted a ton recently but i think he's pretty town. The way i distinguish between his town and mafia play is how objective he is to the game. When he's town his reads are more selfish and when he's mafia his reads are really objective.
Tolkien: i honestly don't like, once again not for OMGUS, but he wants to lynch lurkers, which i don't agree with. If they keep on lurking they could get modkilled. He also is telling blue roles how to play the game. There is more than one way to play mafia, and i think he's just fishing for roles to kill in the night honestly. I also don't like the fact that when people talked about my inconsistency on cat's and tolkien. No one really mentioned the fact that there could be a relationship between tolkien and I. IMO if mafia are going to go for an inconsitancy like that it happens for a reason.
HARUH: Leaning pretty town. I like his reads early on in the game.
Epishade: I don't know atm. I get this odd feeling like he's playing slightly different than he was the last time i played with him when he was town. Don't know what this really means, but could potentially expand on this on d2 if im alive.
in the mafia fence pile
jabber
glowingbear (first post striked me as really odd)
pudding (said he could be town, but i think teemu is pretty town and teemu is pretty good at finding mafia) Why are me and Tolkien on your townpile if you don't like either of us?Where was Tolkien telling blue roles how to play the game and how is that scummy? What is this possible relationship between you and Tolkien? Can you elaborate on why the people in your mafia pile are scummy? I'm going to help meat a bit and answer that relationship question. This post was the initial lynch post, where tolkien did something similar to what I did later (although I've retracted mine in favor of the still very scummy meatpudding) I'm sorry but i really can't see what you're getting at. How does that post help explain a relationship between MM and Tolkien? It got the town riled up against MM for the most part. It also caused my vote to change to MM to pressure him, which made him come out and start defending himself. Now MM is defending himself from Tolkien among other people. This thread has gotten really, really weird. To clarify: I am mentally voting for MM at this point, and if nothing has changed in the next 40 or so minutes, I'll unvote meatpudding. But I don't want to spam the vote list. He's so pliant. It just seems super scummy to me. It also makes me think that both meats are actually town, and either wagon would have resulted in a mislynch D1. On June 27 2014 11:56 Hobbitus wrote:Show nested quote +
Your first point is silly. At that point, I was realizing that MysteryMeat had been completely unresponsive. At that point I started filter-diving him and found the post about scott, which you are making into much more of a deal than it actually is. Show nested quote + My vote was a knee-jerk reaction to your actions initially contradicting your post about scott and was also a pressure post, shifting the majority from pudding back to you. How am I making too big a deal out of it when half the reason you voted him was bc of the scott post, which was quite obviously not what MM meant? Show nested quote + I edit a lot of my posts outside mafia btw, generally to clear up a point that I didn't explain well. This is a piece of bad practice in general for me. It's also why I'm not good at arguing. Show nested quote + I don't post all of my thoughts in real-time. I generally take time to express my thoughts, sorry. If you take so much time carefully considering your posts, why do you have to re-explain them after they are posted? And, hun, don't be pouty that I'm asking you questions. You can change your mind as much as you want; as Nydus said, it's good to constantly re-evaluate your reads. The issue is that you change your mind when other people pressure you to. Note: I am not going to bother trying to argue why the scumread on me 'says tolkien was shot bc on to mafia-obvious answer' is bs. also, : mtamburini-town (too annoying to be scum)
Copchecks are usually used on players that flip opinions too fast, faster than flipping burgers during the night because this is just suspicious, especially if Templar flips green. normally, people would not flip their reads so quickly, over a span of 12 hours. none of his reads on n2 and d3 rubbed well against me simply because there was too much of a dramatic change in opinions that could not really be explained. Most of his reasoning shows panic or hastiness to end the game fast:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 27 2014 23:28 Hobbitus wrote:
Why would scum push so hard, so obviously, and at the same exact time? I decided to push Templar today, if bear does the same exact thing, it makes no difference to me.
This is my first game, I am changing my reads, even completely flipping my opinion on people as I figure out what's going on. All I know is not a single scum has been lynched yet, and after mm and Tolkien died I had to seriously reconsider what I thought made someone scummy. That change my opinion on cats to town, which was confirmed last night. I also didn't really see the case on nydus (but was behind so I didn't know if I missed something major). Before that I had been wrong about everyone, so it seems my new method of thinking is more accurate. On June 27 2014 12:58 Hobbitus wrote:
Also, Haru's argument that tamburini was scummier than anyone else bc he's annoying is garbs, too much of a knee jerk reaction for town? note: I am also not going to dispute why this read is wrong. On June 27 2014 23:54 Hobbitus wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 23:46 HaruRH wrote:On June 27 2014 23:26 GlowingBear wrote:On June 27 2014 23:00 HaruRH wrote:On June 27 2014 12:59 GlowingBear wrote:
I'm having a feeling that I'm dying this night. So, I would like to share thoughts in case I don't live.
