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On February 28 2014 17:01 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2014 16:58 geript wrote:On February 28 2014 16:40 raynpelikoneet wrote:On February 28 2014 16:37 geript wrote:On February 28 2014 16:22 Cavalinho wrote:On February 28 2014 16:18 raynpelikoneet wrote:
And even if Mocsta is mafia, why would Chyz not vote for one of them? One of them gets lynched 100%, why does Chyz NOT take ACTUAL credit for the lynch by hammering scum? It makes no sense to me and that's why i think he is not mafia. Again, this just banks on the fact that mafia might actually be incompetent enough to allow two of their three members to be the ones with the highest votecounts for the first day of play, which is highly unlikely. The only time I've ever seen 2 scum up for lynch was in a hydra game iirc. And that was 99% because of how active and late day shenannies there were. Like town refused as a group to lynch town and balanced on reads and were deciding which of 3 scum to lynch (Sandroba/syllogism got a free pass though). NSB and Raynmaster were the default lynch away from FMB(Prome/someone), WaveofCheesecake and MockArmor. I've read a bunch and I can't think of any other similar situation with both wagons being scum day 1. Again read these: A Quiet game mini mafiaNormal mini mafia Episode 1 Remind me after game but after skimming to see the scum teams, I think that's based more on who the teams were. Besides, Moc has actually had an ok thread presence. Yes but he was not here, suki was not here, when the lynch was actually swung from "we don't know what the fuck to do" into "let's lynch suki/Mocsta". Vivax was on the table, gumshoe, JJD.. They were all on the table at that point.
No Vivax was effectively off because of the claim. Gumshoe, idk I never really felt like he was gaining traction. JJD, idk maybe but like so many people have given him a soft town read at points that I find it hard to believe most people would shift to him. Like it really felt like to me it was Mocsta, suki or me; just that no one wanted to "roll the dice" on me.
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On February 28 2014 17:01 raynpelikoneet wrote:
maybe even you geript, and toad.
Nah toad had no chance of being lynched there was no sentiment towards him whatsoever grumble grumble.
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On February 28 2014 17:11 raynpelikoneet wrote:Here, this is just before my vote on suki. Show nested quote +On February 28 2014 04:34 Balla24 wrote:
Votecount
Mocsta (1) - suki, Holyflare, raynpelikoneet, Vivax, Toadesstern
geript (2) - Toadesstern, TheChyz, Toadesstern
TheChyz (1) - raynpelikoneet, Mocsta, JarJarDrinks, Cavalinho, suki, suki
Toadesstern (1) - Geript, Geript
JarJarDrinks (1) - Geript, Gumshoe
gumshoe (1) - WaveofShadow, Mocsta, JarJarDrinks
WaveofShadow (0) - raynpelikoneet, Vivax
suki (1) - WaveofShadow, Gumshoe, Holyflare, raynpelikoneet
Vivax (2) - WaveofShadow, raynpelikoneet, Mocsta, suki
Vivax is currently set to be lynched. Day 1 ends in .
If any votes are missing or incorrect please let us know!
Do you think this looks like there is some clear direction??
No but vote count doesn't always equal thread sentiment. That JJD vote looks really out of place and sticks out like a sore thumb to me.
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Let me get on my comp Rayn.
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On February 28 2014 17:24 raynpelikoneet wrote:Okay geript, let's drop it for about 5 days or so?  Basically we are arguing if there is a scenario where Mocsta can be mafia or not. That is something that is not relevant until it becomes self-explanatory (when all the scummy people have flipped and the game does not end). Agreed? Let's talk about TheChyz. Do you think he can be mafia?
No it's important gimme a sec
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Votecount
Mocsta (1) - suki, Holyflare, raynpelikoneet, Vivax, Toadesstern
geript (2) - Toadesstern, TheChyz, Toadesstern
TheChyz (1) - raynpelikoneet, Mocsta, JarJarDrinks, Cavalinho, suki, suki
Toadesstern (1) - Geript, Geript
JarJarDrinks (1) - Geript, Gumshoe
gumshoe (1) - WaveofShadow, Mocsta, JarJarDrinks
WaveofShadow (0) - raynpelikoneet, Vivax
suki (1) - WaveofShadow, Gumshoe, Holyflare, raynpelikoneet
Vivax (2) - WaveofShadow, raynpelikoneet, Mocsta, suki
Not Voting (2)- raynpelikoneet, Cavalinho, Ange777
Ok so here's the votecount that you posted (I added in not voting for completeness). Look what happens when you color it in and remove the strikethroughs.
