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Started diving Pandain, and got bored half-way through. + my fav target is getting votes, so this feels pointless currently.
I'm spoilering what I wrote, but a lot of feels like conspiracy theory. Which i suppose is hallmarks of decent scum play.
Prob my biggest concern from the filter is Sn0_Man for something I suppose could be minor.
As for mattchew, dunno right now, pandain is consistent with his story (ET, Palmar, Mattchew) so i dont believe that makes him town alone. But I do get that its weird for scum to hedge their bets by consistently pushing 2 scum, 1 town. That alone is prob enough to make Mattchew a low priority currently.
##Unvote
##Vote: BlazingHand
+ Show Spoiler +As follows: Pandain(1)Vayne, I agree with Hopeslss that Vayne is cleared for now. My take is related to his intro stating that Vayne is hard to read -> his push on ET, Palmar, MAttchew, -> and then his willingness to bandwagon yam and vote vayne. (2) List post On October 18 2013 05:05 Pandain wrote:
I love StorrZerg's last post and he's town in my eyes.
Which leaves these people:
Sn0
Vayne
Echelon
Onegu
Tunkeg
Palmar
I-be-Pro
Stutters
JAT.
This is important as it identifies that Pandain had no issues with bussing. Whether that is by light distancing (e.g. here), or calling out ET directly. Further, Pandain filter has been consistent. If he called someone scum early game, he has maintained that read to late-Day1 (applies to both Palmar, ET & Mattchew) Thus, Hopeless1der giving Mattchew credit for being referenced in-line with EchelonTea I think is not a credit at all, but null. (3) Follow up to list post On October 18 2013 05:09 Pandain wrote:
The people who contributed greatly earlier on in the thread were:
Hopeless
Last Argument
Skanjabs
Yamato
I have town reads on all of these people and others, upon analyzing them, should confirm/deny this from their own perspective.
I also would like it if someone took the time to summarize their House QT for the thread.
I thought this was interesting, because I did not think any of these were *great* contributors early game. I'm not sure what to make of it, but given this post was made by scum. I find it hard to believe that this list of "non-touchables" would be all green. Out of the 3 remaining, skanjabs is my best read. So it is of high probability there is a mafia between Hopeless/Yamato. My gut leans Hopeless; as I have given Yamato a fair bit of slack for being in the champions game simultaneously. Will have to think about this more. If my conclusions on pandain align with Hopeless, perhaps I will need to start seriously considering Yamato. (4) This is to HolyFlare On October 18 2013 10:06 Pandain wrote:
I liked all your posts except Sn0man played very much like this in one of the previous games I played with him so I don't think day one will be the best day to pin him.
Agree with Stutters and Palmar. This was in response to: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=431052¤tpage=43#859This is interesting because Palmar is town, and Stutters likely town. Why the need to give them scum reads, and only Sn0Man a town read? Odd post in general.
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On October 20 2013 08:46 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On October 20 2013 08:43 syllogism wrote:
That Mocsta case on Mattchew is up there among the least convincing cases I've read in this game. It appears to amount to "mafia briefly discussed something fairly irrelevant with another player, therefore that player is mafia". Could Mocsta actually believe that is a reasonable reason for suspecting someone, not to mention be his number one suspect, or is that a case made by a mafia who is under suspicion and just had three of his teammates flip on n?. Syllo, You say you want to policy lynch me; and now you are talking about mafia mindset. What is your actual problem with my play?
I'm outta here.
Syllo, I would still like a response to this.
Thanks,
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On October 21 2013 08:34 StorrZerg wrote:
can syllo and mocasta name claim at this point?
no I won't
rayn
I know what ceph meant. 6 of us know.
but we are not allowed to talk about it. I don't know what the consequences are though.
sorry.
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Nope. If anything I think it's a scummy power. But that's a guess.
I don't know the outcome of the power. Just the input
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Ok I reread pm. I think the speaking restriction is not a mod addition.end of mighty 1 me and 5 others were put in a group with a leader.
That leader is cephiro.
Pandain , last argument, toad, me and ceph
Only me and ceph live.....
Ceph apparently gets stronger when ppl in the group die.... Odd that pandain was in it then.
Could ceph be the sk?
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4 others.. group totals to 5 with ceph.
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I just said. Got the message night 1.
Header. Anonymous message.
It specified keywords in the thread to communicate.
Notice. cpehiro. Me. Toad. All used the word "charm" suddenly.
Anyways. Said we couldn t talk about it but I think that's actually an addition by the writer not the host.
The group was referenced as dumbledore army.
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A very small point in bh favour is that in the qt he asked for a summary linking to key posts/cases.
I asked for that when replacing into got as town. And people thought it was scummy.
So makes sense a town choosing to do that in the qt vs thread. It's a small point of course.