I've being filter diving a lot this night and was waiting for the night results. While filter diving, an idea crossed my mind.
We've been discussing how contradictory some players were looking and we were judging their alignment solely on that.
What happened?
4 townies died. Of course, 1 modkill and 1 nightkill. But still, ALL OF THEM were contradictory.
Which means that being contradictory isn't necessary a scum signal. It may help identify one, but it's secondary.
If we've lost so many by attacking their contradictory posts, what do we have here? A very consistent Mafia, that is. A Mafia who is well connected and using the information they have to lead the mislynches.
To find the Mafia in this game we must not search for people being inconsistent in their posts. We have to search for people that are not compromising themselves in their votes, in their analysis. People that are not raising flags but following town misreads so they will win a mislynch. They contribute for the mislynch but they do not compromise themselves by doing so.
There are some who are doing this. In order of my suspicions, The_Templar, Epishade, Hobbitus, Teemu, Haru. (Have in my this takes off my scumread on meatpudding).
I think The_Templar is the one shines the most here, IMO. If you filter dive through his filters, he is not starting pushes to force town agenda. He is actually following these misleads. It started with meatpudding, then he found a better vote on MysteryMeat1. Next, he went to jabber when he completely acted contradictory (easy vote, everybody was voting on contradictory people).
If you are not sure what I am talking about, dive through his filters. You will see his passivity (is this a word?) then his easy votes.
Have in mind that this interpretation implies that Mafia really did split their votes on Day2 so Nydus would be an easy kill.
One last thing: dive through scott's short filter and compare to mtamburini's. I haven't done this but I think this is important, it might give some clues on his alignment.
I hope this help townies on D3!
I probably had more to say but it's getting close to the deadline and I don't think I have more time to "evolve" my logic.
PS: I've asked a list on top scum and top town so it might give me an insight on who are the Mason Couple, but I have failed to do so =/
PS: I'm not sure if this is obvious or not, but this is my first Mafia game ever, so this insight came to me...
PS3: FORGOT TO CHECK KOTC FILTERS PLEASE DO SO.
I lost you there. So mafias are consistent? Towns are inconsistent? You're flipping all the knowledge I ever had of mafia. Also, passivity is not a good case for scum. much like I can call you out for being inconsistent with your reads. 'he is not starting pushes to force town agenda. He is actually following these misleads'. you're doing the same till d3. So can I lynch you based on that? Mafia does not want do draw attention. They will try to look productive but actually they are just trying to not be compromised. What I'm trying to say in the bolded part is that townies are so lost in this game here that they start being inconsistent in their reads. Townies are looking at a poor reasoning and assuming that it's a mafia thing, which may be, but it's secondary. It came to me that it is not the best way to catch mafia, as we can see by the results. The key to catch mafia is understanding their behaviour on not wanting to get lynch more than trying to find scum. And I found this pattern while interpreting Templar's post. That night post my have came poorly worded because I wrote it on rush in case I was the victim. And I don't believe I've being doing the same. I've being reasoning my votes ever since the beginning, not simply following. Filter dive me and compare it to templar's. If you still believe that I'm behaving just as templar's, then stick your vote on whichever you find most likely. Just have in mind that looking for contradictions on people's posts led us to 2 mislynches. I did a quick filterdive of both of you and indeed, I can draw parallel on how you two voted and pushed. That is probably how you 2 got on the jabber wagon on d2 too. Your push on meatpudding: 'Having said all of these, although I still have a feeling that TheKingOfCats might be scum, I'll vore for meatpudding as I've got now a stronger read on him.' Templar's push on scott:' Yeah, I feel much better about voting scott than Cats, as Cats will probably contribute (although I have no idea how much, I thought he wasn't going to much today).' Templar's reasons for changing off scott: 'Please unvote yourself and keep your head in the game. Also, I'd rather not waste a lynch when you can just ask to be replaced.' Subsequent push on meatpudding: 'Seems to be making stuff up/being inconsistent. Throwing out random accusations doesn't make you a scum hunter.' Templar's push on MM(pressure vote): 'Wow, is MysteryMeat not defending himself at all right now? Wtf? He even told Scott to fight to the end if he was town...' goes back to meatpudding: 'You didn't react, now you have, and since your read makes sense now, I'm switching back to the other meat.' goes back to MM: 'Yeah, MM1 is making less and less sense as this goes on. And meatpudding has shown a willingness to post what he thinks later (although why is he avoiding the god damned issue of him vs MM, I have no idea).' what he did was quite logical. Both MM and meatpudding were obvious targets in d1 since they were incoherent and made no sense, which everyone pointed out. In fact, Templar is more town than you here because he actually bothered to pressure MM for reads so that he could compare which meat to lynch. While you stuck onto meatpudding simply because your scumread on him is stronger than your scumread on kotc. D2: glowingbear's push on me(pressure vote): 'You've been too quiet, and I need you to reply this post of mine' glowingbear's vote on jabber: 'Now that I believe we could be in a town VS town scenario, and after jabb tried to "hide" on my argument that flips are really important... I'm definitive now.' Templar's push on jabber: 'In the battle of the meats, he takes a neutral stance immediately' 'Basically he's just agreeing with people without offering an opinion at this point.' Both of you came to the same conclusion that jabber isn't trying to respond to anything at the time of the lynch. Both of you are really similar in your voting and reads. Whatever you have said about Templar can seriously be applied on you too. Yes our reads were/are very similar. But notice how jabber didn't get (mis)lynched. Everyone that's been mislynched has happened with pretty much everyone assuming you and Templar are town lol.
