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mderg
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany1740 Posts
April 06 2014 10:29 GMT
#2599
On April 06 2014 10:15 gumshoe wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 06 2014 06:34 mderg wrote:
On April 06 2014 00:08 getmoript wrote:
On April 06 2014 00:01 mderg wrote:
Finished filtering cell 5. Was really exhausting and somehow took over 2 hours.
I will post my exact thoughts later today when I get home.


right now:
getmoript - strong townread
prplhz - slight townread
Cephiro - slight scumread

Can you explain how you ended up at these conclusions plz?

I already said that I would post my exact thoughts later on, I just had to leave really fast.





getmoript: (I know it´s a hydra, it just sounds strange to use they, so I´ll say he)
At the start he actually seems kinda scummy, wanting to policy lynch Holyflare. Also lynching Palmar just to be sure his reads are legit is sacrificing too much. He´s also incredibly focused on becoming mayor and insanely confident. All this doesn´t seem like townie behavior at all
On April 02 2014 05:02 getmoript wrote:
Like Cell 2 is obviously the best first lynch. HF busses as scum and has ok reads as town. I'd love to policy lynch him and under no circumstances should he ever be allowed to mid-late game. Cell 3 should be the third lynch 100%. Palmar is someone who, for lack of a better lynch, we can lynch and then sheep his reads; I'm tempted to move this up to slot 2 because Palmer tends to get worse as time goes on. Cell 4 should probably be the second lynch though because they're mostly unreadable and I want to lynch Alakaslam so that makes that pretty easy. Cell 1 is clearly next because me and rayn usually click on things and in case town hasn't won by then me and Rayn should easily be able to finish it off or I'll hammer Rayn to win the game for town.
2->4->3->1->5 is clearly the best pattern and me/Cav should 100% be the mayor. Like it's obvious, I refuse to let anyone else be the mayor and will policy lynch anyone who goes against me as mayor.


On April 02 2014 05:23 getmoript wrote:
I 100% think I can nail scum in the first two groups but I'm also realistic that there's a good chance for mislynching in those first two as well.


What actually makes me think that getmoript is town is the decline in confidence. The reads (especially on cell 1) change really often. The only really consistent read is scum on prplhz.
On April 04 2014 09:35 getmoript wrote:
Actually I've thought about it. I still think Rayn is scum here. My instinct says he's scum with Palmer/HF, but quite frankly if they're scum, they've played a fine game and this is information that we shouldn't have. So I'm striking this off of any accusation I see and holding it against anyone who uses it. We rate and vote for people based only and solely on their merits. If they beat us, they beat us.

Posts like this don´t really show the confidence that was there early on.

This looks like he thought it would be easy to figure the game out and scum were obvious finds. But as the game goes on the reads often change and it looks like they are based on rereading filters, rethinking other options and including new input.
Overall I just get this really townie vibe about getmoript as his thoughts about the game are progressing.



prplhz:
Looks scummy at the start because of the heavy focus on the cell order and wanting to lynch unreadables first (I agreed with him back then but that was stupid). It also seems like he´s nitpicking and sometimes focusing on small details like single words which just aren´t chosen carefully (this may just be my flawed perception).
He gets town points for not wanting palmar as first lynch just to know his reads were legit. He´s also pushing others to give their opinions and reads like here:
On April 03 2014 18:56 prplhz wrote:
@palmar who you voting for mayor?

On April 03 2014 23:28 prplhz wrote:
okay

what's your read on me flare?

In general his posts feel like he wants town to get as much information and reads as possible.
What I also like is that he doesn´t think the circumstances of rayns modkill can be indicative of rayns alignment. I mean, he was drunk and got modkilled in a similar way in catastrophe.



Cephiro:
basically he only posted two huge walls of text. That in itself doesn´t tell much about his alignment but he certainly didn´t put much effort into this game. He´s saying that he doesn´t like the people discussing the orders in which order the cells should be lynched.
On April 03 2014 10:04 Cephiro wrote:
General note: Not liking the people who are talking about which order we should lynch the cells in at the start of the game, such as Sentinel.

