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Forum Index > TL Mafia
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FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
September 24 2013 09:18 GMT
#30
/in
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
September 25 2013 06:58 GMT
#56
The police role looks really awesome. Can't wait for this game.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
September 27 2013 03:43 GMT
#353
Hey guys, I'm gonna read this thread after TL Noir so don't votepile me just yet. I'll be back soon.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
September 27 2013 06:18 GMT
#422
Ok, my first impressions are that Yamato, WoS, and VE look super town. Grack is probably scum. His posting is terrible.

I've never played a legit game with BH or Palmar, so I can't read them yet.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
September 27 2013 06:35 GMT
#425
Okay, so my best scum read right now is ShiaoPi. He's been around, but hasn't contributed. His filter is all one liners with basically no substance. Now, I know ShiaoPi is a lot better than how he's playing right now. I want to know why he is playing below is full potential.
Filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=429897&user=ShiaoPi


RNG debate.

Statistically, it is a great idea to randomly choose a day one lynch. There are 6 scum between us. 6/20= .3
I don't think the best scumhunters among us can lynch with greater accuracy on Day 1 than 30%. However, I also don't think there is any method by which we can decide a fair way to choose a random kill. We would need an unbiased party to use random.org or something. We don't have any confirmed town, so discussing this topic is pointless.

Lynching randomly is impractical and unfeasible. Stop wasting time discussing this pointless topic.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
September 27 2013 06:37 GMT
#427
##Vote: ShiaoPi
...and I'm off to bed!
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
September 27 2013 06:38 GMT
#428
On September 27 2013 15:36 Grackaroni wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 27 2013 15:18 FirmTofu wrote:
Ok, my first impressions are that Yamato, WoS, and VE look super town. Grack is probably scum. His posting is terrible.

I've never played a legit game with BH or Palmar, so I can't read them yet.

Thanks for the detailed explanations. Care to explain?

We've already discussed you quite enough. There are at least 5 other scummers out there. I'm interested in discussing as many people as possible. I'll discuss you if you end up being the #1 or #2 candidate later in the day.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
September 27 2013 06:41 GMT
#432
On September 27 2013 15:39 Grackaroni wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 27 2013 15:38 FirmTofu wrote:
On September 27 2013 15:36 Grackaroni wrote:
On September 27 2013 15:18 FirmTofu wrote:
Ok, my first impressions are that Yamato, WoS, and VE look super town. Grack is probably scum. His posting is terrible.

I've never played a legit game with BH or Palmar, so I can't read them yet.

Thanks for the detailed explanations. Care to explain?

We've already discussed you quite enough. There are at least 5 other scummers out there. I'm interested in discussing as many people as possible. I'll discuss you if you end up being the #1 or #2 candidate later in the day.

Well I can't just sit here and let you call me scum without giving any reasoning.

You can, and you will.

I'm going to actually go to bed now. ^_^
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
September 27 2013 17:59 GMT
#704
##Unvote
Reading.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
September 27 2013 18:01 GMT
#709
On September 27 2013 15:42 Blazinghand wrote:
FT your objection that RNG can't truly be random is missing the real point of RNG

Explain this to me BH. If RNG isn't practically applicable in this game, what use is it to discuss it? You want to spend time discussing what we would do if we were able to truly randomly decide a lynch? What purpose does that serve?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
September 27 2013 18:05 GMT
#717
On September 27 2013 15:45 Blazinghand wrote:
Like, the reason the vote on shiaopi is a shit vote is because of how you're framing it. "ShiaoPi is playing below full potential" when the dude was only in thread for an hour and dropped some one-liners is bad reasoning. Like, instead say "ShiaoPi is lurking" because the reason you're voting for him doesn't have shit to do with his potential, or one-liners, or whatever. You're voting him because he was only in-thread for an hour, and barely posted. You're voting him for lurking.

If you're gonna policy a guy for lurking, man up and admit it. Don't try to look like you have some serious analysis going on, FT-- you don't.

Of course it is a shit vote. I wanted ShiaoPi to contribute. It has served its purpose from what I can tell of ShiaoPi's filter. It provided the impetus for a contributing ShiaoPi. That, in itself, is reason enough to justify my actions.

I knew my "reasoning" was weak at best. Consider my motivations of my action; consider the result I am trying to get.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
September 27 2013 18:07 GMT
#725
Can someone explain to me how we can randomly choose a lynch target? Please, enlighten me.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
September 27 2013 18:30 GMT
#766
##vote: Koshi
I'm keeping my word here. BH's solution to the RNG problem is quite inventive. I will double check if it was truly random, but if it was I'm sticking with Koshi.

30% are pretty good odds.

BH, why aren't you voting Koshi?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
September 27 2013 18:38 GMT
#771
Anyone who supports RNG, myself included, should still scumhunt and make full use of the day. There is still much to say and much to find. Anyone who stops scumhunting should be subject to lynch as well.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
September 27 2013 18:38 GMT
#773
On September 28 2013 03:35 WaveofShadow wrote:
And where is Rayn?