I normally condense all my points into 3 major points, but I think this warrants a point by itself:
LOL POST LIMIT
|
Interaction with GlowingBear
Glowingbear apparently came up with the same conclusion as Hobbitus during the course of N2:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 27 2014 10:42 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 10:38 The_Templar wrote:On June 27 2014 10:28 Hobbitus wrote:
Well something he did during the MM/mp lynch fight struck me as scummy but I put it in the back of my mind bc I was reading him as super town at the time. Let me find the posts.
But not only that, after everyone initially townread him, he got really quiet for a while. His number of posts is decent, but... he really doesn't say too much that isn't either an obvious defense (like defending me when I clearly said one thing and Haru was pushing as another) or posts to appease anyone who says anything negative about him. Now obviously town doesn't want to be seen as scum but the WAY he does it shouts "I want no confrontation." Most of my style is "I want no confrontation". I'm terrible at arguing in general, so I try to push people without getting into a huge argument so that I can actually keep my head in the game. I don't see why this is a huge problem. Admitting this makes me worried. There's a huge problem in this. That's what I wanted to know about Hobbitus when I asked poof filtering him, but it turns out that it came out as a read on you. Gonna filter dive you after dinner. On June 27 2014 11:40 Hobbitus wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 10:59 The_Templar wrote:On June 27 2014 10:54 Hobbitus wrote:On June 27 2014 10:38 The_Templar wrote:On June 27 2014 10:28 Hobbitus wrote:
Well something he did during the MM/mp lynch fight struck me as scummy but I put it in the back of my mind bc I was reading him as super town at the time. Let me find the posts.
But not only that, after everyone initially townread him, he got really quiet for a while. His number of posts is decent, but... he really doesn't say too much that isn't either an obvious defense (like defending me when I clearly said one thing and Haru was pushing as another) or posts to appease anyone who says anything negative about him. Now obviously town doesn't want to be seen as scum but the WAY he does it shouts "I want no confrontation." Most of my style is "I want no confrontation". I'm terrible at arguing in general, so I try to push people without getting into a huge argument so that I can actually keep my head in the game. I don't see why this is a huge problem. Well I can see you not wanting to get in a stupid tamburini/haru argument, but the way you react when you are pushed isn't conducive to reading YOU at all. What exactly do you mean by that? I mean if someone pushes on you, you either change your action, backpedal, or say "oh, yeah, you're right." In this game I've seen you push people with a reasonable amount of aggression so I find it hard to believe you wouldn't stand up for your opinions if you were town. On June 27 2014 12:59 GlowingBear wrote:
I'm having a feeling that I'm dying this night. So, I would like to share thoughts in case I don't live.
I've being filter diving a lot this night and was waiting for the night results. While filter diving, an idea crossed my mind.
We've been discussing how contradictory some players were looking and we were judging their alignment solely on that.
What happened?
4 townies died. Of course, 1 modkill and 1 nightkill. But still, ALL OF THEM were contradictory.
Which means that being contradictory isn't necessary a scum signal. It may help identify one, but it's secondary.
If we've lost so many by attacking their contradictory posts, what do we have here? A very consistent Mafia, that is. A Mafia who is well connected and using the information they have to lead the mislynches.
To find the Mafia in this game we must not search for people being inconsistent in their posts. We have to search for people that are not compromising themselves in their votes, in their analysis. People that are not raising flags but following town misreads so they will win a mislynch. They contribute for the mislynch but they do not compromise themselves by doing so.
There are some who are doing this. In order of my suspicions, The_Templar, Epishade, Hobbitus, Teemu, Haru. (Have in my this takes off my scumread on meatpudding).
I think The_Templar is the one shines the most here, IMO. If you filter dive through his filters, he is not starting pushes to force town agenda. He is actually following these misleads. It started with meatpudding, then he found a better vote on MysteryMeat1. Next, he went to jabber when he completely acted contradictory (easy vote, everybody was voting on contradictory people).
