Thug Life Mini Mafia - Page 156

On October 03 2013 20:31 Palmar wrote:


I'm going to explain step to step why it's highly improbable that your theory is right. I'm starting at this votecount

For the sake of the argument we're assuming scumPalmar.

1. The vote stands at 5-5, Firmtofu is set to be lynched
2. s0lstice comes in and puts shiaopi at 6-5, making him the prime lynch candidate

At this point I'm back in the thread. I have basically two options, run with the wagon on shiaopi, or put my vote on FT, I go with the latter

3. I even up the vote, with shiaopi still up for the lynch at 6-6
4. rayn comes in, unvotes shiaopi and votes FT, making it 7-5 in favor of FT, making him the lynch candidate.

In order for me to have a viable excuse for switching, it requires me to predict that if FT is going to be lynched, it's going to be rayn that makes the first voteswitch. This is important as he's the ONLY person in the game I can legitimately claim to just not wanting to agree with.

5. I switch to shiaopi, putting them back at 6-6 with FT still the lynch candidate

Again, I have to predict that not only rayn provides me with a reasonable excuse to make the switch, but also that someone else would come in and hammer SP. Of course, you can assume this third person is my teammate (that'd be you or vayne), or that I just got lucky.

6. SP is hammered bay vayne. then you vote him.

The problem with your theory is that it requires way too much set-up and prediction ability by me for it to work. It relies on two people behaving in a specific way (rayn to switch, vayne to hammer) for it to work, and because the presumption is that FT is on my team, I can at maximum co-ordinate with one of them.