He himself is also discussing the lynch order, though.
On April 03 2014 10:04 Cephiro wrote:
Fairly interesting post by LSB, his first post with a clear agenda. While I personally like the idea of being able to cut off the inactives players to start with, once the initial order is decided it cannot be changed. I don't think that the first 48 hours will necessarily tell us enough as for the players activities, and if we have lynch targets for reasons other than inactivity, we should go for those first in my opinion.

The major difference being that he´s discussing it as direct responses to posts where the order is discussed.

He´s very focused on emphasizing the importance of getting reads from everyone, especially those who´ll be lynched first but he provides almost no reads himself. Like he is just repeating what he knows is good townplay without actually doing it himself.
It seems like he tried to stay under the radar in his cell while getmoript and prplhz are fighting each other and hoping one of them gets lynched in the process.


In the midst of a vote thats happening RIGHT now, Mderg sees fit to post a wall of text regarding the next cell and barely acknowledges the shit storm going on in thread 0_0 this is because to Mderg, this cells result dont matter, so long as it's not palmer he doesnt care. Which is why hes already moved onto the next one.



I posted this because I fucking said I would when I got home. It was the first thing I did after coming home. It was not because I saw it fit in the midst of what was happening. You could see it as part of my last post before that where I didn´t have time to properly write my reasons for my reads.






On April 06 2014 10:43 gumshoe wrote:
Mderg:
In general his posts feel like he wants town to get as much information and reads as possible.
What I also like is that he doesn´t think the circumstances of rayns modkill can be indicative of rayns alignment. I mean, he was drunk and got modkilled in a similar way in catastrophe.

(would just like to not how fucking scummy the bolded is given what we pretty much know)

I don´t see it scummy in any way. I still don´t think rayns drunken rage can in any way be interpreted as him being town or scum. You just dont´make sense when you´re completely drunk.


These are reads based on proper reasoning, not some shit like he said that when he was drunk and got himself modkilled.
On April 06 2014 09:14 Steveling wrote:
HOLY CRAP I REALISED SOMETHING UPON READING THIS

Coag lost by 1 vote right?
But we all thought that sentinel was gonna get lynched because we thought my vote on him was legit. Turns out it was exactly on 00:00 so it wasn't.

AND HERE'S THE THING, SENTINEL VOTED ON HIMSELF BECAUSE HE WAS MAD FROM GETTING BUS'D!!!!
AND HE DID THAT BEFORE MY VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NO WAY A SCUM WOULD DO THAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SO IF HES NOT SCUM AND COAG IS NOT SCUM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OMG PALMAR

On April 06 2014 09:40 Holyflare wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 06 2014 09:36 getmoript wrote:
Hell did you see how many times his reads changed at the end. Like his first list of scumreads had both Ceph and me as scum. Like WTF. Then when you read that post it's even more full of total WTF. I don't think Sent is great as town, but I refuse to believe that he is that incapable or stupid as town. Like that's not in his game. Generally, when it comes between Dumb or Scum it's often more correct to assume the latter than the former.


Stop being stupid. Palmar sheeped his scum read (me) on to sentinel to look towny but failed. The more you try and reason a town palmar the more likely mafia you are geript.

This makes it very likely that Palmar was scum.
On April 06 2014 11:11 gumshoe wrote:
If rayn is scum, the only person he liked in coags cell was Palmer / : Palmer likewise KNEW somehow that rayn was town.

And They both loved prplz. Yay Constants and variables!

With Palmar being likely scum and this you get rayn as scum. That´s pretty convincing. Palmar and rayn liking prplhz also seems incriminating. Inn addition to that prplhz acted strangely in the last lynch.

This is a convincing reason, that fucking drunk rage which got rayn modkilled is not a convincing reason.



##vote: prplhz
mderg
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany1740 Posts
April 06 2014 11:08 GMT
#2602
On April 06 2014 19:37 prplhz wrote:
@mderg I explained my behavior during lynch, please tell me why you don't find my explanation adequate.