If you are not sure what I am talking about, dive through his filters. You will see his passivity (is this a word?) then his easy votes.
Have in mind that this interpretation implies that Mafia really did split their votes on Day2 so Nydus would be an easy kill.
One last thing: dive through scott's short filter and compare to mtamburini's. I haven't done this but I think this is important, it might give some clues on his alignment.
I hope this help townies on D3!
I probably had more to say but it's getting close to the deadline and I don't think I have more time to "evolve" my logic.
PS: I've asked a list on top scum and top town so it might give me an insight on who are the Mason Couple, but I have failed to do so =/
PS: I'm not sure if this is obvious or not, but this is my first Mafia game ever, so this insight came to me...
PS3: FORGOT TO CHECK KOTC FILTERS PLEASE DO SO.
Note: and of course, most of his 'facts' about the game isn't true. Only 1 mislynch was because of contradictory posting, while the other 3 deaths definitely do not include people whose posts are contradicting. Note2: His points could be used on hobbitus, surprisingly. On June 27 2014 22:29 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 21:56 The_Templar wrote:
Beginning wake-up processes…
Nice wagon between you two btw, reading the rest of the posts I'm not starting a wagon, in starting a crusade. I and Hobbitus had similar behaviours. It means nothing, only a slight suggestion we have the same alignment. I invite everyone to read through my last night post and judge if I don't have fair reasoning. On June 27 2014 23:26 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 23:00 HaruRH wrote:On June 27 2014 12:59 GlowingBear wrote:
I'm having a feeling that I'm dying this night. So, I would like to share thoughts in case I don't live.
I've being filter diving a lot this night and was waiting for the night results. While filter diving, an idea crossed my mind.
We've been discussing how contradictory some players were looking and we were judging their alignment solely on that.
What happened?
4 townies died. Of course, 1 modkill and 1 nightkill. But still, ALL OF THEM were contradictory.
Which means that being contradictory isn't necessary a scum signal. It may help identify one, but it's secondary.
If we've lost so many by attacking their contradictory posts, what do we have here? A very consistent Mafia, that is. A Mafia who is well connected and using the information they have to lead the mislynches.
To find the Mafia in this game we must not search for people being inconsistent in their posts. We have to search for people that are not compromising themselves in their votes, in their analysis. People that are not raising flags but following town misreads so they will win a mislynch. They contribute for the mislynch but they do not compromise themselves by doing so.
There are some who are doing this. In order of my suspicions, The_Templar, Epishade, Hobbitus, Teemu, Haru. (Have in my this takes off my scumread on meatpudding).
I think The_Templar is the one shines the most here, IMO. If you filter dive through his filters, he is not starting pushes to force town agenda. He is actually following these misleads. It started with meatpudding, then he found a better vote on MysteryMeat1. Next, he went to jabber when he completely acted contradictory (easy vote, everybody was voting on contradictory people).
If you are not sure what I am talking about, dive through his filters. You will see his passivity (is this a word?) then his easy votes.
Have in mind that this interpretation implies that Mafia really did split their votes on Day2 so Nydus would be an easy kill.
One last thing: dive through scott's short filter and compare to mtamburini's. I haven't done this but I think this is important, it might give some clues on his alignment.
I hope this help townies on D3!
I probably had more to say but it's getting close to the deadline and I don't think I have more time to "evolve" my logic.
PS: I've asked a list on top scum and top town so it might give me an insight on who are the Mason Couple, but I have failed to do so =/
PS: I'm not sure if this is obvious or not, but this is my first Mafia game ever, so this insight came to me...
PS3: FORGOT TO CHECK KOTC FILTERS PLEASE DO SO.
I lost you there. So mafias are consistent? Towns are inconsistent? You're flipping all the knowledge I ever had of mafia. Also, passivity is not a good case for scum. much like I can call you out for being inconsistent with your reads. 'he is not starting pushes to force town agenda. He is actually following these misleads'. you're doing the same till d3. So can I lynch you based on that? Mafia does not want do draw attention. They will try to look productive but actually they are just trying to not be compromised.What I'm trying to say in the bolded part is that townies are so lost in this game here that they start being inconsistent in their reads. Townies are looking at a poor reasoning and assuming that it's a mafia thing, which may be, but it's secondary. It came to me that it is not the best way to catch mafia, as we can see by the results. The key to catch mafia is understanding their behaviour on not wanting to get lynch more than trying to find scum. And I found this pattern while interpreting Templar's post. That night post my have came poorly worded because I wrote it on rush in case I was the victim. And I don't believe I've being doing the same. I've being reasoning my votes ever since the beginning, not simply following. Filter dive me and compare it to templar's. If you still believe that I'm behaving just as templar's, then stick your vote on whichever you find most likely. Just have in mind that looking for contradictions on people's posts led us to 2 mislynches. note: Again, this can be used on hobbitus (point 1) and surprisingly, glowingbear himself. Note2: Again, a false fact. 1 mislynch only because of contradictions. On June 27 2014 23:33 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 23:09 HaruRH wrote:On June 26 2014 10:56 GlowingBear wrote:On June 26 2014 10:44 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 26 2014 10:09 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 26 2014 09:33 jabberwockzerg wrote:On June 26 2014 09:18 The_Templar wrote:K, wrote a case in about 7 minutes on jabberzerg. Looking at his very thin filter, I now have a very scummy read on him. On June 23 2014 04:01 jabberwockzerg wrote:
Hey guys, I'm out for most of the day, but I'll try to keep up on my phone, and I'll be home for the last three hours or so to read through all the filters and make my final vote.
