Thug Life Mini Mafia - Page 281

On October 09 2013 10:24 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Hihi

Haven't read anything since my last post right after the lynch. Checked who died. Anything cool happen?

On October 09 2013 23:27 raynpelikoneet wrote:

The timing of this post is kinda interesting. What do you guys think?

On September 28 2013 18:01 Chairman Ray wrote:
Oh, only 11 hours left. I definitely won't be here tomorrow for endgame, so I'm gonna stay up late tonight to try to catch up.

I've lightly skimmed through posts so far, and I take it that Koshi is winning votes because of RNG? Filtering through his posts, it's pretty clear that he's aggravated by this decision by town. I'm gonna put myself in his shoes for a sec. If I was town, and everyone was gonna RNG lynch me, then I would just be like wtf... I definitely wouldn't be angry since it's not due to my own lack of skill or other people's misreads, but sheer luck instead. Once I flip town, then the townies will just feel really stupid for doing it and I'd be okay with that. Now what if I was in Koshi's shoes and I was mafia? I would probably be a bit aggravated to push town off me, and if I flip red, then people will probably celebrate at my expense. But the thing is that I am not Koshi, so I don't share his feelings or thought process, so this read might be off. To people that have played with Koshi before, would you expect this kind of behavior from town or mafia Koshi? I definitely think that by his behavior, he is more likely mafia.

Another thing that's consistent with Koshi being mafia is that there are others trying to save him. If Koshi were town, then it could be possible that there is no effort to save him, light effort to save him, or heavy effort to save him. Anything is possible. If Koshi were mafia, I would bet that his mafia buddies wouldn't give up on him so easily, especially on D1. Since the RNG thing is so stupid, then his mafia buddies could easily make a case for it and not seem scummy in the process. So if Koshi were mafia, I would bet that there is some heavy effort to save him. Right now, we do see some heavy effort, in the form of the yamato train. Although this could happen if Koshi was either town or mafia, I suspect it is more likely if he were mafia.

Because of these reasons, I think there's a good chance that Koshi is actually scum, and we got really lucky with the RNG.

Just for now
##Vote: Koshi

I will be up for a bit more reading through posts. I would like to think about it a bit more before leaving for the night with a read that came from RNG.

On October 04 2013 12:35 Chairman Ray wrote:
Hey I'm back now, and I did a quick read through the thread. Definitely impressed by all the reads and information people have been giving. You guys are definitely carrying me here .

Anyways, my personal opinion, I think it's best to go after people that have a possibility to be on a scumteam with SnB. If we can get rid of one scumteam, then the KP goes down. Reading through the filters, I think the strongest disconnect with SnB is probably Palmer. For this reason, even though Palmer might be a good lynch candidate, I wouldn't vote him myself just because I want to get rid of SnB's scumteam first.

After a quick analysis, I don't think that there's much of a chance that VA and FT are on the same scumteam, and Palmer and FT are on the same scumteam either. There's a weak disconnect between VA and palmer, but that can go either way. So using the four people - VA, SnB, FT, and Palm, I will try to see if I can map out their alliance.

Scenario A
Scumteam: SnB, VA
FT and Palmer cannot occupy third spot, and they are also disconnected, so one must be other scumteam, one must be town

Scenario B
Scumteam: SnB, FT
VA and Palmer cannot occupy third spot. They can both be other scumteam, or one of the is scum, one is town.

Among the three people VA, FT, and Palmer, here's the information that we will get from lynching them:
VA - If he flips scum with SnB, then either FT or Palmer must be town. If he flips opposite scum, then FT is likely scum, or else both FT and Palmer are town. If he flips town, then FT and Palmer can be scum on opposite teams, or one is scum, one is town.
FT - If he flips scum with SnB, then out of VA and palmer, one or both is on the other scumteam. If he flips other scumteam, then, Palmer is town, and VA is can either be town or scum with SnB, more likely scum with SnB. If he flips town, then we don't know much about Palmer and VA.
Palmer - I don't want to lynch him, but if he flips other scumteam, then it doesn't say much about VA and FT, and if he flips town, it doesn't say much either.

There's also solstice, which some people are pushing to vote. I think the only disconnect that can even be drawn with him is with Palmer, but it's not a very strong one. I also doubt he's gonna be lynched today, so there isn't much of a point trying to piece him in. I will do that tomorrow.

Right now, I think I'm gonna put my vote on FT since there isn't that big a benefit lynching VA over him, and plus, I wanna save Palmer.

##Vote: FirmTofu