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I've not played that many games with kita and the ones I have (or observed) I've struggled with his alignment too. This could be fun :D
Going through Fool next when I can steal a chunk of time anyways. Nothing bad on coming around on anyone, as long as it's for the right reasons. We need to get today right really. At any rate I think it's reasonably obvious from all the holes that people have been poking that Fool's analysis isn't really "flawless". Whether that makes him scum is obviously a different matter.
Came out of Toad's filter less sure than I'd like, seems he's gained more impetus as the game went on after a really weak start, but there's a sprinkling of wtf posts in there as well. He needs to answer my questions anyways.
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Alrighty. I have chess this evening but should be able to play a bit afterwards.
Prome is definitely being particularly smelly recently.
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On January 25 2014 09:35 Foolishness wrote:
Secnario 2
Foolishness is Mafia
Promethelax is town
This is the only scenario out of the three that the town should be worried about as I didn't want to switch to sandroba and even said so straight up (the reason I didn't want to was because I saw Marv move his vote and I was really sketchy about him at the time. I didn't like what I was seeing last minute and I got super scared it was just town derp switching onto another town). But as I pointed out in my earlier posts what is the mafia doing the entirety of day 1 when I'm accumulating votes? As gonzaw pointed out this would only make sense if the entire mafia team (but myself) is afk (so like, HolyFlare also mafia).
Furthermore, if I'm mafia and Promethelax is town, then wtf is up with sandroba's vote 30 minutes before the deadline? His post wasn't a mafia post trying to save his buddy, that was a mafia pushing what he perceived to be a safe lynch to make his team look pretty for the future days after I flip town or Promethelax flips town.
I think it is even more apparent through the entirety of day 1 as a whole. Where is my mafia team to save me? Are they just afk (we all know mafia games on TL are never that easy)? The only one trying to deflect votes off of me was me. Sure, kitaman and austin both said I was town, but there was never a hard push. It seemed like their attitude was, "yeah Foolishness is town I'm sure, but I got nothing better to propose". Kitaman's push on Promethelax was mediocre at best (in terms of aggressiveness, not content). I was 100% on my own for all of day 1.
Secnario 4
Foolishness is Town
Promethelax is Town
I brought this up before, but go back and read sandroba's case on Promethelax. After sandroba's vote both Promethelax and I had 3 votes apiece (if I'm not mistaken here). Mafia were very very very happy with the votes at this time. Town Foolishness is under scrutiny and about to get lynched, and second in line is another town who Foolishness (apparently well-known scumhunter) is 100% convinced is mafia. Wow find me a happier mafia team on day 1 in a normal or all-vanilla game. Sandroba was not throwing his vote down to save someone or push for any lynch. Mafia were happy with who was getting lynched that day and there was no need to do anything about it.
So these are the two scenarios we're working with effectively. At least in the first scenario, there's some stretching going on there. Specifically to the bolded middle paragraph - if Fool is mafia, then presumably sandroba is going to come in and vote Promethelax over Foolishness. His assertion "His post wasn't a mafia post trying to save his buddy" he uses on the flipside in the 2nd scenario too (see bold). So it kinda comes down a little bit to sandroba's posts around then. What was sand doing? A fake push? A real vote? Given how awful sandroba is at mafia, I don't see much reason why his voting for Prome wasn't "authentic" - I mean, he actually went and found a quote from a different game and everything, for sand that's quite the effort... it seems that the assumptions that Fool is pushing at us collapse around here.
Underlined stuff more for irritation value - kita being on prome and sticking there (also despite voting sand before) and Holy being afk. They both fit with a mafia Fool. Annoyingly doesn't get us so far.
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On January 26 2014 07:40 Foolishness wrote:
No, WoS turn around on Promethelax is not congruent with a town mindset, and this is what I meant by he's ignoring key information about the lynch. That is a mafia agenda to push, he doesn't want to bring light to the things the day 1 votes say (such as the 5 people voting for sandroba should be confirmed town).