I just want to make a quick vote now in case something happens I won't get modkilled.
##Vote: meatpudding This isn't particularly scummy. Not all of us have hours upon hours to post in this thread and he could have been later, and votes aren't permanent. I think his vote on meatpudding was a bit questionable since he seems to have had a town read on him but he was probably following the general trend of the town (I think there were 4 votes at that point, but it could be 3) due to lack of time. That could be a newbie fear of wanting to not look suspicious after being gone for ~6 hours and following town. But, is he really going to play an entire game of mafia without having any time? Please. In the battle of the meats, he takes a neutral stance immediately: On June 23 2014 10:53 jabberwockzerg wrote:On June 23 2014 10:48 meatpudding wrote:
Back. I'e reading the thread now. If you're voting Mystery or me, then I don't really have a choice anyway. But I'll flesh out my reads anyway. I'm very interested in what you have to say, I'm undecided about which meat to vote for, and you posting at all is a good sign And then when I make a point about MM not posting, he jumps on it and says he's suspecting him more. On June 23 2014 11:10 jabberwockzerg wrote:On June 23 2014 10:57 The_Templar wrote:
Wow, is MysteryMeat not defending himself at all right now? Wtf? He even told Scott to fight to the end if he was town... Wow interesting. I'd really love to hear a lot from both the meats, but right now the strongest case is MM And then: On June 23 2014 11:58 jabberwockzerg wrote:On June 23 2014 11:56 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
im not going to share my thought process on one person. deal with it... You might not like how I'm gonna deal with it ##Vote: MysteryMeat1 HAHA so cliche Day 2: On June 25 2014 12:41 jabberwockzerg wrote:
I am not a girl Really? The day is half over and you feel the need to make that your first post of the day? He continues to be as neutral as possible until he can latch onto an opinion. On June 25 2014 13:00 jabberwockzerg wrote:
I think Nydus's GB vote is interesting.
For me it just boils down to whether or not we believe his pressure explanation.
I'm not sure I do, but maybe some video mafia players can explain if that sort of play is common over there. "I don't know, but someone who does stuff that I've never done will figure it out for me". On June 25 2014 13:48 jabberwockzerg wrote:On June 25 2014 13:37 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:
Teemursu, could you lay out your case against meatpudding in full without quoting posts where you've already explained why you're voting for him? As far as i can tell your case against him is mostly based around you not liking his OMGUS of you (although the point you raised about him townreading me and scumreading Haru for basically doing the same thing is interesting) and i really need to hear the case put forward in a different way so i can better understand it. I'd love to see this as well On June 26 2014 08:30 jabberwockzerg wrote:I'm liking this Nydus vote. His random pressure vote just seems a little off to me Not that pressure votes are scummy, but it's better to be clear with the town that that is what your doing, and On June 25 2014 11:28 NydusHerMain wrote:
##Vote: GlowingBear
towny feel isn't good enough for me, clearly mafia "isn't good enough for me, clearly mafia" Basically he's just agreeing with people without offering an opinion at this point. On June 26 2014 09:09 jabberwockzerg wrote:On June 26 2014 09:06 Epishade wrote:@Cats, My recent interactions with him, and his replies to me where he dismisses everything I say as wifom is one thing. I replied back here. On June 26 2014 06:48 Epishade wrote:
[quote]
Are you serious? You actually think all of the townreading that Nydus has been doing to me is irrelevant and wifom? Why even bother thinking about anything in this game then, since surely if thinking about how logical plays work and how you would expect others to act is wifom, then everything else is then, right? We should just not even bother trying to read people, since everything everyone says and does is wifom, right?
