I have absolutely no idea and it does not make sense.
I guess he is defending his claim which is impossible unless he tells us why did he decide to claim. "because scum would not do it" is not a reason i accept.

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

January 22 2014 01:02 GMT

#1983

On January 22 2014 09:43 Cephiro wrote:
I will answer that soon enough. Next one:

If I was scum, do you think I would have pulled off this claim without informing my teammates?

--> Follow-up: Do you think a scumteam I belong to would have agreed to let go on with this claim of mine?

how the fuck is this relevent at all? It makes no sense to claim SK AS TOWN WHEN ITS MYLO. It makes sense as scum to confuse the shit out of us, and its not even like you lose the game if you get lynched, town still needs to lynch correctly 2 more times.

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

January 22 2014 01:03 GMT

#1984

If he is town, he is actively playing against his wincon so he cant be town.
##Vote ceph
But seriously what the fuck dude.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 01:28 GMT

#1985

Nono, I am going to win this game for town, believe me. I just have to finish my analysis with the information I have now.

Why I fakeclaimed SK as VT:

If Mig had been scum -> They could have used a roleblock on me (wasted resources)
If they had shot me -> VT taking a hit instead of possibly a remaining blue

If SK had existed:
Draw attention away from the real SK. (If there was one, we would have needed him to play for town).

If none of the above, multiple scenarios, where in each my play is extremely absurd, and followed up with my analysis will ensure every single townie that I am town, thus lessening the mislynch candidates for others by one.

JUST WAIT FOR MY ANALYSIS, TRUST ME TOWNIES, I GOT THIS. YOU HAVE TO GIVE ME A CHANCE TO BLOW YOUR MINDS.

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

January 22 2014 01:29 GMT

#1986

Lol seriously ceph? You thought this was a 2 mislynch game?
Why dont you just claim vig then? Like it makes no sense to claim an anti town role as town.

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

January 22 2014 01:30 GMT

#1987

You know what makes people think you are town? Being actually involved in the game. Which is easily done without fakeclaiming SK.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

January 22 2014 01:32 GMT

#1988

So you assumed Mig is mafia and banked towns game on it?

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

January 22 2014 01:34 GMT

#1989

On January 22 2014 10:30 Oatsmaster wrote:
You know what makes people think you are town? Being actually involved in the game. Which is easily done without fakeclaiming SK.

Funny that you say this. You havn't really been involved in the game at all. You have just said "lol x scum", "lol y scum", "lol z y x scum" - nothing else.

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

January 22 2014 01:38 GMT

#1990

On January 22 2014 10:34 raynpelikoneet wrote:

Show nested quote +

Funny that you say this. You havn't really been involved in the game at all. You have just said "lol x scum", "lol y scum", "lol z y x scum" - nothing else.

And?

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

January 22 2014 01:39 GMT

#1991

lol if mig was scum i would definitely lynch Ceph.

VayneAuthority

United States8983 Posts

January 22 2014 01:40 GMT

#1992

Cephiro Finland. January 22 2014 08:49. Posts 1318

You thought any of those things could happen in less then 10 minutes?

[image loading]

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

January 22 2014 01:41 GMT

#1993

Good point Vayne.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 02:17 GMT

#1994

As for my claim.. these are the 1% situations (Scum believes SK still exists, which was a possibility if SK had hit medic protection or vet, or become roleblocked):

1) They take my claim seriously
--> 1a) [We now know Mig is town] -> They shoot anyone but Me, Mig, or their own team and win. Optimal play.
--> 1b) [If Mig had been scum] -> Roleblock Cephiro -> Avoids their team member being shot, causes a 3-1-3 mafia win if their shot goes through on a townie. This scenario no shot on Hope (vet claim).
If Vayne was a real rb, would have been the most likely target. Optimal play.

2) They do not believe my claim -> I have to be a fakeclaiming town.
--> Optimal play to shoot Cephiro. SK would not shoot someone fakeclaiming to be them in this situation.
---> Guaranteed to hit another target than the SK = Instant win if SK does not hit scum.

As you can see, in the different scenarios if the SK had existed, after my claim most of the optimal plays for scum consist of wasting an action on me.
I am a VT, and a wasted action on me would have been a good thing for town. (Real SK would have lived, possible remaining town powerroles would have lived.)

Then there are the 99% situations where scum goes with Occam's Razor, no SK in game.

1) They know my claim is fake

With information that we NOW have:

Scum has a vigilante.
There is no reason why town vigilante should not have claimed their action before N2 resolution period at latest.
Since there is no SK, this is the only possibility.

This means that scum also knew there is no SK.
The only exception for this would have been if the SK had shot a veteran, or a player under medic protection.
It is very reasonable for scum to assume no SK after N1 results.