Absent and defending me. Everytime that's happened, he's been scum.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
September 27 2013 18:43 GMT
#777
Blazinghand is town. He's actively pushing the thread forward and his read on on me seems genuine. Forcing people to take sides on the RNG debate was a brilliant idea. Helps us out a great deal by holding people accountable for their empty stances. He's completely wrong about me, but his sincerity is clearly apparent.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
September 30 2013 07:42 GMT
#1690
I'm sorry for my long absence. I'll try to make myself available in the coming days.

I want to talk about ShiaoPi again. Here are the facts.

1) ShiaoPi was pretty useless in the early game. He showed up for about an hour with a few one liners and promptly left the thread.

2) After I accused him, he immediately changed his posting style. You can see the transition in his filter.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=429897&user=ShiaoPi

3) His first "contributory post" was one that basically buddied BH's sentiment that I was somewhat scummy.

4) Then, he posts about Grack in a detached manner. Stating random facts that do more to appear useful instead of actually being useful.

5) The rest of his filter is just random accusations thrown at Koshi and more one liners.

The key takeaway here is that ShiaoPi is content to go back to shitposting as long as no one is accusing him directly. He doesn't care to scumhunt in this game. All of his posts have been defensive. His read on Koshi is unsubstantiated and useless. There is nothing in his filter that is redeeming in the slightest. Scum.

##vote: ShiaoPi
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
September 30 2013 07:42 GMT
#1691
Wow all that happened while I was typing lol.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
October 01 2013 03:47 GMT
#1879
On October 01 2013 06:05 Koshi wrote:
I meant like "yeah, fuck the world, again..."
Like I wouldn't be surprised cuz it's FT.

Titanic: Pretty good play by FT. Good filter/good everything
Persona: FT didn't bother too much. But it was okish. Decent filter.
Desert: Didn't follow it closely but it was really bad town right, he had 1 page filter.

So I feel like it is Desert in this game. 1 page filter.
It seems FT is a bit more tryhard as scum?

My alignment != activity
I've just suddenly had a lot of work piled on top of me and I simply cannot devote as much time to this game as I previously intended. I understand why I'm such an easy lynch right now and I won't blame town for lynching me, but honestly, ShiaoPi's filter is like 10 times worse than mine and I'm a bit disappointed everyone thinks I'm a better lynch than he is.

Regardless, I will do my best to redeem myself right now.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
October 01 2013 03:59 GMT
#1881
On September 28 2013 18:01 Chairman Ray wrote:
Oh, only 11 hours left. I definitely won't be here tomorrow for endgame, so I'm gonna stay up late tonight to try to catch up.

I've lightly skimmed through posts so far, and I take it that Koshi is winning votes because of RNG? Filtering through his posts, it's pretty clear that he's aggravated by this decision by town. I'm gonna put myself in his shoes for a sec. If I was town, and everyone was gonna RNG lynch me, then I would just be like wtf... I definitely wouldn't be angry since it's not due to my own lack of skill or other people's misreads, but sheer luck instead. Once I flip town, then the townies will just feel really stupid for doing it and I'd be okay with that. Now what if I was in Koshi's shoes and I was mafia? I would probably be a bit aggravated to push town off me, and if I flip red, then people will probably celebrate at my expense. (1)But the thing is that I am not Koshi, so I don't share his feelings or thought process, so this read might be off. To people that have played with Koshi before, would you expect this kind of behavior from town or mafia Koshi? I definitely think that by his behavior, he is more likely mafia.

(2)Another thing that's consistent with Koshi being mafia is that there are others trying to save him. If Koshi were town, then it could be possible that there is no effort to save him, light effort to save him, or heavy effort to save him. Anything is possible. If Koshi were mafia, I would bet that his mafia buddies wouldn't give up on him so easily, especially on D1. Since the RNG thing is so stupid, then his mafia buddies could easily make a case for it and not seem scummy in the process. So if Koshi were mafia, I would bet that there is some heavy effort to save him. Right now, we do see some heavy effort, in the form of the yamato train. Although this could happen if Koshi was either town or mafia, I suspect it is more likely if he were mafia.

Because of these reasons, I think there's a good chance that Koshi is actually scum, and we got really lucky with the RNG.

Just for now
##Vote: Koshi

I will be up for a bit more reading through posts. I would like to think about it a bit more before leaving for the night with a read that came from RNG.

This post reads like, "I want to look like I'm contributing, without actually contributing" There is a lot of posturing and needless speculation.

See (1) Why does CR feel the need to create a fallback option? If the whole purpose of this post was to draw attention to Koshi, why does he feel the need to say that his "read may be off"?

See (2) This is the equivalent of an association case. Just because people are defending Koshi does not mean Koshi is scum. The rest of this paragraph relies on pure speculation and provides us nothing of value.

I think ShiaoPi is still a better lynch, but I want more people talking about CR.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
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