[quote]
[quote]
I took this to mean you were connecting me as potential mafia scum with Nydus, as you said this takes me, referring to your previous argument about Nydus and his views about me. I thought you were drawing a connection between us two as scum by doing that, which is why I assumed you thought we both were scum. Teemursu was on Token's scumlist, which is my personal opinion as a contributing factor to why Token died. I think Teemursu's being incredibly nitpicky against meatpudding too, trying to scumread him for trivial details in meatpudding's posts. That to me is a little scummy. On June 23 2014 22:02 Teemursu wrote:
[quote]
Odd. It feels like you're hiding something and not wanting to make up your mind about someone.
You say you can't call Tolkien scum based on that, but you agree with me on Tolkien being scum, and you put him into your potential scum list? Just what is this supposed to mean, anyways? You think him not finding something alignment indicative (him saying he can't find Cats or Token scum based on something) means he's hiding something? It's not just against meatpudding though. Here Teemursu agrees with Poof that because I didn't have hard reads on people and labeled them as "townlean" instead of town that that somehow makes me scummy... On June 25 2014 07:28 Teemursu wrote:
[quote]
This is one of the reasons why I have been reading him as "trying hard to sound towny".
IMHO, He's continued the same kind of way of talking by switching on the MM1 bandwagon by calling MeatPudding a misguided townie, while MeatPudding has in my opinion had even more bad & inconsistent logic.
It's Teemursu's incredible nitpickyness that I find to be a trait of scum. I will say that my early read on Teemursu was based on some of his word choice, too though. So call me a hypocrite if you must or feel free to point out the contradiction. That's just how I feel. Ok, you know what. I'm just sick of writing so much and reading through filters. I have no idea how accurate my reads are and it sucks to know that all this could very likely end up untrue, which I'm sure it might be. Fuck it, I'm voting for JabberZerg. I can't tell who to vote for anymore and she's been flying under the radar for too long now. ##Vote: JabberZergBuahahahahaha!!!! sdea fgsdafn jd still not a girl Is that really important? How about you focus on the issue? ##Unvote
##Vote: jabberwockzergOut of time but after this next WCS series I'll write something up on Epishade, who's acting sort of strangely, and Nydus, who is… improving a bit maybe? Not sure… I've been noncommittal and shitty and lurky Can't seem to focus on this game as much as I should be. wouldn't fault anyone for voting me BUT there is so little information to be gained from my flip that it will be more useful to leave me kicking around for at least another day and see what happens from there I'll try harder, stop daydrinking, etc. If you're scum i don't care how little information we get from lynching you. Convince us not to vote for you now, don't just say "Yeah guys i'll start doing stuff after flip...promise" You can start by posting what info, according to you, we would get from your flip and then you can answer this: On June 26 2014 09:01 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 26 2014 08:55 jabberwockzerg wrote:On June 26 2014 08:49 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 22 2014 16:20 jabberwockzerg wrote:
yeah, pudding's a townlean
I'd be most comfortable with a tolkien vote, but I want him to read my post about scott and react to it, defend his wagon.
I'll agree with a fence on KittyCats, he's asking questions, but I'm noticing a lack of content. On June 23 2014 10:53 jabberwockzerg wrote:On June 23 2014 10:48 meatpudding wrote:
Back. I'e reading the thread now. If you're voting Mystery or me, then I don't really have a choice anyway. But I'll flesh out my reads anyway. I'm very interested in what you have to say, I'm undecided about which meat to vote for, and you posting at all is a good sign Why was pudding a townlean for you at the time and what led you to change your mind and think that he might be a good lynch at the end of the day? It was his silence after coming under heavy suspicion So him possibly being away from his computer and not being able to respond to the things being said against him immediately was what led you to disregard your townread of him and seriously consider his lynch? Was there anything else he did at the time that struck you as scummy? Also: On June 26 2014 08:43 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 26 2014 08:30 jabberwockzerg wrote:I'm liking this Nydus vote. His random pressure vote just seems a little off to me Not that pressure votes are scummy, but it's better to be clear with the town that that is what your doing, and On June 25 2014 11:28 NydusHerMain wrote:
##Vote: GlowingBear
towny feel isn't good enough for me, clearly mafia "isn't good enough for me, clearly mafia" I want you to give a more detailed reason than that to jump on the Nydus wagon. Saying what he's doing isn't necessarily scummy but voting for him because it seemed "off" isn't good enough. Jabber your silence after coming under heavy suspicion is incredibly scummy, in fact i think it's enough to sway my vote. ##Vote: Jabberwockzerg Phew. Too much confusion. Now that I believe we could be in a town VS town scenario, and after jabb tried to "hide" on my argument that flips are really important... I'm definitive now. ##Unvote
##Vote: Jabberwockzerg Also, I don't see why you scumread Templar when you did the exact same thing. You did not change wagons even after you saw the arguments for a nydus lynch and a epi lynch. On June 27 2014 12:59 GlowingBear wrote:
4 townies died. Of course, 1 modkill and 1 nightkill. But still, ALL OF THEM were contradictory.