Fool, what's the point in Wave doing this as mafia when literally noone agreed with him and it just made him stick out from the crowd?
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On January 26 2014 07:43 Foolishness wrote:
Let me clarify again that I am perfectly happy with VE getting lynched. I just have a strong read on WoS and VE's frustration makes sense as a town frame of mind.
When you say things like, "VE didn't push a lynch day 1, he wasn't accomplishing anything with his posts, he has since been not contributing" I have nothing to say except, "yep, I agree". I am not deflecting off his lynch, I just think WoS is slightly better and will tell us more. If you guys are convinced that VE needs to die now and that WoS is town I will gladly ablige; I've even admitted I could be wrong on both accounts.
On January 26 2014 07:58 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 07:53 kitaman27 wrote:
Didn't you want to lynch Holy before sandroba? Has Toad's play changed your mind on him or is it just that WoS's and VE's play is just much worse since then? Yes I did. I thought Holy was mafia based on his posts and his replacement posts. After the lynch I went back and reread them and thought "okay I can see him as town saying these things even if they are suspect". As I said earlier I go back and forth on his posts. Toad seems like he's trying to figure things out, and even if I don't agree with his arguments he's doing things for the town and VE is not. I can't argue against VE here. I'm very confident about my read on WoS at this point, it will be reevaluated for the following day because he should be lynched asap.
This is so so wonky
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On January 26 2014 09:45 Foolishness wrote:Gonzaw I'm not answering or responding to anything you say until you answer my question to you: Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 08:56 Foolishness wrote:
Question for you now: this isn't the first time I've explained something and you said you were "not convinced". Furthermore, when I bring up facts and thoughts about the game thus far you seem to ask questions about other related things instead of bringing up my points directly and either refuting them or disagreeing with them. This tells me that you are actually in agreement with a lot of things that I'm saying and are just trying to look for things about me that may or may not be there. Are you so concerned about the slim chance of me being mafia that you are willing to sacrifice the good of the town just to make sure?
On January 26 2014 09:47 Foolishness wrote:
And I'd suggest you answer that question very carefully.
On January 26 2014 10:01 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 09:58 gonzaw wrote:
1)Show me which times I was "not convinced" about direct stuff that I apparently agreed on
2)Just because you make sense on somethings it doesn't mean you are town (for instance the "vote analysis"). Oops! Wrong answer.
This is even wonkier though, seems like Fool is threatening gonzaw, or gonzaw is suspicious, or something? But then immediately following these posts Fool is treating gonzaw as town again.
What do you make of this Wave? (or anyone about who cares to read)
None of Fool's recent posting reads like it comes from a townie, from his intransigence on the Wave read (along with the rationale), to the being ok but not ok but ok with the VE lynch, to being sure about Wave but saying he might be wrong, to the weird threats to gonzaw. I am frowning.
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On January 28 2014 00:44 kitaman27 wrote:
For someone who says that every post of his has a purpose, those were pretty useless. If they were addressed towards austin. you or myself, then I'd wouldn't mind it as much, but if he is still suspicious of gonzaw by day three, then he isn't paying attention.
marv, where do you stand on the final two mafia? I feel like you have been on the fence for a while. I know I'm guilty of the same thing, but I feel like another perspective may help.
Is austin still on your untouchable list? Same question for austin, is marv still untouchable? The reason I'm asking is because we're potentially once cycle away from lylo. Out of the prom, austin, marv group, it seems like Prom has been the least helpful this game, but I'm still having a tough time thinking how a double bus makes sense with him and sandroba.
Yep I'm somewhat fence-sitty right this moment, gonna be until at least after I look at your dense filter (will do that after chess, got work stuffs atm to commit that much time).
Fool+Toad is where i'm sitting. Not 100% confident in either so maybe trying to eliminate outliers will help... namely you.