--> This means scum knew my claim to be fake. They also know me to be town.
There is absolutely no reason to shoot a player people are already uncertain of.
How does an fake SK claim make from a town perspective?
Logical conclusion: It doesn't.
--> Absolutely no reason to NK Cephiro as town, if anything he looks like a likely mislynch after this.

Spicing it up: Whom of the remaining targets could they shoot to cause a most likely mislynch on D3?
Let's go through all assumptions as town. I tried to look at these from an unknown scumteam perspective.
Note that if any of these players is scum, they obviously would shoot their own, so it's not a possibility worth analysing.

Mig [Town]: Makes Cephiro look even worse. *Good shot*
Hope [Town]: Veteran claim, no reason to risk it and take a shot. *Bad shot*
Vayne [Town]: Roleblocking the same person again is a bad play, it would essentially confirm as town.
Unless try to force a mislynch with the scum rb's their own WIFOM. *Good shot*
Skan/Sno [Town]: Easy mislynch targets, both not very active and have been pressured before. *Bad shots*
Koshi/rayn [Town]: Both players that are considered fairly town. Would require a lot of effort to push for mislynch. *Good shots*

Mig ended up shot. A good play.
Why Mig over other good shots? There are a few conditions that raise the Mig shot value.
1) Other good shots are actually scum players.
2) Other good shots are not on track of real scum.
3) Maximize one target for mislynch.

We know for sure that 3) is true.
Now let's think about it.. why was Koshi/Rayn/Vayne not shot?
Remember that there are also no roleblock claims for D3 yet, which means the mafia probably withheld it for maximum wifom.

Vayne: Looks definitely worst, a previously claimed roleblock, and is still alive.
Koshi/Rayn: Koshi has not been very active, and rayn has been on wrong tracks fairly well so far.

If the choices for good shots were all town, scumteam would be Skan/Sno/Hope.
This is very unlikely however, and it is more likely at least one of the good shots did not get done because there is scum in there.
Vayne is the person I am most surprised of. Given the earlier roleblock, it would have made sense to shoot him if he was town.
Since they shot Mig, it is clear that I am their mislynch target of the day. They hardly could push a mislynch on a roleblocked townie,
counting on the wifom. Thus in my opinion it is very likely that Vayne is mafia.

1) Why would I fakeclaim SK as scum, knowing the situation I am about to claim is impossible.
2) Why would I do this without telling my teammates what I am about to do?
3) Why would they let me carry on with a horrible fakeclaim when I was in no danger of being lynched?

Any remaining town players will know I am town after reading this post. This is a free +1 confirmed townie for you remaining townies out there.
Now you have an easier time of deciding today's lynch when I am outruled as an option.
I also give you an extremely likely mafia in Vayne.

There is absolutely no townie that should be pushing for me after reading this post, which means you can consider anyone wanting to lynch me after this post to be scum.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 02:17 GMT

#1995

##vote: VayneAuthority

Hopeless1der

United States5836 Posts

January 22 2014 02:23 GMT

#1996

SK could have been shot or.role blocked. Aside from not considering those two options the rest of your contrived plan made sense. I'll move my vote to skan later I guess.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 02:33 GMT

#1997

It would never happen. I prove it in my post. Shooting SK is not optimal since they win the game in other situations.

Assuming there is an SK (and we know it's not me):

If the mafia believe my claim, the optimal play is to shoot anyone but me or mig, which would have won them the game.
If they don't believe it and think it's someone else, the optimal play for their shot is to shoot me.

That leaves two options (which I had opened up earlier, thanks for pointing this out)
1) No roleblock -> Hope that the SK hits a town player for instant win. (SK would not shoot me or himself = 3/6 = 50% chance of ending game right there)
2) Roleblock one of remaining four players.

--> 25% chance of hitting SK --> Game will end right away.
--> 75% chance of hitting a townie --> SK has 50% chance of ending the game.

This means roleblocking would have been the optimal choice. This means if they would have feared there to be an SK, they would have used their roleblock last night on the player they assume to be SK.

That also means that if they had not hit the SK, and SK shot scum, we would have one confirmed townie in the player to claim the roleblock. Which actually proves my play as even better.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 02:34 GMT

#1998

Which I had not opened up in my earlier post*

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 02:41 GMT

#1999

Actually there is one more possibility I didn't open up. SK would not have withheld their shot since we entered the night with 8 players. Mafia would always use that shot to try and hit town, to cause a 3-1-3 and win game. That means the SK loses also if he doesn't take a shot, and he is forced to hit mafia. So the possibility of SK not shooting is overruled in my considerations.

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

January 22 2014 02:48 GMT

#2000

lol how in the world does that clear you ceph?
You think Vayne is scum when Mig is 100% shot every fucking time REGARDLESS OF WHETHER VAYNE IS TOWN OR SCUM. You give no proper reasoning for Vayne to be scum other than he didnt die.
You claimed with 10 minutes left, its highlyl improbable that all the scum members were on and discussing it