Thus, If I back off bh solely on this...I.e. waiting for more from him
I would swap to either cephiro based on rayn pointing out shoddiness of list post and the Dumbledore army stuff
Or
Yamato as I was only giving him credit for being in the champion game. I agreed with ska jab day1 case then, and still do now.
If we work off hufflepuff ha ing 1 scum.
I liked holyflare since day1 and don't want to vote him.
Would be Mattchew.
Can't be hopeless as he went out of his way to clear mattchew post cop reveal. That makes hopeless a bigger target by process of elimination.
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Palmat is not in it
Just
Pandain, lastargument, mocsta, toad, and captain
Cephiro used a key word night1 identifying him as captain.
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Palomar pm is not relevant because that is mod generated.
Whereas the message I got I am certain was written by cephiro now.
I received my pm about 5min after cycle post..so it suggests cephiro was aware of the phrase Dumbledore army.
He's prob a good option for sk...and fits into rayn theory of being in his house. Also explains why his emotion felt real.
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On October 19 2013 05:21 Cephiro wrote:
I don't even.....
My newly-found lovers will understand why I don't know whether to laugh or cry, chances of this co-incidence happening is too small to be true.
The thing is, as charming as I am, this relationship is smart and works one-way only. And I will meet you all only once a day. I don't have time for more. This is why you must use the words of our secret love if you want to talk to me in public without others knowing. Or each other, if you want to surprise me with a menage-a-trois. Please do not be afraid to sacrifice yourselves for my love, as I will grow stronger for the sacrifices you make. ♥
As for a non-roleplay note: It's unfortunate that the lynch ended up like this, but I will redeem my play and ensure this won't happen again. On October 20 2013 05:12 Cephiro wrote:
Haha, that is absolutely amazing! 3 scum dead by the start of D2? And I just got more powerful too. Tis be great.
Blue ==> This is Cephiro stating that he is in the "Dumbledore Army" group and is the unspecified pm "captain"
Red ==> Cephiro suggests he becomes more powerful as the group diminishes... This is the re-stated post night-cycle where 3 of the 4 members die.
============
As I stated, I have no idea what the outcome of "being stronger" is.
All I know is that the PM sent was manipulative (in that it asked us not to speak about it in the thread unless we use the codewords.. and that it would be all explained the next day).
I suppose technically it was explained via the posts that Cephiro made. I know in Personality2, we had a Sleeper Cell power where we could group 3 random people, and they had the power to group vote a KP. It was a scum power.
============
In hindsight of the flips, Rayn is right.. Cephiro list post was really bad.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20011990
Note: Dumbledore Army: Pandain + LastArgument + Mocsta + Toad
From his notes:
3. Pandain - Probably Town
12. I-be-Pro - Seems ok, good points. Pro-town. Setup speculation.
Thinks his role is anti-town.
19. Mocsta - Self-aware Miller claim. Seems like town. Would fit within theme.
(Good guy Slytherin looks bad because Slytherin?) Plays pro-town. Coin?
17. LastArgument - Valid point, I like. Coin?
All these people are town reads, yet are required to die to progress Cephiro.
On one hand you could argue he expected these people to be shot/lynched, thus was trying to rush to maximising the strength of his power.. however; realistically, I only expect LastArgument to satisfy that criteria (possibly myself as well).
I dont think anyone expected pandain to be shot/lynched; nor Toad.
On the other hand, I would have expected town to diversify the role requirements (i.e. 1 or 2 townies expected to die Night 1 + an obvious scum read + an obvious lynch candidate). Without knowing his role PM, I believe this is how I would have gone about it?
Then note that he appears obsessed with this "coin."
21. Hopeless1der - A bit more careful in the G+2H discussion. Town?
Interesting ability speculation. Reasonable in his opinions. Coin?
Maybe not very tricky?
So why is Pandain/Toad (coinless reference) in the group instead of Hopeless1der
So in summary
I dont see much risk in a mislynch this cycle, as we already downed 3 scum so are relatively ahead. (Obviously I would prefer to avoid this and clean sweep from here out)
So the main risk I see in lynching Cephiro is: he is close to maxing out his power (pending my death) and he could be a super town role?
The opposite also applies: he could be scum close to maxing out a super anti-town role.
Note: Scum already have lost a very powerful wizard role in Pandain + we have a JOAT claim from a townie looking person. Thus even if Cephiro is town, I dont think we necessarily need that power to compensate for a town deficiency.
Hence, I think the risk/reward points towards a Cephiro lynch.
##Unvote
##Vote: Cephiro
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On October 21 2013 09:37 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On October 21 2013 09:27 Mocsta wrote:
Palomar pm is not relevant because that is mod generated.
Whereas the message I got I am certain was written by cephiro now.
I received my pm about 5min after cycle post..so it suggests cephiro was aware of the phrase Dumbledore army.