Which means that being contradictory isn't necessary a scum signal. It may help identify one, but it's secondary.
If we've lost so many by attacking their contradictory posts, what do we have here? A very consistent Mafia, that is. A Mafia who is well connected and using the information they have to lead the mislynches.
To find the Mafia in this game we must not search for people being inconsistent in their posts. We have to search for people that are not compromising themselves in their votes, in their analysis. People that are not raising flags but following town misreads so they will win a mislynch. They contribute for the mislynch but they do not compromise themselves by doing so.
Nope. Was kotc contradictory? Was nydus contradictory? (If yes, in what sense?) The only contradictory lynch that could have happened d2 was epi's lynch. but it did not follow through. So you can identify that mafia was the people who started and led the mislynches. Give me a list of people who started the mislynches. I've said they don't compromise themselves, they follow the mislynches. I'm not saying that mafia is starting those mislynches, I'm saying the mafia is identifying these mislynches and are following them. I'll expand what I wrote at the end of N1 as soon as I get to my pc so I can clarify it better Note: Again, can be used on Hobbitus, both his votes were for people who had bad reasoning (MM and epishade).
I think I have rattled on too much. This interaction with glowingbear is weird : glowingbear puts up points that obviously can be used on hobbitus, but calls him towny for the same reason he called Templar scum. (Let's not lynch by bad reasoning, glowingbear can be spared today). However, hobbitus's inconsistency is too much. He seems to be acting like his own posts : When he posted about catching scum from inconsistency, he instantly became inconsisten with his attitude. Glowingbear also put up a good point I will use (only half of it, because I don't agree with the other half. Blue roles also sometimes become scared of lynches and choose to defend themselves from lynches over finding scum) "The key to catch mafia is understanding their behaviour". The biggest behavioural change I have seen throughout the course of the game is hobbitus.
TL;DR
Tonight is definitely the night that decides our fate. If everyone sheeps hobbitus/glowingbear and Templar is town, game over because we have to decide who between glowingbear or hobbitus is the correct scum (assuming we have 3 maf and today isn't lylo). If everyone sheeps me and hobbitus is scum, at least we know we will catch scum from either glowingbear or hobbitus (also, assuming today isn't lylo). That's why, I think Hobbitus is the correct lynch for today because the change between hobbitus and glowingbear is very different.
Do not just read this part because you're lazy. finish my masterpiece. I am done. I will not post until the flip because I am soooo exhausted with this mafia game. I will only answer questions that are very important.
Read p3:
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finally, to answer hobbitus's questions:
On June 28 2014 23:46 Hobbitus wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2014 13:28 HaruRH wrote:
No seriously hobbitus. You're not making any sense now. I suspect you're just dumping all you can because this could be lylo. Trying to make a play? Trying to let potential scum lurk? Instantly flipping all your townreads and expect everyone to do the same? Wifom the shit out of everyone? You're misdirecting town so bad, if templar flips town, both you and glowingbear are getting the axe. But of course, this could already be lylo and lynching templar would win you the game.
##Unvote
##Vote: Hobbitus Oh. My. God. If I were mafia, I would be horrible mafia for making such a risky play when the game was pretty much won for me. The whole "letting potential scum lurk" thing is such bullshit. Yeah, let's continue to go after the people who we have almost NO INFORMATION ABOUT. That's not an incredibly easy way to get town to mislynch for seemingly justified reasons, that's not a scummy play at all. And exactly, exactly. If I suddenly flip all my reads, what are the chances of getting all the other town to do the same? There is literally no reason for me to make that play! Yup, vote me because I'm pressuring you and Templar. Please continue to question me so I can demonstrate quite clearly to townies that I am making sense and that you are scummy as fuck thx.
No. This is the perfect time to do so. If I did not catch the inconsistency with your posts, I would also have sheeped you.
The chances are really high to be honest.
No. I did not vote you because you pressured us. In fact, even if you pressured Templar correctly, I don't care. Read my read on you.
Something that D1/D2|Hobbitus would not say. Thanks for proving my point.
On June 28 2014 23:35 Hobbitus wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2014 13:21 HaruRH wrote:On June 28 2014 11:16 Hobbitus wrote:On June 28 2014 00:29 HaruRH wrote:On June 28 2014 00:08 Hobbitus wrote:On June 28 2014 00:03 HaruRH wrote:
Questions for everyone:
1) What do you think of this glowingbear-hobbitus interaction going on?
2) What are your updated reads?
I'll answer my own question. I find glowingbear-hobbitus's interaction weird. It almost feels like a scum buddied up with a town and is attempting to misdirect town into lynching all their own top towns. This is what I think.