I'd still be very surprised if Prome was mafia. If he is then mafia did some #retardplays day 1, and i don't think they're retards.
Finding it hard to believe austin could be mafia as well. His paranoia-levels regarding me seem to be pitched just right. We have a history and I think how he's treated me in general is super hard to fake. I've not been frowning when he's been niggling at me.
We've had one unfortunate lynch, don't really want to throw away everything I've thought about and believed up until now when there are still actual likely mafia on the table.
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game is hard yo
If Fool and Wave don't make sense to you as a team, than presumably by mutual exclusion one of them has to be town, but you're still suspicious of both by the looks of things. So which is it? And if kita is the common factor between both of them, why aren't you pushing kita as confirmed mafia?
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On January 28 2014 01:33 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2014 00:56 marvellosity wrote:
Fool+Toad is where i'm sitting. Not 100% confident in either so maybe trying to eliminate outliers will help... namely you.
I think that's the most likely pair right now, but there is some degree of distancing between the two. Toad is attacking Foolishness, while Foolishness wants to bring Toad to lylo. I'll need to see if it seems likely that Toad is pushing the Foolishness lynch with the hopes of winning a 2v1 endgame, if he is town and has a legitimate scum read on Fool, or if he is mafia with another player that we're overlooking. At one point foolishness argues that we shouldn't consider lynching sandroba, while Holy is still around. Do you think it makes sense to attack one inactive scum buddy, while defending the other, which could be a risk if the wrong one flips first? Or is it more likely that he simply doesn't see Holy flipping that cycle after the replacement has been announced so he feels safe doing so?
I think we just need to find one mafia and lynch it. Combinations can help to a degree, but we should give less weight to interactions that happened post D1. When mafia gets lynched D1 and a bunch of people look good for it, scum are likely going to have to be unconventional to a degree, and part of that is potentially funky interactions with each other.
Just generally wrt replacements, TL towns almost never lynch replacements the phase they replace in.
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the absolute worst thing about this toad-Wave exchange is that I now have to read it again to actually work out what the fuck is going on. Thanks guise
P.S i won for a change \o/
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Toad, who is mafia? What did *you* get out of that exchange with Wave as far as Wave's alignment goes?
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no, that makes you bad prome, not me.
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A scum will have read teh scum qt and, therefore, some form of the thoughts of the man he is replacing and lying unnecessarily is chump play as scum.
you literally provide evidence of how it is possible for a mafia player not to have read his predecessor's posts, and then say it screams town. Can you see that?
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Prome what do you think a town-toad is doing with his suspicions of Wave here? I think you've over-metad.
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On January 23 2014 05:10 kitaman27 wrote:
The part of Foolishness's play that makes him most likely to be mafia this game is his disregard for his town image. Even in the games where he is a slow starting townie, he still puts a priority on avoiding the day one mislynch by making it clear that he is town. He has never been mislynched as town, so allowing this to happen in a shadow game would be seem to be out of character.
I think it's pretty likely that he hasn't checked back since his last large post, so I'm not sure I'm willing to come to the conclusion that he doesn't care, rather than assuming he isn't around. I do believe that it was PTP2 where he simply disappeared and we flipped him on day 2, leaving us pretty underwhelmed, so it's not out of the question.
kita, how do you feel about this line of thinking at this stage of the game?
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nice final quote there kita 
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Without looking at specifically what Prome said, the way Toad has talked about Foolish this past cycle or so has been one of the plus points in his filter for me. The way he dealt with Fool way earlier was pretty retarded, but that's just retarded. Fool read evolution + Venn diagram are probably the best two things I can say about toad I think.
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I'm still on page 6 of your filter kita. So dense t.t
Anything more specific on austin?
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the only thing that made me at all paranoid about austin was when he said "i only bust my ass when my mafiateam is losing" sort of thing. Seems a weird sort of thing to say if you're planning on afking for quite a while though
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EPT
