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On January 23 2014 08:24 VisceraEyes wrote:
gonzaw you have nothing but feels and my absence to point at. Nothing I've done makes me scum, and I've been doing what I can when I can. You're not getting me lynched, and you're certainly not going to keep calling me scum for no reason.
So VE, any revelations from the flip?
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On January 23 2014 08:27 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 08:13 gonzaw wrote:
Although to be honest, marvs vote on Foo was kind of weird. That's why I said that the sandroba lynch wasn't good.
I don't follow. How does marv's vote on you say anything about the sandro lynch?
Vote count: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=41#820At this vote count: Foolishness: 6 Promethelax: 3 Then gonzaw and Austin both vote sandroba. Then Marvellosity votes sandroba. Foolishness: 4 Promethelax: 3 sandroba: 3 Then Hapahauli votes for sandroba Foolishness: 3 Promethelax: 3 sandroba: 4 Then Promethelax votes for sandroba Foolishness: 2 Promethelax: 3 sandroba: 5 Technically Hapahauli had the hammer. But Promethelax voted 1 minute after Hapa did. So yes, Promethelax's vote did not count in the grand scheme of things. Considering that his vote was only a minute after Hapa, he might as well be considered a hammer vote as well.
This would suggest that Prome is town, no? Well assuming that you and Sandro aren't scumbuddies.
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It's one thing to bus 1-2 hours before a lynch. It's an entirely different thing to do so within the 5-minute voteswitch.
Is bussing under such circumstances possible? For sure.
Is it likely? Nope.
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But Wave, rather than speculate on whether a bus could have occurred, which votes do you think are possible bus votes? Surely we have the time to look into this now.
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On January 23 2014 09:17 VisceraEyes wrote:
Whatever just lynch me next, I'll help you guys decide who to lynch after me.
Who do we lynch after you?
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On January 23 2014 09:19 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 09:13 Hapahauli wrote:
But Wave, rather than speculate on whether a bus could have occurred, which votes do you think are possible bus votes? Surely we have the time to look into this now. Of course. I'm not in anyway stating that is for sure what happened, but I'm not crossing it off my list or considering it unlikely. I've seen way too much retarded bussing, and just because of the supposed calibre of player in this game I refuse to discount it. Now considering the lynch happened with only 5 people and gonzaw is all but confirmed town that only leaves the other 4. The 'hammer' happened too quickly for me to put much thought into it. The scenario I could see here is an indignant scumteam member looking at sandro's 'contributions' this game, realizing where it was going once the push began and jumping on for supercred (supercred, considering how most people it seems will be viewing this lynch, ie all 5 voters being likely town considering circumstances), especially since snadro didn't seem to do much to change things after he popped in, spewed some crap and left. The other scenario is sandro giving 'permission' to bus once he himself realized where it was going once gonzaw started up. In terms of likelihood I can't honestly be certain if one scenario seems more likely than another here, as there are many people in this game I have never seen play scum and so marv's saying 'only bad TL scum do this' doesn't mean much.
No no, this is still all speculation. We need to talk about votes.
Which specific votes in particular look like possible bus votes? Which look like town votes?
You can talk all you want about the scumteam, but it's pointless unless you determine which votes are the ones in question.
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@ Wave
OK so we've identified 3 possible bus votes. Marv, myself, and Prome. You apparently don't believe that I'm scum, so what about the other two? What are your reads on Marv and Prome? Is there anything about their voting that's sketchy, or are they just possible bus candidates?
Secondly...
Conclusions: I believe one scum to be on the sandroba wagon---either marv/hapa OR Prome, and one more on Foolishness (or is Toad).
Why can the scum not be on Prome's wagon?
Why is it more likely that there's 1 scum on the sandroba wagon than 0?
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On January 23 2014 09:45 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 09:38 Hapahauli wrote:@ WaveOK so we've identified 3 possible bus votes. Marv, myself, and Prome. You apparently don't believe that I'm scum, so what about the other two? What are your reads on Marv and Prome? Is there anything about their voting that's sketchy, or are they just possible bus candidates? Secondly... Conclusions: I believe one scum to be on the sandroba wagon---either marv/hapa OR Prome, and one more on Foolishness (or is Toad). Why can the scum not be on Prome's wagon? Why is it more likely that there's 1 scum on the sandroba wagon than 0? I have to go back and look at more on marv/Prome in detail when I get a chance.
Do that.
Scum (aside from sandroba) can be on Prome's wagon, I corrected the post.
mmmkay.
As for why it is more likely to be 1 scum on sandroba than 0...call it an educated guess. Scum are pretty damn paranoid about where their votes end up and what better place for a vote to be?
Do you think scum have the time to be paranoid in a 5 minute vote swing?
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Do we really need to waste our time with associations? That's just empty filler that scum can talk about at length. There's a lot of information from the Day 1 lynch, and I'd like to see some non-confirmed townies begin to post and process it.
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Kita, who are the last two scum?
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Anyone around? Things are so quiet =(
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The analysis is nice, but it requires you to assume that Foolishness is town... which I can't get behind 100% yet.
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Stuff before the deadline:
1) Austin's post on Foolishness (above) is really, really good. Foolishness does not get a free pass today, as his attitude towards Sandro on Day 1 was highly suspect.
2) People not getting lynched tomorrow (barring extraordinary circumstances) are myself, gonzaw, austin, marv, and Prome. Prome is basically confirmed town, because a mafia bussing strat on him makes 0 sense. To bus a teammate, you have to believe that the other members of your team can comfortably carry a game. Sandro is not one of those people.
3) WaveofShadow's my top lynch candidate for tomorrow. For his filter size, he's just posted nothing meaningful.
Both of his Day 1 Votes are highly suspect.
His vote on Kita is literally a pure sheep vote:
On January 23 2014 00:08 WaveofShadow wrote:Hmm. Reading Prome's recent summary has actually inspired me, especially given how a few other players have come up with similar concerns about your posting. ##Vote: kitaMy vote on you atm remains independent of my thoughts on Prome at the moment. Whether you want the reads or not I'll go into Prome and Holy now, kita, so thanks for the indirect push on that subject. Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 00:05 kitaman27 wrote:
Prom, are you going to be posting a lot within the next hour? If so, I'll move on to Holy and come back to you. Ehhhhh I still don't understand this.
...as is his vote on Foolishness
On January 23 2014 06:24 WaveofShadow wrote:
Alright final post, I'm feeling better about dropping my vote here.
Call it a sheep of gonzaw or thread sentiment if you want, if not you can use my current line of questions/suspicion including my earlier problems with his first case on me.
This may be one of the most difficult games I've played in, and it's a good kind of difficult.
##Vote: Foolishness
Be back a little bit after deadline.
Adds nothing the thread in either of these. Just adds some fluff/filler to act like he's contributing, followed by a vote.
His attitude towards Sandro is also very strange. For example, he attacks kita here for voting for Sandro...
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=28#551
Read it. It's basically a strange chainsaw defense, that does nothing but discredit kita's post.
Also this is big:
On January 23 2014 04:41 WaveofShadow wrote:
And for the record I probably am probably scummier on inactive Foolishness than inactive sandroba. Could be bias because I have precedent in PYP for sandroba in terms of an early game lurk then blasting onto the scene, but as was mentioend before (I forget by who atm?) sandroba was actively engaging the thread when he was around, whereas Foolishness basically hasn't talked to anyone, he just threw stuff and fucked off multiple times.
The bolded is a big wtf - Sandro engaging the thread while he was around? This trumps up Sandro's contributions greatly, compared to Foolishness, who at the time had posted his giant wall-o-text.
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EPT