Your explanation definitely has some sense to it. Nevertheless I think your play was a bit strange. Also my focus was more on rayn and Palmar having such positive opinions of your play.


Now that I think of it it´s probably better to vote cephiro, though because you´re nowhere near confirmed scum and I would like him to actually do something. if he´s under pressure that should be more likely to happen.


##unvote

##vote: Cephiro
mderg
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany1740 Posts
April 07 2014 16:43 GMT
#2755
Cephiro actually doing anything this game would make this much easier...
mderg
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany1740 Posts
April 07 2014 17:03 GMT
#2769
On April 08 2014 01:51 gumshoe wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 08 2014 01:43 mderg wrote:
Cephiro actually doing anything this game would make this much easier...


What is the motive for cephiro to lurk as scum the day of his lynch? Balla has time and doesn't expect the game to get to him, so he's a different story.

Also mdern, if you bilieve rayn was scum, than me slam and Steve are town. We are all the votes on prplz. Why are scum not dog piling him if he's town?

Furthermore, can you read specifically my and holys exchange? What do you think of him? You really believe poof is scum?

Problem with him lurking is that we can only read prp (getmoript doesn´t seem like an option). And once you look scummy the only way to defend yourself would be to prove you being town, since you can´t prove cephiro being scum.

Can´t be sure about slam since I have no idea what he is thinking at all.
Actually there is one reason I can see why scum wouldn´t jump on prp but it´s pure meta and I want to see the flip before mentioning it, so scum can´t play based on that "knowledge".

More than poof being scum I can only really see holy as town right now.
mderg
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany1740 Posts
April 07 2014 17:23 GMT
#2778
On April 08 2014 02:07 gumshoe wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 08 2014 02:03 mderg wrote:
On April 08 2014 01:51 gumshoe wrote:
On April 08 2014 01:43 mderg wrote:
Cephiro actually doing anything this game would make this much easier...


What is the motive for cephiro to lurk as scum the day of his lynch? Balla has time and doesn't expect the game to get to him, so he's a different story.

Also mdern, if you bilieve rayn was scum, than me slam and Steve are town. We are all the votes on prplz. Why are scum not dog piling him if he's town?

Furthermore, can you read specifically my and holys exchange? What do you think of him? You really believe poof is scum?

Problem with him lurking is that we can only read prp (getmoript doesn´t seem like an option). And once you look scummy the only way to defend yourself would be to prove you being town, since you can´t prove cephiro being scum.

Can´t be sure about slam since I have no idea what he is thinking at all.
Actually there is one reason I can see why scum wouldn´t jump on prp but it´s pure meta and I want to see the flip before mentioning it, so scum can´t play based on that "knowledge".

More than poof being scum I can only really see holy as town right now.


How? He can't buss here. Please talk to me, holy doesn't know how day 5 will go. He needs to win today to be certain of victory. Also 9 out of 10 hard lurkers are town. I know this because I am that lurker most games, despite that the reason scum don't lurk is because the meta does not favour it, seeing as town lunches lurkers all the time( we did it yesterday dammit)

Holy is a very charismatic player, he will always look townie, don't fall for it ) :

Oh and ray hard pushed slam, he's town.

I have a hard time responding to the bolded part because I´m not sure which part of my post you´re referring to.

I know most lurkers are town. It´s just that in this particular scenario lurking could help him, if he was scum. He also could´ve meta´ed the shit out of us by going against what should be good in the meta. Lurking alone is never a clear tell as either town or scum.

I will definitely reread holys filter. Maybe I can catch something.
mderg
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany1740 Posts
April 07 2014 17:44 GMT
#2791
On April 08 2014 02:32 gumshoe wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 08 2014 02:23 mderg wrote:
On April 08 2014 02:07 gumshoe wrote:
On April 08 2014 02:03 mderg wrote:
On April 08 2014 01:51 gumshoe wrote:
On April 08 2014 01:43 mderg wrote:
Cephiro actually doing anything this game would make this much easier...


