Vayne is very likely to be scum given my reasoning. If both vayne and mig were town, is it really worth it to shoot Mig just to make me look worse, and leave a town with a claimed roleblock alive?

--> Most likely this has not been needed to be compared, as if Vayne was scum, then there is no doubt that Mig is the best shot to make after my given scenario.

It is not 100% certain that Vayne is scum, but it is extremely likely. The fact that you believe that I could still be scum after reading that tells me more than enough.

Scumteam: Oats/Vayne/???

Keep going.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 02:55 GMT

#2002

Wow I just realized Oats is completely missing from the killshot analysis.

He doesn't change the outcome at all though, given his play so far and having been a target for many other players at this point, there is no reason to shoot Oats as scum above other players even if he were town.

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

January 22 2014 02:55 GMT

#2003

If they don't believe it and think it's someone else, the optimal play for their shot is to shoot me.

lol why shoot the obvious mislynch?

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

January 22 2014 02:56 GMT

#2004

On January 22 2014 11:53 Cephiro wrote:
Vayne is very likely to be scum given my reasoning. If both vayne and mig were town, is it really worth it to shoot Mig just to make me look worse, and leave a town with a claimed roleblock alive?

--> Most likely this has not been needed to be compared, as if Vayne was scum, then there is no doubt that Mig is the best shot to make after my given scenario.

It is not 100% certain that Vayne is scum, but it is extremely likely. The fact that you believe that I could still be scum after reading that tells me more than enough.

Scumteam: Oats/Vayne/???

Keep going.

Mig looked so fucking townie.
Scum kills confirmed town/good town.
Vayne is not really confirmed. Mig is good town.

WHICH ONE DO YOU THINK THEY FUCKING KILL?

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

January 22 2014 02:57 GMT

#2005

If both vayne and mig were town, is it really worth it to shoot Mig just to make me look worse, and leave a town with a claimed roleblock alive?

Or is it really worth it to shoot Mig cause he might just catch all of us.

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

January 22 2014 02:57 GMT

#2006

I refuse to believe ceph is this bad.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 02:58 GMT

#2007

On January 22 2014 11:57 Oatsmaster wrote:

Show nested quote +

Or is it really worth it to shoot Mig cause he might just catch all of us.

Scumslip? Thank you.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 02:59 GMT

#2008

##unvote: Vayne
##vote: Oats

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 03:00 GMT

#2009

On January 22 2014 11:55 Oatsmaster wrote:

Show nested quote +

lol why shoot the obvious mislynch?

2) They do not believe my claim -> I have to be a fakeclaiming town.
--> Optimal play to shoot Cephiro. SK would not shoot someone fakeclaiming to be them in this situation.
---> Guaranteed to hit another target than the SK = Instant win if SK does not hit scum.

How hard was it to read?

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

January 22 2014 03:29 GMT

#2010

There are 8 players alive now though.
so even if there is an sk and he shot, it would be 3-1-3 and town+sk still has the majority. So no, the optimal play is to make sure Mig dies.

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

January 22 2014 03:29 GMT

#2011

Also you switched off your read really fast Ceph, dont have confidence huh.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 03:36 GMT

#2012

Having the same numbers of town and mafia members at any point during the day also results in an automatic win for mafia.

^
From the OP.

Yes I have confidence. I'd lynch either you or Vayne right now.

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

January 22 2014 03:46 GMT

#2013

so obviously there is no SK.

Assuming there is no SK and scum knows there is no SK, all your shit is useless, right?

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

January 22 2014 03:47 GMT

#2014

ok so basically you did this fake sk thing to say Vayne is scum?
Like thats all I conclude from your big ass wall of text.
And the ONLY reason you think Vayne is scum is because Mig, someone way more involved and way more likely to push a scum lynch got killed over someone who claimed a roleblock.

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

January 22 2014 03:48 GMT

#2015

Wonderful ceph. Wonderful. Is it really worth claiming SK? Why did you claim SK? What did you gain from that, that you wouldnt gain from the nightkill if you didnt fake claim sk.

Skanjab1s

748 Posts

January 22 2014 08:44 GMT

#2016

Yes, Vayne is definitely scum, I'm like 95% on this.

##Vote: Vayne

Skanjab1s

748 Posts

January 22 2014 08:49 GMT

#2017

Cephiro why do you do these things.

Why Cephiro.

Skanjab1s

748 Posts

January 22 2014 08:51 GMT

#2018

Wait, we should probably massclaim, yes?

Koshi

Belgium38799 Posts

January 22 2014 09:14 GMT

#2019

Mig dieing --> Snowman under pressure.
VA thought he would die --> Puts Snow under pressure.

Cephiro says VA should have died but didn't so VA is scummy --> Puts Snow in the closet.

Imo lynch The evul Snowman. I believe VA is town, Mig is town.

##vote: Sn0_man

Koshi

Belgium38799 Posts

January 22 2014 09:21 GMT

#2020

I explained it poorly. This is better:

Mig says Snowman is scum. Mig gets shot by scum.

If VA is scum with Snowman he is not going to shoot somebody who thinks Snow is scum and then also put Snow under pressure in his "goodbye post". Therefore VA is not scum with Snowman.

So either VA is pushing Snowman misslynch by shooting Mig and then also putting Snow under pressure in his "goodbye post". Or VA is town and Snowman the best lynch.

Skanjab is also scum. He is trying to discredit VA, asked that dumb question about SK yesterday to me.

Cephiro is scum for panicking after shooting Mig and seeing VA list. Like I could even lynch Cephiro first. Because he KNEW that Mig was going to die and had to find something else to go ballistic about. LETS CLAIM SK LULULULUL

##unvote
##vote: Cephiro