He's prob a good option for sk...and fits into rayn theory of being in his house. Also explains why his emotion felt real.
You are aware that Sno gave an explanation for the night kills without a SK?
Yeah I did read it, but was on phone so haven't had a chance to mull it over.
We can safely assume that ET knew he was linked to Toad.
So it does seem likely ET was killed due to this power from Sn0 and him using the 0.5KP. This would then also apply to Pandain.
The other option is that a SK took out Pandain & a town vig took out ET, thus taking out Toad.
Due to the quantity of NKs; Sn0's "power" seems more plausible.
So: LoneMeow/LastArgument/Supersoft.
Now: If 3 scum are dead, I would expect KP to be 1 as per OP (but depends on how hosts resolve night actions). Lets say KP is still 2.. we still require that 2 KP to be delivered by members that were not dead (probably same resolution process as above). So assume 2 KP; LastArgument makes a lot of sense. With Syllo a likely medic save, Supersoft also makes sense. So OK, then a vig of some sort on LoneMeow.
Thats A LOT of KP though; and its also interesting to note that Cephiro wrote nothing about LoneMeow in his list post.
So we come back to whether
LoneMeow was taken out by town vig power; or SK.
I don't think Cephiro can be easily dismissed as an SK (and I would prefer a town vig not to claim the kill, as they probably not 1-shot).
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On October 20 2013 05:12 Cephiro wrote:
Haha, that is absolutely amazing! 3 scum dead by the start of D2? And I just got more powerful too. Tis be great. I wanted to add that this statement is *VERY* misleading.
The assertion is that: 3 scum are dead & I am more powerful.
For those that do not know about his "Dumbledore Army" it is easy to 'gap analyse' this as... AWESOME, cephiro is town because 3 scum are dead and now he is more powerful.
This is not the case at all; rather.. 3 members of his group died, thus, he became more powerful.
Very misleading; and again, not a comment/assertion I would expect from a town player.
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[QUOTE]On October 21 2013 10:15 StorrZerg wrote:
Has Cephiro been posting in the QT?
if so is it possible Cephiro cannot post unless he has votes on himself? maybe being the vote leader?
(maybe he can only post at night because of this)
Cause he only started posting when he got a lead in votes iirc
[QUOTE]On October 20 2013 05:12 Cephiro wrote:
Haha, that is absolutely amazing! 3 scum dead by the start of D2? And I just got more powerful too. Tis be great.[/QUOTE]
/QUOTE]
Was this not quoted at the start of Day2? He was not a vote leader.
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EBWOP
On October 21 2013 10:15 StorrZerg wrote:
Has Cephiro been posting in the QT?
if so is it possible Cephiro cannot post unless he has votes on himself? maybe being the vote leader?
(maybe he can only post at night because of this)
Cause he only started posting when he got a lead in votes iirc
On October 20 2013 05:12 Cephiro wrote:
Haha, that is absolutely amazing! 3 scum dead by the start of D2? And I just got more powerful too. Tis be great.
Was this not quoted at the start of Day2? He was not a vote leader.
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On October 21 2013 10:20 StorrZerg wrote:
hmmm
well is policy lynching him good then because he is failing to live up to his word on scum hunting?
It probably comes down to
Cephiro
OR
Someone in Hufflepuff due to house check.
OR
Yamato
Im willing to give BH another cycle to man up
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On October 21 2013 10:27 Grackaroni wrote:
JAT why did you say Palmar should be in Dumbledore's army?
Lol.. read what I wrote after where I comment its irrelevant as it was mod-generated.
Whereas with the anonymous PM i received: that was forwarded to the group via the mods.
But was almost certainly a message concocted in full by the "Captain" --> Cephiro
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On October 21 2013 10:30 Grackaroni wrote:
ok I dont really know what to think of this. Idk why mafia or third party would openly reveal that they are benefiting from people in their group dying.
Fair call; however, the reverse can be said.
Why would town openly reveal that members of their group dying benefit them & then choose 4 people you had strong town reads on (according to the list post)? I think as either alignment, there was no requirement to notify anyone that he would become stronger.
For me, hes creating a rouse and merely following through with it.
Now, if he included scum reads in his group.. I can understand the intentional misleading attitude (rouse).
However, with 4 strong town reads, this is a very odd approach to grouping us together.
He could have just stated the outcome in the anonymous message PM.
Then, maybe you can argue that he created the process of using code-words to talk so scum wouldn't figure out to shoot Cephiro. However, this is still rebutted by the above. If 4 strong town reads; tehre is no need for this elaborate scheme.
The whole approach just plays out as anti-town in my opinion.
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On October 21 2013 10:33 Grackaroni wrote:
I wish he was here to tell us what is going on but I'm leaning against killing Cephiro.
Who then?
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EPT