Votecount
Mocsta (1) - Vivax
geript (2) - TheChyz, Toadesstern
TheChyz (1) - suki
Toadesstern (1) - Geript
JarJarDrinks (1) - Gumshoe
gumshoe (1) - JarJarDrinks
WaveofShadow (0) -
suki (1) - Holyflare
Vivax (2) - WaveofShadow, Mocsta
Not Voting (2)- raynpelikoneet, Cavalinho, Ange777
Like I know you're a little iffy about Mocsta in a "save it for later" way, but I'm kinda iffy about gumshoe in the same way so I'm splitting the difference and calling them both green. I think we both agree that Chyz is green so no problem there. Look how pretty a split of scum that is; like this is what I'm used to seeing for a mid-day 1 scum vote split. That feels really good; the problem is the following:
Votecount
Mocsta (5) - Vivax, Toadesstern, JarJarDrinks, [red]suki[red], Cavalinho
geript (1) - TheChyz
TheChyz (0) -
Toadesstern (1) - Geript
JarJarDrinks (0) -
gumshoe (0) -
WaveofShadow (0) -
suki (5) - Holyflare, raynpelikoneet, Gumshoe, WaveofShadow, Ange777
Vivax (1) - Mocsta
When you look at it, this means that for that perfect vote split to be true, scum pretty much went all out to try to save suki. Like usually you don't commit more than 2 people to try and save someone. That means that we still need to look at gumshoe, ange, chyz and mocsta. Like less than Toad, JJD, Cavalinho but there'd normally be a the third scum not on Mocsta in this situation.
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One thing I do feel comfortable saying is that I'm pretty sure Chyz can't be scum if Toad is.
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Like it looks really good until you move it forward.
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On February 28 2014 17:53 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I can't believe Ange is mafia. I just can't believe it. She is good enough to not get suki lynched in that situation.
I'd be really surprised about that too because her posts were like really towny. But LittleTram=gumshoe right? You know where I'm going with this right?
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No my point is more in gumshoe being right. Like ya, I could see wave being scum too but that's really more on his filter being way longer than mine. But no I'm referring to the "Tram is making sense and is therefore scum" heuristic.
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On February 28 2014 17:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:
wait who called gumshoe Tram? I remember someone doing so.
HF I think.
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No I'm talking about little tram from voice. Like it has to be him because he brought but the ban list discussion we had. Like let's dive gumshoe.
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On February 28 2014 18:01 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2014 17:59 geript wrote:
No my point is more in gumshoe being right. Like ya, I could see wave being scum too but that's really more on his filter being way longer than mine. But no I'm referring to the "Tram is making sense and is therefore scum" heuristic. Yeah i can get that but are you referring to Ange or gumshoe possibly being scum with this?
I'm saying we should still expect from Ange but gumshoe making sense on a few specific things, especially how dogmatic he was about the read on me, like we need to take another really serious look at tram. Like it hit me right after the flip and I brushed it off, but I remembered BH posting in scum QT in the game about how he and I should mix it up together but he'd stop short of calling me scum. It reminded me of Gumshoe's softball post toward suki.
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On February 28 2014 18:05 raynpelikoneet wrote:
You heard our conversation @ the GSL game right?
No not that I can recall.
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I'll look at it in the morning Rayn. I'm sweepy tired. His filter is interesting of what I've read.
Either way, we have to promise not to lynch him tomorrow either way. Like I'd feel so awful for lynching him over JJD or Toad and gumshoe flipping town. Like idk if I could ever play a game with him again out of shame of lynching him for playing so amazingly as town.
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On February 27 2014 12:06 gumshoe wrote:Take a shit, cause your full of it.
I gotta admit though, you still probly need ice for this one Rayn.
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Damn I really feel like my townreads are spot on. Like really spot on. Sorry Moc, you know I like you.
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No, I think gumshoe is town. Like no matter how much I want to entertain him being so right he's scum; my townreads have been so extremely solid this game so far that I'm really not concerned with him right now. I'll keep an eye on it but I really really don't think he's scum.
JJD/Toad make the most sense.
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Don't worry gummybear, I got your back. Vivax if you shoot my gummybear then I swear I will lynch you for funsies.
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I want you to admit that I'm a leader and look into toad already wave.
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EPT
