On October 06 2013 05:00 austinmcc wrote:Okay. Some thoughts in case I get double-stacked. Koshi/VE/Rayn town means 8 unknowns. Of those 8 unknown, 4 are mafia. For every townie, you can remove yourself, you're looking at 3 townies/4 mafia remaining. 1 mafia flying solo now, one full team.
I eliminate myself.
PandainI eliminate Pandain, you can see why in my filter, but overall it's the effort and the push just to try and save a townie. IF VA flips mafia, look at Pandain and see whether you think he's town or bussing, but I think anyone who pushes super hard to lynch Pandain without knowing whether VA is mafia or not is RIDIKKEROUS/mafia.
+ Show Spoiler +Anyone who pushes Pandain RIGHT NOW is saying he's mafia, putting on a big show, trying to get town points for saving a townie (WITHIN THIS GAME). But here's the thing, what they're NOT saying is that he tried to push the lynch on VA. He didn't just say "Don't lynch FT." He ALSO said "lynch VA." THIS IS IMPORTANT. Anyone who doesn't mention this, doesn't factor this in, isn't really viewing Pandain fully. Just consider this, would your read on Pandain change based on VA's flip? If so, if you think Pandain fits the full team remaining, then VA flipping scum would mean Pandain probably HARD bussing VA, actively pushing him for lynch. I don't like that scenario.
So more than just generally thinking Pandain is town for his D3 play, I think that a push on Pandain is crappy/somewhat suspicious if people aren't looking at VA as well. ESPECIALLY anyone scummy on VA but also pushing Pandain, if anyone fits that bill (I haven't checked right now), then they are VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY SCUMMY. Look at all those very-s.
So for me,
Pandain.
Great. Now we're down to 2/4.
OatsOats is sitting on his ass doing next-to-nothing. He's EITHER mafia or sweet sweet mislynch material. But the line between the two is thin. Both sides are legitimate. Don't lynch him tomorrow, please please please. I'm assuming at this point that, either way, he doesn't redeem himself. I both still have him on the slightly townie side of the line because of his posting AND think that if you ask yourself, WWMD, oats is a prime prime prime mislynch target.
Make them work for a mislynch. Pull the rug out, make them find someone else, someone that hasn't been primed with bits and bits of suspicion and who can be argued about. It's way too easy to call oats mafia right now. IF oats is town, force mafia to work at getting someone else lynched. If he's mafia, there are 4 of em, find another on.
Oats too cheery and too playful with Palmar on D1 to be on that team. Cheesecake's post was BUTT because IF oats is town, that's exactly what mafia needs to do. Point to all the times oats utters the word "Palmar", without adding any context, and without realizing that HOLY CRAP THAT'S A LOT OF MENTIONS AND A LOT OF DIRECT ASSOCIATION AND MAYBE THIS IS NOT A TEAM. I think it's low-hanging fruit that, when picked, tastes like poopoo fruit. And cheesecake picked that poopoo fruit and tried to feed it to you. Don't eat the poopoo fruit. Oats probably town, maybe mafia, but overall just not what should happen TOMORROW, and not on Palmar's team.
If ANYTHING, oats's posts on D1 if he's mafia show he's other team, because of how he's goading Palmar and rayn into flinging shit at each other. Neither on his team, he doesn't care, lynch either of em or get em to argue, no skin off his back. Just keep fanning the flames between em and enjoy. If he's mafia, he's non-Palmar.
And really, he's got some townie-minded posts, he says throwaway crap like this:
Show nested quote +On October 05 2013 03:30 Oatsmaster wrote:
Yo! Im not scum.
I Still kinda wanna lynch CR for being so totally clean with his posts and saying a lotta weird shit inside.
he's town on my list.
*********HEY HEY IF I DIE AND THEN OATS DIES AND HE IS TOWN YOU NEED TO REMEMBER THIS POST. OATS, IF TOWN, = EASY MISLYNCH. LOOK FOR THE PEOPLE THAT ALL OF A SUDDEN START PUSHING HIM AND MAYBE AVOIDING OTHER PEOPLE YOU'VE SEEN FLIP MAFIA************
Down to 1/4
WoSEveryone is reading his posts overnight and going "So town." Yeah, they look townie. But he's played an entire game, not just tonight. Look at his Palmar read. Look at his actions right before the Palmar lynch.
He can't read Palmar. Over and over and over can't read can't read. Except he DOES have these weak leanings, when really pushed he'll say think town, thought town now a little scummier, etc. etc. It's not that he can't read Palmar, it's a mix of "I'm not good at Palmar, but here's what I think, but maybe I'm wrong, who knows, not gonna bother, etc. etc. etc." It's a scummy way of dealing with a read on Palmar.
And AT lynch time, he's calling Palmar scum but trying to shunt the lynch away. Again, I don't care how townie he looks right now. That is scummy scummyumpkins.
However, here's the deal. I like him way more as THIRD SCUM than I do as other team. I think? So DO NOT LYNCH HIM TOMORROW IF I DIE. If he's not third scum, he suddenly looks a good bit less scummy (I think!? Other team still probably doesn't want Palmar lynched if they can help it). Don't go for him tomorrow. If you find third scum, re-evaluate. Make him keep working.
CROh yeah lynch this dude tomorrow. He's not been newbie. He's been near useless, despite getting lynched for contributions in other game that people found scummy. His posts all avoid direct scumhunting. He never casually posts.
Lynch this dude. Lynch him.
I RAN OUT OF TIME BOLLOCKS.
If Oats town, cheese scum. That one post does it.
SOME OTHER PEOPLE ARE ALSO SCUM
THIS POST SUCKS SO MUCH AS A LAST MINUTE POST WTF