What is the motive for cephiro to lurk as scum the day of his lynch? Balla has time and doesn't expect the game to get to him, so he's a different story.

Also mdern, if you bilieve rayn was scum, than me slam and Steve are town. We are all the votes on prplz. Why are scum not dog piling him if he's town?

Furthermore, can you read specifically my and holys exchange? What do you think of him? You really believe poof is scum?

Problem with him lurking is that we can only read prp (getmoript doesn´t seem like an option). And once you look scummy the only way to defend yourself would be to prove you being town, since you can´t prove cephiro being scum.

Can´t be sure about slam since I have no idea what he is thinking at all.
Actually there is one reason I can see why scum wouldn´t jump on prp but it´s pure meta and I want to see the flip before mentioning it, so scum can´t play based on that "knowledge".

More than poof being scum I can only really see holy as town right now.


How? He can't buss here. Please talk to me, holy doesn't know how day 5 will go. He needs to win today to be certain of victory. Also 9 out of 10 hard lurkers are town. I know this because I am that lurker most games, despite that the reason scum don't lurk is because the meta does not favour it, seeing as town lunches lurkers all the time( we did it yesterday dammit)

Holy is a very charismatic player, he will always look townie, don't fall for it ) :

Oh and ray hard pushed slam, he's town.

I have a hard time responding to the bolded part because I´m not sure which part of my post you´re referring to.

I know most lurkers are town. It´s just that in this particular scenario lurking could help him, if he was scum. He also could´ve meta´ed the shit out of us by going against what should be good in the meta. Lurking alone is never a clear tell as either town or scum.

I will definitely reread holys filter. Maybe I can catch something.


If we lynch prplz, doesn't that pretty much confirm holy as scum? Along with the case against prp himself, I think that's a pretty good reason to lynch him / : I'd be the proof people have been clamouring for all game and we still have one more mislynch.

Also don't you find it scummy how he's not even considering prplz? Even remotely? Even though He agrees palm and rayn were scum? He has none of our indecision and yet he's acted as if he was right all game. It's Because he knows he has to win today, or else it comes down to a lylo coin flip on day 5( with the way ballas been goin that is)

It would certainly be difficult to talk his way out of it, then.

I can´t really comment on that right now, since I haven´t read his filter for like 3 days. I´ll have to reread that to 1) confirm what you said about him and 2) get the complete context of his posts. Right now I don´t get these scummy vibes from him.
mderg
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany1740 Posts
April 07 2014 18:51 GMT
#2836
Do I see it correctly that we have to decide between the active and slightly scummy looking prplhz and the inactive and slightly scummy looking Cephiro? Seems really easy to decide... NOT
mderg
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany1740 Posts
April 07 2014 19:03 GMT
#2855
Honestly didn´t see that happening
mderg
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany1740 Posts
April 07 2014 20:24 GMT
#2904
On April 08 2014 05:15 Holyflare wrote:
cephiro has information on palmar being scum and information after palmars lynch that he shouldn't have because he hasn't been here and if he was he could have posted about it

lynch cephiro with fire

He had enough time to catch up on most things, if he did just read this day.
mderg
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany1740 Posts
April 07 2014 20:57 GMT
#2934
Never really wanted to lynch Cephiro. His latest posts also don´t seeem scummy.


##unvote
##vote: prplhz
mderg
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany1740 Posts
April 07 2014 21:24 GMT
#2974
I honestly don´t like this prplhz lynch. It´s going too smoothly


##unvote
##vote: getmoript
mderg
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany1740 Posts
April 07 2014 22:36 GMT
#3051
modkills kinda destroyed this... not that they weren´t called for.
mderg
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany1740 Posts
April 07 2014 23:21 GMT
#3094
I think this game can simply be summarized by the word madness. There was so much shit thrown around at some points that it was incredibly difficult to filter what´s important and good. The whole modkill drama also didn´t help.
I definitely have to step up my game, though.
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