My updated reads:
poofter
teemu
templar
glowingbear
hobbitus
mtam
meatpudding
epishade
At this point, does mafia need to get town to lynch their top towns? No. They can continue the strategy they've had all game of picking off people who were on the fence, making them seem scummy for bad town play. If I were mafia what would be the point of switching up my play now and attacking the towniest townies? That would be totally stupid. Why not. This is the perfect chance to mislynch another town. ... Are you serious? Mafia are careful, WHY would they switch up their game if their strategy was working??? Exactly. Why switch up when they can lurk past this game? Mafia haven't been lurking obviously. Everyone suspected of being mafia because of lurking or incoherence or basically being a bad townie HAS FLIPPED GREEN. If we haven't lynched a single scum, then obviously the mafia are somewhat involved in the game.
Your analysis is still wrong. If I tell you that 3 in 4 lurkers are town lurkers and we have eliminated most of the town lurkers, leaving behind mostly scum lurkers, would you believe me? No. you're tunnelling.
your sample size is also very small. 2 lynches that were started in a whim (Tolkien & Kotc started MM lynch because of his bad posts that made them pissed) is not a good point for argument.
funnily enough, you helped made the MM lynch possible.
I'm out of time and this is probably the posting cap. I will be back when its nearly flip to see what changed.
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Teemu, I want your comment on my giant wall of text. I am so rxhausted right now 
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On June 29 2014 03:34 Epishade wrote:
You know what? Teemursu and meatpudding wouldn't be voting for each other if they were both scum. And since I'm leaning more toward Teemursu being scum than meatpudding, I'm gonna change my vote to who I think is more likely.
#Unvote
#Vote: Teemursu
Epishade, did you read my case?
Also you townread both of them (by saying they cant both be scum), then why are you voting for either?
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So right now, we must consolidate our votes on templar, epi or hobbitus. I want to lynch epi and hobbitus.
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Also, glowingbear, I ask you this question:
1) Hobbitus did not instantly came to the conclusion. He only stated that he found templar to be quite scummy. However, he locked in to templar almost instantly and he has never been this aggressive in his pushes before. What are your takes on his behavourial changes?
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On June 29 2014 07:03 Hobbitus wrote:
Fuck it, if Templar is town I'll never forgive myself
##vote: HaruRH
I did a 3 hour-3 post kong analysis of all your posts.
Put in the same amount of effort before you vote for me. Or else I'm dismissing it as OMGUS.
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Give me time to evaluate between hobbitus and epishade.
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I don't have time to post anymore. It's 6am here. I will definitely miss the flip so i'm leaving my vote with epi for today. Let's talk properly and consolidate our scumreads on n3.
##Unvote
##Vote: Epishade
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On June 29 2014 07:32 Epishade wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2014 07:18 HaruRH wrote:
I don't have time to post anymore. It's 6am here. I will definitely miss the flip so i'm leaving my vote with epi for today. Let's talk properly and consolidate our scumreads on n3.
##Unvote
##Vote: Epishade There's not going to be a night 3 if it's lylo and you vote me. I like how you assume that there is going to be a night 3 if I get lynched, almost as if you were so sure I were scum, but you really knew I wasn't! That sounds like the kind of thing scum would say to appear townie when they knew there actually wouldn't be a night 3.
##Unvote
##Vote: HaruRH
Fuck I can't sleep. I drank so much monster energy to watch SGDQ and its 6.40am now ;_;
An epishade lynch is a gamble I am willing to make over a templar lynch. Considering both could be town (nobody is 100% scumread), in my eyes, your % is much, much higher. Even if n3 don't come, I won't regret choosing my own scumread over a forced lynch on templar, which I will also regret for my life if he flips town.
You, on the other hand, seems desperate to make someone else other than you, get lynched. You know meatpudding and teemu is your top scumreads, but you chose to vote me instead. Congrats, now you're my top scumread.
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...
"And yeah, all my posts reek of panic -_- if anything Haru is promoting everyone to panic with lylo this, lylo that. "
"I like how you assume that there is going to be a night 3 if I get lynched"
Can somebody explain wtf am I supposed to do now.
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On June 29 2014 07:56 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2014 07:53 HaruRH wrote:
...
"And yeah, all my posts reek of panic -_- if anything Haru is promoting everyone to panic with lylo this, lylo that. "
"I like how you assume that there is going to be a night 3 if I get lynched"
Can somebody explain wtf am I supposed to do now. Don't OMGUS, don't focus single posts, evaluate the whole picture and have in mind voting Hobbitus would be a waste of vote as nobody else seems to be willing to vote him, even Templar is lurking.
No, what I meant was that hobbitus basically told me not to spread panic with lylo here lylo there, and when I stop using it, epi is using it as a scumread.
So what am I supposed to do?
Everyone oitside of the 4 of us are lurking. 5 out of 9 players are lurking.
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EPT
